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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    When I look deep into Balazovic's numbers, he wasn't generating a ton of swinging strikes. 40 strikes total, with well under half coming from swinging and looking combined which suggests a lot of balls being fouled off. In my experience, at bats with tons of foul balls often end in strikeouts or home runs. Considering just how awful Balazovic has been this year, I'm guarded in any optimism, but it's hard to believe some of Balazovic's struggles haven't been mental. Here's hoping he can build on the performance and confidence inspires better results. Woods-Richardson moving on up to AAA is exciting. I'm really interested to see how his stuff plays against more experienced batters who generally take more professional at bats than lower in the minors. Here's hoping Woods-Richardson proves his mettle quickly in St. Paul. It's been quite the whirlwind for him between all the trades, downtime and the Olympics. I bet he can practically taste his first MLB start.
  2. bean5302

    Where's Wallner?

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Fangraphs 2022 - https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&q=julien Click on the little black note/letter/clipboard icon to the right of his name for the report. Click on his name for his page and you can see his rated tools above his stats. MLB 2022 - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/edouard-julien-666397 Prospects Live 2021 - https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2021/4/3/minnesota-twins-2021-prospect-rankings Takes a second to load, but scroll all the way down to Julien and click on the blue clipboard icon to the left of his name to expand his scouting report. There are 3 I found quick. He's graded as a 40 run/field type of guy. Scouts tend to repeat the same numbers and they can certainly be off, but right now, it's universal on him. I think Fangraphs had an article where they talked about him recently as well where they note even Julien knows his value is in the bat.
  3. bean5302
    It's a tough one between Miranda and Duran, but I'd take Miranda as of this point. Joe Ryan is well behind in my opinion.
  4. bean5302
    This was the reason Nelson Cruz got Joe Ryan in the first place. Tampa Bay isn't exactly inept at developing pitching and they knew Ryan's MLB ceiling was limited even with his great fastball if his secondary offerings didn't improve. The Twins won the Cruz trade no matter how you look at it, but if Ryan cannot improve his secondaries, he'll be stuck as a #4-5 guy for his career. Still a steal for a few months of Cruz and what will at least amount to a nice MLB career like a Nick Blackburn.
  5. bean5302
    fWAR shows 1.0 and 0.6 while bWAR shows 0.0 and 0.2, respectively. That said, the Twins haven't done Bundy or Archer many favors by allowing them to accumulate WAR. The only reason starters provide so much more value than relievers is innings. The fact starters are expected to go TTO and Baldelli almost always pulls them before then means the Twins have chained Bundy and Archer's WAR production significantly. No innings = no WAR. When it comes to calculating true value, I don't think the $8MM per WAR calculation is any good at all. It doesn't reflect true contributions to the team and it doesn't reflect what the team was hoping to buy. Teams have been trying to buy WAR closer to $6MM historically and a starting pitcher producing 2.0 WAR is just treading water in terms of actual team contributions. A typical team needs about 90 wins to make the playoffs. That's about 45 WAR. Starting Position Players - 9 at 2.0 WAR Starting Rotation Players - 5 at 2.0 WAR Bullpen Players - 8 at 0.5 WAR Utility Players - 4 at 0.8 WAR Injury Replacements - 10.0 WAR Less than that, and the team is short on WAR to make the playoffs and another player has to carry the load. A starting pitcher who can't get to about 2 WAR on the season is a net negative on a team's playoff chances, which is why signing those 1.0 WAR types of players is a waste of money. I think Bundy's ERA and WAR would both be quite a bit better if he hadn't gotten the early hook all the time. There have been many, many games this year he should have trotted back out for another inning or 3.
  6. bean5302
    The MLB leader has 24 starts this year. Bundy has 20, on pace for 30 starts Archer has 20. on pace for 30 starts Ryan has 19. on pace for 27 starts. Gray has 17. on pace for 24 starts. I'm not sure if your world is realistic based on what you're writing. Do you expect relievers to never allow a home run? Jax has 44 appearances. In 39 of those, he allowed 0-1 runs... Thielbar has 46 appearances. In 43 of those, he's allowed 0-1 runs... and only 1 of the games where he's allowed more than 1 run has occurred in his last 44 appearances. Why not throw Jhoan Duran under the bus like Thielbar and Jax? Duran has 3 games where he's allowed more than 1 run too. We ditched Joe Smith, who had only allowed multiple earned runs twice this year, lol. 20% of the runs Smith allowed was from the fielders knocking balls down with concrete gloves. Perhaps you think that's sustainable and good relief pitchers are guaranteed to go out there and go 3 up and 3 down all the time? In any case, Baldelli has been afforded several reliable relievers. He elected to use Duffey and Pagan all the time instead of giving Bundy or Archer another inning. Duffey still has the 3rd most innings of our relievers...
  7. bean5302
    Pagan is getting eaten alive. While you can look at his xFIP and say "oh, he's unlucky" the Statcast metrics do not look good. EV = 91.4mph, bottom 2% Hard hit = 49.1%, also bottom 2% Barrel Rate = 13%, also very bad. Walk rate is high The worst part about it? Looks just like last year in a lot of ways.
  8. bean5302
    Good on him, though it's a minor league deal. So long as Duffey performs in their AAA club for a few games, he'll get called up quick.
  9. bean5302
    The only Contreras the Twins are going to sign is playing in AAA for the Saints right now.
  10. bean5302
    Nope. Judge is will stay in NY. Turner will stay in LA. Arenado is on pace to win the NL MVP this year and he's not in the Twins' budget or their needs. Correa will be out of the Twins' budget.
  11. bean5302

    Where's Wallner?

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Every single scouting report from every single source on Julien says the same thing. Lacks speed. Mediocre to weak arm, mediocre to weak defense. Bat first player. From AA this year 13 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing. Julien has good instincts, but he lacks the physical ability to be good at stealing bases. Way, way easier to steal bases in the low minors. Julien's range factor is 20% lower than his peers and his fielding percentage is well below average. Which also aligns with all the scouting reports. Weak arm, no speed, bat first. Every. Single. One. Here's Julien at 2B compared to his peers with the most innings on each team playing 2B in the Texas League. Julien's numbers are truly terrible. Now, some of Juliens numbers are no doubt from being handicapped with highly defensively challenged Austin Martin at SS, but the sheer drop off between peers and Julien is pretty stunning. Player RF/9 Fielding Pct vs. Avg Leyba 5.03 0.989 21% Polcovich 4.45 0.978 6.70% Whitcomb 4.23 0.988 1.40% Stankiewicz 4.19 0.959 0.50% Dunn 4.16 0.979 -0.20% Massey 4.14 1.000 -0.70% Foscue 4.08 0.973 -2.10% Mann 3.89 0.973 -6.70% Julien 3.32 0.965 -20.80% Average 4.17 0.978
  12. bean5302
    I agree the homestand is critical to the Twins' chances. While the Twins have a huge number of games coming up against the Guardians in September, it's not reasonable to expect a huge shift in the standings. The start of September sees the Twins playing 15 of 18 of their games against teams with winning records, the first 7 all on the road against the Yankees and White Sox. That's not a stretch where you'd expect a team that's played well under .500 since late May to make a run. If the Twins don't make up some ground this month, their odds are going to look pretty rough. As of right now, the Twins would have to pass 2 teams (Orioles and Rays) to make the 3rd Wildcard with the Blue Jays and Mariners also ahead. Those aren't good odds. The White Sox have the weakest strength of schedule of the AL Central competitors for the remainder of the year. Fangraphs, as it stands today: Guardians 47.3%, White Sox 28.1%, Twins 24.6% division winners. Blue Jays 86.6%, Mariners 85.0%, Rays 51.9%, White Sox 19.0%, Red Sox 17.4%, Twins 15.5%, Guardians 15.0% for the 3 Wildcards. At least Fangraphs expects the Orioles to tank with a meager 3.8% chance at the Wildcard.
  13. bean5302
    Not sure about that. Enlow last started a game on 8/6. 4.0 innings, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 Ks, 1 ER. It was a decent start, but the Twins have clearly been keeping his pitch count to about 60-65 max. He's been used a reliever a little earlier this year as well but last night was the first time he's ever been asked to pitch a single inning. If Enlow is going to be a reliever, there's limited reason to keep him at AA. Just fast track him to the big show.
  14. bean5302

    Where's Wallner?

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    It's not about a slow start per se. It's about sample sizes. It's not like you can expect players to never have a rough 10 game streak. Julien is overrated right now, IMHO. While he's stolen some bases, he gets caught 1/3 of the time because he lacks any speed. He's an absolute butcher at 2B with a high error rate and poor range, massively trailing his peers in the league in defensive stats. I see Julien as a DH with a very high hit/on base tool and moderate power. The question Julien will need to answer as he moves to AAA next year and into MLB is whether or not his hits and walks come from being passive and waiting for mistakes or having great pitch recognition.
  15. bean5302
    This road trip hurt. Cleveland beat Toronto and the White Sox beat Detroit today. The Twins are now tied with Chicago and 2.5 games back from the Guardians.
  16. bean5302
    Since Winder can't seemingly throw more than about 30-40 innings before his shoulder starts locking up, I don't see that as a likely solution.
  17. bean5302
    I agree with you. I think the biggest advantage with starting pitchers is their ability to give you 6+ innings of pitching while keeping you in the game. Why go out and trade for a starter if you're going to use them like an opener? Baldelli isn't the issue. The front office & Baldelli's game plan is the issue IMHO.
  18. bean5302
    It's math. You probably shouldn't argue math. Gordon attempted to intercept the ball at 75 feet from his original position. The second line, slightly further back is 83 feet long. The third line, furthest back is 99 feet long. Based on the approximate ball velocity and Nick Gordon's maximum sprint speed, here is a blown up image of where Nick Gordon would have been relative to the ball had he taken a different route. The ball is the white dot, the red star is Nick Gordon's position relative to the ball. As you can plainly see, the ball is traveling faster than Nick Gordon can run. I blew the image up to 400% of it's original size and measured the distance of each line, then calculated the distance traveled between the ball points and calculated the time needed to travel between those different points and re-plotted Gordon's position at his maximum speed. Math. Nick Gordon could not have possibly cut the ball off by attempting to play the ball deeper.
  19. bean5302
    Really? Cut the ball off? How was he going to do that? The ball was traveling 90mph (135 feet per second). Gordon runs 28 feet per second (18mph). The ball travels 4x as fast as Gordon's best sprint speed. There no mathematical, theoretical, hypothetical possible way Gordon can "cut the ball off" since it was slicing away from him towards the foul line. Gordon essentially took a right angle path to the ball, which is the shortest distance possible and the only possible chance he had at catching/or cutting the ball off. You're wrong. Flat out. There is no opinion involved here. This is math.
  20. bean5302
    Any self respecting manager would quit if all the on field decisions were being made for him and against his wishes. Furthermore, GM's generally don't hire managers who are not on board with a management philosophy the front office believes in. Baldelli buys into the TTO (third-time through order) logic, which I think is totally flawed. Tyler Mahle has been better TTO this year than STO both in ERA and FIP. My biggest problem with the TTO myth is how pitchers are pulled. If the pitcher runs into problems with the TTO, their leash is short. Often there are inherited base runners, inflating FIP, and the bullpen allows those runners to score, inflating ERA. The other problem I have is the drop in performance between FTO and STO is greater than STO and TTO. Not to mention, it doesn't matter if there's a drop in performance for TTO if the bullpen arms still aren't better than the starting pitcher in the first place.
  21. bean5302
    Wasn't his wrist. Hurt his elbow diving for a ball.
  22. bean5302
    Correction, Wallner had a rough start at AAA, but that seems mostly luck related. First 10 .105/.227/.105, OPS .332, 13.6% BB, 37.4% K Last 11 .286/.412/.619, OPS 1.031, 15.7% BB, 25.4% K Wallner's plate discipline is MUCH improved this year. He's become a dangerous hitter.
  23. bean5302
    Full No Trade Clause. Buxton is going nowhere, and even if the Twins wanted to trade him, he's really not worth much in regard to surplus value. Buxton is a good player. A very good player and he's on pace for 123 games and 510 plate appearances this year. This was the absolute BEST case scenario for Buxton. He is not the reason the Twins aren't winning.
  24. bean5302
    The Yankees have scored 3 or fewer runs 45, yes, FORTY FIVE times this year! I think their whole line up is going to be kicked to the curb. Side note, 6 fewer games scoring 3 or less, 13 or 14 games above the Twins in the standings. It's not the games the Twins score 3 or fewer causing the problem. It's needing to score 10 to win a game. It's the 46 games the Twins have allowed 5 or more runs. If you allow 5 or more, you have to score 6 or more to win. That's not reasonable. Even the very best offenses in the league don't average 6 runs or score 6+ runs even 1/2 the time. The Twins' pitching results are the problem.
  25. bean5302
    I like soft soap. Doesn't leave a gross pile of scum on the vanity top, refill containers are cheap and huge so they last forever and you can have a one with different scents on each side of the faucet. Looks nice, smells nice. Makes your guests feel like you went an extra step.
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