bean5302

Buy 10 tickets for $10 ea. Show up at gate open. In-out-in-out, leave before game start. $150 profit. Also, did you ever see the lines on Caribou Coffee BOGO days from years past? People would drive like 20 minutes out of their way to save $4. Or the dad who drove 10 miles to save 5 cents a gallon on gas, LOL.

It seems like you're implying we should eliminate all pitching from the game to prevent all UCL injuries. I'm sure we have enough pitch machines where we could make it happen. I'm not for it though. I'd like to keep pitchers in the game. There is no safe workload. UCL tears are the result of an acute overstress. A single pitch causes a UCL tear. Not the 40th pitch or the 190th pitch. Just takes one. No meta analysis has found strong correlations with specific innings limits or pitch counts. Relievers often have UCL injuries and need TJ, yet they often don't pitch more than 60 innings a year or 30 pitches in a game. Pitchers are all different. Builds, genetics, how they wind up and deliver pitches, types of pitches, how hard they throw, how quickly they recover. It differs by pitcher.

I have also been very highly frustrated with the giveaway situation last year. Arriving 30-45min early for any giveaway which is decent isn't early enough. The attendance gets announced at like 25,000, but you look around the stadium and wonder if there's actually more than 10k. You'll find all the giveaways on ebay after the game. I suspect people are getting ultra cheap tickets, grabbing up the giveaways and selling them for profit. https://www.ebay.com/itm/186276421557?itmmeta=01HTP6RET3DJPF4VN372KHTTSX&hash=item2b5ef09fb5:g:0kMAAOSwQkRluFl6&itmprp=enc%3AAQAJAAAA8JkBOOI34bft7mwFSibJHSh1o7E9U2XgQMOBVsw1sLC%2BZTkJgosZlzUCj5J%2BCtzgqg61Y1HCqwa8caMmeCFkcOdOnYHHZQoPbtlyQHkO8NNP5Grpc1oLuZdZCE4ifZNKq1O8iCICePgjJzk5GDrOtPbDZuJokPV7xFqOnmM316xicajlalYXerNTHFe1Q0rPMwmCIup0bj%2FDeAF5ELq5lQuprgsjsCACZF3VisXfXoPcsIl1q4WLjW2pZbPaalrnMEr1MLpQNjA3cT1nHpNRlCmQKac6GE9JO088NhUVRckl%2FL7Xm%2FtnOO7XREs0NSTsgg%3D%3D|tkp%3ABFBMju3hxtVj

Many young pitchers have arm issues. It's commonplace these days and it cannot be avoided by giving them artificially low pitch counts and innings limits. The best case scenario is kicking the can down the line a year for their imminent UCL tear. The workload will eventually have to build up, and if injury is going to happen, it's going to happen. The single greatest risk factor for UCL tears is increased velocity. This is a known factor at this point. If teams want to avoid arm injuries, they can stop getting tunnel vision on velocity, but velocity produces results so I suspect that's not going to happen, and I suspect if a team did decide to be so magnanimous, the fans would quickly backlash at having 5 very healthy AAAA 87mph fastball pitchers in the rotation. How about we look at the Guardians as an example? They're considered pitching development gurus far, far superior to what the Twins front office has produced. 2015 - a18 Brady Aiken. UCL tear noted post-draft. Pitched 46 innings a19. Pitched 132 innings a20. 2015 - a17 Triston McKenzie. 12 innings (a17 post draft). 83 innings (a18). 143 innings (a19). 2016 - a21 Aaron Civale. 152 innings NCAA/MiLB (a21). 163 innings (a22) 2018 - a18 Ethan Hankins. 3 innings (a18 post draft). 60 innings (a19), 2020 no season. 0.0 IP. UCL tear immediate (a21) 2019 - a18 Daniel Espino. 24 innings (a18 post draft). 2020 no season. 92 innings (a20). 2019 - a21 5th rd Hunter Gaddis. 75 innings (a19 NCAA). 119 innings (a20 NCAA). 124 innings (a21 NCAA/MiLB) 2020 - a22 Tanner Burns. 87 innings (a19 NCAA). 80 innings (a20 NCAA). 22 innings (2020 NCAA). 76 innings (a22) 2020 - a21 Logan Allen. 74 innings (a19 NCAA). 99 innings (a20 NCAA/Smr). 26 innings (2020 NCAA). 111 innings (a22) 2021 - a21 Gavin Williams NCAA 81 innings (a21). 115 innings (a22) 2022 - a21 5th rd Tanner Bibee. 56 innings SP/RP (a19 NCAA). 113 innings (a20 NCAA/Smr). 30 innings (2020 NCAA), 90 innings (a22 NCAA). 133 innings (a23). Just some of the high rounders the Guardians have drafted in recent years. The biggest injury was to the guy they protected the most having him throw the fewest innings (Ethan Hankins). NCAA teams often have their a18-a19 pitchers at 80+ innings, even if they're RP/SP and don't have a rotation spot right out of HS. Sometimes high profile HS commits even hit 100 innings in their first college year. If there was some sort of recipe (pitch count, innings limits, etc.) to prevent UCL tears and losing 18 months of development time for multi-million dollar signing bonus, high profile draft picks, it would be published everywhere for all to see by now. It would absolutely be a set in stone practice in MLB because the MLBPA would demand it.

Tommy John had surgery in September, 1974. He didn't pitch in 1975, but did return 18 months after in April, 1976. John pitched 207 innings when the league leader pitched 315 that year and the 10th highest was 279 innings. So pro-rating things. 18 months down, then 142 innings pitched.

Maybe the Twins should just trade Wallner if they don't want to play him?

You sure are riled up about this, lol. Even a bad team will win 40% of their games and an outstanding team will win 60%.

Miranda is playing 3B because he's enormously more valuable, and much easier to roster if he can play 3B is my best guess. His defense hasn't been great, but Miranda isn't really a platoon guy and if he can hold down 3B with a wRC+ 115ish bat, he's a young, cost controlled, 2.5-3.0 WAR starting caliber 3B. Valuable stuff either for the Twins or to another team with maybe an excess of starting pitching? If he's at 1B/DH, he's a 1.5-2.0 WAR kinda guy. Good enough, but worth upgrading if the team has a chance.

Fastball is hard on the elbow. Velocity has the biggest impact. Curveball is the most stressful per mph, but since it's thrown slower, the overall stress is lower.

Agreed. Woods-Richardson's results were better in the second half, but his underlying numbers weren't exactly glowing. The 20.5% K vs. 12.0% BB was almost exactly the same. The .230 BABIP was unsustainable as was the 0.79/9 HR rate. He didn't pitch better, he just got better results. If Woods-Richardson is able to sustain the velocity improvement for a few games in a stable competitive atmosphere, I'll take notice because I'm pretty sure the results will follow.

Somebody will be selling, but the market will be inferno hot, I expect. The Marlins have Nick Gordon now so I don't think they'll be selling... LOL

Playoff teams. 90+ innings. Mean average leaders in ERA. Twins were Gray, Ober, Lopez for reference. SP1 - 3.13 SP2 - 3.56 SP3 - 3.87 SP4 - 4.08 SP5 - 4.40

I'd be really surprised if the Twins don't grab a front line starter or a bat (if needed) at the trade deadline. $30MM becomes $10MM pro-rated at the deadline.

I don't think the Twins view Raya as a conventional starter at this point. Limiting him to 50 pitches per start last year despite Raya being healthy, and despite allowing him to go to 70-80 pitches the year prior (2022) is clear as day to me on projection. It's pretty common to see college guys throwing 100 innings in a season. That's about where I'd like to see Soto, if he's healthy.

I'm pessimistic about SP2 and SP3 living up to the 3.40-3.80s in ERAs I expect of their peers. That said, taking a look at pitcher results from last year suggests I might be expecting a little too much. SP1 (1-30) = 2.25-3.46 SP2 (31-60) = 3.47-3.87 SP3 (61-90) = 3.91-4.44 SP4 (91-120) = 4.45-5.06 SP5 (121-141) = 5.09-7.40 Wonder if we're headed back into the steroid era for run production.

So, in the tech industry, you know what the definition for an "expert" is? Like, hey, we're bringing in an expert on xyz project. The definition is "somebody who lives more than 500 miles away." Clearly, a tech and analytics driven front office uses that type of philosophy. Margot is an "expert" hitter the Twins brought in.

Woods-Richardson needs to do this for several games in a row before I'll bat an eye. His problem has been keeping steady on his mechanics for years and years and years now. Largely great at 91-92mph; un-rosterable at 88-89mph. I don't know why Woods-Richardson has struggled so much with mechanics, but this is probably his last chance season to remain on a roster and get a good opportunity at the MLB level.

The Twins sold out zero games in September last year. Average attendance was 24k. Max attendance was 32k. Minimum was 18k. The Twins ranked 19th, 20th, 19th in attendance over the past 3 years. Not sure there's a lot of floor left to find as the attendance last year was similar to post contraction talk Metrodome years, but it was up slightly from 2022 (worst attendance since 2001) The Colorado Rockies (59-103) average attendance was 32k last year. Attendance does usually correlate with performance, but it doesn't need to. The Rockies do a great job getting people to come out to the game even if they stink. Dave St. Peter does not.

If Soto is pitching well, I'd hope not. It'd be grounds for termination considering Falvey's already poor success developing pitching. Raya seemed to be on about a 50 max pitch count last year after going up to 70-80 pitches in 2022. I don't even view Raya as a starter anymore after only going 62 innings despite being healthy.

I get the feeling Martin is viewed like Gordon was in 2021.

Kepler hit LHP pretty well in AA. He still hit for power vs. lefties so his splits weren't so brutal. Wallner and Kirilloff have had success at generating respectable power vs. LHP in the upper minors as well. 2015 = .319/.391/.473 OPS .863 (.072 OPS less than RHP) 2014 = .273/.301/.390 OPS .691 (.044 OPS less than RHP) Julien hasn't been able to drive the ball against lefties at all, even in the high minors. I don't think it would be absolutely out of the question Julien could ever kind of hold his own at the MLB level against LHP, but I'd be shocked if he was ever more than serviceable vs. them. If there's a player on the Twins roster who should probably be protected from starting against LHP, it's Julien. Just my opinion.

I'm all for sponsors like Official Fried Chicken. I might even try them again (maybe) after boycotting them last year. I found their chicken good, but their service to be abysmal. Frequently missing items from orders, unable to use sweet spot except through an extremely buggy and tedious mobile app. When items are missing, you have to get into the long line and wait to get to the front to tell them "hey, can you give me my drink I ordered now?" or "I'm missing this part of my order" etc.

Not to mention the platoon advantage itself is a little sketchy. 2023 RHB vs. LHP wRC+ 110 median out of 239 batters with 50+ PA 2023 LHB vs. RHP wRC+ 100 median out of 180 batters with 50+ PA A good hitter takes up 1 roster spot. 2 below average hitters who can hit a little better than average against only RHP or LHP take up 2 roster spots for no net added value, and when the opponents swap RHP/LHP/RHP, you can't keep swapping your hitters back and forth as you're noting.

Sure, Polanco and Brooks Lee could have brought back a young, cost controlled pitcher with an upper rotation ceiling. Might have needed to toss in a guy like Festa to finish that deal for a guy like Luzardo. I don't favor that because I didn't feel the Twins had a lot of upside talent on the farm after trading a ton away for pitching over the past few years. It's become almost a revolving door. Falvey fails to develop pitching, Twins trade farm talent for short term control to solidify their mid/upper rotation.

Does a platoon split even matter when bunting? Baldelli really seems to be infatuated with Margot. After declaring Kirilloff a lost cause for being an outfielder, it's nice to see the Twins put him out there where I think he'd be best utilized and add the most value to the team. Heck of a day for him, too!