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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Billionaires are basically corporations for this conversation as owners operating "hands on" with MLB franchises is rare as it's not their typical expertise and MLB franchises are major companies on their own. Long term ROI (beyond 10 years) isn't the primary interest of a typical large corporation (absolutely any publicly held corporation) operating in recent history. Major corporations look at the following items: Current year earnings, 3 year earnings, 5 year earnings, 10 year earnings, 20/lifespan earnings for products/departments. Significant losses in the current year are extremely unfavorable (I cannot emphasize this enough), but they can in some circumstances be offset by the promise of enormous revenues which might help shore up underperforming branches of the company or ensure the company's viability in the next few years. It's a balance. 3 year is meh, 5 year is very important and 10 year is critical. Basically, executives will absolutely not accept losses in 3 or 5 years time. Beyond 10 years is nice and all that, but the executives won't be at the company anymore by that point so they don't care much. It's just about having some semblance of fiscal responsibility. The reason 5 and 10 years are so important is what's when a lot of executives will be planning on leaving the company, and they want that company stock to be valuable when they check out. I should note, baseball franchises operate a little differently, but the guidelines "billionaires" set for operating major corporations like the Minnesota Twins are going to be based on the owner's knowledge in running businesses. Losses for more than a year or two are just not going to happen unless the owner is chasing a dream before death (Padres recently, Tigers a decade ago, Athletics in the early 90s)
  2. bean5302
    Yes, based on the garbage metrics you're using. fWAR is junk if you're comparing several years for a pitcher. It's best used for explaining anomaly performances or predicting future performances. It's not based on what actually happened. Comparing multiple years of performances means you're comparing Lopez (who played all 3 years) to pitchers who left MLB or were rookies or were hurt. It's not apples to apples. If Lopez missed the rest of this season due to injury, would he then become a #4 or #5 pitcher if I selected 2023-2024 as the range of comparison where he was hurt? In any given year, Lopez's ACTUAL results place him in the 40-45 range for value which includes accumulated value of pitchers who've been injured or played less than Lopez has. On the mound, he gives the Twins performances typically on par with low end #2s.
  3. bean5302
    A couple weeks ago people were lamenting the fact Falvey even brought Castro back after an ice cold start to the season; oh how things have turned. Castro owns an xwOBA of .324 right now. Solid enough, a little better than league average, and right in line with his actual production last year so it seems reasonable to expect Castro to continue bringing a decent bat to the table. A good pickup after Detroit non-tendered him. He's been a butcher in CF which is a real shame because that's where he'd add the most value if his instincts were better. The Twins desperately need a 4th outfielder who can cover it in Buxton's frequent absences. As far as the future goes, if Castro puts up a 3+ WAR campaign, we can expect his arbitration costs are going to get pretty steep for a utility guy starting this offseason. He's not a superstar, but he looks to be a solid every day player.
  4. bean5302
    Yep. Cost controlled young pitching grows on trees around here.
  5. bean5302
    Like I said. 40-45 3 WAR pitchers per year. Lopez has been a 3 WAR pitcher recently.
  6. bean5302
    Sure, the Twins could make some stuff up. Of course, all teams in MLB were just put on notice regarding the Phantom IL trend. The Phantom IL debacle with the Mets just got their GM banned from baseball for a year.
  7. bean5302
    Using bWAR, Lopez has 12.2 WAR in his career, spanning roughly 6 seasons. 2 WAR pitchers are commonplace. There were about 75 of them last year. Over the past 3 seasons, Lopez has been roughly a 3 WAR pitcher. About 40-45 of those per year or so.
  8. bean5302
    It's an obvious choice of Kirilloff to me. No defensive value. Limited value at the plate. Never had a good season in his entire career. 2021 = 0.3 fWAR (Scrub) 2022 = (0.5) fWAR (AA player caliber) 2023 = 0.6 fWAR (Scrub) 2024 = 0.1 fWAR (Scrub) Not sure how much more people need to see of Kirilloff to come to the conclusion he's a bust, but I've seen plenty. In fact, if the season ended today, I'd non-tender him.
  9. bean5302
    Depends on the metric, and the sample as to where he's going to rank. He's got a career 3.95 ERA. Bailey Ober's is 3.84. Joe Ryan is 3.87. Chris Paddack is 4.27.
  10. bean5302
    Yeah!!!! Stop walking guys! Except Alcala didn't really have a problem with walking guys... He had a single bad game where Baldelli hung him out to dry for 48 pitches and he got sent down because he was going to be unavailable for probably the better part of a week after that. Seriously... a primarily SIRP who just dealt with major elbow issues before returning at the end of last year. FORTY EIGHT pitches.
  11. bean5302
    Glad to see a good start from Lopez as he could certainly use a few more. He hasn't been a consistent pitcher across his career, more a low end #2 or high end #3 than anything else. ERA / FIP, Percentage of Starts at 4.00 or less ERA 5.0+ innings 4/22 - 0.39 ERA / 1.66 FIP, 100% Starts 5/22 - 2.78 ERA / 3.73 FIP, 60% Starts 6/22 - 5.34 ERA / 4.65 FIP, 20% Starts 7/22 - 4.65 ERA / 3.92 FIP, 67% Starts 8/22 - 4.61 ERA / 4.43 FIP, 60% Starts 9/22 - 4.24 ERA / 3.55 FIP, 50% Starts 4/23 - 4.00 ERA / 2.87 FIP, 67% Starts 5/23 - 4.25 ERA / 2.51 FIP, 60% Starts 6/23 - 4.46 ERA / 2.40 FIP, 33% Starts 7/23 - 3.71 ERA / 3.82 FIP, 75% Starts 8/23 - 2.00 ERA / 3.37 FIP, 83% Starts 9/23 - 3.68 ERA / 2.71 FIP, 40% Starts 4/24 - 4.83 ERA / 3.92 FIP, 33% Starts 5/24 - 4.84 ERA / 3.70 FIP, 50% Starts He's doing just about what a person should expect he'd do based on his career.
  12. bean5302
    Nishioka canceled the last year of his guaranteed contract, saving the Twins $3MM, and he publicly apologized for his play. It also benefitted him because he was able to go back to Japan and play there in the top league, but for less money than the Twins would have been paying him. Ultimately, Nishioka probably regrets his MLB experience. It cost him his marriage, and it humiliated him. There was no "signing bonus" just the posting fee the Twins paid to negotiate with Nishioka, but that goes to the posting team in Japan, not the player. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/twins/2012/09/28/twins-tsuyoshi-nishioka-released-salary/1600231/#:~:text=Nishioka%2C a middle infielder for,-year%2C %249.25 million deal.
  13. bean5302
    Arm and shoulder fatigue can be legitimate issues. Just like lifting back to back days when you can tell your muscles just aren't responding the way they should. Whether or not the Phantom IL trip gets triggered probably depends a lot on the player's opinion. If Paddack doesn't agree there's any fatigue issue, it'd be a red flag. The Phantom IL debacle was set off by players complaining that teams were manipulating the rosters by creating fake injuries or putting people on 10 or 15 day IL trips for an injury or issue which only required a couple of days to address.
  14. bean5302
    You don't need to "play along" since it's not a game. I don't treat every single post I disagree with as trolling. :) It's not helpful.
  15. bean5302
    Feel free to take another look at Ober's AAA results. 2021 = 4 GS, 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.68 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 11.81 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.13 WHIP 2022 = 2 GS, 9.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 2.60 xFIP, 12.10 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 0.71 WHIP 2023 = 5 GS, 22.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, 9.93 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.97 WHIP Louie Varland's last 4 AAA starts: 2024 = 4 GS, 20.2 IP, 6.53 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 8.71 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.60 WHIP Not missing bats, walking too many, giving up tons of hits. Varland might yet turn some things around, but he's not pitching well at all right now.
  16. bean5302
    Topics like these are really difficult to analyze. Evaluating free agent signings is more than just dollars paid or WAR, etc. The player's fit on the team's needs, and what position they were supposed to occupy, what expectations were, and whether or not the player remained on the team could be taken into consideration. I still like the Bundy signing in a vacuum. The Twins paid him nothing, he gave the Twins a ton of solid starts, and I think Baldelli was way too quick with the hook when Bundy was pitching well. 15 of 29 starts, Bundy left the game with an ERA under 4.00. 2x he left with an ERA of 4.50. For a guy making $5MM and giving the Twins 29 starts? That's pretty dang cheap. He was not the pitcher the Twins should have been signing, though. The Twins didn't need a whole bunch of #5's. That's why it was a bad signing for the team.
  17. bean5302
    I've seen the Twins there a couple times, too. Great times. I'll totally be tailgating for the next time, haha.
  18. bean5302
    For the record, rehab assignments have 2 parts from an MLB team's perspective. 1) Is the player's injury completely healed? If they're sore on a rehab assignment they can skip a day or two or three to rest without putting a drag on the 26 man roster or forcing another 10-15 days lost on an IL trip when the player only needs 2 or 3. 2) Is the player in game day form? Live game at bats are a lot different than hitting in the cages or throwing a bullpen. Timing, feel and routine often take a few games to get back. Being the reason a AAA club loses a game is a lot less of an issue than being the reason the MLB club loses a game. To the players advantage: Performance = pay. In a 504 plate appearance season, the difference between .302/.371/.502 OPS .873 and .291/.357/.482 OPS .840 is a 4 game 0-16 streak while the player gets their timing back.
  19. bean5302
    I'd rather bring somebody up who isn't getting caved in by AAA bats.
  20. bean5302
    Oh, I don't know about that. Trolling is deliberately posting inaccurate or misleading content which is dismissive of logical and rational debate in a sole attempt to solicit a frustrated reaction from other readers. Flame Baiting, to me, is posting offensive content designed specifically to anger people rather than debate anything at all. People are allowed to have emotions connected to the Twins, and I think game threads are a particularly raw and unfiltered emotional rollercoaster, similar to what you'd see in person at a bar.
  21. bean5302
    This. There are 26 roster spots which can be filled. 13 are going to the pitchers on pretty much every MLB team right now. That leaves 13 spots left. 9 have to be for your starters, and 3 have to go to utility infielder, utility outfielder and backup catcher. That leaves 1 open spots for platoon guys, but the Twins are like... "hold my beer, I've got 20 platoon guys!!!!"
  22. bean5302
    All that said, the Rockies have great attendance because at least their owners understand the game day experience doesn't depend on: A) The name on the players jersey B) The winning record of the team. C) The storied history of a franchise D) Catering to smaller humanoids who have no money. Coors Field is an awesome venue to attend a game. While the Rockies might lose, it's a rarity there isn't something exciting going on, and Denver is a migrant powerhouse. Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, San Francisco. There are tons of people who've flooded into Denver over the years so the visiting teams have a strong presence. In addition, Denver rarely has weather delays or canceled games, and through the course of May-Sept, evening games are absolutely awesome. The stadium has been designed largely to cater to young adult fans, and the Lodo area around Coors Field boasts tons of recreation, roof top seating, etc. It's a lesson in how to operate a stadium. You can also watch the Rockies on TV these days.
  23. bean5302
    The Rockies have an owner who demands to be directly involved in the running of the franchise. That's the issue. Who stays, who can be traded, etc. Dick and Charley Monfort are kinda like a combination of Arte Moreno and Jerry Reinsdorf. I'll tell you who we're going to get/keep, but I'll spend money. Also, I want an echo chamber of nepotism, please.
  24. bean5302
    ...and you expected Baldelli to say something else? Something like, "I pitched him way too much and he's going to be unavailable for a few days, but now we've got a roster crunch and I need to manipulate the 26 man a little so we're sending Alcala down for a couple weeks because he has options."
  25. bean5302
    Can't agree with your take at all. We've seen this time and again from Twins prospects who play the positional shuffle in the pursuit of flexibility. They never get comfortable. Positioning and awareness of the situation are largely the result of repetition. Steer was not scouted as a poor defender, and if he was given regular playing time at a single position, there's no reason to expect he wouldn't improve quite a bit. 3rd base might be a stretch as his arm is pretty weak.
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