Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,350

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    What I was really meaning to say is Dave St. Peter should learn how to market or be replaced by somebody who does so people want to come to the games. The rest would figure itself out. After the abysmal 2011 campaign, 34.2k fans still went to the average Target Field game, and 30.5k fans after the continued horror of 2012, and 27.8k fans even after the trifecta of 2013. Attendance stayed at 27.4k in 2015 even after the team sucked in 2014 for the quadfecta of horrible seasons before. There's plenty of reasons for people to attend a Twins game at Target Field, and if it's marketed properly, the seats will be filled at a solid clip. It's not being marketed well, and people don't want to go and that is absolutely impacting the Twins' player budget.
  2. bean5302
    Yes. 100% I'd like the Twins to try it. Duran's value as a reliever is limited to about 1/3rd of that as a successful starter. I think they'd have to start him off as a 2 inning closer. Johan Santana was a successful reliever before he was the best starter in MLB.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah, so great they've given the Twins a good chance at winning their games 50% of the time so far (leaving the game with an ERA under 4.00)
  4. bean5302
    Hey, totally your prerogative. I think people should 100% spend their money on whatever makes them happy. If that's attending Twins games and the game day experience, great. If it's classic muscle cars, nice (they're expensive). If it's import cars with giant fart cans, your call (please, please drive someplace other than the parking garage near my house). If it's having a beer and watching the game at a Twins Daily event, sure. If that's a Twins Daily subscription used solely to avoid ads so you're not distracted while posting rage comments about spending, it's how some people will roll. Meanwhile, Falvey looks desperately for another $5MM has-been/never was, but who was good at hitting left handed pitching in the 6th inning in early evening games when it's a light rain and nobody is on base in 2021 so Baldelli's broken Excel macro spreadsheet can find a platoon for that...
  5. bean5302
    They're not. I'm not sure where you get the opinion Twins hitters are somehow different than they've historically been? Complaint, low average. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. Complaint, lots of strikeouts. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. Complaint, streaky/LOB. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. (naturally goes with the first two) The home runs haven't been showing up. That's the only difference, but things would look a lot like last year if you swapped Wallner/Margot with Gallo for the month of April. The Twins would suddenly be middle of the pack for HRs. All it takes is one Twins hitter on a hot streak to skew numbers.
  6. bean5302
    I actually don't have a clue what Levine actually does. A real "What would you say.... you do here???" Office Space, Tom Smykowski situation. Evidently, whatever Levine does, it's not particularly impressive as Boston didn't even want to talk to him for a second round of interviews.
  7. bean5302
    It's not a joke. Twins fans have been attending games at a similar rate to the early 2000s Metrodome fans in recent years = Not Good. In general, no fans = no revenue = no spending. That's business. Colorado Rockies attendance vs. Twins 2019 = 37.0k/game (71-91) vs. 28.4k/game (101-61)* 2020 = (26-34) vs. (36-24)* 2021 = 23.9k/game (74-87) vs. 16.4k/game (73-89) 2022 = 32.0k/game (68-94) vs. 22.2k/game (78-84) 2023 = 32.2k/game (59-103) vs. 24.3k/game (87-75)* 2024 = 26.6k/game (4-15) vs. 22.4k/game (6-11) *Playoffs Rockies fans support their team at a high level and allow for the (idiot) owner to spend more in payroll even though their team hasn't posted a winning record. In case you're wondering about this year's attendance, Coors Field can be awfully unpleasant in April (colder than Target Field for evening games). Twins fans have not supported the franchise well. I see arguments every day on this site about how the Twins should be spending more. The Twins have lost money on a cumulative basis after 2019 and 3 of the past 4 years despite pushing payrolls higher and higher and higher. Do you know why Rockies fans attend games at Coors Field? It's a great venue which caters towards adults and the overall gameday experience. Personally, I feel Dave St. Peter is at fault rather than fans who literally have no idea how to optimize their game day experience because Twins marketing is pathetic. In any case, I'm not sure what your requirement is? "If you build it, they will come" is about a stadium venue to watch the games. Target Field is built. It's a nice venue to watch baseball games. It's a nice venue to get out with the crowd.
  8. bean5302
    I think we could potentially see a coaching change, but if we do, it'll signal Falvey is feeling a lot of heat. I'm not particularly concerned about the hitters even though they're scuffling badly right now. I am concerned about Baldelli's lineup selection process and the roster construction. If the Twins miss the playoffs or get swept out again, I have no doubt there will be a new GM running the show by November.
  9. bean5302
    It's because the front office prioritizes certain aspects of player profiles. Derek Falvey's drafting and development history values taking walks and hitting home runs. Those profiles almost always come with enormous amounts of swing and miss in their game, and Falvey's drafts haven't produced much in the way of results at the MLB level for the Twins. Falvey created the roster the coaches are working with.
  10. bean5302
    Tell that to the analysts, fans and Farmer himself. They all expected Farmer to be moved after he was tendered.
  11. bean5302
    If a few more fans would spend a little money to attend the games, payroll wouldn't have been slashed. The Twins are 19th in MLB in payroll at $130MM. The team's payroll is competitive with their revenues, and $130MM was sufficient to field a competitive team. OAK = $63MM PIT = $84MM MIA = $97MM TBR = $99MM CLE = $100MM <-- Bottom AL Central in spending, top in the standings. CIN = $102MM BAL = $102MM <--- The team that just swept us. MIL = $106MM DET = $106MM WSH = $110MM KCR = $116MM MIN = $130MM CHW = $133MM <-- Top AL Central in spending, bottom in the standings.
  12. bean5302
    Yes. Farmer was primarily viewed as a non-tender guy due to the cost. Once the Twins somewhat surprisingly tendered him a contract, the expectation was that Farmer would likely be traded due to the tight position player market. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/mlbtr-poll-should-the-twins-trade-kyle-farmer.html Even Farmer himself was surprised he remained on the roster and wasn't traded before the start of the season.
  13. bean5302
    I think Joe Pohlad made it clear Falvey would be at risk for packing his bags if the Twins didn't "advance" in the playoffs last year during a mid-season 2023 interview. I do believe ownership has some motive in cutting payroll beyond just profit. I suspect Falvey's seat is actually very hot. This is the last year of his contract if I'm not mistaken, and ownership has bailed Falvey out by pushing record setting payrolls and agreeing to superstar splash contracts late in the year both in 2022 and 2023. I don't like the "prove it" approach when the AL Central competition level is expected to be weak again this year, but there are comments in regard to building teams through drafting and development by Joe Pohlad this spring which align with the "prove it" methodology. Pohlad specifically mentioned Tampa Bay and Baltimore using the phrase "right size our business." The Twins have been spending higher than attendance in recent years in terms of MLB ranks. The expectation the Twins have the revenue/payroll to be competitive if the drafting and development system is in place is not unreasonable. Bailey Ober is the only legitimate (back end) MLB caliber starter drafted/IL signed and developed by the Falvey front office in 7 years. That's not sustainable. That's literally worse than Terry Ryan and Bill Smith whose mentionable guys actually produced real on the field value for the Twins rather than some other franchise. Smith 4 drafts, 7 players 2008-2011 = Hicks (2008), Gibson (2009), Dozier (2009), Sano (2009), Polanco (2009), Kepler (2009), Rosario (2010) <--- Smith's results were by far the best IMHO with 4 players who became All Stars in 4 years. Ryan 7 drafts, 11 players 2006-2007, 2012-2016 = Valencia (2006), Revere (2007), Buxton (2012), Berrios (2012), Duffey (2012), Rogers (2012), Garver (2013), Gordon (2014), Kirilloff (2016), Miranda (2016), Jax (2016), 2 All Stars. Falvey 7 drafts, 10?+ players 2017-2023 = Lewis (2017), Ober (2017), Jeffers (2018), Funderburk (2018), Wallner* (2019), Julien (2019), Varland** (2019), Lee? (2022), Jenkins? (2023), Soto? (2023). I think Lewis, Jenkins and Soto could eventually become All Stars. Lewis' health issues are now absolutely a real problem. *Wallner was first drafted by Terry Ryan's front office in 2016, same for Rooker who didn't provide much to MN so unlisted. **Varland doesn't look like a legit starter, didn't highlight Duffey for Ryan, either.
  14. bean5302
    Caleb Thielbar is under team control as Arbitration Eligible (4th year) this year. Being a MiLB free agent (Thielbar) vs. an MLB free agent are different things. Had he truly been an MLB free agent (without team control), we can maybe estimate how things would have worked out for him. 2019 = a32 MiLB Free Agent 2020 = a33 $0.2 MM (Pre-Arb) vs. Free Agent 1yr $0.2MM 2021 = a34 $0.7 MM (Arb 1) vs. Free Agent 1yr $3MM 2022 = a35 $1.3 MM (Arb 2) vs. Free Agent 1yr $8MM 2023 = a36 $2.4 MM (Arb 3) vs. Free Agent 1yr $10MM 2024 = a37 $3.2 MM (Arb 4) vs. Free Agent 1yr $10MM Actual = 5yrs, $7.8 MM vs. Free Agent 5yrs $31.2 MM. The 10x is exaggerated, but Thielbar is in the twilight of his career, and he hasn't been compensated for his work. Thielbar will have no opportunity to be fairly compensated for his work in the future, either, because he'll be 38 before he's out of team control. The balance of doing what's right for the player and doing what's right for the organization gets skewed when it comes to players who don't get a lot of opportunity for whatever reason (not being good/service time manipulation/not being discovered, etc) in their early/mid 20s.
  15. bean5302
    Yeah, I'm not happy with the Pohlad's decision to cut payroll capacity so much. I think the real cut they needed to make was Dave St. Peter's responsibilities and find somebody who can put fans in the seats. They really botched it this year. I think the Twins bought into the strategy "spend money to make money" the past couple years, but without success. I think that has mostly to do with St. Peter as I still feel the strategy is 100% valid.
  16. bean5302
    I really thought sign and trade would be a good option for Farmer. I'd also love to know Farmer's thoughts on catching since that's what the Dodgers drafted and coached him to be. Wonder if the Twins considered using him at catcher at all last year? It would be a good strategic choice to bolster Farmer's value in plans to sign/trade later.
  17. bean5302
    I expect Baldelli will give the 37yr old (not 38) Thielbar a pretty heavy load until it looks like he can't handle it. The velocity looks good out of the gate so there's reason to expect he can get the outs. Thielbar will finally be a free agent at the end of the year, and I expect there's a good chance he and the Twins part ways at that point. If he puts together a season like 2022 again, I'm sure he'll get picked up by somebody on a $9MM-ish contract. If it's like 2023, more like $5MM-ish. Either way, it seems highly unlikely the Twins will match Thielbar's first free agency payday. Thielbar is a perfect example of what I really dislike about the free agency rules in MLB. He'll be 38 years old when he first has a chance to reach free agency. I liked the idea of 30 years old or 6 years, whichever is sooner, but it's not really a priority for MLBPA because there's so little value in it for the players as Thielbar is a true rarity. Thielbar would easily have made 10x as much money in his career if he hit free agency at age 30.
  18. bean5302
    27.0 ft/sec was Julien in 2023. 24.4 ft/sec is Julien in 2024 as recorded in SSS There is no universal speed thing. That does not exist. Austin Martin is 28.0 ft/sec this year.
  19. bean5302
    This is exactly the issue. Falvey constructed the roster as if there was still $20-30MM in the budget for the main pieces. The Twins are carrying a $130MM payroll this year. It's in the middle 3rd of baseball, ranking 19th. Given the need for space Santana was unnecessary with Miranda/Kirilloff Polanco should have been moved earlier instead of the typical Falvey do nothing until late in the year strategy, and all the trade partners are gone so the Twins didn't need to take on $7MM of additional contracts they didn't really want/need. Farmer was only acceptable as a sign/trade. Margo was not necessary with Martin/Gordon/Castro That's $22MM right there. Can't blame the Pohlads for Falvey squandering $20MM of capacity. Also, should have moved Kepler for payroll space. That's how you manage a budget. You make tough decisions.
  20. bean5302
    OAA doesn't care about positioning. It only cares how far the player needed to travel to make a play. Top speed is most valuable in a position where the player has to run long distances (center field). A relatively slow player (Carlos Correa) can still be a plus defender in the middle infield with reaction time, acceleration, transition time and throwing velocity. Sprint speed at this time of year doesn't have enough sample size to be super reliable. I doubt Julien is literally one of the slowest players to play MLB this year, and dropping from 27.0 ft/sec to 24.4 ft/sec is unheard of. OAA has some big flaws to be sure, and I would never rely upon it in a vacuum, but combined with other metrics, it can help an analyst get to the bottom of a players defensive skills a little better.
  21. bean5302
    Larnach and Wallner are not in similar spots. Wallner is younger, has more options, and was one of the best hitters in baseball last year. Larnach is older, with fewer options, and far more plate appearances so he's a known quantity as a roughly MLB average or slightly below average hitter. They're in utterly different spots in their career. Larnach is no longer a prospect, is no longer viewed as a potential quality MLB regular, and he no longer has significant trade value of any sort. Baseballtradevalues has Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, and Emmanuel Rodriguez in the same trade value range right now because of Wallner's outstanding 2023 and the upside which comes along with him. Mike Trout has a similar xwOBA heat map as Wallner had in 2023. Wallner does not have a massive hole in his swing, it's an average sized weakness. Virtually every hitter is going to struggle at driving pitches well outside the strike zone where it's more about swing/take than "holes in the swing," and it's totally normal for a hitter to struggle to drive pitches in 3 sections of the 9 section strike zone. There are scouting reports out on how to beat Mike Trout, but it just hasn't worked because of 3 reasons. 1. Trout crushes pitches over a huge amount of the strike zone 2. Trout isn't weak against a bunch of different pitches 3. Trout manages his swing/take well enough. All of those were true for Wallner last year as well, but Wallner's swing/take this year is terrible (not to mention getting the obvious shaft on some calls with an extremely SSS). I brought Mike Trout into this to crush the "hole in the swing" to exploit nonsense. You're right that if Wallner doesn't get out of his own head and stop making such poor swing/take decisions, he won't ever return to 2023 form. I'm all for sending him down to AAA to get his reset in, but there's no reason to believe Wallner won't return to form as a valuable hitter. Gallo is what an exploitable hole in the swing looks like. 6 of 9 strike zone sectors he couldn't hit last year.
  22. bean5302
    Tyler Wells to the IL with right elbow inflammation.
  23. bean5302
    White Sox are going to lose 100+
  24. bean5302
    Virtually every single hitter in MLB has pitch locations they struggle with. Here's Mike Trout, aka best player in all of baseball not connected to PEDs over the past 50 years. (circa 2022). Struggles against pitches high in the zone. That's 4 out of the 9 zones he doesn't drive well. I tossed in Wallner last year, just for funsies... strange. Looks a heck of a lot like Trout in terms of these glaring weaknesses you cite.
  25. bean5302
    This keeps getting posted, but here's Wallner's MiLB/ST career 2019 - First 49 PA (R) .310/.408/.381 OPS .789 wRC+ 129 2020 - First 5 PA (ST) .500/.500/.500 OPS 1.000 wRC+ 262 2021 - First 49 PA (A+) .310/.388/.548 OPS .935 wRC+ 150 2022 - First 4 PA (ST) .333/.500/1.333 OPS 1.833 wRC+ 307 2022 - First 49 PA (AA) .073/.184/.146 OPS .330 wRC+ (20) 2023 - First 33 PA (ST) .207/.303/345 OPS .648 wRC+ 75 2023 - First 49 PA (AAA) .324/.490/.676 OPS 1.165 wRC+ 190 2024 - First 44 PA (ST) .132/.227/.395 OPS .622 wRC+ 59
×
×
  • Create New...