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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The number of injuries the Twins have experienced, all at the same time out of the gate, has been a more than I'd reasonably expect. I do think having Lewis, Correa, Kepler, and Duran all out at the same time for significant time to start the season off has impacted the team in the W/L category, but I don't think it's hurt the team any more than the roster construction in the first place.
  2. bean5302
    2023 5ft splits. Wallner = 0.00, 0.53, 0.83, 1.09, 1.32, 1.54, 1.74, I think you know what happens from here on... Larnach = 0.00, 0.52, 0.82, 1.08, 1.32, 1.54, 1.75, The players have the same acceleration curve for the first 20 feet or so. Larnach's route running is better as Wallner's reaction and first step are rough.
  3. bean5302
    Front office for not addressing a single need they had coming into the offseason. The Twins have a higher payroll this year than 5 of 12 playoff teams last year and one of the teams in the World Series (Arizona). They have the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central this year, behind the White Sox by like $2MM. The ownership has green lighted 5 major contracts in the last 4 years. Donaldson, Buxton, Correa, Lopez, Correa. Need top rotation arm to replace Gray: Nope Need every day outfielder who can cover center field: Nope Need good power RH bat: Nope
  4. bean5302
    Can't steal unless they're on base and Baldelli actually makes the call to try.
  5. bean5302
    LOL, no he is not. Wallner (28.2->28.0 ft/sec) is literally as fast as Royce Lewis (28.4->28.2 ft/sec) and Austin Martin (27.9 ft/sec) who are all on the edge of center fielder speed. Larnach is like 26.5 ft/sec (below average). Larnach's defensive instincts are great, though. Wallner looks awkward out there, but Wallner has a higher defensive ceiling than Kepler. No chance Wallner gets called up until he rakes for a few weeks, though. He's looked ugly at the plate for a few weeks now.
  6. bean5302
    7th professional year in baseball, a27 season, looked like a bust from 2019-2022, didn't hit well in AAA last year.
  7. bean5302
    My opinion has been Festa = Strotman for a long while now. Can't or won't throw strikes. I liked seeing only 1 BB in 3.1 innings last night, but not the 4 hits which came along with the lack of walks. WHIP is one of the most important stats for me. Festa's WHIP is 1.33, 2.25, 2.62, 1.00, 1.50 in his starts so far with 64, 57, 69, 50, 49 pitch counts. Great for 3 innings! Not so great if you need a guy to be a starter who will go 5.0+ and 90+ pitches. How will the Twins even know if he can hold velocity after 70 or 80 pitches to be a legit starter? I do not care for the handling of these guys. Festa's outings last year: bold where there was a change of more than 20% from previous 51, 72, 83, 79, 81, 71, 70, 68, 62, 75, 78, 78, 69, 35, 25, 50, 64, 63, 45, 66, 73, 92, 91, 61 Like WTF? Maybe you'll pitch the equivalent of 2.0 innings, maybe you'll pitch 6.0?
  8. bean5302
    For sure. It's primarily the K rate here. No qualified hitter over .282 had a K rate of 24.0% or higher. Incredibly difficult to hit .300 with a K rate north of 20%.
  9. bean5302
    Probably are way more injuries these days. We know pitchers now throw 100% effort and harder than ever. Velocity = arm injuries. Hitters are 20-50lbs heavier than they used to be. Players are faster, stronger, bigger, heavier. Stronger muscles and heavier weights + max effort = injury.
  10. bean5302
    Falvey chose hitters with the boom or bust profile. Lots of raw power, who cares after that. Rooker, Sabato, Kirilloff, Larnach, etc. Even hitters without the HRs in college were tested to see if they could make their raw power into HR power like Martin was. Falvey wants home runs as the number one priority. If we're seeing an increase in GB rates, it's certainly not from the intended approach, it's just noise or personnel due to injuries.
  11. bean5302
    Larnach has always been a line drive hitter (like Joe Mauer or Alex Kirilloff) so the potential for a .300 batting average is there, but the K's are going to have to come way down to do it. Hopefully, less noise in his swing and a shorter stroke will help him hold off on decisions a few microseconds and that'll help him identify pitches better so he can sustain the success. Time will tell.
  12. bean5302
    Nah. Larnach has to absolutely rake beyond any of his historical precedents to keep it if Wallner starts hitting. Larnach is making a good case at the moment, though!
  13. bean5302
    Honestly? Probably SSS. Larnach got a few big hits against breaking stuff last year early on before it all went sideways again. His biggest weakness is the changeup. I, too, am happy to watch Larnach succeed, but the track record on him is pretty long at this point. Maybe he altered his swing which is helping him. Too early to tell.
  14. bean5302
    That cooler weather after the rain took away Lopez's velocity and his stuff from the article? Yeah... except the opponent's pitcher, who had no issues. Lopez was down 1.5-2.0mph from his average start. That's a huge red flag. Hopefully, we don't hear about forearm/elbow issues in the next couple days.
  15. bean5302
    I expect Santana has months. Literally, months of leash time with this front office. Gallo was arguably the worst player in baseball after May last year. The Twins kept calling his number right up until they left him off the playoff roster.
  16. bean5302
    I did joke with a Twins staffer they should have done "Purr at the park" as the fans would definitely be entertained by the security staff herding 20 cats around the field, haha
  17. bean5302
    I don't think it matters whether or not Larnach has an option for the Twins. He's getting an opportunity, but the length of that opportunity probably depends on how Wallner continues to hit at AAA. Larnach's going to do all he can to convince the Twins (or another team) that Trevor can be a legitimate MLB outfielder, but it's probably going to depend on Wallner rather than Larnach himself. Larnach is like a 95% known quantity. Crushes fastballs, struggles against most breaking pitches and can't handle changeups. He's 27 now, but he'll probably get about 100 PA before he has to worry about anything at this point. If Wallner doesn't rake for 20 games or so, I can't see the Twins making a move as Larnach is viewed as a depth/IL replacement guy at this point, and Wallner is still viewed as a prospect the Twins will invest in AAA correction time.
  18. bean5302
    Affordability has a lot to do with who the Twins trade off the roster. There are always going to be concessions. Vazquez, Polanco, Farmer, Kepler. That's $40MM. How the Twins handle that is up to them. JDM cost $4.5MM this year, and while I do think it would have cost more to sign him a bit earlier, probably not much. https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/11/5/23948211/bean5302s-twinkietown-off-season-plan That's what I suggested on Twinkietown on Nov 5. Obviously, Snell decided he was going to get $200MM so he was a non-starter... heh. There were plenty of starters who the Twins could have grabbed in that $25MM AAV range, though. I wanted to rely upon Kirilloff as a potential LFer and acquire Jarren Duran from the Red Sox to provide an every day OF who could cover CF.
  19. bean5302
    We're 100% in agreement. Betting on veterans who are #4-5 types means they're literally one step back from being guys you don't want in the rotation at all. I've been beating the drum for years and years on this point. Even if you're overpaying for a guy you signed at $20MM AAV hoping for a 3.50 ERA and they regress to a 3.90 ERA, they're still a guy you want in the rotation and probably in the playoffs as your #3. There's still huge value in that. Same kind of point on utility guys or platoon only guys. That's luxury spending if you have the budget. They're not the guys you should be counting on to add value. They're guys who tread water for you while the contributors are on the IL.
  20. bean5302
    Yep. The Twins needed a top end rotation arm, a solid every day OF who could play CF and a big RH bat. They got none of it because Falvey couldn't bring himself to stop chasing all the cheap shiny things like he always does.
  21. bean5302
    The problem with going with the hot hand means you're just playing a game of craps. The hot hand last start in AAA might mean they're the cold hand "this" start when you call them up, haha.
  22. bean5302
    It was fun at the game last night. Truly beautiful Spring baseball night at the game, seats were dry, didn't notice any rain at all. Temps never dropped much despite it being expected to end in the mid 50s. End of game time was 60*, start was like 64*. I'd like to see the offense string together hits like this on a regular basis. Seeing so many hits was exciting, and though the crowd was meager, you could tell they were excited to see solid baseball making the game feel more electric than it was.
  23. bean5302
    The Twins are in quite the crunch. If Kepler blows the doors off the season like he did in the last half of 2023, Kepler is going to get 3yrs at probably $15-20 AAV. Normal Kepler will just get fewer years, but the AAV won't drop below $10-12MM. Bad Kepler is a why would you bring him back? 2025 Correa $37MM - Full NTC Lopez $22MM Buxton $15MM - Full NTC Vazquez $10MM Paddack $7.5MM That's $90MM locked up and guaranteed for the Twins next year in 5 players. Doesn't leave a lot of space if the Twins don't raise payroll. Payroll won't jump unless people go to the games or the Twins land a great TV contract. So far, the Twins have 19.5k per game attendance. 23rd in baseball. The AL Central has become quite the embarrassment to MLB. The weather really hasn't been great so hopefully this shifts a bit. CLE = 21.3k (22nd) MIN = 19.5k (23rd) DET = 16.7k (25th) CHW = 16.1k (26th) KCR = 15.9k (27th)
  24. bean5302
    Of the internal options (which aren't great). Woods-Richardson is probably the best option. Festa = Drew Strotman. Festa cannot throw strikes, and I suspect if he did change his game to try, he'd get destroyed (just like Strotman did). Dobnak has struggled with walks which doesn't bode well for a high contact rate pitcher and he'd have to be added to the 40 man roster. Woods-Richardson has been decent this year in AAA aside from the clunker he threw on 4/7. He's already on the 40 man and his clock is ticking. I'd like the Twins to take a look at Noah Syndergaard as depth. Should be able to scoop him on a MiLB contract. Give him a month or two in the minors to see if they can help him out.
  25. bean5302
    Winder is a reliever at this point. There's absolutely no realistic scenario where I'd view him as a potential starter.
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