bean5302

Wallner over his last insignificant 14 PA, another way to put it is this: .214/.313/.857 OPS 1.170 wRC+ 173 12.5% BB, 56.3% K. He's taking walks. The K rate looks rough, but in the 4 games before your tiny sample size, his K rate was 10.0%... which is why 4 game samples are not relevant.

To clarify a couple things. OAA metrics are largely physical talent related. How far a player travels in "x" amount of time and how fast a throw gets to the base in "y" amount of time, and it translates the expected outs vs. actual into a value. In a way, they're kind of like hypothetical ceilings on performance. They ignore positioning, and good positioning can make a huge difference in the actual number of outs produced. OAA (and it's components) seem to be the least repeatable/reliable advanced fielding metric, IMHO. While I'm loathe to accept it, the "eye test" is still at least relevant because a lot of defensive value is still based on error rate, and errors are subjective based on the scorer. Julien has not been good at applying tags, for example, but it doesn't get recorded as an error. OAA + UZR/150 + Eye Test makes for a pretty good evaluation. Julien is absolutely better than he was when he came up. A lot better. I've seen him make some very nice pivot throws, etc. Speed changes over time as Statcast attempts to pick events where it thinks a player needs to go all out running, then averages those events into a number. If there is a small sample size and a fast runner jogs out what they think is a known outcome instead of full sprinting, it can throw the numbers way off. Julien is not the slowest runner on the team. At 26.6 ft/sec, he's a tick below MLB average this year (27.0). The following Twins are slower this year. Jeffers 26.4 Kepler 26.3 Farmer 26.1 Miranda 26.1 Santana 25.9 Lewis 25.8 Larnach 25.7 Vazquez 24.8 See the bolded names. This is why you can't completely trust sprint speeds. Small sample sizes, and playing through injuries can impact speed quite a bit. Lewis is about a 28 ft/sec runner. Kepler is probably 27 ft/sec these days. Julien was 27 ft/sec last year in a big sample (MLB average).

WAR is not a counting stat. It's similar to the concept of wRC+, positional adjustment and OAA multiplied by an innings played factor. Santana can still finish the year at negative WAR because a bad day today totally erases a good day yesterday as if that good day never happened in the first place. Right now, Santana sure seems locked in, and it's great for the Twins.

I think it'd be surprising if he landed somewhere given the fact he passed through waivers last time the Twins DFA'd him, and he certainly didn't improve his results. I think he'll probably wind up back in St. Paul after he clears.

Brooks Lee is really getting it done out there right now. I think he's going to force the Twins' hand after the All Star Break if he keeps this production up. While the RHB is still SSS, he's showing results.

Miranda is destroying RHP. He is not a platoon candidate.

Your rage hate of Wallner is bizarre.

You are not allowed to question Vazquez's utter dominance defensively. He is simply the greatest defensive catcher in the history of the world. So great it doesn't matter he's the worst hitter in MLB. Please note, the intangibles which cannot be calculated or quantified or which have already been statistically eliminated from calculable differing value between players such as "game calling" are the reason Vazquez is an elite catcher.

Santana hasn't produced at that level in 5 years. The chances he can sustain this production is 1%

They traded more than Povich in that deal. The Twins also shipped out Yannier Cano, who has been excellent for Baltimore, owning a 2.23 ERA in 109 games. The Twins need upper rotation arms, not more bullpen. At least Brock Stewart is throwing off the mound again.

Loved the Morneau mic drop. Morney qualified as a hitter 8 times in his career despite the concussion issues and 157+ games 4 times. Plate appearances in qualified seasons: 543, 661 (MVP), 668 (AS), 712 (AS/MVP#2), 590 (AS), 570, 635, 550 (batting title). So MVP, MVP runner up, 3x All Star, and a batting title. Guess he should have rested more...

Anybody else need to see more Jay Jackson? I know the Twins fixed him in those 3 innings he pitched in St. Paul, but it seems like they didn't use the waterproof duct tape on the repair.

Look, it's important to rest guys to prevent them from wearing down... except sometimes Baldelli's macro is broken and keeps repeating the same bullpen arms. LOL

In terms of drafting pipeline, Griffin Jax was drafted by Terry Ryan's front office in 2016 @Linus.

I don't think the Twins were really in the running for any of these shortstops in 2022, even if they had initial interest. As I recall, Boras called the Twins essentially out of the blue and proposed the pillow contract to probably shocked Derek Falvey. 2022 Contract Predictions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html Carlos Correa = 10yrs $320MM, Actual = 3yrs $105MM including 2 player options. 1yr $35MM final. Corey Seagar = 10yrs $305MM. Actual = 10yrs $325MM Marcus Semien = 6yrs $138MM. Actual = 7yrs $175MM Trevor Story = 6yrs $126MM. Actual = 6yrs $140MM Javier Baez = 5yrs $100MM. Actual = 6yrs $140MM Into 2023, I think the Twins were confident in Royce Lewis, but they really loved Correa in making him a 10 year $285MM offer, but they of course, knew it wasn't going to get him so it's a bit moot. Otherwise, I don't think the Twins were probably that active in pursuing shortstops legitimately. 2023 Contract Predictions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html Carlos Correa = 9yrs $288MM, Actual 13yrs $350MM, psych!, 12yrs $315MM, psych!!!!, 6yrs $200MM + 4 years $80MM vesting Trea Turner = 8yrs $268MM, Actual 11yrs $300MM Xander Boegarts = 7yrs $189MM, Actual 11yrs $280MM Dansby Swanson = 7yrs $154MM, Actual 7yrs $177MM In the case of every single free agent shortstop in both years, except Carlos Correa in both years, the final contract was larger than predicted. The likeliest Twins targets were on the shorter, lower AAV target range, but they went for far higher than expected. Story and Baez in particular have been disaster contracts. The Twins really shocked the MLB world when they signed Correa the first time to the pillow deal, but they left the world completely speechless and flabbergasted when they brought him back on a long term deal, beating out big name large market suitors like the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets in the process. It was absolutely mind boggling, and it made it very clear that Correa loved playing for the Twins. I'm quite convinced this would not have happened for any shortstop not named Carlos Correa given the exact same scenario. Playing the "what if" game, Marcus Semien would have been the best signing at 7yrs $175MM. He certainly could be handling SS given his elite 2B defense, and his WAR production would probably be even a little higher if he was at SS. Plus, the Twins probably wouldn't be too torn up about pushing him off SS to test Royce Lewis there. Semien makes $26MM per year through 2026, with his final year dropping to $20MM. A fair chunk of change cheaper than Correa. Still, it's hard for me to come to the conclusion the Twins didn't wind up with a great deal (and the 2nd best deal) for what amounts to 7yrs $235MM for Carlos Correa, with 4 vesting options at just $80MM more. Without that great deal both times, Correa doesn't land in Minnesota.

You're extending the topic to an overall review of the franchise operated by Falvey.

I think the Twins should have thrown him under the bus a lot harder than they did. The Twins demoted Kirilloff, but he then claimed "injury!" which makes it against MLB rules to demote him. It puts the front office in a messy bind and attracts the attention of the MLBPA and the commissioners office. 1. The injury has the same feel as Joe Ryan's non-injury, injury last year. Pouting because of poor performance so they are "hurt" even though there are no medical signs of a significant injury. 2. Most of us know when our bodies tell us it's time to stop doing something because of pain. Sometimes you can fight through it, but you know when you've hit a wall. Kirilloff is familiar with this issue. Time and time again in his career, and this time he's played through pain until he confessed it (seemingly always as an explanation for a slump). He has experience when he's hit that wall. Now, he's did one of two things: either he lent himself an excuse for poor performance rather than facing his problems or he actively hid the injury from teammates and coaches when the Twins are fighting for a playoff spot. No matter how you look at it, it's a irresponsible decision which put management under a magnifying glass, created a bit of a roster crunch, and it involved poor communication. I'd be surprised if reporting injuries wasn't something the management have doggedly talked about to the players. The fact the Twins have undoubtedly talked to their players about it, especially after Joe Ryan's mystery tightness last year, along with the way Kirilloff went about reporting the injury AFTER the demotion is the reason Baldelli would admonish the conduct of Kirilloff.

I'm well aware they've all been hitting well lately. Their season stats are still poor, and if they remain at the same level they're currently at, both Farmer and Margot will be DFA candidates because the hot streak will have come to an end.

Yeah, Bailey Ober, #4 starter. Same as Terry Ryan (Jose Berrios) or Bill Smith (Kyle Gibson) produced in less drafting years, with Falvey now overseeing his 8th MLB draft. Falvey's been here quite a long time now. Winder hasn't been a rotation candidate in 2 years and Varland hasn't been serviceable in the rotation over his 103 innings with a 5.30 ERA. 5.30 ERA with opponents slugging .512 off him is not fringe, it's unplayable. He has looked potentially good out of the bullpen, though. Late though it is, Simeon Woods-Richardson is shaping up nicely, but that's not "draft" related, and that's what this article is about. Drafting for a pipeline. Falvey's results on the Minnesota Twins roster from drafting pitchers has been very poor as of right now. That said, it does look like after years of trying, he may finally have built himself a pipeline that reaches all the way to the big show. Guys like Balazovic and Winder were sure fire bets, too, though.

Yeah. It starts with character, and it ends with flaw.

Before all the back patting, MiLB performances don't win MLB championships. Festa is literally the only prospect mentioned who's actually looked potentially good as a starter in AAA, maybe projectable into an MLB rotation. He's had some big hiccups with control, but there's been plenty to be impressed with in his progress this year. Varland's 2 sparkly appearances recently come with more loud contact, and that's some of the same stuff he struggled with previously as a starter. I don't think he'll be serviceable in an MLB rotation.

6 $50MM+ 2B contracts for active players in MLB right now. Agreed utility players don't usually get paid. I suppose that's one upside for "positional flexibilty" for the Twins. They get to underpay their players.

If they're still playing so poorly their small contracts can't be moved, it's DFA time.

Two of the most important jobs for a front office is to draft and develop talent. Drafting is no different than trading for players. In essence, the Twins trade their draft pick slot back to MLB for a player. Critical evaluation of the drafting and development success for Falvey is warranted. It would be totally stunning if ownership didn't look at draft successes and failures. In that regard, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee may ultimately save Falvey's job because up until Lewis' shocking turnaround in 2022, things looked awfully grim for Falvey in the draft success rate on high rounders. Criticism of Prielipp as a choice is 100% warranted. Canterino was a workhorse in college so seeing him fall apart physically has been surprising. However, Prielipp was actively rehabbing a major surgery, and didn't pitch at all in 2022, with just 7 innings in 2021. The Twins had very limited ability to see Prielipp's stuff on display, similar to Cavaco. Prielipp may yet turn into something, but I don't consider him a prospect anymore. Top 3 round potential bust picks: Leach, Enlow, Cavaco, Canterino, Sabato, Soularie, Miller, Hajjar, Prielipp, Considering Falvey traded away or lost 4 CBB/3rd round picks in trades or signings 2018-2020, the misses on high round picks is more concentrated. Even more so because of the number of prospects with potential or success at the MLB level Falvey has traded away after drafting. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner looked like probable busts until 2022 so turnarounds happen, and the last couple of years of drafting have produced some potentially great players, but it's fair to look at the previous results.

Willi Castro's will probably wind up with a wRC+ 110 type of season again this year. I expect he's probably a plus defender as a full time 2B. Basically, he's what Jorge Polanco was in terms of value. Probably a 3.5 WAR player at the end of this year is my guess. I'd suspect Castro will be closer to the $7MM range than $5MM if he plays at or above that. This Twins' front office has shown a strong affinity for the super utility player. Marwin Gonzalez was kind of the first go-around, Kyle Farmer was expected to fill that role, and Castro really outperformed expectations owning it as the latest so I'm sure the front office is pretty enamored with him. Then again, the only real reason to keep a guy nearing free agency is if you don't have somebody coming up through the system to replace him or they're a franchise cornerstone. The Twins have plenty of highly projectable depth who may well be able to fill Castro's boots for 1/10th the cost. With the Twins competing for a playoff spot, I could see them trading Margot or Farmer should they rebound or DFA'ing them at the deadline if they regress back to early season form. It'd be surprising for the Twins to trade Castro this year, but keeping Castro beyond the end of this season feels wasteful to me right now. Have to see how the year plays out more.