bean5302

I'm not sure that's true. The players I think the lockout hurts most are those on the fringe. The 40 man guys who cannot play or get a shot in the MLB. Meanwhile, the minor league players can continue to advance and those appearantly fringey guys may never get their chance at the big show as a result.

I disagree with that take on Rooker.

I have to... that video... did that guy ever hear about leg day? LOL!!!!

Levi Michael was far, far superior to Cavaco in his MiLB performance. I thought Michael was going to be taken in the rule 5 when he was left exposed in 2015 after his .804 OPS performance in AA. I don't think Michael was too far off from some MLB appearances with the Mets in 2018.

Cavaco is half a season from being declared a total bust and I think he could be released at the end of this year. Enlow and Lewis were both protected, and that should tell folks all they need to know about how they're viewed. Lewis and Enlow have been severely hampered by injuries, but even so, they're viewed as high end prospects.

While both sides certainly have their faults, owners especially for what I feel is inflaming tensions prior to the start of the negotiations and the asinine full team control until age 29.5 first offer back in September, since then, in my opinion, it's been almost all the MLBPA throwing a temper tantrum.

The MLBPA didn't counter-propose either. They left a one penny tip on a $20 bill. It was a direct insult.

I wonder how minor league signings for MLB veterans works in regard to the MLBPA? If owners went ahead with replacement players, Beckham isn't technically represented by the MLBPA right now is he? Not sure exactly how that works.

Winder was highly scouted but lost velocity in his sophomore year at VMI. It resulted in him falling way down the draft ranks and the Twins picked him up in the 7th round. Most scouting reports on Winder are from draft time. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/josh-winder-comes-on-strong-at-instructs/ Since then, Winder has added 5mph to his fastball and improved his changeup due to the increased velocity alone. Plus his breaking pitches have supposedly gotten better. Winder could have 3 plus pitches at this point, and that's top of the rotation potential.

Kepler has nothing to prove. He's an average starting right fielder right now who is cheap, and that's valuable enough to keep a job. If Kepler stumbles further this year, his value will drop off so in that regard, he doesn't have a lot of wiggle room. That said, Kepler needs two consecutive years of increased performance against the shift and to regain a step in sprint speed to elevate himself to being viewed as All Star caliber again. An improvement just this year will be met with skeptisicm.

The casual fan doesn't even realize there's a lockout. Most people don't care about baseball (other than big name moves) until Spring Training officially starts. This lockout won't make even one iota of impact for the vast majority of casual fans of the game. At least that's my opinion.

Sabato played in 2019, 2020 and 2021. His last game in 2020 was on 3/11/20 with North Carolina vs. Virginia Military Institute and the rest of the season was canceled. His first game in 2021 was 5/4/21 and Sabato participated in MiLB Spring Training. There's a 1 year and not quite 2 month gap there, but Sabato also participated in MiLB Spring Training activities before that. If you're talking about missing time prior to 2019, I struggle to see how that's relevant in 2021. In the linked article, Sabato talks about his plate approach. "Sabato: “It’s hunting mistakes and strikes. You don’t want to swing at the pitcher’s best pitches. That goes for any hitter. You’re not going to be successful doing that. For me, it’s being patient, yet not too patient. I can’t be not swinging it fastballs that are in my hot zone, so it’s about being prepared on every pitch, knowing that if a mistake is coming, I’m ready for it. That and being disciplined enough to lay off certain pitches that might be a strike, but aren’t something I’m going to be able to do a whole lot with.”" https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-prospect-aaron-sabato-on-mashing-and-hopefully-not-dhing/ Sabato planning to not swing at strikes and waiting for mistake pitches doesn't seem like a recipe for success to me since, as I stated above, I believe those become far less frequent as batters progress through the minors. .189/.365/.357 at Low A for a 22 year old college-drafted bat only slugger is abysmal. Sabato performed far better at High A across 97 plate appearances with a .253/.402/.613 line to give some hope, but that stat line from Fort Myers doesn't just disappear. The 20% walk rate is nice, but unsustainable with a K rate in excess of 20% IMHO (and Sabato is north of 30%). Sabato admits he's a poor runner and it's clear 1B or DH is how he's viewed. 6'2" and 230lbs, Sabato claims he's leaner than he was when he was playing shortstop, but the height and weight would suggest extremely high athleticism (fast runner) if he actually was well conditioned. I've seen the "I'm not overweight, I'm athletic" line from Twins prospects and players before. It makes me skeptical and his own comments and scouts add to my skepticism. 6'2 and 230lbs = NFL Fullback. Fournette (6'1 and 228) was clocked at 33ft/sec during a 90 yard run... in pads. That's faster than Byron Buxton's listed sprint speed. The Twins also view Sabato as a 1B / DH only candidate from my understanding. If he was athletic and had SS skills, the Twins would at least be working him out at 3B. As much as you may personally like Sabato, his comments, apparent plate approach, apparent lack of conditioning and poor results at Low-A paint good reasons to be a bit bearish on him.

It would benefit Houston's MLB team. It would benefit Houston's prospect system. It would benefit Jake Odorizzi because he's guaranteed to pitch no matter how badly he performs. Those are 3 sides. Conversely. It would hurt Minnesota's prospect system It would hurt Minnesota's MLB team because Winder, Balazovic, Ober and Ryan are all better than Odorizzi It would hurt Minnesota's payroll because we'd be paying a player we don't want on the team.

There are red flags all over the place with Sabato. Had his results not improved dramatically to close the year out, I would have been okay with writing him off as bust. I think it's rare a successful MLB player struggles in the low minors and Sabato's plate approach is passive. He waits for mistake pitches and crushes them. Unfortunately for him, mistake pitches generally become fewer and fewer as you move up the minors. I think he'll be exposed badly in AA or AAA as the pitcher talent level jumps dramatically and their control and finesse take a leap up as well, but I think he did enough damage to close the year out to keep an eye on him. It's not like it matters, though. He doesn't need a 40 man roster spot right now so there's no risk to letting him play.

The most infuriating thing about Sano is, just like Rosario, he could be a plus defender.

I disagree Sano was always expected to move to DH. The narrative on him has continuously changed. 2010-2011 = probably going to have to move off SS to 3B as he fills out 2015-2016 = Stud 3B for the foreseeable future as he was super athletic, had a cannon arm and great reflexes. 2017 = Adequate 3B, but his bat more than makes up for it! 2018 = Probably moving to first base after Joe Mauer retires due to declining defense. 2020 = Thank goodness Mauer retired so we can get Sano off 3B and over to 1B where even his athleticism will play for the foreseeable future 2022 = He was always expected to be a DH anyway! I'm not the one who invented UZR/150 so don't blow this off as my personal opinion. This is a list of the worst first baseman in baseball each year and how bad they were by UZR/150. Many people have watched Moneyball and heard "defense doesn't matter" at first base because it's rare a player struggles at first base so much that it actually makes any significant impact on a game. i.e. +/- 5 for UZR/150 isn't particularly signifcant. I submit, for your viewing pleasure just how horrible Miguel Sano was. -38.4 UZR/150 is unheard of. 43% worse than any other starting first baseman in the stat's history. More than that, Sano was also the worst first baseman in baseball in 2020 as well. Again, a first in the stat's history where a player has not only been the worst first baseman in baseball once, but twice. In Sano's case, back to back years. It's not some abberation. Sano is a horrible defender. From a player who was considered a stud 3B to a guy who is the worst first baseman in MLB history it's pretty easy to draw the conclusion the guy just doesn't even care. Year Player Team Innings UZR/150 2021 Miguel Sano MIN 996 -38.4 2008 Mike Jacobs FLA 927.1 -26.8 2015 Pedro Alvarez PIT 906.1 -23.1 2005 Adam LaRoche ATL 1019.1 -20.8 2007 Richie Sexson SEA 991.2 -17.1 2019 Josh Bell PIT 1160.2 -16.4 2010 Paul Konerko CHW 1102.1 -15.3 2020 Miguel Sano MIN 423.1 -15.3 2002 Mo Vaughn NY 1124.2 -14.1 2011 Freddie Freeman ATL 1370.1 -13.4 2006 Prince Fielder 1319.1 -12.3 2012 Eric Hosmer KCR 1277 -10.9 2004 Rafael Palmeiro BAL 1137.2 -10.2 2009 Nick Johnson - - - 1067 -9.9 2003 Carlos Pena DET 1094.2 -9.8 2017 Danny Valencia SEA 984 -9.4 2018 Jose Abreu CHW 999.2 -8.5 2016 Chris Carter - - - 1338 -5.0 2013 Justin Smoak SEA 1084.1 -4.2 2014 Ryan Howard PHI 1256.1 -3.5 Then there was the argument about how long it's been since the Twins had a good first baseman. You'd have to go all the way back to... Joe Mauer, who was the best first baseman in all of baseball by UZR/150 in 2017 and again among the best in 2018, his final year. In 2019, C.J. Cron was average at the position.

It's funny the impact an clickbait style headline makes on interaction From October From a week ago

Sano Donaldson Kirilloff Rooker I would certainly think at least 1 of those 4 will be moved. None of them are decent candidates to spend time in the minors, none of them have great defensive value anymore. I don't think there's too much question Sano is further down the depth chart than Kirilloff at this point. Sano melted the faces off defenseive coaches last year with a mind numbing, inconceivable -38.4 UZR/150 in 996 innings. They only asked Sano to cover third for 37 innings so the SSS factor is huge, but still... he posted a comic strip punchline -159.1 UZR/150. Over the course of a year at that 3B rate, Miguel Sano would be -15 WAR from defensive contribution only. Basically offsetting the two best players in baseball just with defense gaffs. Simply put, Sano is a beer league softball player when it comes to defensive skill at this point. When it comes to his bat, Sano isn't as bad. I disagree with any attempt to paint Sano as a valuable full time hitter, though. I'm not sure you can classify Sano as "streaky" either. He spends very long periods of time looking completely inept at the plate, followed by long periods where he's good enough to start at DH by basic stats alone, but it's not just Sano's streaks, it's the fact he's often an automatic out (slider, down and away = strike 3) whenever the opposing team really needs it. That's why Sano's WPA is consistently negative. When the Twins need him, he can't produce. All that said, there's nothing new about Sano here except the truly exceptionally embarrassing defense from somebody who once looked like a total stud. The Twins are probably stuck with Sano. Maybe another team will take him just based on how he performed in the second half, but I don't know about that. I think the Twins are looking to move Donaldson or Rooker at their earliest convenience.

I didn't like WPA much at first, but after investigating, I came around to value it far higher. The logic and implementation is sound. Unfortunately for your position, statisticians who are paid to actually know what they're talking about continue to advocate for the WPA and have offered strong correlations across WAR and great players.

No. It is not positively weighted for relief pitchers. It's weighted for plays which impact the outcome of the game one way or the other and it's why Miguel Sano keeps posting negative WPAs despite having positive WAR. Miguel Sano is an easy out when the game is on the line and other teams can employ strategy to effect the outcome of the game. If the Twins are down 12-1 and nobody is on base, a team isn't going to care who is pitching to Miguel Sano or whether they have a slider they can throw down and away. WPA is built on comparing players to averages. What is the average likelihood this play results in a positive outcome? It doesn't care if Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera or Kevin Slowey is on the mound. Because Mariano Rivera was pitching when he was pitching (high leverage), the Yankees won far more games than the cumulative WAR would suggest. Rivera made pitches when it mattered the most. Also, Jack Morris is in the Hall of Fame because of perceived WPA, even though the arguments about his fake WPA have actually been debunked. The idea he regularly pitched up to or down to the competition and situation (Minnesota Vikings Syndrome)

I don't exactly agree with your line of thinking. If things went the way you suggest, there would be positions in the game wholly and totally unrepresented in the Hall of Fame. Some of the best of the best at what they were asked to do and whether or not they helped their teams win wouldn't be seen. So when Atlanta moved Hall of Famer John Smoltz to the bullpen he wasn't good enough to be a starter? Of course, Atlanta later recognized that mistake and moved him back into the rotation where he, again, dominated. You're going to tell me Trevor May wasn't good enough to be a starter when he was with the Twins? He certainly was. He was just better suited to dominate in the bullpen and the Twins had a bunch of arms logjamming the rotation. While many middle relievers fall into the mold of what you're saying... even some closers or setup guys, the main reason closers are in their position is they are dominant in a position which is incredibly valuable. Do you know who has the highest WPA of any pitcher in MLB by 18% from 1999-2014? Mariano Rivera. A reliever who wasn't any better than Joe Nathan was at Nathan's peak. While you may disagree and say getting the first batter in the game out is the same as getting the last batter out with the bases loaded and a 1 run lead is the same, I respectfully disagree as do a lot of people who have spend a lot of time and effort trying to figure out how to win baseball games. Here's how WPA looks for pitchers with 700+ IP from 1999-2014 Mariano Rivera (HoF) Roy Halladay (HoF) Pedro Martinez (HoF) JOE NATHAN Tim Hudson Randy Johnson (HoF) Johan Santana Billy Wagner (probable future HoF) Roy Oswalt Curt Schilling (probable future HoF, veterans) Felix Hernandez Clayton Kershaw (future HoF) Francisco Rodriguez CC Sabathia (probable future HoF) John Smoltz (HoF)

Kenda Maeda gave a quote/interview in Tokyo a couple weeks ago. This year looks unlikely for him. https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220107/p2g/00m/0sp/057000c

So what if teams eat bad contracts and accept prospects and draft picks (competitive balance) to fill out their payroll? It accomplishes the rebuild faster, creates more opportunity for the veteran players, increases total spending and there's a chance the reclaimation/bad contract project has a rebound year and helps competitive play. I read it as a hard floor so far.

Hall of Needs a New Method of Election.

Neither Sands nor Woods-Richardson are bullpen candidates right now. Chase Petty and Jordan Balazovic are much more likely to shift to the bullpen than Sands or Woods-Richardson in my opinion, not that I'd label either one of those guys as "destined for the bullpen."