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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I don't think they're particularly similar except they play corner OF and they're left handed. Larnach is a 27 year old line drive hitter with moderate game power who's weak against everything other than the 4 seamer or curveball. He's constantly hurt and lacks the athleticism to be a plus value defender, but his excellent baseball IQ/instincts have allowed him to adequately cover LF. He's a career wRC+96 hitter in 693 PA across 3 seasons while never projecting higher than about a 1.5-2.0 WAR full time player. Waller is a 26 year old home run hitting elite power bat with no glaring weaknesses against particular pitches. In 352 PA he owns a wRC+ of 129. While he has far more speed and athleticism than Larnach, Wallner lacks the instincts and has often looked awkward in the outfield. Wallner has proven to be pretty durable, logging over 550-600+ PA the past two seasons between MiLB and MLB. Last year, in 254 PA, he projected as a near All Star caliber producer, a guy in that 3.5 WAR full season range. Basically, a better producer than a typical Max Kepler season.
  2. bean5302
    Bolded numbers are not even emergency depth MLB caliber. 4/15 - 7.20 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 2.82 xFIP, Exit Velo 96.2, 2.20 WHIP, 22.2% K, 0.0% BB 4/9 - 10.80 ERA, 7.82 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, Exit Velo 90.6, 2.00 WHIP, 25.0% K, 12.5% BB 4/2 - 6.75 ERA, 6.72 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, Exit Velo 86.9, 2.00 WHIP, 19.0% K, 9.5% BB Some general guidelines: Upper rotation, Exit Velo 0.0-87.9mph, 0.00-1.10 WHIP, 26.0%+ K, 0.0-6.0% BB Middle rotation, Exit Velo 88.0-89.9mph, 1.11-1.25 WHIP, 20.0%-25.9% K, 6.1%-8.9% BB Back end rotation, Exit Velo 90.0-90.9mph, 1.26-1.35 WHIP, 18.0%-19.9% K, 9.0%-10.5% BB AAAA/Emergency, Exit Velo 91.0-92.9mph, 1.36-1.50 WHIP, 0.0%-17.9% K, 10.6%+ BB Varland has given up a lot of big hits, and he's had real issues with issuing free passes. When he limited the free passes against Baltimore, they destroyed him. He is clearly not looking like an MLB caliber rotation arm. Not even for a depth option.
  3. bean5302
    I'm a big fan of Wallner and I think he has what it takes to be a force at the plate over the long haul, but I think he's lost his confidence. He's had some real BS calls go against him, and he was already struggling to begin with. He honestly looks like a bit like a deer in the headlights sometimes at this point, unable to make decisions. Many good MLB hitters have holes at the plate (I mean, if you're not named Barry Bonds or Mike Trout). Wallner's had 33 pretty sporadic plate appearances thanks to Rocco Baldelli, Platoon Mastermind, but Wallner's issues stretch back into Spring Training. Wallner stands practically over the top of the plate, which is great for HBP fueled OBP, but lousy for him being able to drive inside pitches. He's missed on a few balls right down the middle, which is not typical for him. That's stuff he always swung at and always punished last year. I'm not sure if he can just back off the friggen plate by 2" and make the inside pitches more into heart of the plate pitches, but I can't imagine it could hurt him. MLB won't wait for him to get his head back on straight and get the short memory skill he needs to acquire, and Baldelli doesn't have any faith in him so he's between a rock and a hard place.
  4. bean5302
    Statistics say Nick Gordon seems to be a perfectly acceptable backup utility infielder/outfielder based on actual results, and he's cheap. The price you want for a backup utility infielder when the team is on a tight budget. Your response "statistics, logics, facts, and reason do not matter to me because they do not match my opinion!"
  5. bean5302
    With Buxton being a streaky hitter and SSS issues from being injured, he's going to put up some big numbers some seasons. I think his line from 2019-2024 current is probably a pretty good picture of who Buxton is at the plate. 1463 PA, 7.1% BB, 28.0% K, .244/.308/.520 OPS .828 wRC+ 123. Still a very valuable player. When he's not putting up MVP caliber numbers, I think people assume it's because he's hurt or he's slumping or whatever. He's just not an MVP caliber hitter because he doesn't get on base. He's 30 years old, starting his decline, and in his 10th MLB season. In any case, Buxton's full NTC expires at the end of 2026. It may be interesting to see what happens at that point.
  6. bean5302
    I just can't grasp the mind-bending confidence fans have in Levi Michael... I mean, Brooks Lee.
  7. bean5302
    Falvey's front office was given a budget, he squandered it. There were a lot of options to shore up the rotation on the cheap this year, and there were much better bats than Santana available as well. Can't hold the ownership responsible for a front office which can't budget appropriately. Payroll vs. attendance. 2022 - $149MM (16th), 22.2k/game (20th) 2023 - $156MM (16th), 24.3k/game (19th) 2024 - $130MM (19th), 22.4k/game (23rd) Attendance has been similar to 2001-2004 at the Metrodome. The Twins had the 2nd least expensive average ticket price in baseball last year. The Twins had Kepler, Farmer, Polanco and Vazquez to potentially cut payroll and make room for new players. If the front office has to move prospects along with the players to improve the roster, then that's on the ownership. It's the front office's job to try and be competitive with the budget they're given. The 2024 Twins payroll is higher than several of the playoff teams from 2023: Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Brewers. The front office was given a sufficient payroll to be compete, and a payroll rank once again higher than attendance rank.
  8. bean5302
    Really? Why was the he opening day 2B for the Twins last year? Graded out neutral at SS/2B for his career. OAA, UZR/150, whatever metric you like.
  9. bean5302
    I don't think they do/will. If Varland gets bumped, it's because he's not effective as an MLB starter. No reason to keep him stretched out with Sands, Headrick, and Dobnak (pitching well so far) in the system.
  10. bean5302
    Note: Bailey Ober #1 starter last year would have been legit for a short period... if Maeda wasn't in the rotation as well. Ober vs. Maeda (after IL) last 6 starts through 7/24/23 2.92 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 4.20 xFIP Ober vs. 2.48 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 3.34 xFIP Maeda
  11. bean5302
    I absolutely agree with @jorgenswest. I'd have kept Gordon over Farmer/Margot and it's not remotely close. Gordon's batted ball profile suggested he certainly wasn't great in the SSS, but he was quite unlucky in his brief 2023 stint. wRC+ 119 is just about exactly where Gordon was in 2022 (111). Saving $9MM by keeping Gordon + Martin on the opening day roster vs. Farmer + Margot takes a big chunk out of the cost of improving the rotation, and that's how the front office should have been handling the budget crunch, IMHO. Gordon seems to be at least adequate as a utility guy with a league minimum salary.
  12. bean5302
    Probably at least through June.
  13. bean5302
    Castro owned a wRC+ around 110 last year and had adequate IF defense. Not sure his bat will show back up this year, but there's reason to be optimistic it'll come around. Farmer is a league average hitter with adequate defense. He was brought in to be the Twins starting SS last year, and his track record of adequate 1.5-2.0 full season WAR is long.
  14. bean5302
    Nope. That's why Martin, Farmer, Castro, Severino, Miranda, Kirilloff, and Julien are on the 40 man roster. Even Prato is probably higher on the depth chart for a short stint than Lee. It would have taken 3 major (60 day IL) injuries to see Lee, assuming Lee wasn't also hurt and was actually hitting well at AAA for a change. Considering Correa, and Lewis are on the 10 day IL, absolutely no impact to starting the clock on a guy with a wRC+ of 78 at AAA last year.
  15. bean5302
    I just saw this so I voted for "None of the above." They should just wait for the injuries to take care of the problem... LOL
  16. bean5302
    Varland was always sketchy for effectively holding down a rotation spot. There's a reason he was moved to the bullpen, and the Statcast numbers on Varland were clear. None of his stuff was great. It was adequate for a reliever, but with some reasonable decline moving into the rotation, there should have been concerns. Varland's 4 seamer isn't moving quite as well as last year, and it's been destroyed. I think there's reason to expect a fair amount of rebound, though. When it comes to Woods-Richardson, he's been better than anybody expected this year. The stuff was always potentially there, but the repetition/mechanics/consistency of his delivery was not. Like Varland being moved to the bullpen, there was a reason the Twins targeted SWR in the Berrios exchange. SWR was a legitimate mid-rotation arm prospect so if he's found his groove, I could definitely see him pushing Varland back to the bullpen permanently.
  17. bean5302
    Larnach is just good enough to hold down a spot on a roster for a non-competitive team. He wouldn't clear waivers if the Twins DFA'd him, but he's certainly not going to be a starter on a competitive team. He's not a prospect. He's a LH Kyle Garlick type. I like everything I've heard about Larnach as a hard worker, but he just can't identify breaking and offspeed stuff at the MLB level. I think about it sometimes, how incredibly frustrating it must be. I had a friend who wanted to be an electrical engineer. Really smart guy, absolutely gave 100% on his studies, but he hit a wall in math. He just couldn't keep up with Calc IV and above. It was pretty gut wrenching to watch, and he eventually switched majors to BCIS and Management. I've never had to deal with something like that. It must be 100x worse for a guy like Larnach who is sooooo close, but there's just one item he can't adjust. McCusker reminds me a little of Matt Wallner's profile. Now at AA, McCusker did start taking walks, but I think he's a much longer shot than Wallner since McCusker is 26. I suppose he's a fun dark horse to keep an eye on for a while!
  18. bean5302
    Catching up to the fastball isn't Buxton's only problem. He's been hyper aggressive as well, swinging at 38% of pitches outside the zone and taking 1 measly walk in 50 plate appearances. He's not going to get the best pitches to hit if he keeps swinging at junk. I've never been a fan of Buxton's as a premier player. He's a great full season 5-6 WAR player (which he never makes it a full season), but there have always been major holes in his game. His power heavy approach limits his potential value on the basepaths and his batted ball profile along with his poor walk rates really limits his overall value at the plate. High power, low BB profiles will always be very streaky, like @Bigfork Twins Guy alludes to. It's only 50 PA (83 including Spring Training), but if you include Spring Training, it's clear Buxton was seeing the ball well enough against more limited competition. Buxton's been around long enough to believe he'll come out of the slump soon enough. Wallner is the one I think needs to go to AAA. I'm a huge fan and I believe Wallner's game will play well at MLB, but he's clearly lost every bit of confidence he had, and I think he's let a few bad calls by the umps get into his head. He needs a reset, and a lesson. Keep your head in the game or somebody else will be happy to take your spot.
  19. bean5302
    They actively made the team worse? Falvey did that, not the ownership. Falvey had a budget. $100 for groceries and he spent $95 on scratch offs. The fans didn't show in 2022 or 2023, either when ownership brought in huge free agents and approved trades to acquire front line pitching. How many games did you attend the last two years when the Twins were over $150MM in payroll?
  20. bean5302
    Honestly, the big payroll guy the Twins need the most is Pablo Lopez by a mile
  21. bean5302
    Attendance has become a real problem.
  22. bean5302
    I'm a huge Wallner fan, but he looks like he's totally lost out there. The 2nd inning strikeout was BS. Called 3rd strike was way low. In the bottom of the 5th, Wallner was just a statue taking a pitch right down the middle for strike 3. Ump missed a ball called a strike inside on the 2nd pitch on Wallner again in the 7th. Even though he's getting the shaft seemingly a solid couple times a game, he can't be letting strike three sail by in the dead center of the plate.
  23. bean5302
    Yep. Spring Training stats don't matter. Just as Margo. He went .091/.106/.091 in 47 plate appearances this Spring Training. You seemed to be pretty happy he's been in the lineup in another thread.
  24. bean5302
    What rookies? Austin Martin is literally the only position player on the active roster who hasn't lost rookie status.
  25. bean5302
    I keep up with Berrios throughout the season. He's long past being outside the Twins' original control at this point, but I'm glad to see him rebounding from that awful first full year he had in Toronto. I was never on board with the Berrios is an ace! crowd here, but I always appreciated him for being so solid. I'm sure Toronto is happy they made that contract to him.
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