bean5302

The scouting profiles are Martin are have less elation built in. Fangraphs Hit 50/60, Game Power 30/40, Speed 50/50, Field 35/45, FV 50 MLB Hit 65, Power 45, Run 55, Arm 45, Field 50, Overall 55 Prospects Live Hit 70, Power 50, Run 50, Arm 50, Field 55, OFP 55 pre-draft Baseball America Hit 70, Power 55, Run 55, Arm 50, Field 50 Basically, it's universally expected Martin's hit tool will be excellent, but he's an average runner with perhaps below average power and throwing skills. That said, scouting reports can be pretty subjective. Martin strikes me as a high floor, medium ceiling kind of player at this point. Grades on his speed and arm are average, but scouting reports are subjective. The best comp for him on the Twins is probably somewhere between Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco. If Martin does work out that way, he could be a 3-4 WAR player with a couple career All Star Game appearances.

MiLB stats prove a player is ready for a promotion. It doesn't prove they'll perform in MLB. I use Chris Parmelee as an example all the time. a24 AAA = .338/.457/.645 1.102 OPS, 18% BB, 18% K. .307 ISO I think Miranda will be good, but I'm not willing to make his comp a former MVP based on a single year of performance in the minors after he was left exposed to the rule 5. If that's what we were doing, Jermaine Palacios should be the Twins' #5 prospect.

I grovel at the feet of your army of strawman arguments. Please enlighten me, oh master of strawmen! Back to reality. 57% of Miguel Sano's .847 OPS was batting average and Sano's 2nd half batting average of .250 was the same as the median MLB hitter with 200+ plate appearances. His batting average in the 2nd half was average. Normal. Nowhere have I or would I say batting average is the only component which matters in offensive production. It is; however, an important one. You using OPS (which almost 60% constructed of batting average alone in the example you gave) as the offensive metric which is important speaks volumes here. Let's use your preferred example. Miguel Sano. 1st Half - .196/.279/.426 OPS .705 wRC+ 91 with a 10.1% BB adding 83pts to OPS and ISO adding 230. 2nd Half - .250/.343/.504 OPS .847 wRC+ 129 with a 12.0% BB adding 93pts to OPS and ISO adding 254. What was the difference between 10% below average to 30% above average performance? Batting average. 108pts of OPS was all batting average. 10pts was BB rate. 24pts was extra base hits. Miguel Sano's batting average made 10x more of a difference in his OPS than walks and 5x more than his extra base hits. Had his walk rate and power remained identical from the first half to the second half, Sano still would have gone from OPS .705 to OPS .813 and from 10% worse than average to 20% better all on batting averge alone.

Nobody compared Miranda to Donaldson. Donaldson had an extremely unlucky year last year, which is totally out of character for his history. Donaldson is one of the best hitters in MLB and he was playing on a hurt calf. Donaldson could easily rebound and put up a 4-5 WAR season this year. Miranda putting together an average starting third baseman season at 2.5 bWAR wouldn't be comparing him to Donaldson, but the number of every day starters at the top end of any team's farm system is low. I think Twins fans are a little high on Miranda right now, but only time will tell whether the excitement is warranted. The Twins' system is pretty deep with potential so Miranda could be anywhere in the top 8ish.

Lewis' ability to stick at shortstop depends on his ability to stop making errors instead of outs. His arm has been questioned somewhat due to a slower than optimal release, but the Twins and Lewis were said to have worked a lot on that during 2020's off site. I think Lewis will either quickly silence the doubters or he'll fall out of the top 20 Twins prospects this year. I doubt there's much middle ground to be honest. Let's hope he tears it up!

SSS's are SSS regardless of the metric you look at. Batting average is about 1/3-1/2 of the value in On Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) as batting average is counted twice in OPS, being the largest component of both On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for most players. Willie McGee posted a .746 OPS (94 OPS+) in 1987. Batting average accounted for 3/4 (.570) of his entire OPS (.746). https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-the-deadened-baseball-could-alter-mlb-strategy-in-2021/ "Major League Baseball sent a memo to all 30 teams in February outlining changes to the ball for the upcoming season. The changes, which were first reported by The Athletic, were designed to deaden the ball in response to the soaring home run rates of recent years. A record 6,776 home runs were hit during the 2019 season. The home run rate of 6.6% in 2019 decreased only slightly to 6.5% in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season." MLB is very much trying to get more balls put into play in the field.

Prospect rankings are valuable; however, they're hardly steadfastly reliable and Hicks was a concensus top 30 prospect. Benson cracked Baseball America's top 100. They were good. They were recognized as good. Draft position determines a heck of a lot in regard to prospect rankings in the early years. Even so, the number 1 overall draft pick is expected to perform at a high level right out of the gate. "Generally against much older and experienced competition" is the apologist excuse for every single underperforming Twins prospect profiled on this site since it's founding. It's valid, to an extent, with rough prospects. Guys taken in 3rd round and later or really raw guys taken later in the first round. It is much less acceptable as an excuse for the #1 overall pick. While I'm bullish on Lewis because I want him to succeed and I really love his athleticism and attitude, "against much older and experienced competition" doesn't mean he should be terrible defensively (he was) and it provides precious little excuse for back to back below average offensive performances in A+ and AA. Lewis' prospect rank is irrelevant as it doesn't have an impact on when or if the Twins call him up and doesn't change his contract. Looking at the recent history of 1st overall draft picks and how many years of experience playing in the minors before they started playing at the MLB level, the pattern is pretty evident. The first overall pick usually moves quickly through the minors because they're playing extremely well (against players who are much older and more experienced). 2010 = 2yrs a19 (2x MVP, 6x All Star, RoY) 2011 = 2yrs a22 (4x All Star) 2012 = 3yrs a20 (2x All Star, RoY) 2013 = 3yrs AAA, retired after multiple shoulder injuries, returned 2014 = 1yr A Ball, retired after injuries 2015 = 1yr, a22 (Average MLB Starting SS) 2016 = 4yrs, a22 (has not looked good) 2017 = 4yrs, AA, a22 (Royce Lewis) 2018 = 2yrs, a23 (3.2 bWAR in 2021, looks potentially mid-rotation) 2019 = 2yrs, AAA, a23 (solid defense, dominant bat high minors as catcher last year) 2020 = 1yr, AAA, a21 (crushed high minors pitching, 1.157 OPS in AFL. will start season in MLB probably) 2021 = 1yr, A+, a22 (.308/.387/.808, OPS 1.195 in Rk and A+ last year after draft as catcher) IMHO, Lewis needed 2020 off so he could spend time at the off site working to address the major issues in his game which were widely exposed in A+ and AA and I think put him into a position where he was likely to struggle at AA again. The loss of 2021 really sucked for everybody, but for Lewis who hasn't been impressive considering his draft position so far, it's given him a chance to mature, address issues in his approaches and game and hopefully the athleticism will shine. Either he has what it takes or he doesn't and that will likely all be known in a few short months of play because the excuses time has totally run out. If Lewis struggles both at the plate and in the field again in the minors, the books can be closed on him in a few short months. It will be because all the altheticism in the world doesn't mean guys will be able to track and adjust to breaking balls or have the confidence to field balls cleanly and throw accurately.

Are you talking about Sano's batting average or batting average in general? If it's batting average in general, I think that's way too bold of a statement. Batting average is very important. It's usually about 1/3 of a player's overall offensive production and almost never less than 1/4. I also think we're going to see an increase in the importance of batting average because I believe MLB is trying to reign in the days of the true 3 outcome hitter dominating MLB lineups.

Boras is irrelevant in my opinion. The Twins will pay whatever it is they think a player is worth and they'll almost certainly have 8+ years of team control over Rocker where Boras really isn't an issue anyway. I think Rocker will probably go off the board before the Twins have a chance to draft him if Rocker remains healthy and pitches in dominant fashion. I think he's equally (more) likely to blow out his UCL and need to take whatever any team is giving him, to be honest. In the case Rocker blows his UCL out, the Twins should be able to pick him up in later rounds... much later if MLB adopts the age 29.5 free agency rule. Guessing round 5+. Personally, I think Rocker took one for Boras and other college players last year by not signing at the reduced value, though I doubt he realized the risk. He's already 22. Figure a bare minimum of 2 years in the minors, then 6 years of team control and Rocker hits free agency at 30. If MLB adopts the 29.5 age free agency policy, Rocker will be less attractive to teams because he'll probably be a free agent after 4-5 years on the 40 man.

Royce Lewis' signing bonus was $6.725 million and he doesn't have a single decent performance in the minors at shortstop. Painting him as some sort of tragic victim of ill fate is a bit much. Lewis has the athleticism to be a Hall of Famer, but plenty of players had the physical attributes. For every Ron Acuna, there are 10 Aaron Hicks' and 100 Joe Bensons. The median household (including multiple people) income in the United States was $67,000. Royce Lewis' signing bonus was greater than the average household in the United States would earn in 2.5 lifetimes of work. At 5% interest on his net, after tax bonus, Royce Lewis would earn $200,000 a year on interest alone without ever working another day in his life

Looking at Sano's home runs in a vacuum make him look good, but evaluating his overall play turns him into a poor performing MLB player... or even a below average AAA replacement player. It's not the strikeouts, per se. It's how he strikes out and when he strikes out. Sano is an automatic out when the opposing team needs it which is why Sano consistently posts negative WPAs (Win Probability Added) and Sano's horrendous defense coupled with his poor on base skills and base running mitigate his offensive value in more traditional metrics. Then there are his personality and effort issues. Sano is a not a good MLB player, but he's got good power. I doubt anybody in here wouldn't absolutely love seeing a future where Sano shows up in shape at 225lbs and committed to working hard to improve his game in all facets. He'd be a 5 WAR player if he did this. Instead, he looks more like Oswaldo Arcia to me.

The rotation is a long, long way from fixed. If we sign Rodon. If Winder performs. If Balazovic performs. If Ober doesn't have a sophomore slump. If Ryan doesn't have a sophomore slump. If Bundy is able to hold down his spot in the rotation until either Balazovic or Winder is ready. There are 5 ifs in the rotation right now. They're all ifs. I think some are a high probability, but the rotation was horrible last year and the 2 best pitchers aren't going to be pitching for the Twins this year. The one signing the Twins made was a guy who signed on a contract so small, many teams would happily cut him before the end of Spring Training. I'm optimistic about the rotation this year, but I'm also prepared for it to potentially come apart.

Well, it actually wasn't much of an extension. Sano was under team control for 2020-2021 already. the "extension" bought out Sano's arbitration years and 1 year of his free agency (2022) with 1 additional year of free agency (2023) as a team option. Do the Twins wish they hadn't done it? Sure, but it's not like Sano wouldn't have remained on the team last year (what would have been his final arbitration year). In the grand scheme of things, it's not a big deal. I'd guess Sano would get $5-8MM on the free agent market right now so the Twins are really only overpaying him by a few million for one year (provided we have baseball this year...)

I see Jhoan Duran as a Fernando Romero type right now. Way, way overhyped. First, I feel it's a longshot Duran avoids being relegated to the bullpen... and that's if he can actually get guys out in the high minors enough for him to earn a spot on the big league roster. I might have Duran in the top 20 Twins prospects right now, but probably not in the top 15.

Sub-600 OPS and far below average defense at shortstop. I don't understand the interest here. Robertson looks like MiLB depth who is likely to be released if there aren't injury concerns and our prospects move up.

The answer to the question is... Yes. The Twins seem very incapable of developing shortstops who can field balls cleanly. I don't understand why the error rate for Twins infielders, particularly shortstops is so high, but it's an obvious issue in my opinion.

Woods-Richardson was an MLB's #93, Fangraphs' #76, Bleacher Reports #78 prospect in 2020/entering 2021 and was the cornerstone of the Marcus Stroman trade. While he's unranked this year among top 100 lists, he hasn't really changed. There's little surprise Woods-Richardson's struggled with control after losing 2020 and half of the 2021 season due to just sitting on a bench for his name to be called in the Olympics. People can point fingers all they want in regard to fault for that situation, but as a young prospect developing mechanics, the loss of playing time is about the worst possible thing which can happen. It also would explain why the Twins put him on the Development List rather than assigning him directly to AA after he arrived back from Tokyo last year. Woods-Richardson's MLB scouting report lists his pitches as Four seam fastball, curveball, slider, changeup. I haven't seen much in regard to scouting on his slider, but what's out there indicates it's an MLB caliber offering, just not his best. Woods-Richardson's curveball and changeup both have plus potential. Basically, Woods-Richardson has the stuff to get the job done and has shown impressive performances into the high minors despite aggressive promotions. There's some projection potential left in his fastball and the Twins have been very successful so far in getting a little extra velocity from mechanical adjustments on other prospects. There's a reason Woods-Richardson was so highly coveted by the Blue Jays and by the Twins. The negativity directed at his stock is unwarranted at this point.

It'll really be exciting to see Lewis take off in the minors this year. Listening to him in interviews he says all the right stuff and it matches with all the information out there on him. Fantastic work ethic, great personality, born leader, 5 tool athleticism. Just everything fans want to see.

I've also heard people believe the Earth is flat and that Russia isn't being aggressive and that truckers aren't blockading Canada because of mask mandates. The head of the MLBPA is officially on record the revenue split is acceptable. It's 50/50 split and MLBPA has no issues with the numbers which had been provided by MLB owners. Clark addressed the conspiracy theories in 2015 and 2018. “Despite what you may have read or heard at any given time, the quote-unquote ‘player share’ is as close to 50-50 as it has been in a long time,” Clark said. https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/2/21/17035624/mlb-revenue-sharing-owners-players-free-agency-rob-manfred

I'm cautious about Miller. I want to see some production before I get too excited.

A search I made suggested that MiLB are not paid and have not been paid for participating in Spring Training. So my argument is above is at least partially wrong. MLB is arguing MiLB players should not be paid and they do not have the intention of paying them.

Yeah... so the position has nothing to do with MLB planning not to pay players in Spring Training and everything to do with increasing their leverage in a pending class action lawsuit MLB will likely win. MLB is seeking to invalidate one of the arguments in the lawsuit, not necessarily make real changes. In other words, MLB is arguing it shouldn't "have" to pay the players, not that it is trying to "not" pay the players. In any case, companies make moves like this all the time. Years ago I ran a website which evaluated products and specialized in a specific manufacturer. The company sent us a cease and desist order and we were forced to make some changes. We didn't make any money and you could decide they were being ridiculous using all their power against a tiny little internet site, but you'd be wrong. Defending their structure and legal rights is required in all instances, not just whenever companies feel like it. If a company doesn't defend it's rights, those rights can be considered abandoned. By the way, MLB's argument seems pretty strong under U.S. law in my opinion and it's more reflective of laws which allow employers across the country to abuse workers. Fix the laws, don't expect companies to operate as charities.

Side note, the owners failed to offer a counter proposal after what could hardly be described as an offer by the MLBPA and I think would be much better categorized as an inflammatory statement lowering their request from $105MM to $100MM for pre-arbitration bonus pool. Not that the haters of the MLB owners would have thought about this, but other than the $100MM reduction to revenue sharing initially proposed by the MLBPA and their subsequent reduction by $30MM (which owners dispute is accurate), the $105MM bonus pool would also come out of revenue sharing making the proposal tantamount to a $170-200MM reduction in revenue sharing overall proposed by the MLBPA. To be honest, it's hard for me to respect any position critical of the owners and supportive of the MLBPA's positions in negotiations right now.

and those are large cap index's you're talking about. The mutual funds which are based on the S&P 500 are considered Large Cap Blend funds which are not aggressive, and you're talking about groups of stocks similar to mutual funds rather than individual stocks like Amazon or Tesla. In addition, if you're talking about internal profits, rates are typically much higher than you're expecting across many industries. Financial companies expect a ROE of approximately 12-14% for example, @Ted Schwerzler. It's common for me to speculate about things I'm not an expert about, but where I've formed some sort of hypothesis, but it seems you're really out of your element. It's easy to create scapegoats out of successful businesspeople, and depending on the complaint, your mileage may vary on how accurate it is.

I think Donaldson would have benefitted from a longer stint off recovering from his calf injury last year, but the Twins just didn't have the guys on the roster they wanted to cover the position. Glad to see Sano managed more plate appearances than ever before. I don't like to see anybody missing games because of injury.