bean5302

Arraez's defensive limitation isn't his height; it's a weak arm and being a slow runner with poor acceleration. He typically has pretty good instincts and positioning so his actual fielding results (UZR/RF/etc) are better than the athletic numbers (OAA). I expect Arraez's ISO and overall WAR rate will improve before the end of the year. Probably back to about a 2.0-2.5 WAR player, but he's not going to be a ton better than that playing 1B/DH. If Arraez wants to be more like Carew or Gwynn, he's going to need to work on his athleticism.

I think the question is whether or not San Francisco and New York regret not signing Correa to their initially agreed upon terms. I'd say no. They're both probably okay with the contract they offered not working out. The Giants did have some sour grapes after Correa and Boras basically blocked them out from further negotiation once San Francisco balked at the 13 year $350MM guarantee offer upon reviewing the medicals. The Mets took their first shot with a 12 year $315MM bid, but they tried to drop that to 6yrs and $165MM or something like that. A major low-balling for medicals they already knew about. It was pretty dirty. The Twins are on the hook for a 6 year, $200MM guarantee. Massive difference between the initial offers from the Giants and Mets, but I'm quite sure the Mets would be happy having the 6yrs $165MM deal Correa shunned. There's no way to tell what's going to happen in the future with Correa, but the contract looks good right now.

I'll continue to note this every time I see it because people seem to forget or ignore the Mets GM was just suspended for a year for using the Phantom IL. MLB put front offices on notice about the Phantom IL earlier this year with that suspension, and Falvey is running a lame duck front office right now (contracts end this year, and they haven't been renewed). Now if Paddack really is suffering from shoulder fatigue or dead arm, the IL trip is warranted. In Maeda's case last year, his velo looked like this 91.0 -> 89.3 -> 89.0 -> 88.5. Paddack's case over his last few starts: 91.5 -> 95.0 -> 95.2 -> 93.7 When I looked at Paddack's results and charted them for the season, he started off with higher velocity, which gradually trended down, but was up and down from start to start, with his control trending gradually up in a similar way. Basically, Paddack was trying to find more control, which is usually the last thing to return for pitchers coming back from TJ. The recent starts are not indicative of dead arm, they're more indicative of a starter who isn't very good right now.

What about his OPS of 1.000 for his first 10 games in May? Terrible! Awful! Couldn't hit anything! If you cherry pick hard enough, you can bend numbers to you will. For example. You know that hack Carlos Correa? I've been hearing that he's been hot recently, but between 5/27 and 6/8, his slash was only .186/.196/.346 OPS .545 wRC+ 46. Heated up has he? Good hitter is he? Poppycock!!!!

You're breaking SSS into SDSSS, looking for the worst patches you can find, and then concluding he's been hot and cold. No player has a steady production line. Wallner's first 10 games in May (May 1-11) he had an OPS of 1.000. Then over his next 13 games you arbitrarily chose to end just before Wallner got hot, his OPS was only .356, but that's basically the definition of cherry picking.

The Twins have picked up 2 games on Cleveland and 3 games on Kansas City over their past 10 games, and we're 3 games up on the Boston Red Sox who just took 2 of 3 from the Yankees. Toronto, and Washington are 0.5 games back from .500 as well. We're on pace for a 90 win season atm. Will the lamenting end about how the Twins should be sellers, and about how the Twins can't beat good teams now having split or won series' against Seattle (division leader), Milwaukee (division leader), Kansas City (wildcard), Boston (.514), and 2 other teams who are under .500 only because of the Twins?

Alonso shot down the Mets' extension offer of 7yrs / $158MM so I'd say no way he takes 4yrs / $100MM. I do not understand the obsession with Alonso at all. Going out and signing free agents means the team has failed to develop players who could fill the free agent's shoes internally, and the Twins have a whole pile of bat first, defensively limited options. What a 2.5-3.5 WAR player (currently) like Alonso brings to the table beyond guys we already have who are making league minimum is limited, especially for the huge cost and risk of the long term contract he'd saddle onto Minnesota.

I'd be awfully surprised if Thielbar would retire the year he first reaches free agency. I'm sure he'll be looking to fix his issues and get an opportunity somewhere as a free agent.

Interesting topic. Quite a few names I recognize, and plenty of names I don't, haha.

Varland cannot stay up. He was optioned less than 10 days ago. The double header is the only reason he was allowed to be a temporary fill in.

Glad he got the results, but they came with lots of high mph exit velocities again. He pitched better today than his actual start last Tuesday despite the ERA not showing it. Varland did avoid the walks he'd been struggling with.

It's not sudden. He's been raking for months now. He owns an OPS close to 1.000 Since May 1.

LOL, Wallner with 2 more home runs. Calcs out to .351/.425/.857 OPS 1.282 with a .506 ISO in his past 20 games 87 PA. Or for those people wanting the larger sample size, over his last 40 games and 176 PA, that's .278/.364/.623 OPS .986. With Margot, Santana and Farmer remembering how to hit over the past couple weeks, it keeps the pressure on.

Martin's home run robbing catch would have been a lot more impressive if he didn't also bounce a ball off his glove costing the team a run and allowing the Athletics to tie it up in the 2nd. Exciting to have Royce Lewis out there playing like an MVP.

So he's not in good enough shape to be a professional baseball player. Got it. Cut him.

Varland pitched well against the Rockies, but the Rockies were hitting him very hard. Some of the big problems Varland was having while getting rocked were still present vs. Colorado. Festa isn't going to take a start away from anybody so if he get an opportunity, it'll probably be due to injury, but he's getting results far superior to what Varland is doing. Festa's just not on the 40 man.

I haven't seen any reports about Kirilloff being injured or needing rest. He hasn't played, but that could be for a number of reasons.

His stuff is so filthy AA hitters were able to lay off it and saddle him with a 5.8 BB/9 walk rate in Canterino's only experience above the low minors in his entire career, but that was 2 years ago, too. Canterino's been great at striking guys out, but his "stuff" needs to hit the strike zone as he progresses.

Love Lewis, but concentrating on injury issues for other candidates while ignoring Lewis' lengthy injury history is makes this article a dud for me. This was supposed to be an objective analysis. Let me help you with that... Assuming no future unknown injuries, Lewis certainly looks to have the highest ceiling of the players. Given Lewis' impressively lengthy injury history, that's probably not realistic. That said, some of the other players are already a hair width away from retirement due to injuries at this point, and all of them have experienced some sort of significant setback in the department. I rated their future WAR production alone, without considering costs. If Lewis does turn into a 5-6 WAR, full season player, he's going to be dramatically more expensive than the other players projected so do keep that in mind. MacKenzie Gore is about to hit Arb Eligible next year as well, so a big year to start it off could push him up the payroll quick. fWAR bWAR Ann. WAR FA WAR FA Hunter Greene 5.1 5.3 3-4 16-19 2028 Royce Lewis 3.6 3.5 5-6 26-30 2029 Brendan McKay 0.8 -0.2 0 1-1 2029 MacKenzie Gore 3.9 3.6 3.5-5 16-22 2028 Kyle Wright 2 2.6 0 3-3 2027 Hunter Greene's gone through quite a few injuries, like Lewis, but Green's on pace to have his 3rd straight season with 20+ starts, roughly averaging 110-120 games on the roster per season. That's more than Lewis' entire career. Greene's struggled with walks, and his ceiling seems quite a bit lower than Lewis' as his secondary offerings aren't elite. Kind of a Joe Ryan type of pitcher, but a pitcher who relies on fastball velocity rather than fastball deception. Future projection, mid rotation starter. 3 WAR / season. MacKenzie Gore is having a Cy Young caliber season this year. 3.24 ERA, 2.92 FIP, but injuries had slowed down his progress until now. It's looking like he's put some things together in Washington and at age 25, he's showing the kind of performance you could expect from an Ace, but I have my doubts based on his stuff seemingly getting results above the pitches' pay grade. The slider is thrown extremely hard, and I think he's about the hardest throwing lefty fastball pitcher so the velo is helping him, but the movement is a bit sketchy. He's getting results though. He's on pace for his second basically full season in a row this year with the hopes the injuries are largely behind him. Future projection takes into consideration the movement reducing his ceiling a bit to mid/upper rotation starter at 3.5 WAR / season. Kyle Wright has ended up with the Royals after putting together only one productive and healthy season in 2022. Atlanta rushed Wright up the ranks quickly after the draft with the pitcher even reaching MLB the year after being drafted. Wright floundered in 2019-2020, struggling greatly with a combination of walks and barrels prompting Atlanta to keep him in AAA most of 2021. His aforementioned breakout season came in 2022, though his sparkly 3.19 ERA was outperforming his 3.58 FIP, though the xFIP was only 3.30. From there, Wright developed shoulder issues, ultimately leading to capsule surgery and the Braves gave up on their rising star from 2022 trading him to the Royals for a reliever. Wright's career is probably over as coming back from shoulder capsule surgery is going to be tough. Future projection limited value. Brendan McKay's lengthy injury struggles are well known. UCL surgery (good outcomes), TOS surgery (poor outcomes), the two-way wonder abandoned the efforts to hit after 2019, making just 25 plate appearances between injuries in 2021 for his last hurrah. One of the biggest reasons to choose McKay was the expectation there was less risk with a prospect who could make it as a hitter or pitcher if they couldn't do both. The surgeries have robbed McKay of a lot of velocity, and I believe he was sitting at about 90mph on his fastball to open the season, then quickly went down with multiple arm issues. It'd be a stretch to believe he's got a notable career in MLB ahead of him IMHO. Future projection, limited value. All in all, it certainly looks like the Twins made a good, if not the best pick among the top candidates, but it will likely depend on Lewis remaining healthy to capitalize on his talents. MacKenzie Gore looks to be a guy who could potentially give Lewis a run for his money as well.

Over 33 plate appearances? Yeah. Every year for 5+ straight years. 2024 4/16-5/18 35 PA .071 AVG, wRC+ 34 2023 4/29-5/10 35 PA .036 AVG, wRC+ -3 2022 6/18-7/2 35 PA, .034 AVG, wRC+ -14 2021 8/28-9/6 38 PA, .065 AVG, wRC+ 26 2020 8/22-9/1 33 PA, .038 AVG, wRC+ -11

I cannot fathom in all my attempts to understand how these articles talk about the Twins needing a lefty power bat, but don't think a right handed power bat has a spot on the roster. Especially considering a power RHB was one of the 3 "must gets" for the Twins this past offseason which Falvey failed at acquiring, settling for Carlos Santana. Rooker would immediately slot into the DH position for the Twins. That said, I don't think Rooker is likely to be coming back to the Twins because the ask for him is going to be pretty high. My guess is he'd eat up like a Marco Raya and Gabriel Gonzalez pretty quick, and Falvey would be loathe to present the optics on such a trade.

Hurt still. Not again. He's on the 60 day IL right now. Rotator cuff strain/tear from mid-March. He started short toss in late April, moved to long toss 90 feet a month ago without initial pain, and head trainer, Nick Paparesta, was hoping to start mound work and ramp up sometime this month. Hold your breath. If there's a setback, I'd bet money his career is over. https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotatwins/comments/1cs4qpx/park_a_note_out_of_the_nick_paparesta_checkin/?rdt=61383

For a guy who raked the way he did in MLB last year, who still has another option after this year and isn't close to arb eligible, he's going to get some chances.

He did not do better than 1.084 OPS, and 100 PA isn't that small of a sample size in AAA for a guy who proved himself in MLB already. The Twins should have just been waiting for things to click. Looking at the numbers behind the scenes to find red flags like a couple huge games and a bunch of cold ones or BABIP issues or lack of production from a significant area of a player's game: Doing it day in, day out? Yes 18/20 games reached base, hits in 16/20 games, 4 multi-hit games. Unsustainable BABIP? No. BABIP .292 over the past 20 games. Plate Discipline? Yes. He's taking walks and not striking out. Hitting for power? Yes. .400 ISO over the past 20 games, 8 HRs, only 1 game with multiple HRs Questions about Wallner's plate approach and being an MLB caliber player can only really be answered at the MLB level.

I like the City Connect uniforms in a vacuum. They'd look great on a college team, but that's honestly what Nike seems to specialize in. Maybe these things will target a younger demographic MLB needs to reach? Love seeing the walk off. These are games the Twins need to be able to win.