bean5302

Got it. Young pitchers who have dominated high minors are no good. Gotta get rid of them and sign some old re-treads to show the Twins are going to compete. Where's Tim Lincecum? We should get him out of retirement! I mean, the Twins only had the 2nd oldest pitching staff in the American League last year... they should go for number 1!

I'd have agreed with this plan... 3 years ago, but just like another thread which proposed mid/back end rotation options, we don't need them and they're counter-productive to the Twins regardless of intent. I threw this together quick. The orange double line is the issue with Greinke. It's the rolling 3 year simple average of his ERAs. Peak Greinke started in 2009 and ended 2015, an excellent run of 7 years. His rolling ERA has been climbing pretty steadily since 2015 as has his rolling FIP, which paints a nice picture of Greinke's trend. I'd say his FIP will probably be somewhere near where it was last year. Maybe a tick better, but over 4.00 in all likelihood. I don't see Greinke as a good fit for the Twins when Minnesota will probably need to find a spot for Winder, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Ober, Bundy, and Ryan in the rotation with Strotman, Jax and Dobnak filling spot start/injury replacement roles. I also don't think Greinke would be remotely interested in playing for a team which doesn't appear to be serious about competing in 2022 and there's long since been a rumor Greinke has a particular dislike of the Twins. The Twins need to aim higher or figure out what they already have in 2022.

I'm vehemently opposed to this line of thinking. The Twins have 2-3 back end guys slated for the rotation already. Bundy, Ober and Ryan. We only have 2 rotation openings at the top of the rotation. We have no space for middle/back end arms. We also have spot start, emergency depth guys like Strotman, Dobnak and Jax. Back end guys do nothing but block prospects who are likely better than the guys proposed above. Winder - Floor #4. Ceiling #1. ETA Opening 2022 Woods-Richardson - Floor #5. Ceiling #2. ETA late 2022 Canterino - Floor #4. Ceiling #2. ETA 2023 Balazovic - Floor #5. Ceiling #3. ETA Early 2022 Duran - Floor RP. Ceiling #2. ETA Late 2022. Stockpiling serviceable veterans while our prospects grow gray beards and we lose out on their best years is the Twins' Way, but I would propose the Twins either go for it now and get the top of the rotation arms they need to compete or don't go for it and find out whether they already have everything they need. Btw, just since I saw this the other day, Maeda is almost certainly out for all of 2022 at this point as he doesn't expect to potentially return until at least September based on his comments recently in Tokyo, Japan. He wasn't expected to even start catching balls until scheduled Spring Training time. https://www.newsdirectory3.com/kenta-maeda-what-are-your-thoughts-on-the-unique-web-of-the-2022-grab-in-the-turtle-shell-full-count/

Jeffers vs. Garver. Batting right against southpaws. wRC+ 99 vs. wRC+ 97 Batting right against righties. wRC+ 73 vs. wRC+ 168 Jeffers couldn't hit righties last year at all while Garver destroyed them. Both catchers were league average against southpaws. Jeffers was entirely exposed and overmatched at the MLB level last year, and while he hit well enough in the minors, it wasn't like he was setting the world on fire down there. The scouting reports found a weakness in Jeffers' plate approach after his small sample of plate appearances in 2020 and his start in 2021. Jeffers will need to adjust his pitch recognition and potentially his swing to make up for his current weaknesses if he wants to remain anything beyond a depth catcher. His defense is average so it's not like he'd be looked at as a defensive wizard saving runs with his mitt, but he's young enough to improve there as well.

I swear... the Byron Buxton vs. Mike Trout comparisons are so ludicrous. Byron Buxton is not a prospect. He's a 7 year veteran who has never once, in his entire career, legitimately approached a single year of Trout's full season production. Ever. Not remotely within reasonable sight. It's as if Buxton had never suffered an injury in his career... You know why a full season matters? Regression. Adjustments to how pitchers approach hitters. The players who play full seasons need to deal with those things and they matter enormously. Buxton never deals with those things because he's on the field for 2 weeks to a month at a time. Buxton's 24 game start in 2021 was similar to 24 game spans by a half dozen recent Twins players with names like Escobar and Santana, but players like Escobar (who was nearly as valuable at SS as Buxton in CF) were never compared to Mike Trout. Joe Mauer's start to 2009 throws a bunch of shade on Buxton's start in 2021, yet Mauer is certainly not considered the greatest player to ever play MLB. Buxton's 24 games after he returned in late August after his 24 game hot start in April? .202/.250/.394, but nutso Twins fans blamed his lingering injury for that despite him raking in AAA before being recalled. It wasn't regression! It couldn't be! Buxton was a .350 hitter for sure! Oh, his (insert one of 10 possible injuries) must be still affecting him is the apologist excuse for Buxton as his zealot-like supporters wilt away in the sunlight. The zealots just waiting for the next 10 game hot streak when they can bloom again and start posting away about how Buxton is the best player in MLB history. Btw, multiplying small game samples of WAR is sketchy when trying to make MVP claims, especially when so much of that player value is based on defensive metrics which do not really smooth out before at least 1/2 a year is played for premium positions. Buxton's fWAR declined from 2.7 to 2.1 before his last 10 games of the season, where it jumped from 2.1 to 4.2... That means, if you project Buxton's last 10 games to 150, Buxton was actually producing at a 32 fWAR over a 150 game pace! Whoa! That's worth $250MM per year according to Fangraphs! MVP! Unanimous first ballot HoF!!! 10 years and $50MM per year! Better than Mike Trout!!! (yes, this is how Twins fans making the Mike Trout claims actually look to the rest of baseball fans. Like raving town idiots.) In my opinion, Byron Buxton will likely never play a full season or qualify for a championship title in his career. Byron Buxton will likely never come close to winning an MVP, even if he plays a full season because he's a 5-6 WAR full season player. That's perennial All Star level if he actually played more than 2.5 months in the first half of the season, and it should be good enough. When Buxton manages to even make an All Star Game (he's never been an All Star in his 7 year career), I'll start recognizing him more. At least fans should wait for an All Star Game for a 7 year veteran before making comparisons to a player who was a first ballot Hall of Famer by age 28 and is on the path to being the greatest player in MLB history.

Impressive you got Kris Bryant for 5yrs and $80MM while Buxton fought you for 8yrs and $190MM haha

It's a catch-22. Because of the anti-trust exemption, if the MLBPA negotiates with MLB to create the CBA, then it's okay. If MLB does it on their own, it can be viewed as unfair labor practice and collusion which absolutely would be a problem in the courts. MLB unilaterally setting rules which were viewed as directly manipulating the free agent market was why Judge Sotomayer ruled against owners in 1995 and blocked the teams from playing with replacement players. Without a union, MLB has to be very careful about compensation and work condition rules. This whole mess boils down to the MLBPA having exceptionally lousy leadership.

He's not as rough vs. lefties as you make him out to be. Of the 92 left handed hitters in MLB with 170+ plate appearances vs left handed pitching, the median wRC+ was 85. Luis Arraez's career wRC+ against lefties is wRC+ 88. Certainly not good, but not "horrible" at least in my opinion.

Arraez was 22-24 while Buxton was 25-27. Arraez and Buxton have similar bWAR values (6.0 vs. 6.3), games played (245 vs 260) and plate appearances (966 vs. 936) through their age 22-24 seasons. The obsession with Buxton around here...

Then the front office deals with the failure. Not making the trade is just as bad as making a bad trade.

The NFL has done it previously in 1987 and threatened to do it again in 2011. If there is no CBA in place, the "Basic Agreement" which governs contracts under the CBA becomes void. I'm sure the MLBPA would sue. In the United States, you can sue for whatever you want, trillions even. It doesn't mean the MLBPA would be successful. In the meantime, unless an injuction was imposed based on a complaint filed for unfair labor practices by the MLBPA, the league would continue to operate and the players would continue earning nothing while they watch their permanent jobs start being earned by the former MiLB players. Any lawsuit would have to be ended as a condition of any future CBA MLB would agree to so it's pretty moot. In such a scenario, the MLBPA would break in days or weeks. While it's possible the MLBPA would be dissolved, it's unlikely because even MLB wouldn't want a total free for all. It's more likely the players would have a new set of rules much less favorable crammed down their throats as the season goes on and fans continue going to games. You may disagree, but that's how I see things.

I'd honestly expect owners to move ahead with replacement players relatively quickly once the regular season games start needing to be canceled due to a CBA not being finalized. Remember, MLB recently culled a number of MiLB teams leaving a whole lot of baseball player talent with no where to go and MiLB players would happily cross the picket lines for a shot at the big show. Even 40 man roster players would be seriously tempted since the MLBPA has done absolutely nothing for MiLB players while the owners have recently sowed dissent with the MiLB players and the MLBPA by improving working conditions recently. The MLBPA would be powerless except for to once again, file an unfair labor practice charge; however, the reason the last one was successful was because of several key moves amounting to collusion to alter the actual market for players. Also, it helped that one of the most liberal judges in the US was hearing the case. There's no guarantee the MLBPA would be effective this time around... and if they were to lose, the MLBPA would crumble apart entirely. The union would be broken and a new union would need to be formed.

MiLB are often not owned by the same people as the MLB franchise. MiLB owners spend millions to secure a affiliate contract with MLB and work out a final contract with an MLB franchise. St. Paul Saints tickets are already harder to get, and often more expensive in the secondary market, than Twins tickets for any given game. Punishing the MiLB players who want to play in front of a crowd and the MiLB franchise owners who are often turning very small profits because you're mad at the owners of MLB isn't rational.

I've long held the opinion teams can trade any player and it won't matter a bit to the fans when it comes to putting butts in the seats or revenue to the team based on what's happened after the Twins saw the departure of some of the recently most popular players. 1996 - Kirby Puckett was gone, attendance was up. 2008 - Torii Hunter & Johan Santana were gone, attendance was up. 2019 - Joe Mauer was gone, attedance was up. There are some instances of course where attendance was down (Hrbek, Cuddyer, Morneau), but it's not like it fell off a cliff or something. Bottom line? In my opinion, fans are fans of the team, not the individual players so fans will almost always find a new favorite player. Arraez or Polanco. One of them really should be traded. Based on just how good Polanco has been over the past 3 years combined, he has to be considered a bonefide All Star caliber player and he's still inexpensive with multiple years of team control. Arraez still has some question marks due to his knees and conditioning. Doctors told Arraez to lose weight and do squats to strengthen his legs and improve his knee health. He didn't, he missed a bunch of games and slumped down the stretch. I love the type of game Arraez brings to baseball. He makes a lot of solid, line drive contact which makes the game more exciting to watch, but there are question marks and he's redudant on the roster if the Twins keep Polanco.

Baseball markets sort of work on general metro areas. The immediate city and surrounding 30 minute area has the Twins with a 25%+ population advantage over Cleveland. Having that immediate area advantage is important for attendance and contributes to game day revenues. There's also the median household income. MSP = $84k. Greater Cleveland = $57k. https://community.fangraphs.com/the-importance-of-the-30-minute-population-radius-on-mlb-attendance/ Cincinatti is further from Cleveland than Duluth is from Minneapolis, and if you expand the metros out within reason, Minneapolis/St. Paul generally owns a significant advantage in population density. It's tough for me to consider the markets super comparable. Though if you expand things out far enough, Ohio is a much bigger state than Minnesota overall. Even so, in the northwest of the state, Toledo, OH is Detroit Tigers area and Pittsburgh starts to get as close to Cleveland as suburbs east and south of Canton. So there are 4 baseball teams Ohio residents might consider their "home" team. Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Cincinatti Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates.

I think the dump in payroll reflects the Guardians entering a tank/rebuild cycle which is employed by all small market teams and most mid market teams in some capacity. The White Sox and Tigers are going to own the division for probably 2-3 years at least with the Royals next, the Guardians and Twins at the bottom if I had to wager right now. A change in ownership in Cleveland would likely accelerate their rebuild and make them a better team on average, but Cleveland is still small market so I don't see a fundamental change coming. Besides, small market Cleveland and Kansas City have already had opening day payrolls higher than the mid-market Twins have ever seen. Maybe the competent ownership change that's necessary is in Minnesota, not Ohio.

I think I misunderstood the intention of your original response. I read it as don't trade Sano even at the deadline when it seems you meant, don't trade him before he has an opportunity to build some value during the regular season because you're convinced his value is currently nil so the Twins lose nothing by holding/waiting. I'd agree with the expectation his value is low; however, I don't know for sure that's the case. If the CBA includes a full time DH in the NL, Sano could have more significant value than expected after his hot finish to the season. I'd rather the Twins trade him now if they can get something for him rather than risk him having another horrible start to the year. Sano was rocking a .196/.279/.426 triple slash for a .705 OPS at the All Star Break last year. That's good for about an OPS+ or wRC+ of 85-ish. Now that is truly no value.

You mean like if Miguel Sano was worth extending then he would also have trade value...

So you think he'll have no trade value, but he'll totally be worth extending? Aside from that, I'm not sure where you get durable and athletic? Sano barely qualified for the batting title last year for the very first time in his entire career, but still missed nearly 30 games during the season. It was the first time in his career he's played more than 116 games. In regard to athleticism, that left him some years ago. He's now a well below average speed runner and his quickness and range departed several years ago. Even his glove has turned to stone as he put together an unimaginably poor defensive effort in 2021.

Sano's last year with the Twins is this one. He'll be traded before the start of the season, at the deadline if he has value or he'll be allowed to become a free agent at the end of the year. During his time on the active roster, he'll serve as a DH.

I mean... I could use the 4 games and 17.1 innings in AAA where Winder was apparently dealing with a shoulder impingement the Twins also called dead arm, but you just accused me of cherry picking based on 10 games and 54.2 innings. Also, Winder earned his promotion to AAA after only 10 starts and 54.2 innings because the Twins saw whatever it was they wanted to see and were confident he was ready for the next level fast. The shoulder is of some concern. The performance was dominant. The other pitchers in the list provided were never dominant at the high minors level.

Career numbers in AA 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 10.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.90 K:BB (Alex Meyer) 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 2.14 K:BB (Trevor May) 4.22 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 7.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 2.03 K:BB (Tyler Jay) 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.55 K:BB (Kohl Stewart) 2.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 10.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.96 K:BB (Stephen Gonsavles) 3.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Fernando Romero) 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.7 H/9, 5.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Felix Jorge) 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.21 K:BB (Aaron Slegers) 3.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.80 K:BB (Adalberto Mejia) 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 10.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.31 K:BB (Lewis Thorpe) 1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.50 K:BB (Josh Winder) Perhaps that illustrates just a little bit better as to why Josh Winder might be worth keeping. The closest competitor to Winder is Stephen Gonsalves, who was throwing 90mph in his first stint in MLB and had a single borderline plus pitch and 2 other average MLB offerings. Winder has 4 MLB pitches and 2 plus pitches with a 3rd borderline plus pitch. The two are not remotely comparable. When you have a pitcher who is absolutely dominant at AA, that's uncommon. When you have a guy who is dominant in the high minors and they have the stuff to back up the performance, that's something rare and important to keep an eye on.

I'd be willing to bet the new CBA is going to include a salary floor at least $100MM. It was proposed by the owners because the big teams are sick and tired of being unable to wean some teams off revenue sharing and because it will support the move of teams like Oakland and Tampa to better markets/stadiums.

I think that's a pretty big leap. There's no reason to leak anything since teams can still discuss trades all they like so the Twins can just pick up a phone and call whomever they'd like. Also, with the lockout ongoing, season ticket sales aren't going to be busy no matter what so appeasing the fans at this point probably doesn't do much.

I think the ceiling on Winder is higher than mid rotation. I think the midpoint is #3 and I think the floor is #4-5 at this point, barring injuries. I'm more optimistic about Winder than any of our other pitching prospects. Winder has a 4 pitch mix. Personally, I believe a 4+ pitch mix is virtually required for upper rotation arms. Beyond the 4 pitches, though, he has multiple plus offerings (fastball and slider) with a borderline plus changeup and a decent curveball. When you see a 4 pitch mix with a couple plus offerings and another good offering, that's a recipe for success. Winder was absolutely dominant at AA last year. He didn't give up hits or allow walks. He also struck out 10.7 per 9 innings while also efficiently eating innings with less than 15 pitches per inning. At 100 pitches, Winder would average 7 innings per start. Even though Winder stumbled a bit in AAA, his swinging strike rate, walk rate and efficiency were all solid. The only warning flag for me was the shutdown over the shoulder. Winder talked about his shutdown being purely precautionary, but it does feel like there may have been a bit more to it.