Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,498

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Giolito - Fastball, Changeup, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches. Montas - Fastball, Splitter, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches. Morton - Fastball, Splitter, Slider, Curve. 4 pitches. Ray - Fastball, Slider, Curveball Changeup. 4 pitches. I suppose I could give credit to Berrios having 4 pitches if I throw his sinker in there, but it's really just a slightly different fastball and most of the pitchers listed above also have a sinker. The splitter is offspeed from a 4 seamer or sinker. The reason starters generally need at least 3 breaking/off speed options, plus the fastball is because breaking pitches aren't generally as effective against RH and LH hitters. Pitchers generally need at least 3 pitches they can throw effectively against RH and LH hitters which is why true 3 pitch pitchers are generally back end of the rotation or bullpen arms.
  2. bean5302
    List a few. Berrios. There. That's the entire list. 3 pitch pitchers are usually seen as borderline starters/relievers unless they have a plus-plus offering. Which Berrios does. What sets Berrios apart is he has multiple plus or plus-plus offerings.
  3. bean5302
    What makes you feel like Balazovic is the best pitching prospect? I guess he's technically ranked the highest, but Wes Johnson was pretty clear he has modest expectations for Balazovic. I think a lot of that is based on Balazovic only having 3 pitches which typically puts a ceiling at #3. Anyway, I don't think there is a prospect in the Twins' system with a higher upside or more riding on him right now than Lewis. Add to that Lewis was a #1 overall pick and he plays a premium position. If Lewis could play up to his athletic skills limits, you're talking about an potential MVP caliber player. If he can't improve on his performance at the plate in AA, he's not MLB caliber at all. That's a huge pivot.
  4. bean5302
    I don't think it matters who we have playing shortstop since the Twins balk at pitcher contracts of more than 4 years or $100MM. In any normal free agency year, pitchers the Twins would really benefit from signing will require at least 5 or more years. Having a 5+ year contract means the pitcher wouldn't really care too much about your next season shortstop. I think it's very aggressive to expect to see Lewis before September. I'm not sure why the Twins would sign a veteran shortstop with no pitching staff, but they've done weirder things.
  5. bean5302
    A bit. The Canada tax would be 54%. In MN 46%. In CA 49%.
  6. bean5302
    The Twins made no obvious efforts to sign any significant pitcher or shortstop so far this offseason and both categories of players were flying off the board. It really doesn't make a lot of sense for them to wait before making these types of signings, especially with the owners proposing a salary floor if they were intending on building this year. Buxton is a semi-notable signing since he's only making $9MM next year. I think it's very clear at this point, based on the Twins' moves and non-moves they're planning on tanking in 2022.
  7. bean5302
    Did you not read my post? Like, seriously? Pittsburgh went to the playoffs in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Other than Seattle, I think Detroit has the longest playoff drought (2014). FACTS: Last 12 years, despite having 40% more teams which make the playoffs and more teams who could (32 vs 30), only 26 NFL teams have made the playoffs. 28 MLB teams have made the playoffs in the same span (I actually think I miscounted and only Seattle hasn't). That means, year in, year out, there is more turnover in playoff teams in MLB than the NFL.
  8. bean5302
    The fans are definitely going to hate Major League Baseball as a whole if the lockout drags on and games or spring training gets canceled. That's why I say Manfred's letter is nonsensical. It doesn't actually accomplish anything except making negotiations tougher, haha.
  9. bean5302
    Bundy was signed as a starter, I don't doubt that at all. Year(s) Started Quality Bad Start Blowout Vel 2016* 13 3 5 5 94.5 2017 28 19 8 6 92.2 2018 31 15 12 11 91.7 2019 30 10 10 6 91.2 2020 11 6 2 2 90.1 2021 19 6 10 7 90.8 *2016 I used all his starts with 87 or more pitches when it looked like his performance, rather than pitch counts were limiting him to under 6.0 IP. Bad Start = game started, left with ERA over 6.00. Blowout = game started, left with ERA over 8.00. Bundy has largely been a sink or swim kind of starter in his career. Never consistently reliable and pretty prone to giving up home runs. Bundy has plenty of starts that last 0-3 innings before he gets chased. Above, @Harrison Greeley III used the first/second/third time through the order for 2021, but it's a super small sample size. Using Bundy's career numbers you get FIPs of All = 4.69, First = 4.63, Second = 4.64, Third 4.84. Bundy is a fine #5 starter, but the Twins don't need a #5.
  10. bean5302
    Sorry, but Manfred's arguments are logical, even if inflammatory. I agree the letter is nonsensical, but not because it's inaccurate. The letter is nonsensical because it will undoubtedly anger the players and make them less interested in resolving the dispute. Equally nonsensical is believing the players are heroes or saints or champions of righteousness fighting for the little guy (fans). Players don't care, at all, about the fans in these negotiations. It's not a knock against them. The MLBPA's job is to secure the best compensation they can from MLB owners and the owners job is to prevent the compensation from exceeding viable team operation.
  11. bean5302
    Bundy is a dumpster dive. The proof is in the contract.
  12. bean5302
    Prestige.
  13. bean5302
    This is false, but common, logic. It's like arguing everybody should be executed at age 41 because Kobe Bryant died at age 41. If Kobe didn't live past 41, nobody should!!!!
  14. bean5302
    The owners proposed reducing the luxury tax to $180MM and creating a $100MM floor back in September and are still pushing for it. No team in baseball has ever hit a $300MM payroll. The Dodgers in 2015 hit $273MM. Next highest is again, the Dodgers in 2017 at $242MM. In most years, the top team is around $220MM. Side note... you believe the NFL is more competitive than MLB? Number of teams in the World Series since 2010 = 14 of 30 (47%) Number of teams in the Super Bowl since 2010 = 15 of 32 (47%) World Series since 2000 = 21 of 30 (70%) Super Bowl since 2000 = 21 of 32 (66%) Number of teams in MLB playoffs since 2010 = 28 of 30 (93%) Number of teams in NFL playoffs since 2010 = 26 of 32 (81%) Despite having 2 more teams in the league and 4 more playoff teams every year, fewer NFL teams have made the playoffs in since 2010 and the same percentage of their teams have made it to the championship game.
  15. bean5302
    The small market teams are making a fortune gaming the revenue sharing system. It's not that any team in baseball can't afford a competitive payroll, it's just more profitable for some teams to intentionally keep payroll and revenue low while collecting revenue sharing.
  16. bean5302
    I have no idea how things will play out or how quickly the players might break or how quickly MLB owners might break because there are so many complexities. That said, if MLB were to actually able to move forward with MiLB replacement players, I think the MLBPA would be broken in short order just like the NFL owners broke the NFLPA fast and easy with replacement players. Fans come to the games to see their team, not the specific players on the team and I've seen/heard no credible evidence to the contrary. Once fans start attending games, the MLBPA loses an absolutely dramatic amount of leverage.
  17. bean5302
    Nobody was okay with the losses from the strike and the strike was not successful. It was a disaster for players and owners alike. Year Min Salary Ann. Increase Avg Salary Ann. Increase 1967 6000 19000 1970 12000 26% 29303 16% 1975 16000 6% 44676 9% 1980 30000 13% 143676 26% 1985 60000 15% 371157 21% 1990 100000 11% 597537 10% 1995 109000 2% 1110766 13% 2000 200000 13% 1895630 11% 2005 316000 10% 2476589 5% 2010 400000 5% 3014572 4% 2015 507500 5% 3952252 6%
  18. bean5302
    Manfred's letter sucks because it's obviously trying to tilt public opinion... but that doesn't help owners or players. All it does is stoke the fire of anger in fans. An angry fan base blaming the players or owners is irrelevant because when fans are angry, they quit following the sport. They stop going to the games. They stop spending their money. It doesn't matter who the fans are protesting when the revenue stream dries up.
  19. bean5302
    Sure. It's possible the Twins could be Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic on opening day. 3 question marks and two back end rotation options.
  20. bean5302
    Okay, how come the Twins didn't sign Stroman at 4/$95MM? Stroman was signed for a STEAL. It shows the Twins had every opportunity, should they have taken it, to sign a very good pitcher for multiple years at or above what the market paid. Arguing maybe the Twins didn't have time to come back with 3yrs and 70,000,000.01 is ridiculous. Even had the Twins spend far more than that, Stroman would still have been a bargain.
  21. bean5302
    The Twins couldn't get Stroman at 3 years and $71MM? Seriously... like, I can't wrap my head around this one. Stroman and Rodriguez both look like steals.
  22. bean5302
    Lets hope the Twins are able to find some lost velocity or some lost skill.
  23. bean5302
    He pitched in 4 games last season. His velocity was over 95mph and his swinging strike rate was above his career average. He had control and was throwing first pitch strikes. Give the Yankees a smidge of credit; their front office isn't manned by complete morons. Having more than 1 top rotation starter is allowed in MLB.
  24. bean5302
    A fun exercise. I'm not sure how accurate it is and I struggle to believe a .779 OPS would get anybody an MVP award in reality. Also, while you say $191.9MM is close to double Buxton's contract, that's not true. If Buxton wins an MVP with 574+ plate appearances, he'd have made $15 + $8 + $1.5 = $24.5MM. Since I'm not sure if he was garnering MVP votes in 2022-2024 or how many plate appearances he was having, it could make a big difference on his contract's value. Assuming the same number of plate appearances as 2025, and assuming his similar WAR resulted in say, #5 in MVP voting in those years, his contract would have been. 2022 - $15.5MM ($9 + $1 + $4 + $1.5) 2023 - $21.5MM ($15MM + 5MM + $1.5MM) 2024 - $21.5MM ($15MM + 5MM + $1.5MM) 2025 - $24.5MM ($15MM + 8MM + $1.5MM) 2026 - $15.0MM 2027 - $15.0MM 2028 - $15.0MM Total = $143MM vs. value = $191.9MM I think most people, including myself, would be happy with Buxton performing at the level shown in the video game.
  25. bean5302
    Celestino will be 23 at the start of the season and he hit well at AAA across 211 plate appearances. Backing up Buxton could be viewed as sitting on the bench and playing every once in a while or I view it as when Buxton gets hurt and goes down for an extended time, that's when Celestino takes his place. I don't know as any amount of raking at AAA guarantees success at MLB because AAA pitchers don't necessarily expose the same weaknesses as MLB pitchers will. I think the question of whether or not Celestino is ready for MLB will be settled at the MLB level. He's proven he was able to adapt to AAA pitching and that's all we learned.
×
×
  • Create New...