bean5302

I think it's pretty hilarious, and it'd have a place. Obviously, the problem is for people who haven't been frequently visiting the site recently, they might not realize the horse has been severely beaten at length after its demise so I could see it being off-putting to newbies.

He sure does. I'd demote him to Ft. Myers at this point.

Must be a fun life to hope and dream for your team to suck and for all their options to underperform.

Max Kepler will be entering his age 32 season, he's already had one of his frequent IL trips, and his batting performance is still below average on the year. If the season ended yesterday and Kepler put up this stat line: .250/.306/.364 OPS .670 wRC+ 93, he'd probably get a one year deal at $4-6MM or so. His plate performance, including this year, has him below league average 3 of the past 4 seasons, and his big calling card has been great RF defense, but that's in steady, and significant decline at this point. A reasonable guess for Kepler, if he were to repeat last year's performance is 2-3 years at AAV $12-15MM. Why would the Twins be so excited to bring back a 2-3 WAR right fielder on a significant contract? It would mean Emmanuel Rodriguez doesn't look ready, Wallner never rebounds, Larnach flops, and Martin is unable to match Kepler's defense and league average bat profile over the last few years.

We're talking about 60 batted balls this year for Buxton, who will always be a very streaky hitter because he strikes out a ton, doesn't take walks and typically hits a lot of fly balls (and a lot of those are usually popups) where he depends on home runs. Just like you pointed out in the article. Because of his batted ball tendencies and the sample size we're working with, it doesn't take more than a handful of well hit balls to shift the expected outcomes for him pretty dramatically at this point. His 100 PA rolling xwOBA this year was fine for the first couple weeks, and then he started slumping. I expect he'll be fine as the same size expands. Right now, he's getting results, and hopefully he'll get some confidence and his timing will improve just like Willi Castro's has. I maintain Buxton is not, never has been, and never will be a legitimate MVP candidate now that he's in decline and age 30. He does not get on base, and there are plenty of center fielders who provide more value than he does like Trout, Judge, and Rodriguez in the AL alone. You still pushing the idea Buxton is an MVP caliber player is exactly what I'm talking about when I say how overrated Buxton has been. In a full year, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. That's great, perennial All Star caliber. It's not an MVP caliber player, not by a long shot. It's 60-70% of where he needs to be. When there was a .900-1.100 OPS center fielder like Mike Trout, .800 OPS doesn't get it done. Then there was a two way wonder, Ohtani. Donaldson and Altuve snuck in there for a couple years, but even they were much better than a full year Buxton would be. AL MVP Winner bWAR vs. Buxton vs. Buxton 150 G and percentage of WAR vs. MVP in 150 G (that he'll never ever play) 2015 = 7.1 vs. 0.4 vs. 3.3, 46% 2016 = 10.5 vs. 1.7 vs. 2.7, 26% 2017 = 7.7 vs. 4.9 vs. 5.0, 65% 2018 = 9.9 vs. (0.3) vs. (1.6), 0% 2019 = 7.9 vs. 3.0 vs. 5.2, 66% 2020 = 3.0 vs. 2.1 vs. N/A, 70% 2021 = 8.9 vs. 4.6 vs. 11.3, 127% 2022 = 10.5 vs. 3.9 vs. 6.4, 61% 2023 = 9.9 vs. 0.8 vs. 1.4, 14% 2021 was a complete aberration for Buxton in what was, yet again, a SSS for a very streaky hitter. It was never sustainable, and apart from that year, Buxton was never even close to MVP numbers even if projected to 150 games when he will never play that much.

Minnesota. North Dakota. South Dakota. Iowa. Part of Wisconsin. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-blackout-restrictions-map-2023-baseball-games/m843wsljyvrrdmf50zjhusre

Buxton got overhyped by writers and fan sites. It's not a surprise he's unable to live up to the "MVP!!!!" type of production he's now expected to show. That said, it's strange to see an article like this now when he's been raking for the past couple weeks. Last 10 games .324/.395/.529 OPS .924 wRC+ 167. 5.3% BB, 26.3% K. Buxton is coming around and I expect he'll produce at the wRC+ 120ish level on the season, which is the kind of hitter he's been from 2019-2024.

Weeeeelllllllll, you kinda got a chicken-egg sorta thing going on. Would people have cut the cord if cable companies hadn't been the absolute worst companies in the history of the universe? Monopolies, dramatic price increases, forced packages, overall absolutely MISERABLE customer experiences. Cable companies make the DMV look like paradise. MLB's blackout policy shares in the blame by not just tying themselves to cable, but basically permanently welding themselves to cable (blackouts, no streaming), MLB team owners being a decade behind the curve of understanding what fans want (improved access and game day experience), and the MLBPA seizing the opportunity to weaponize MLB's attempts to improve the game day experience once MLB actually figures something out (faster pace, more action, etc). The whole thing has been an exercise in the combination of arrogance and stupidity.

I expect Lopez to be the kind of pitcher he's been historically, and I expect a lot of the concern here is from the constantly hyped and equally ridiculous "Cy Young Favorite" trope after his playoff performances last year made fan sites lose their minds projecting him to take about 17 steps forward for 2024. Lopez Career: 3.90 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.62 xFIP Previous 3 seasons (2021-2023): 3.57 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.40 xFIP Nowhere near Cy Young consideration, but definitely a guy you want starting in the playoffs.

Comca$t isn't going to lose money or even a little profit to broadcast the Twins game. As a perennial winner of the "most hated company in America", Comca$t has an even greater level of monopoly, arrogance and disinterest in customers than Bally. MLB has done everything it possibly can to discourage expanding its fanbase, and the blackout rules are front of the line.

The "stuff" talent level of pitchers at AAA is often lower than AA. The control and polish of most pitchers at AAA is much higher than AA. AAA is a significantly harder level than AA for pitchers and hitters. The biggest jump in MiLB is from A+ to AA in my opinion, with AA to AAA being the next hardest step up. Walk rates vary between AA and AAA for more reasons than just the robo ump, including the fact you have a lot of AAAA hitters with MLB experience drawing walks at AAA, and not all batters see an increase in walk rates. Brooks Lee, for example, saw his walk rate drop from 10.3% in AA to 8.9% in AAA last year. In addition, you're narrowing the field quite a bit as not all players reach AAA, and the pitchers who do spend time at AAA often need to work on their control and polish as a final step before MLB. Just blaming robo umps (which is tantamount to saying most umpires call a smaller strike zone than actual) doesn't seem realistic to me. Especially given how robo umps have only existed in all AAA for 2023. Rodriguez has very little left to prove at AA at this point with 528 plate appearances at the level and climbing all while owning a wRC+ of 145-205.

Keep in mind with WPA, time frame counts as well as the percentage chance of winning or losing begins to oscillate with half innings especially towards the end of the game because even a single run in a 0-0 or 2-2 (for that matter) game makes a big change in win likelihood in say the 7th or 8th or 9th inning.

The question on Rodriguez was not whether or he could hit at AA, it's whether he can produce at MLB. That depends on whether the BB% turns into hits or Ks because it sure as heck isn't going to stay north of 20% in the big show. Will he turn into .200/.275/.375 with a 10% BB and 50% K rate? Or will he turn into .275/.400/.500 with a 15% BB and 30% K rate? To know that, he needs a promotion to AAA sooner than I anticipated.

Is there anybody who wouldn't take Martin over Margot at this point? I think everybody would, and picking up Margot really looks like a horrible move. His sprint speed is a miserable (relative to his historical speed) 26.9 ft/sec this year which means he's just not even an option in CF. Anything below 28.0 ft/sec is a liability in CF, and anything below mid 27s is a huge liability. Margot is officially a corner OF who can't hit at this point. Total debacle for a team which had a tight budget. Maybe Falvey will swallow his pride and DFA Margot if Larnach keeps hitting a little longer by proving he's able to recognize pitches better. Until then, I suspect Falvey will be unwilling to risk losing depth with some track record.

.226/.294/.371 OPS .665 wRC+ 94. Bad batting average. Horrible on base percentage. Bad slugging percentage. Below average overall package. That being one of the best bats the Twins had is not only inaccurate, it isn't a good thing. Martin's great as a league minimum salary backup/utility type. A guy who can plug holes when injuries crop up who prevents the team from having to go out pay millions for guys like Margot. Certainly valuable, but in that 1-2 WAR role player category. Martin isn't the kind of guy you want as a first option on the depth chart at anything other than maybe 2B where his bat might play well enough, and his arm and range might play well enough to put up a 2 WAR season.

For whom? Miranda, who clearly held his own for a full season in 2022 when his shoulder didn't need surgery and raked in a full year of AAA the year before that. There's plenty of reason to believe he can be an MLB starter and he's on his last option. Martin has hit around league average for over 1,000 plate appearances in the high minors... and did about the same at the MLB level nearly dead on matching his projected wRC+ from ZiPS, Steamer, FGDC, THE BAT, THE BAT X, and ATC DC. A little pop, above average speed, doesn't K a ton, doesn't walk a ton, good hit tool but lacks the power to turn fly balls into home runs, average arm. Austin Martin is a good backup/utility guy. Which is what everybody has been expecting out of him for two years now.

Austin Martin looks like the very definition of a utility player to me. Miranda undoubtedly stayed up because he looks like a solid starter.

Attendance has been pretty rough for the games I've been to this year. Seeing thousands of fans lined up outside Oracle Park 90min before game time in SF was a real eye-opener. Hopefully attendance picks up!

I suppose the Twins might rely on Castro in CF considering the fact his bat has finally started to show up. If he'd remained in the cellar of performance, Castro actually still had an option left.

Jackson has already been outrighted, too. I'd suspect he would decline being outrighted off the roster.

I was at the Pirates at Giants game Saturday night in San Francisco. Bad defense was the name of the game. SF fielders had multiple errors scored as "hits" and literally dropped balls on easy double plays. It was rough to watch.

Royce Lewis started up baseball activities about 10 days ago and was expected to begin his running progression last week. Probably more news by the end of this week, I'd suspect. I wouldn't expect a rehab assignment to start before next week, though. Maybe mid May at the earliest?

As much as I hate it, I think you're probably right about the Twins deciding to lean on Martin in CF. The Twins have avoided using Margot in CF which is pretty infuriating to me considering the Twins already had plenty of corner OF depth... but Derek Falvey and shiny things... Miranda is hitting well now .292/.320/.500 OPS .820 wRC+ 135 production and low K rate is awfully hard to send to AAA, but the roster construction makes it a real mess.

Here's hoping the Twins let Soto succeed and don't try to rebuild his delivery and mechanics to get 0.1mph more out of him if his stuff is working and he's healthy.

Largest 6 starting pitcher contracts in baseball. Yamamoto = $325MM Cole = $324MM Strasburg = $245MM deGrom = $185MM Nola = $172MM Rodon = $162MM Lets look at the top 4 relievers... Diaz = $102MM Chapman = $86MM Jansen = $80MM Melancon = $62MM Reliever contracts (low innings, more appearances) are generally 3-4x less than starters of the same ranking, and 1/2 the AAV. Anybody who believes starting pitchers are going to be on board with the strategy of tanking their value certainly isn't considering the impact of fewer innings/WAR. There's a reason why Sonny Gray was PO'd with Baldelli in 2022. Gray was trying to get paid for his next contract, and that was going to require him eating innings.