bean5302

Kumar Rocker is interesting, but you have to hand it to the Mets on that one. They got absolutely trashed for not signing Rocker. Good 'ol Scott Boras insisted everything was fine and then... On Saturday night, teams received medical records pertaining to right-hander Kumar Rocker and learned that he had shoulder surgery last September. The Mets selected the former Vanderbilt star 10th overall last July and agreed to a $6 million bonus deal that fell apart when they balked at his post-Draft physical. After New York offered him a $0 bonus -- a formality so it could get the No. 11 pick this year as compensation for failing to sign him -- he opted not to return to college. Hard to return to college when you don't know if you'll be ready to pitch by then...

He's 30% better than the average hitter at the plate in MLB. How do you define that as a liability? Your position the Twins trainers, medical staff and coaching staff have determined it would be best to risk the health of a player who just signed a very big and very long term contract doesn't make a lot of sense. It would be reckless and negligent to operate like that, in addition to it being out of the character for the franchise. A 24hr job to be on the field doesn't mean he walks in for 21hrs of treatment at the hospital. I'm sure Buxton has to follow an annoying and detailed protocol to maximize the chance he can play. It probably involves things like diet, rest, activity restrictions, medication, icing and other treatments that have to be followed in a timely manner. That's a 24hr process. If his knee flares up, he doesn't play. If he feels good and is able to prove it in a workout, he does play.

All Star Game OPS+ 133. Still has elite CF defensive stats when he's playing there. You're right. Buxton isn't helping. There's always Jake Cave!

Mostly I agree with you, but the truth is the Twins are under .500 dating back to the start of June. It's definitely time to be concerned this team doesn't have the legs to hold onto a playoff spot.

It's tough to gauge how hurt Buxton is. I wouldn't be surprised if this was one of those offseason surgery types of things where he can't really hurt it more, but it will require surgery to fix things. In any case, people seem upset that Buxton is an All Star caliber player. He's one of the best center fielders in the game. So what if he's not the guaranteed MVP if he plays 120 games level player many fans on this site want him to be? Correa's defensive numbers are what's holding his production lower than previous years. His bat is right about where it should be relative to competition. The best players on the team are not the reason the Twins aren't winning.

How will AA help him or the Twins in your opinion? Here's what I recall. Balazovic was making a mockery of AA hitters last year until Wes Johnson challenged him to use the changeup in any count against lefties and righties. After that point, Balazovic was pretty inconsistent and suddenly started walking a ton of guys. Johnson was not nearly as bullish on Balazovic as Twins fans were with the coach suggesting Balazovic might have a ceiling of middle of the rotation. Is the problem AAA hitters or is the problem Balazovic's changeup just doesn't work against high level competition? Balazovic AA <7/25/2021 - 31.3 K%, 5.5 BB%, 1.04 WHIP, 2.44 ERA, 2.73 FIP AA >7/25/2021 - 18.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, 1.71 WHIP, 4.61 ERA, 4.90 FIP AAA >5/07/2022 - 17.6 K%, 9.8 BB%, 2.32 WHIP, 10.12 ERA, 7.70 FIP Balazovic doesn't really look much different in AAA this year than he did to finish AA last year. He's giving up a ton of hits, being hit hard, walking a ton of guys and not striking many out. Maybe there's an underlying injury or maybe he's just destined to be a 2 pitch guy working out of the bullpen. I don't see how AA will help him. At least he's super close to the Twins' staff right now. Putting him in Wichita (the middle of nowhere) doesn't feel like an advantage to me.

I would really have been surprised if Wallner didn't get bumped up to AAA. I mean... there's not much else you can ask the guy to do, haha. Encarnation-Strand earned his jump up as well. It'll be interesting to see how his game plays at AA. The BB vs. K ratio is okay and he's been destroying the baseball this year in high A. Hopefully, he's able to maintain the fairly aggressive plate approach against much tougher competition.

Snell vs. Sano 2022 - $12.5MM vs. $9.25MM 2023 - $16.0MM vs. $14.0MM or $2.75MM buyout https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/06/30/the-cubs-padres-buy-a-prospect-trade-rumors-may-come-back-but-with-a-twist/ I'm assuming that's the article you're sourcing. The Padres are potentially looking to get relief Snell by adding a prospect to the mix for the acquiring team so the Padres can avoid the threshold penalty. Looks like they're about $5MM over right now so dumping all of Snell's contract would probably get them there. Picking up Sano's contract would pretty much nullify the whole advantage while losing a good starter for a bad position player.

Honestly, it is kind of interesting to think of how well position players with strong arms might be able to cover the catcher position when pitch framing goes out of the mix. From a technical standpoint, I'm guessing it wouldn't be a huge reach. From a physicality standpoint, though, the leg strength would probably be a real problem. Even a veteran catcher like Mauer took months to build his legs back up to handle the load.

Wallner had some closer duty at Southern Miss. Maybe he learned how to catch through osmosis of talking to the receivers? LOL

Romero is playing in Yokohama, Japan for the past couple years where he's had mediocre results after appearing in MLB across 2 years where he struggled. Romero also looked pretty rough at AAA in 2019 where he was too hittable and walked too many guys. He just doesn't have much of a track record of success. Sometimes players are just overhyped. Speaking of the hype machine, Brusdar Graterol is having a solid season with the Dodgers' out of their bullpen. He hasn't turned into the starter fans were hoping he could be, or the elite closer for that matter, but he is having an above average season and adding solid value. That said, chances Graterol turns lives up to the massive hype is pretty limited.

Hahaha, I'm wrong on prospects all the time. Sometimes I think they'll be great, sometimes I think they'll flop. The truth is, you never really know if their game plays until they start playing at the MLB level. My biggest mistake recently is I didn't have high hopes for Jhoan Duran. I felt like if MiLB hitters could lay off his stuff and take walks, MLB hitters would for sure have him figured out. Seems like Duran's struggles with walks last year might just have been the UCL or maybe he's just gotten better with control considering he's never been this good at controlling the free pass at any level. In any case, he's walking almost nobody this year and still striking everybody out.

Since June 12th. Exit velocity = 86.2mph Hard Hit = 24.2% Barrel Rate = 6.1% SwStr = 11.9% K% = 25.0% BB% = 6.3% If you feel like Duffey has been hit hard and has gotten lucky lately, overall, there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence of that.

Sanchez is fine. I'd be inclined to move Sanchez to the starting every day catcher and Jeffers be the backup, but regardless, the Twins' need to upgrade at catcher is minimal. Even with Jeffers performing as-is, there are other higher priorities in my opinion.

I don't see Bundy or Archer being happy about moving to the pen and neither of them have the actual results which warrant a move to the pen or the options to move them to AAA. Both Bundy (a29) and Archer (a33) are free agents after this year and they're playing for their future and Archer has huge incentives to start games, so yeah, moving either to the bullpen isn't going to go over well. That said, Archer's advanced numbers are not good. 4.89 FIP / 4.99 xFIP and he only has 2 appearances this year with an xFIP under 4.22 vs. 9 starts with an xFIP of 4.85 or higher. He's walked a ton of guys and struck out few, but he's stranded a career best 79.9% of base runners. It seems likely Archer is due to get knocked around. Bundy has pitched far better than Archer in terms of the metrics like FIP and xFIP. 7 of Bundy's 15 starts have come with xFIPs under 3.60. He's pitching largely like a #4ish rotation guy in terms of actual results. 3 good, 2 bad, 2 good, 3 bad, 4 good, 1 bad. Ober moving to the pen makes more sense than Winder, IMHO. I think Ober is a capable starter, but I don't think he's got the ceiling or median as high as Winder, and it's not like Ober pitched a ton more innings than Winder. There are 74 more games in the regular season for the Twins so the opportunity for 14-15 starts or about 70-85 innings for a starter on the Twins (average 5.0 to 5.1 innings) so Winder probably doesn't have a real innings limit issue. If anybody is on the path to a potential innings cap, it's Joe Ryan. Ryan pitched, what, like 108 innings last year between MiLB/MLB and the Olympics? Tack on 85 innings to his current total and he sits at 155 before the potential playoffs. Does anybody believe the Twins would actually stretch him to out to 180+ innings should the Twins advance? I suppose that leads to a 3rd option which is 6 man rotation.

I think it's more that Buxton is so physically gifted his strength and technique put a strain on his body. Like when Bo Jackson literally pulled his hip out of its socket fighting a tackle... something coaches/trainers told him was impossible.

Looked to me like he was tipping his pitches recently. Holding his glove close to his face for his curve and further away for fastballs, similar to the Peguero / Trout spectacle. If batters know a curve is coming, they can just lay off and sit on the fastball. I was amazed watching the curves the batters were laying off a couple weeks ago watching the game. It was absurd, like they knew what was coming when I started paying attention to Duffey's windup and delivery. In any case, Duffey was dealing with like a 30% HR/FB rate which was ridiculous. The underlying metrics were decent. I have no doubt a functional 3rd pitch could have helped get hitters to stop sitting on the pitch they want, but placement has always been a big issue for Duffey.

Yep. This is what I'm talking about. Ramos the great... More like Ramos had 2 good seasons in his career and was hurt constantly, otherwise. Ramos vs. Top Twins Catcher 2011 = 4.4 vs. 2.1 2012 = 0.5 vs. 4.6 2013 = 2.0 vs. 5.2 2014 = 1.0 vs. -0.1 2015 = -0.5 vs. -1.0 2016 = 3.6 vs. 0.0 Total = 11.0 Ramos vs. 10.8 Twins Catchers So Ramos was worth 0.2 fWAR across the 6 years of team control vs. Joe Mauer and Kurt Suzuki.

Povich wasn't atop draft rankings for Baseball America, MLB.com, Prospects1500, Bleacher Report or any major publication which provides scouting reports. I stated that only to back up the assertion the Twins would have expected to have some development work with Povich, which feeds into the idea the Twins may be having him work on his pitches, not the results. The statement was not to put him down or make any assertion about how good he could be or where he should be ranked now... I did not imply Povich was placed into A+ ball to work on his pitches, which is where I think you're addressing with your "no, that's not what they're doing" paragraph. I'm implying the Twins are undoubtedly working with Povich on developing his pitches and depending on the focus of Povich's development, the objective may reasonably be focused on improving his control or feel for specific pitches rather than trying to get the absolute best possible results in the game by only throwing in his comfort zone. Me: Cade Povich is a 2nd year pro because he's had significant professional experience in two separate years, plus an offseason program including spring training, etc. You: Cade Povich is a 1 year pro. Offseason activities don't really matter and you paint yourself as an industry insider, possible Twins staffer, pitching development expert and experienced MLB pitcher. I thought I was pretty clear why I'm not all-in on Povich. He's given up quite a few hits so his WHIP isn't great and he hasn't been able to pitch out of jams despite the high strikeout rate and that has led to an uninspiring ERA/RA9. I'd put more faith in FIP if the scoring seemed more reliable in the minors. Results matter to me because there have been a dozen Twins pitching prospects who never panned out despite being labeled as studs who were just unlucky with results. You're free to say I'm wrong. You're free to have an opinion, and if you are an insider, your opinion is definitely more informed than mine, but if you do have that insider professional development knowledge, lend yourself some credibility and stop adding/changing the context of my comments. You should have enough confidence in your own position to stop misrepresenting mine.

I just don't see where you're really going with this. Povich is not young or inexperienced vs. his competition and he's had last year real world professional experience on the mound (though limited), and an entire offseason to work on a throwing program, mechanics, etc. He's also had this season to see the results from the offseason throwing program. This is his 2nd year of professional experience. If you want to take the opinion I should say 1 year of experience or I should have said 1.5 years experience because of the two pro seasons and one offseason or whatever, that's your opinion. It could be the Twins aren't actually trying to evaluate Povich's best performance numbers right now and are instead having him focus on getting command and control over one or more of his pitches. I'd say that's pretty likely considering Povich's best rank was #276 by Baseball America and unranked by everybody else when the Twins took him at #98. I agree results are basically all normal fans like myself can get excited about because I'm not part of the Twins' development team. All I can really judge is the numbers, but I also understand the numbers are not a reflection of the work the pitcher is doing on the bump in games, but the work the pitcher put in away from the game. The game itself is proof of the work and the theory. When it comes to the actual results, they are not that impressive. A 4.00 ERA and 5.00 RA9 are adequate, not exciting. The 1.21 WHIP is pretty good, but certainly not great. That's why I say we'll just have to wait and see.

I sorted Fangraphs' team data from a couple days ago. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=11,a

You believe the only value teams offer players is experience while they're on the mound facing competition? Got it. Here's a thought to consider. Coaches, trainers, medical staff, analytics departments and other staff work on development even while a pitcher isn't actively on the mound including offseason workouts and training programs. What happens on the mound itself is a reflection of all the work (days/weeks/months) which happens off the mound. You think Josh Winder just started throwing 7mph faster than when he was drafted because the pitching coach ran out there between innings and said, "hey, throw harder?" I mean, you're free to ignore all the workouts, throwing programs and buildup...

Matt Capps was a huge upgrade over Jon Rauch and the Twins acquired Matt Capps for the playoffs, not necessarily for the following year. Wilson Ramos was the Twins' 3rd or 4th ranked prospect and he was on some of the top 100 lists to begin the year, but by 2011, Ramos was about the #5 (or lower) prospect for the Nationals. Ramos has managed a 15 WAR career over 11 years since and is a free agent recovering from his 3rd ACL repair. People on this site act like Ramos was Buster Posey or something...

An unmitigated disaster? Twins relief pitchers rank: 16th in ERA 21st in FIP 9th in xFIP 9th in Holds 24th in Saves 29th in Blown Saves To have blown saves or record saves, you have to be winning the game, which is why an excellent bullpen like Baltimore ranks far lower in holds and a dumpster fire bullpen like Cincinnati has ranks higher in blown saves than you'd expect. The Twins relievers have very good xFIPs with a mediocre ERA and poor FIP suggests the bullpen has largely been unlucky with home runs in particular (i.e. Tyler Duffey). I feel the Twins' bullpen is a bit of a victim of Buxtonitis around here. Any memorable blown leads is bad, just like anything less than a 5.000 OPS for Buxton is him underperforming.

Of course, that assumes the Twins don't just DFA Sano. I don't wish him bad luck or any negativity, but Sano has a lot to prove and doesn't have any time to do it. Hitting bombs off Rookie Ball pitchers at least suggests he has his timing back. It's probably just a matter of conditioning at this point and the 20 day rehab assignment is up in 14 days... how much conditioning can you improve in two weeks? I guess a bit, but the best place to improve conditioning is Ft. Myers... where the lowest level of play happens to be. There isn't sufficient time to demonstrate any ability at St. Paul and condition in Ft. Myers.