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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I attended the game last night along with 10,000 other people. Nearly stepped in dog$#!^ on the way in. Dogs have absolutely no place at sporting events or in stadiums. Not sure why dog owners think their pup is actually a short furry human, but I suppose that's the reason 99% of dogs are extremely poorly trained. They were tolerable last night. Some barking, but not bad. Didn't see any accidents, but I wasn't sitting in the dog section.
  2. bean5302
    The Mariners did not want Desclafani, but the Giants needed to purge payroll in order to absorb Robbie Ray. The Mariners had no plans to use Desclafani in the rotation The Mariners didn't want to add to their payroll after making so many offseason transactions. About 29 MLB teams were interested in the Mariners cost controlled rotation arms. There's no doubt the Twins were one of them. I'm sure Seattle pitched Desclafani to all 29 of them, but obviously nobody was interested because he had poor results and has been injured. As a free agent, he was a MiLB contract kinda guy. I just cannot imagine Falvey being so incompetent he actually asked for Desclafani when the Twins did not need another back end rotation arm and there were so many other options going for cheap on the market. But faced with the option of having nobody else interested in Polanco's contract, Falvey accepted Desclafani and cash with the hopes it would work out in the rotation. This to me is the most likely scenario.
  3. bean5302
    Back issues for what seems like so many young players these days. It would have been nice to know more about Lee's issue earlier, but the Twins guard info as if each and every player is a starting NFL quarterback the other teams are prepping for on Sunday. Hopefully, this clears up for Lee. I've never known somebody (and I've known many) people with a disc herniation who never had another problem with it again, but there are times where it doesn't show up for months or a couple years.
  4. bean5302
    From 2020-2024, Carlos Correa's rank is 55th in all of MLB for games played. He's qualified as a hitter every single year and was the only Twins player to qualify last year. He's currently hitting .306/.432/.444 OPS .876 wRC+ 165.
  5. bean5302
    You're creating a strawman and bringing him to a semantics fight. The Twins wanted to shed the 6x redundant Polanco's contract to add to the roster and meet the lower payroll budget they had. The Twins undoubtedly wanted to shed more of Polanco's contract, but Falvey waited too long and had to eat a $4MM Desclafani sandwich served by the Mariners. The net savings for trading Polanco was the $5MM Falvey then used to sign a different, and completely unrelated player they would not have otherwise been able to sign. That's the point. In order to sign people and meet the $25-30MM target reduction in their payroll, Polanco's contract had to be moved to save money.
  6. bean5302
    Levine tried to get "out of here" last year and the Red Sox didn't even want to see him for a 2nd round of interviews. Being GM of the Twins is one of the most coveted jobs in the world, and I bet you'd absolutely desperately seize the opportunity if it were offered to you. I would. Every poster on this site probably has it as a dream job. The Twins are operating at $130MM this year with an estimated $163MM in luxury tax payroll. Right in line with being a mid-market team, consistent with their revenues. Their spending rank has been higher than their attendance rank for like 5 years running. If the Twins were running a payroll of $60 or $80 or even $100MM, you might have a leg to stand on. Instead, they have the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central and the Pohlad's have green lighted major, if not huge, free agent contracts and expenditures in recent years.
  7. bean5302
    Personally, I think the Polanco trade was for: 1) cutting payroll 2) acquiring something in return I think what the Twins actually got stemmed from: 1) Falvey sitting on his hands far, far too long before making moves rather than being aggressive resulting in the number of potential partners evaporating. 2) Falvey being unable to sell Polanco's value or simply overestimating his value (as he did badly with Buxton in '21) 3) Falvey finally having to settle on a package which was valuable... but not the value the Twins actually needed.
  8. bean5302
    Where Kirilloff was actually deployed is not relevant to your statement or my challenge of its accuracy. What Falvey and Baldelli were on record saying (prior to the season and the acquisition of Santana) is that Kirilloff was no longer viewed as a viable outfielder. He was viewed exclusively as a 1B/DH. I like Kirilloff getting outfield opportunities because I think that's where he'll provide the most value. That said, you thinking the Santana move was to get Kirilloff into the outfield more means you thought both Falvey and Baldelli were lying on record about their planned utilization and view of Kirilloff as a potential outfield option. Quite frankly, if Falvey and Baldelli were lying, that makes Santana's signing even worse, because it means the Twins could have easily and happily parted ways with Kepler by moving Kirilloff to left field.
  9. bean5302
    Agreed. Julien's approach feels about the same, and we're definitely dealing with a SSS given how infrequently Julien makes contact with pitches. His FB rate is double last year at the cost of a big drop off in line drive rate, but I think it's just SSS at only 41 batted balls in play. Personally, I don't think Julien is cut out to be an elite hitter based on his weaknesses, but he can be good.
  10. bean5302
    I don't think I saw anybody mention this, but Varland's 47% strike vs. 53% ball rate isn't going to win any games.
  11. bean5302
    This despite the fact Falvey was vocal that Kirilloff wasn't viewed as a potential outfielder at all?
  12. bean5302
    I don't think it's likely Rodriguez's contact skills will improve much without a big change to his swing. How much his contact rate drops as he gets promoted is debatable. Like Julien, Rodriguez takes a gazillion walks so it's just tough to say what that looks like at the MLB level. There aren't a lot of guys like him.
  13. bean5302
    Varland's "stuff" suggested it would be a stretch for him to be successful in the rotation. He's not been successful, and there's not much to support the idea he can turn it around. If Varland won't make the adjustments necessary because "he's not comfortable" with a pitch, all the more reason to pull the plug and get him back into the 'pen were he was good. The Twins need to hand the ball to Woods-Richardson and they need to look for a veteran depth signing now.
  14. bean5302
    Nick Gordon cost $900k this year. His line is .213/.255/.447 OPS .702, thanks in part to a rough .219 BABIP. His xwOBA suggests he's just about where he should be so probably not a lot of luck involved one way or the other. For $900k, a wRC+ of 89 is perfectly fine. Twins utility players are making $3.5-6.3MM this year. That's luxury spending. Utility guys are the LAST guys you spend money on. I despised the Carlos Santana signing, like truly deeply despised it because I felt Kirilloff/Miranda was a better option. Actually, I felt like Miranda as a full time starter vs. both left/right was a better answer and it would have saved another $4.5MM the Twins needed to put towards a starter or a legit DH. I have nothing against Santana at all, and it'd be great to see him start really hitting because the Twins certainly need the help. Hopefully something clicks with a few guys soon!
  15. bean5302
    It's pretty easy to predict their contributions, though. With a healthy Correa and Lewis on the roster, Farmer and Castro wouldn't have gotten much playing time to contribute in the first place. The Twins rid excess utility players just to bring more back in.
  16. bean5302
    I've done that analysis before and you're dead wrong even if it "feels" like that shouldn't be the case. No legs to stand on at all. Feel free to spend a few hours looking at mid/upper rotation pitchers, and how often they leave games at 5.0+ innings under 4.00 ERA in recent years. Over 50% is very solid. It's why I put Sonny Gray in the comparison because I knew he wasn't going to be a lot better. For a mid/upper rotation starter, $11MM (he made $15MM) is a ludicrously good deal, (let alone the $6MM he made in 2021).
  17. bean5302
    I suspect the ownership will purge the front office if the season goes poorly. After all, this is the final year for Falvey's contract and Pohlad hinted ownership's on the field expectations have been raised as of last year. If things turn around and the Twins advance in the playoffs, I suspect Falvey will get an extension.
  18. bean5302
    Looks like that potential bullpen option is 100% out for the Twins. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/twins-daniel-duarte-to-undergo-season-ending-elbow-surgery.html
  19. bean5302
    First, Berrios was not awful the following year. The Blue Jays won like 65% of the games Berrios started that season because Berrios had some clunkers, but overall pitched very solid in 2022 despite the negative perception. In 17 of his 32 starts and 172 innings pitched in 2022, Berrios went at least 5 innings and left the game with an ERA under 4.00. In 14 of those starts, he left the game with an ERA of 3.00 or lower. The replacement for Berrios, Sonny Gray, had 5.0+ innings and an ERA under 4.00 in 14 of his 24 starts and 119.2 innings. He had an ERA of 3.00 or under in 13 of his starts where he pitched 5.0+ innings. Berrios was not far off from Gray on any given start, Gray just had a couple fewer big clunkers mixed in. Second, there were other offers on the table for Berrios and other players the front office could have chosen from Toronto. The Twins were extremely unlikely to keep Berrios until the 2022 trade deadline if they didn't move him at the 2021 deadline. The team would have traded him at the end of the 2021 season to maximize their return, anyway. Falvey has acquired 0.1 fWAR for a young, 1.5 year controlled, inexpensive, durable, mid/upper rotation starter. That's a blunder, plain and simple. What matters is what the real return for the Twins' assets. If it makes you feel better, you can say both teams lost the trade so both GMs should be fired, but I bet money the Blue Jays make that trade over again today while the Twins would love to have it back.
  20. bean5302
    First run of the game was a comedy of poor fielding. Julien muffed the ball, then double-clutched it, then it was like Vazquez couldn't even see it as the throw sailed 6" wide of his glove. Then in the 3rd, Julien dropped a throw which would have caught the runner at 2B on a Tigers steal attempt that cost a run. Then, same inning, Vazquez literally drops the pitch trying to transition to a throw which led to another Tigers steal of 2B, followed by yet another single that scores a run. Buxton hard core pimps a fly ball he thinks is a home run which turns at least a 3B into a 2B, though, the fly probably should have been caught in the first place. What do we hear post game? Joe Ryan pity party as if the cluster of home runs he gave up in the last half of 2023 were all just bad luck and life just keeps shipping him lemons, though I appreciate Ryan handling the blown strike called a ball better than his manager, at least. Baldelli had a little meltdown about the bad call before possibly talking his way out of a fine. The Twins lost because they didn't hit and didn't field at an MLB caliber level.
  21. bean5302
    I've never subscribed to the theory of the frozen in time trade value. While Martin and Woods-Richardson were considered an pretty massive overpay by the Blue Jays at the time, all that matters is what actually happened. 1. Austin Martin immediately tanked in prospect value. 2021 - Trade deadline +42.6 2021 - Season end +30.8 2022 - Trade deadline +11.0 2023 - Trade deadline +3.7 Current +4.2 (less than Manuel Margot's 5.5) 2. Simeon Woods-Richardson immediately tanked in prospect value. 2021 - Trade deadline +22.3 2021 - Season end +9.6 2022 - Trade deadline +5.4 2023 - Trade deadline +2.1 Current +1.7 (less than Brent Headrick's 2.1) The Twins needed to get value for Berrios. Instead, they whiffed (so far). A non-rental, low cost, mid/front rotation arm is worth a fortune. Especially if it was the first legitimate playoff starter caliber arm the franchise had developed in a decade. I liked the trade right from the start, and it was considered so lopsided in favor of the Twins that Baseballtradevalues.com wouldn't even accept the proposal without the Twins adding $20MM in cash at the time. Regardless of what was supposed to happen according to Baseballtradevalues or analysts, the front office needs to be held accountable for what actually DID happen. The front office gets paid for on the field results, not the computer simulation, and the front office needs to be smarter than internet fans.
  22. bean5302
    Sands struggled a lot in peripherals and analysis of his "stuff" in previous years while pitching as a starter/long reliever. If he performs as a short reliever, it's a fair indication that's where his value will stay. That said, the Twins are pretty strong in the bullpen already so maybe? I think the biggest problem is Sands hasn't gone more than 3 innings in the last two years so "stretching him out" will take more than the entire 2024 campaign.
  23. bean5302
    Vazquez Vortex all day! hahaha
  24. bean5302
    Martin is hitting .242/.306/.333, .669 OPS, wRC+ 90, pretty much right in line with projection systems. There is little real value in a hitting line which would be a liability for a starter. A backup/utility type role is fine, but those roles don't provide much value. Woods-Richardson has a history of getting results for a few games before batters tee off on him because he's been unable to keep his velocity consistent. I think he'll find his way into the rotation sooner than later out of necessity. He's in his 7th year at this point. It's a long, long time to struggle with the things Woods-Richardson has struggled with before suddenly putting it together.
  25. bean5302
    The entire compensation system through arbitration is out of balance, and I think just about everybody understands that. From front offices to players to fans. What makes up for the imbalance during team control is the expectation good players are young and near their prime when they exit team control which grants them the opportunity to secure a lucrative, and often long term or at least multi-year deal which will set them up for life. Not to mention most players sign 6-7 figure signing bonuses out of the gate these days. Players still get the shaft while under team control to make up for the fact many players won't work out and to provide cash flow stability to the franchise operating with existing guaranteed contracts on the books. Again, Thielbar will never get the opportunity to get balance from the current CBA. Arguing it's his fault for not being good enough when he was younger is in poor taste, IMHO. I suspect you'd sing a different tune if your employer got to lock you into a job for half your career and pay you 20% of the market rate until you were 60 years old.
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