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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Miami desperately needs outfield help now because they're building and we have those outfielders in spades. Also, the Marlins are deep in pitching prospects like Sixto Sanchez to backfill Lopez when he's gone.
  2. bean5302
    Not sure why there are people advocating sticking with Joe Ryan here. He gave up 5 hits and 2 walks in 4.0 innings. That's a 1.50 WHIP while allowing 3 runs (2 earned) so it's not like Ryan was pitching particularly well out there. In regard to Ryan's struggles lately, it's not surprising considering how out of whack his ERA vs. FIP and xFIP were at the start of the season. It's just regression to the mean and he hasn't gotten there yet. Ryan owns a sparkly 3.00 ERA vs. his 3.68 FIP and 4.58 xFIP right now.
  3. bean5302
    Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend, especially since the linked article supported my position... I do not necessarily care if the players at the high minors are younger than than competition they play against because it doesn't matter nearly as much as the level of experience the players have. Woods-Richardson was drafted at 17. He has 5 years of MiLB experience with the best coaches, trainers, equipment, sports medicine and analytics in the world. He's not a fresh off the high school diamond newbie. He's a 5 year professional baseball veteran who has played against elite talent to identify holes in his game and make adjustments. The 23 year old guy who's 2 years older than Woods-Richardson being pitched to has 1 year of experience out of college ball. It's obvious Woods-Richardson would have a massive advantage here. That's why Woods-Richardson's age isn't all that important to me. Talent is largely done being honed after 5 years. It's either there... or it's not. Top pitching talent usually takes 2-3 years out of college or 3-4 years out of high school to get through the minors, and rarely does it take 2 years more than that. Despite usually being 2-4 years younger, high school guys usually only take 1 year longer to reach the majors than college guys. Age does not matter nearly as much once players get into their 20s. That's my opinion, and my opinion was honed through many hours of investigating the subject. Then again, you researched to... like finding that article which agreed with me.
  4. bean5302
    The (mean) average career WAR for a #5 pick is about 11ish with about 25% of first rounders never even making the big show. https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586 Gordon is such a hot topic because he's been so written off, and then he's struggled off and on. It seems like today, this minute, he's accepted as a good 26th man. I suppose that is a big step forward among this fanbase considering Gordon had a few vocal supporters with a lot of detractors wondering why Gordon should even be getting plate appearances going into last year. I also believe Gordon is going to have to take more walks. Going the Eddie Rosario route with plate discipline leads to a lot of feast and famine at the plate. He could get lucky and finish strong or he could slump hard and find himself on the edges of MiLB contracts. In any case, Gordon was slow to adapt to each level of play, but he always adapted. It seems like the MLB level is just the same. Gordon is slowly getting better and better. He's sitting at a wRC+ 108 on the season and I don't feel like he's necessarily reached his absolute ceiling, but it's really hard to believe he can keep up the growth. Since the start of June, he owns a .302/.362/.524 OPS .886 wRC+ 154 slash line with the help of a .348 BABIP which I don't think is sustainable, though the underlying metrics... aren't at all out of whack. Gordon has averaged an exit velocity of a near elite 92.6mph (max 110.7mph) over the span. His barrel rate of 20.4% and ridiculous hard hit rate of 59.2% coincide with a near optimal 15.6* launch angle. The line drive rate has been excellent at 24.5% with a relatively low 36.7% ground ball rate. The big issue, to me, appears to be the fact he's swinging at 45% of pitches outside the zone, but crushing them nonetheless. It's resulted in his performance being positive against every single off-speed and breaking pitch over that span and he's been destroying changeups and curveballs. I just don't feel like that's sustainable. Nor is the 82.6% first pitch strike situation he's gotten himself into. Fun to watch though.
  5. bean5302
    I can appreciate how many hours went into this write up. Posts like this take a lot of time, but I really would have liked to see some performance figures mixed in. That said, it's not necessary for a quick ranking like this. I seem to recall the Twins re-thinking Martin at shortstop, but apparently, they decided to keep him there after all. Apr - 6 errors 8 games at SS May - 6 errors 16 games at SS Jun+ - 3 errors 20 games at SS This will be just a guesstimate, but let me try to extrapolate his RF/9 per month. 8.45 innings per game. 0.36 chances per inning based on his season numbers assuming 44 games started at SS. Apr - 67.2 innings, 24 chances 18 PO + Assists, 6 E = RF/9 = 2.39 and .750 FP May - 135.0 innings, 49 chances 43 PO + Assists, 6 E = RF/9 = 2.87 and .878 FP Jun+ - 169.0 innings, 61 chances 58 PO + Assists, 3 E = RF/9 = 3.09 and .950 FP Martin has brought his fielding percentage up to poor, but not unplayable for the minors. The rate of chances likely hasn't stabilized, but here are the individual team numbers for the most common SS. Travelers = 3.53 & .992 Missions = 4.48 & .990 Sod Poodles = 3.64 & .950 (yes, that's the team name) Drillers = 3.20 & .969 Naturals = 3.42 & .971 Rough Riders = 4.24 & .967 Cardinals = 3.18 & .923 RockHounds = 4.08 & .950 Hooks = 3.29 & .952 The extrapolated performance for the last month on Austin Martin would still be arguably the worst SS in the league with only 1 team's top SS having any stat worse than Martin's performance. Since we're talking about everything in the same league, playable balls should be relatively similar. In my opinion, these are some general-ish guidelines. 4.00 & .990 Plus SS 3.75 & .980 mediocre 3.50 & .970 borderline Martin has a long row to hoe. Either the Twins see something they really like at SS or they see something they really, really don't like at the plate.
  6. bean5302
    Why did you link an article which supports my position if my position is "factually incorrect?" Did you not read the article or did you just not read my post? Besides that, even I'll concede my viewpoint is my opinion and now law, just like the article you linked talks about age being hotly debated in it's very opening so your comment about the importance of age being factually settled is "factually incorrect." My position is age doesn't matter nearly as much as experience. The article's position is also experience matters, not age.
  7. bean5302
    Wells had over 10 K/9 last year and every single stop in the minors except 2018 in A+ before bouncing back the same year at AA. He's been stretching out this year and the K rate tumbled for sure. The Orioles have been trying to limit Wells pitch counts to the same extent the Twins have limited Archer so there are reasons to expect Wells has the ability to crank it up and get a few more strike outs. He remains a huge Rule 5 screwup by Minnesota.
  8. bean5302
    I don't care if his face melted off and his eyes fell out. I literally do not care how badly a player is/was hurt when it comes to giving them a spot on the roster. It's a question of whether or not he was capable on the baseball field at the MLB level and the docs said yes. He was bad in 2020. I supported him being given a mulligan even though most of the folks here absolutely did not. Then, Cave played poorly at AAA in 2021 to start off the season .167/.239/.262 OPS .511 through May 12th before being diagnosed with a stress reaction in his back. Stress reactions are not the same as a typical broken bone, just FYI. Anyway, Cave was cleared to return to baseball activities after coming off the 60 day IL. I didn't have access to waterboard the team doctors and trainers on the conspiracy to get Cave out there even though he wasn't ready to play, and the fact Cave had a .367/.472/.500 OPS .972 return to AAA once he was removed from the IL seems to lend a little credibility to the Twins putting him back on the field. Cave proceeded to get called up as he'd earned it and he stumbled badly the rest of the season to finish with a .213/.259/.325 OPS .584 line from July 25th to the end of the year. I guess the stress reaction which was considered cured and was clearly not impacting his .972 OPS in AAA after his return mystically came back to life the moment Cave faced MLB pitchers again. What a coincidence! Based on Cave being bad in 2020, being terrible in 2021 and how stretched he is when playing CF, he simply found himself not generating MLB interest.
  9. bean5302
    I supposed Cave getting a mulligan on 2020, but when he was helpless at the plate last year, it started to add up. Cave finished the season very strong in AAA, but there just isn't a spot for him on the Twins at this point. I could see some other team having some interest in Cave. The gray beard does utterly nothing for his cause...
  10. bean5302
    Yes. I could see how respected veteran pitchers who are performing well and were brought in as free agents would be really excited to be moved to the bullpen for mediocre guys.
  11. bean5302
    Wallner (a24) will be ready for the big show opening day next year at this rate. It would surprise me to not see him moved to AAA soon. By pretty much every measure, Wallner has made significant improvements this year, at a much higher level of play. There's nothing for him left to prove in AA.
  12. bean5302
    Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see Cabrera return to form to end his career. It's good for the game, even if it's bad for the Twins. While Cabrera is hitting .300 right now, it's on a lot of luck. He's pounding ground balls which have eyes right now. His embarrassingly miserable 23.3 ft/sec sprint speed isn't getting any infield hits. It's pretty sad. There might be enough pop left in the tank to keep him at wRC+ 100 for the year after his batting average regresses back to the .250ish it probably should be at.
  13. bean5302
    First off, Sano is not making $14MM this year. He's making $9.25MM. His $14MM next year is a club option which there is a 0% chance of the Twins picking up and if he were traded, another team would be on the hook for the $2.75MM buyout. Sano has been bad at the plate and mind bogglingly horrible in the field for years now. He's posted negative WPA's for 3 straight seasons where he produced a best of wRC+ 110 last year after an abysmal start. wRC+ 110 is Sano's ceiling. For a DH (because his defense is so horrifying in the field that he's actually worth more defensively as a DH), there's just no value there. To trade Sano, another team has to be interested. Judging by the comments here, virtually nobody believes Sano has any value for the Twins so I'm not sure why there's a feeling other clubs would want our expensive cast offs. Crushing AAA pitching on a rehab assignment isn't impressive to me and I doubt it would be impressive to other teams. I do expect Sano will start his rehab assignment any time now and he'll be ready to come back before the deadline. What would the Twins get back in a trade for Sano? Well, to even make it happen, the Twins would need to eat the entirety of Sano's contract including the buyout and what would they get back? A mid level prospect maybe? Think a Drew Strotman. A guy who needs to be rostered, but isn't all that great. Just another roster crunch issue. The best option is to DFA him and assign him to AAA. Sano will probably refuse the assignment and some team will probably pick him up at the MLB minimum or he may even have to sign a MiLB contract. I said this in another thread, but I think Sano is 50/50 never to be seen in MLB again after this season.
  14. bean5302
    Just this year and next and Cabrera goes from a $32MM annual albatross to an $8MM buyout. Detroit must be counting the days...
  15. bean5302
    Right now, the rotation is: Joe Ryan Sonny Gray Dylan Bundy Chris Archer Devin Smeltzer Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer have all pitched very well recently. Every bit as good or better than I'd expect from Ober. It'll be very interesting to see how the Twins handle Ober's return. Gray, Archer, and Bundy cannot be optioned. I can't see Joe Ryan losing his rotation spot. That leaves Smeltzer to AAA? How much better than the other rotation options is Ober? Probably not much. Alcala could potentially be good, but he's the quintessential "should be good" but isn't. He's just a middle reliever at this point. Maeda probably won't pitch more than a handful of innings for the Twins this year. The question will be all about his control. Pitchers returning from TJ often have significant problems hitting their spots and Maeda won't have any time to really get the repetition he needs. The real value of Maeda is if he returns and manages to have control. He could make the biggest impact on a playoff roster.
  16. bean5302
    I cannot disagree with this more strongly. Experience is experience and Woods-Richardson has been in the world of professional baseball experience and development for 5 years now. If players haven't figured out their pitches, control and consistency in 5 years at the highest levels of coaching, there's only so much more you can expect. Also, when you look at the real prospects, they're always young for their level. Royce Lewis is technically younger than Martin and less than a year and a half older than Woods-Richardson for example. TwinsDaily and other Twins sites routinely use the "young for their level" to explain away poor performances at the high minors. That works when players are in their teens or they have minimal professional experience. It doesn't work anymore once players have years of pro development and are in their 20s at the high minors. Being the average age for a player in a league is not good because most true prospects move through the minors quickly. There are tons of non-prospects who are roster filler type guys at the AA and AAA levels, and those players raise the average age. A good example is the St. Paul Saints. The mean average age for the Saints batters is 27 this year so does that mean Ernie Yake is young for his level and can still develop into a stud? The age at which players essentially become non-prospects has long been 25, even though that would be "young" for AAA.
  17. bean5302
    Neither Woods-Richardson or Martin look like sure bets to make it to MLB, let alone play well at the MLB level. Woods-Richardson really came out flying this year, but his performance faded quickly. In fact, none of his past 7 starts have been impressive in my book. May/June = 5.74 ERA, 4.40 FIP. His K rate has been good and BB rate has been "okay" but hitters are teeing off on him which is what has led to a 1.47 WHIP across that span. While there is the potential BABIP is at work here, he's been consistently giving up more hits than I'd like to see. The Twins are obviously working with Woods-Richardson on his mechanics and pitches so there's reason to be hopeful. Woods-Richardson is not that young for AA considering he was drafted out of high school and this is his 5th year in the minor league system. Martin has been moved off shortstop because he can't handle the position and is producing below average in his league on his second go at AA mostly because he has only 11 extra base hits in 278 plate appearances (ISO .066) which compares to Ben Revere. At age 23, Martin is no longer young for a "prospect" at AA. Again, it's not like it's time to close the book on Martin, but what Martin has done in the Twins' system could hardly be considered impressive.
  18. bean5302
    I'm not looking for Steer's max velocity in a vacuum. I'm primarily looking to compare Steer to his peers. The timing I chose was the instant at which it felt (because I cannot physically see it) the ball left his hand to the instant at which the ball hit the glove (which I also cannot see) in real time. The same way you'd time a sprinter with a stopwatch or an umpire would make a safe/out call. I repeated the process until I had 3 nearly identical times, which was usually just 3 times.
  19. bean5302
    How did he recognize the velocity needed while being unable to see the runner on what was obviously going to be a close play no matter how strong the arm? Must be some wicked good precognition skills. I didn't see his magic grade in the scouting reports. Must be 80 grade.
  20. bean5302
    Dude, same throw, same distance, same leverage, one throw took significantly longer. Scouting reports also say Steer doesn't have the arm for SS and question him at 3B. My math was hosed because I wasn't using the hypotenuse like I should have been using (as if 2nd base didn't even exist...), but it was hosed in essentially the same way for everybody. I am NOT using frame rates because that wouldn't be a good idea as they may not be reliable due to file compression which Mr. Expert you linked to isn't accounting for. In addition, we're not talking about an approximate 55 foot throw here, it's over double that so the margin for error decreases. I timed the throws 3 times each until I got 3 nearly identical times.
  21. bean5302
    My bad, you're absolutely right. I thought those throwing speeds looked stupid low, lol. Since the bases are actually square rather than a diamond, the hypotenuse is going to be a^2 + b^2 = c^2 or 8100 + 8100 = c^(1/2) = 127ft, give or take because of the base width. Steer throwing 125 ft / 1.18 / 1.47 = 72mph Machado throwing 135 ft / 0.98 / 1.47 = 94mph Machado throwing 145 ft / 1.27 = 78mph Arenado throwing from knees 135 ft / 1.58 / 1.47 = 58mph Steer 72mph vs. Machado 94mph on essentially the same throw. MLB SS's should be in the mid/upper 80s.
  22. bean5302
    Astros 47-27 .635 (103 win pace) in a mediocre division. Yankees 56-20 .737 (119 win pace) in a very tough division. Starting Rotation Rank WAR / ERA / FIP Yankees #1 = 8.3 / #2 = 3.02 / #2 = 3.43 Astros #5 = 7.1 / #3 = 3.16 / #9 = 3.76 Relievers Rank WAR / ERA / FIP Yankees #3 = 3.6 / #1t = 2.78 / #3 = 3.25 Astros #8 = 2.4 / #1t = 2.78 / #5 = 3.38 Batting Rank WAR / OPS / wRC+ / RBI Yankees #1 = 15.4 / #2 = .757 / #1 = 117 / #1 = 358 Astros #3 = 14.1 / #7 = .738 / #3 = 114 / #15 = 310 Fielding Rank UZR/150 / DEF Yankees #8 = 2.5 / #6 = 11.0 Astros #2 = 6.3 / #1 = 23.0 The Yankees have arguably the best rotation in baseball, the best bullpen in baseball, the best lineup in baseball, and are well above average defensively. Aaron Judge is having an excellent season, but he's not the reason the Yankees look to be by far the best team in MLB this year. I'm no fan of the Yankees, but they're absolutely mowing through everybody and it's easy to see why.
  23. bean5302
    I expect the Marlins will be dealing at the deadline, they have a huge glut of pitching and they're desperate for MLB ready outfielder talent because they want to compete now. While I'd be shocked if they dealt Alcantara, Lopez would be a valid target. Lopez's drop in velocity is a little red flag, but the results are still there. Larnach, Kepler and Celestino would all likely turn some heads down in Florida.
  24. bean5302
    Steers arm looks pretty dang good to me there, but I timed it at 1.18-1.21 sec. Assuming the throw was 90 feet (a little inside 3rd, but a little back), that's only 50mph average. In the video below at 0:09 Machado makes a similar plant/throw, but probably more like 100 feet and I timed it at 0.98-1.01 sec. That's 70mph average. Machado makes another play at 0:25 from maybe 110 feet at 1.27-1.30sec, right about 59mph average. Essentially, Steer's arm is no where close to as good as the top arms at 3B. See 1:01 where Arenado makes a 100 foot throw in 1.58sec from his knees, just a tick slower than Steer's planted throw.
  25. bean5302
    Have to check back near the end of the season, unless the Twins trade Correa and the Twins are 3 games up on Cleveland and 6 games up on Chicago with only 2 weeks until the All Star break so it seems like a trade is getting pretty unlikely. Lewis' recovery will be considered in the equation, undoubtedly. If the Twins feel like Palacios/Steer/Gordon could technically cover the SS position for a couple months without hurting the club too much. Every free agent signing is a white flag for a team. A failure to develop players internally leading to an overpay in the free agency market.
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