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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Syndergaard had a 3.32 FIP in the second half and a 3.70 FIP in September. His final game was 7.0 innings, 9 Ks, 5 H, 2 BBs against Atlanta who won the NL East with 97 wins that year. Syndergaard's fastball averaged 97.5mph that game. He was not hurt. He injured himself in Spring Training 2020. Game 1 - 10/4 Syndergaard pitches instead of Berrios Game 2 - 10/5 Berrios pitches instead of Dobnak Game 3 - 10/7 Odorizzi pitches Game 4 - 10/8 Dobnak pitches if needed Game 5 - 10/10 Syndergaard pitches if needed, or he's ready for Game 1 vs. the next opponent. 1 pitcher has been the difference many times. If you don't believe a true ace makes a difference in the playoffs... well, we have utterly no common ground and there's nothing to even discuss.
  2. bean5302
    I know who Alcala is, I just didn't know why you'd covet a middle reliever like he was made of gold. I guess my head was stuck on Alcantara at that point.
  3. bean5302
    Okay, I'll imagine the Twins won the World Series in 2019 with Noah Syndergaard, but lost Byron Buxton in the process. I'll take that. every. single. time. Mediocre teams that got hot/lucky at the right time can happen, but the likelihood it happens is low and the commitment to that low-risk philosophy leads to potentially decades of mediocrity like the Twins have experienced. Just good enough to win a weak division and be forgotten as a playoff team. That said, it may be a more viable philosophy with the ever expanding playoffs.
  4. bean5302
    Alcantara... you mean Sandy Alcantara? ERAs at the highest level each season. Where were these 5.85 and 5.87 ERAs you're talking about? a19 Rk - 3.22 a20 A+ - 3.62 a21 MLB - 4.32 -> Traded to Miami from St. Louis a22/26 MLB - 3.44, 3.88, 3.00, 3.19, 1.76 Btw, I'm not saying sell low. I'm saying you cannot sell them for anything of high value right now because other team front offices are not stupid. If the Twins were able to get another front office to see Martin or Balazovich as a major piece in a trade for a front line starter, it would be a huge coup.
  5. bean5302
    Low on innings, but otherwise... yes. Right now, ranked #10 at ERA and FIP for starters with 70+ innings. I'd say Alcantara, Rodon and Burns are probably favorites.
  6. bean5302
    I don't think the problem is trade assets. I think the problem here is the attachment to the prospects who are performing. Essentially, the fans here don't want to give anything up. Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Ober... they're all established or semi-established and team controlled for a few years. The non-established guys like Lewis, Steer, Wallner, and Winder all have value. Some high upside, but further away prospects Miller, Encarnation-Strand, Hajjar, Povich. There's plenty of value, but the Twins have exactly 0 elite prospects who aren't injured at this point so trade packages are going to be tough to hammer out without parting with coveted pieces.
  7. bean5302
    AA - a23 - 3rd professional year - .249/.378/.313 - OPS .691 - wRC+ 93 - 11.7% BB, 13.8% K. No power at all. Worst fielding percentage and range factors at SS in the entire league by a mile. AAA - a23 - 7th professional year - 10.13 ERA, 7.70 FIP, 5.01 xFIP, 8.28 K/9, 4.60 BB/9, 2.32 WHIP Selling that at all would be an achievement.
  8. bean5302
    I suspect Larnach, Steer, Ober would be the ask.
  9. bean5302
    Chase Petty is pitching pretty well in A ball right now as a 2nd year pro out of high school. Gray isn't exactly free with a $10MM salary this year and a $12MM club option next year, though he's definitely more than earning his keep. With Gray being a frequent flyer on the IL, he's about a 2.5 WAR pitcher with declining velocity. Good, but hardly excellent. A nice #3 guy when healthy who should be hauling in $15MM-ish per year. So there is some value with Gray, but it's not like he's a front line starter the Twins stole for a middle rank prospect. The Twins need the front end starter so dropping Martin and Balazovic is fine, but considering how they're playing, I'm not sure those would be the prospects the Reds would be asking about.
  10. bean5302
    Brooks Lee isn't likely to stick at SS. Aside from that, Correa is 95% gone after this year, and that's a good thing. If Correa is here next year, it's because he had a catastrophic injury and won't be ready for the start of (or any of) the 2023 season so he decided to take his player option. Lewis has all of 41 plate appearances at the MLB level and will miss a couple months next season, at least. In addition, the Twins don't think much of Palacios, Cavaco is a bust and Noah Miller is at least 3 more years away. I'd say the cupboard is much more bare at SS than you think.
  11. bean5302
    Sano could go 1.000/1.000/4.000 for the rest of his rehab assignment and I wouldn't have any interest in him long term and I suspect there's little Sano can do to pique the interest of other teams in terms of trade value. No idea what to do with him once the Twins activate him.
  12. bean5302
    Kumar Rocker is interesting, but you have to hand it to the Mets on that one. They got absolutely trashed for not signing Rocker. Good 'ol Scott Boras insisted everything was fine and then... On Saturday night, teams received medical records pertaining to right-hander Kumar Rocker and learned that he had shoulder surgery last September. The Mets selected the former Vanderbilt star 10th overall last July and agreed to a $6 million bonus deal that fell apart when they balked at his post-Draft physical. After New York offered him a $0 bonus -- a formality so it could get the No. 11 pick this year as compensation for failing to sign him -- he opted not to return to college. Hard to return to college when you don't know if you'll be ready to pitch by then...
  13. bean5302
    He's 30% better than the average hitter at the plate in MLB. How do you define that as a liability? Your position the Twins trainers, medical staff and coaching staff have determined it would be best to risk the health of a player who just signed a very big and very long term contract doesn't make a lot of sense. It would be reckless and negligent to operate like that, in addition to it being out of the character for the franchise. A 24hr job to be on the field doesn't mean he walks in for 21hrs of treatment at the hospital. I'm sure Buxton has to follow an annoying and detailed protocol to maximize the chance he can play. It probably involves things like diet, rest, activity restrictions, medication, icing and other treatments that have to be followed in a timely manner. That's a 24hr process. If his knee flares up, he doesn't play. If he feels good and is able to prove it in a workout, he does play.
  14. bean5302
    All Star Game OPS+ 133. Still has elite CF defensive stats when he's playing there. You're right. Buxton isn't helping. There's always Jake Cave!
  15. bean5302
    Mostly I agree with you, but the truth is the Twins are under .500 dating back to the start of June. It's definitely time to be concerned this team doesn't have the legs to hold onto a playoff spot.
  16. bean5302
    It's tough to gauge how hurt Buxton is. I wouldn't be surprised if this was one of those offseason surgery types of things where he can't really hurt it more, but it will require surgery to fix things. In any case, people seem upset that Buxton is an All Star caliber player. He's one of the best center fielders in the game. So what if he's not the guaranteed MVP if he plays 120 games level player many fans on this site want him to be? Correa's defensive numbers are what's holding his production lower than previous years. His bat is right about where it should be relative to competition. The best players on the team are not the reason the Twins aren't winning.
  17. bean5302
    How will AA help him or the Twins in your opinion? Here's what I recall. Balazovic was making a mockery of AA hitters last year until Wes Johnson challenged him to use the changeup in any count against lefties and righties. After that point, Balazovic was pretty inconsistent and suddenly started walking a ton of guys. Johnson was not nearly as bullish on Balazovic as Twins fans were with the coach suggesting Balazovic might have a ceiling of middle of the rotation. Is the problem AAA hitters or is the problem Balazovic's changeup just doesn't work against high level competition? Balazovic AA <7/25/2021 - 31.3 K%, 5.5 BB%, 1.04 WHIP, 2.44 ERA, 2.73 FIP AA >7/25/2021 - 18.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, 1.71 WHIP, 4.61 ERA, 4.90 FIP AAA >5/07/2022 - 17.6 K%, 9.8 BB%, 2.32 WHIP, 10.12 ERA, 7.70 FIP Balazovic doesn't really look much different in AAA this year than he did to finish AA last year. He's giving up a ton of hits, being hit hard, walking a ton of guys and not striking many out. Maybe there's an underlying injury or maybe he's just destined to be a 2 pitch guy working out of the bullpen. I don't see how AA will help him. At least he's super close to the Twins' staff right now. Putting him in Wichita (the middle of nowhere) doesn't feel like an advantage to me.
  18. bean5302
    I would really have been surprised if Wallner didn't get bumped up to AAA. I mean... there's not much else you can ask the guy to do, haha. Encarnation-Strand earned his jump up as well. It'll be interesting to see how his game plays at AA. The BB vs. K ratio is okay and he's been destroying the baseball this year in high A. Hopefully, he's able to maintain the fairly aggressive plate approach against much tougher competition.
  19. bean5302

    Sano Situation

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Snell vs. Sano 2022 - $12.5MM vs. $9.25MM 2023 - $16.0MM vs. $14.0MM or $2.75MM buyout https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/06/30/the-cubs-padres-buy-a-prospect-trade-rumors-may-come-back-but-with-a-twist/ I'm assuming that's the article you're sourcing. The Padres are potentially looking to get relief Snell by adding a prospect to the mix for the acquiring team so the Padres can avoid the threshold penalty. Looks like they're about $5MM over right now so dumping all of Snell's contract would probably get them there. Picking up Sano's contract would pretty much nullify the whole advantage while losing a good starter for a bad position player.
  20. bean5302
    Honestly, it is kind of interesting to think of how well position players with strong arms might be able to cover the catcher position when pitch framing goes out of the mix. From a technical standpoint, I'm guessing it wouldn't be a huge reach. From a physicality standpoint, though, the leg strength would probably be a real problem. Even a veteran catcher like Mauer took months to build his legs back up to handle the load.
  21. bean5302
    Wallner had some closer duty at Southern Miss. Maybe he learned how to catch through osmosis of talking to the receivers? LOL
  22. bean5302
    Romero is playing in Yokohama, Japan for the past couple years where he's had mediocre results after appearing in MLB across 2 years where he struggled. Romero also looked pretty rough at AAA in 2019 where he was too hittable and walked too many guys. He just doesn't have much of a track record of success. Sometimes players are just overhyped. Speaking of the hype machine, Brusdar Graterol is having a solid season with the Dodgers' out of their bullpen. He hasn't turned into the starter fans were hoping he could be, or the elite closer for that matter, but he is having an above average season and adding solid value. That said, chances Graterol turns lives up to the massive hype is pretty limited.
  23. bean5302
    Hahaha, I'm wrong on prospects all the time. Sometimes I think they'll be great, sometimes I think they'll flop. The truth is, you never really know if their game plays until they start playing at the MLB level. My biggest mistake recently is I didn't have high hopes for Jhoan Duran. I felt like if MiLB hitters could lay off his stuff and take walks, MLB hitters would for sure have him figured out. Seems like Duran's struggles with walks last year might just have been the UCL or maybe he's just gotten better with control considering he's never been this good at controlling the free pass at any level. In any case, he's walking almost nobody this year and still striking everybody out.
  24. bean5302
    Since June 12th. Exit velocity = 86.2mph Hard Hit = 24.2% Barrel Rate = 6.1% SwStr = 11.9% K% = 25.0% BB% = 6.3% If you feel like Duffey has been hit hard and has gotten lucky lately, overall, there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence of that.
  25. bean5302
    Sanchez is fine. I'd be inclined to move Sanchez to the starting every day catcher and Jeffers be the backup, but regardless, the Twins' need to upgrade at catcher is minimal. Even with Jeffers performing as-is, there are other higher priorities in my opinion.
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