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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Glad the Twins won! Funny the article mentioned all the negativity towards Correa recently. I was thinking I might come in here and point out how the comments were undoubtedly missing the trash talking of Correa haha. Anyway, seems like he's right on track for a 4+ fWAR season and he's already at 4.0 bWAR.
  2. bean5302
    I think Ryan is exactly what I expected him to be. A solid #4-5 guy with a ceiling (unlikely to reach it) as a #3. Ryan's offspeed and breaking pitches are pretty limited and that was known when the Twins acquired him. He's a solid back end starter right now.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah, all the acronyms and abbreviations can seem pretty ridiculous. Different sites use different factors. It's honestly a big pain to learn them. wOBA = weighted on base average. It's basically a stat designed to combine everything a player does offensively into on base percentage equivalent. .300 stinks, .325 is okay, .350 is good, .375 is great .400 is elite. Something like that. xwOBA = the expected wOBA a player should have based on batted balls. Essentially, how hard and far balls were hit. It tries to take out the "balls with eyes" factor. wRC+ = weighted runs created plus, which is basically a really complicated, and slightly more accurate version of the much older and still usually very good OPS (on base + slugging percentage), but wRC+ is adjusted for park factors. It's just a rating which compares total expected offensive output relative to other batters where 100 is league average.
  4. bean5302
    Being built for October means starting pitching to me. While I think Gray has proven he's a good pitcher this year, there has to be a threat the best starter on the team could corner an opponent against a wall by tossing 7 or 8 great innings, leaving only the elite bullpen to close out the win. Even if Gray had an immaculate game with 18 strikeout on 48 pitches going, Baldelli would pull him at the end of 6.0 innings in favor of Emilio Pagan instead of letting Gray face the order a 3rd time.
  5. bean5302
    Won't it be great if Varland pitches really well down the stretch and the Twins make the playoffs just to watch Varland get the axe because Falvey didn't want to burn an option?
  6. bean5302
    I understand what you're saying there and I agree with you 100%. This failure is on the front office, 100% if Baldelli is just essentially following absolute orders he disagrees with. It's on Baldelli to push back or quit if he disagrees with the philosophy. It's his career and this will be tied to him now. He either lacks confidence to stand up for what he believes or he believes in what appears to be a foolish philosophy. If there aren't absolute orders and if the plan isn't working, it's time to ratchet up the number of innings the starters pitch like every other team in baseball with better or worse rotations than the Twins. There is no good reason for 3 of our 4 main starters to rank in the bottom 6% of all starters in baseball in terms of pitches thrown per start when the bullpen can't handle the strain. Adapt or die.
  7. bean5302
    The Twins rank 20th in home attendance average this year, ahead of several teams more likely to make the playoffs and 2nd in the AL Central behind the White Sox's 24.6k. Minnesota 22.6k Baltimore 17.7k Cleveland 17.2k Tampa Bay 14.0k The Twins were coming off a last place finish and a long lockout with almost no time to ramp up season ticket sales in a city which has been rocked by violence, crime and safety issues over the past 2 years. The deck was stacked against filling season ticket holder seats and it shows. Early year attendance was horrid. April = 17.5k May = 19.4k Jun = 24.9k Jul = 28.0k ---------------- Twins lose division lead. Aug = 24.2k (Competing with Vikings, State Fair, Renaissance Festival) All in all, the Twins seem to be holding their own in attendance. Winning is one part of the equation. The game day experience is what really matters. The Pohlads put forth a major commitment to winning this year with a payroll blowing their historical max out of the water at $140MM. Right in line with where the team should be on an annual basis.
  8. bean5302
    Since I'm a season ticket holder, I'm going to show up. I'm also going to spend money on concessions, enjoy the ambiance and have fun with friends (if I can get them to go, haha). I go to the game to have fun, and it's fun going to the game regardless of whether or not the Twins win.
  9. bean5302
    A good manager should adapt and push back on the front office if the strategy is failing or quit at the end of the season. At this point, Baldelli not pushing back on the strategy and managing in a different manner shows he either believes in the failing philosophy or he lacks the confidence to push back. My guess is he truly believes in the philosophy which I don't.
  10. bean5302
    Sanchez in August and September .222/.309/.403 wRC+ 107. Season wOBA .333 (average), xwOBA .355 (good) Historical his wOBA and xwOBA have been right in line with each other. Sanchez is above average with pitch framing this year +1 runs, but of course, Jeffers is better at that with +3 runs in fewer innings. Sanchez is well above average with controlling the run game at 33% caught stealing vs. 25% league average. It comes from Sanchez having a strong arm and fast pop time. Jeffers is well below average with controlling the run game at 17% caught stealing vs. 25% league average. His pop time is league average and his arm is weak. His weakness in the run game is well known and teams actively take advantage of his limitations. Sanchez goes approximately 23 innings between having a passed ball or wild pitch. Jeffers is better at 25 innings. Both are slightly better than league average, ranking 21st and 19th, respectively, of 42 catchers with 400+ innings this year. To put it bluntly, Sanchez is a solid defensive catcher this year with no obvious flaws in his catching game. He's universally better than average. His bat comes with a lot of power, but a lot of swing and miss, too. He's about a league average hitter. That said, he's a free agent after this year. I doubt Leon is better than Caleb Hamilton. Jeffers is the only legitimate MLB caliber catcher we have on the roster beyond this year, and I'm not sure he's a legitimate starter. So beyond this year, the Twins are in very rough shape. This year, the Twins need Sanchez to stay healthy and they'll be "okay."
  11. bean5302
    The only chance Varland has to be a success story is if Falvey, Levine and Baldelli aren't with the organization anymore. No starting pitcher is ever going to be a "success story" with this front office running the show and destroying all the value they can along the way.
  12. bean5302
    This article couldn't be further off. Other teams rely on pitches to determine starts, not TTO. The TTO concept being implemented in such a hard set fashion is seemingly unique to the Twins. The Twins set an all time MLB record for the longest time into the season for a pitcher to hit 100 innings. - That is not a trend or similar to other teams. It's an all time record (which makes it exceptional). Archer, Gray and Bundy all rank at or near the absolute bottom of MLB starters in terms of their average appearance length. 75% of all starters in MLB average at least 5.1 innings. Twins = 20% (Ryan = 5.1) 50% of all starters in MLB average at least 5.2 innings. Twins = 0% 25% of all starters in MLB average at least 6.0 innings. Twins = 0% Pitches per game? Same story. 75% of all starters in MLB average at least 85 pitches per start. Twins = 20% (Joe Ryan = 87) 50% of all starters in MLB average at least 90 pitches per start. Twins = 0% 25% of all starters in MLB average at least 94 pitches per start. Twins = 0% Percentile rank by pitches per start. Joe Ryan 35% (78/120) Sonny Gray 6% (113/120) Dylan Bundy 4% (115/120) Chris Archer 0% (120/120) The Twins are not part of a baseball trend. The Twins are unique. Other teams allow starters to keep pitching when they're effective. The Twins do not. The Twins pull pitchers who are pitching well because of the false pretense of a major drop off in performance related to TTO and the organization seems to be refusing to alter it's seemingly failed strategy.
  13. bean5302
    Yes. Varland was pulled too early, putting the Twins into a situation the bullpen didn't need to be in and the Twins lost. I don't have any faith in Falvey, Levine and Baldelli at this point.
  14. bean5302
    There have been articles released about it over the years and it seems like mangameslost.com may have the data, but it's a paid site.
  15. bean5302
    Very exciting for Varland to get called up! I hope he views the Yankees as just another team and not so pensively as fans on this site. If he goes out and shows command of his pitches, he'll have a good shot at giving the Twins a solid start. Sometimes I do wonder if the Twins psyche themselves out when facing New York. The Yankees average 5.0 runs per game at home and 4.2 on the road. Less than a run per game per difference, but it feels like the expectation is they'll hang 10 on the Twins.
  16. bean5302
    The Twins, White Sox and Guardians are running a different kind of 3 legged race, but still just as awkward looking as the normal kind. Except, sometimes, fans just want to put the burlap sack over their heads haha. At least it feels like the rest of the central is intent on keeping the the division wide open so fans can just enjoy the excitement of the potential for the playoffs
  17. bean5302
    I don't think all the Twins' players used have been the result of injury. The Twins have manufactured some the need to be creative with the MiLB to MLB shuttle due to the way the TTO pitching strategy has been implemented. The Twins are 2nd in MLB in terms of IL players behind the Reds at 31 total. The Twins are 3rd in MLB in terms of IL days spent, behind the Reds and Rays, just a tick ahead of the Cubs. The Twins are 14th in MLB in terms of IL dollars spent. This is often the place where wins lost are counted. This is where the star players are often counted. Obviously, this doesn't normalize the dollar figure with the percentage of the team salary which might also be helpful. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/2021/cumulative-team/ It might be interesting to evaluate the front office's record in relation to their peer teams in terms of all three, plus percentage of salary.
  18. bean5302
    I think the AFL is fine. While the tone in here suggests the AFL is only for elite prospects, I disagree with that. I see mostly either elite prospects who have lost a large portion of the season to injury or prospects who aren't elite, but who may have had a season which wasn't long enough for the front office's to accept the results as proven. A lot of the time the AFL seems to get prospects who just need more playing time. Conversely, the players who've already had longer seasons than what they're used to (college starters typically don't exceed 80-100 innings) run the risk of wearing out and breaking down with serious injuries if they're overworked so filling an expanded group of rosters might not be ideal.
  19. bean5302
    I just don't see Winder as a legitimate starter anymore, and I've been as high on him as anybody. I don't think his shoulder can handle the workload. As far as this year, he's missed so much time he'll need to be stretched back out and there just really isn't enough time to do it and still make more than a start or two for the Twins IMHO.
  20. bean5302
    Lopez since joining the Twins: 3.09 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 4.25 xFIP 18.8% K (poor), 8.3% BB (acceptable), 1.37 WHIP (poor), .364 BABIP (very unlucky). He's pitched in 12 games and allowed runs in 3 of them, blowing 2 saves. 75% of the time, Lopez puts up a 0 so far. It's not great, for sure, and fans were expecting great, but it's a very small sample size. Lopez has 50% of his season with the Twins left, still. Duran has pitched in 50 games and allowed runs in 7 of them. 86% of the time, Duran puts up a 0 so far, and that's fairly on track for an elite closer. No runs allowed about 85% of the time.
  21. bean5302
    He became the first pitcher in MLB history to throw any non-fastball pitch at 100+ mph.
  22. bean5302
    Gordon started off with much less impressive exit velocities as well. He's learned to adapt his swing and approach to make better contact in general, and he's put on weight. A breakdown per 100 plate appearances and how his exit velocity almost immediately jumped up. Gordon has been hitting the ball hard for a very long time. His hard hit rates increased relatively quickly, too. 88.7 93.7 91.5 91.1 90.6 92.5 While Gordon is referred to as "slender" so is Byron Buxton. From my understanding, Gordon is 6'1" and about 180lbs right now. 180lbs is plenty for a lot of strength.
  23. bean5302
    Canterino never pitched more than 99.1 innings for Rice, and he never averaged more than 6.2 innings per start, and less than 6.0 in his rookie year. The innings he pitched and batters he faced was never leading or close to leading the league. It's also been 3 years now.
  24. bean5302
    Gordon's arm should be way stronger than Kepler's. I seriously don't get where this arm complaint on Gordon comes from? He was drafted as a shortstop and at the time he was throwing 90mph off the mound as a pitching prospect and mid 90s across the diamond in the infield. He was graded with a 50+ arm. Kepler has an okay arm for right field, and he's been hesitant to go all out with it since having a tear in his UCL and multiple shoulder issues. He's been below average on arm related statistics for RF his entire career.
  25. bean5302
    I think I'd trade Kepler and make Gordon the starting RF next year. Celestino can handle the 4th outfielder duty. Gordon's been far above average for a hitter since early in the season. His exit velocities are elite and he's found a way to get enough angle on the ball that extra bases have been rolling in.
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