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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I hate to break this to people, but Wallner was drafted in 2019. Wallner's ETA would have been 2021 at the very earliest and 2022 would have been a perfectly reasonable timeframe for him even with a full 2020 season. He's been promoted at a good pace. Theoretical No Lost 2020 schedule. 2019 A- Ball 2020 A+/AA 2021 AA/AAA 2022 AAA/MLB Would anybody believe that wasn't a solid promotion schedule for a late comp A pick? Now remove 2020... Wallner's moving right along in the minors. He was drafted a year after Larnach and 2 years after Rooker.
  2. bean5302
    At the game tonight. Here's what I remember. I ate all the things. I looked up and saw Joe Ryan at 100 pitches at 5.1 innings. He made it to 107 on the night. Ryan came into the game averaging 87 pitches a game (by far the highest of the Twins starters). Ryan wasn't working super efficiently early on, but settled into things a little bit better after the first couple innings and really turned it into a nice start overall. Garlick looked really good out there. No rust to be seen while playing solid defense and making a lot of great contact, and the Twins hitters really fed off one another and there were a number of near hits as well. I'm going to try to stay positive on this post and leave out the negatives. Twins win!
  3. bean5302
    Nick Gordon is the Buxton replacement for the rest of the year. Billy Hamilton is an emergency depth/defensive replacement/pinch runner type.
  4. bean5302
    Were there perhaps other assets the Twins had on the MLB or MiLB system which could have been used to secure a starting pitcher as good or better than Gray? Yeah, that's what I thought... This false dilemma is awful common on the boards lately.
  5. bean5302
    Speaking of Petty, I'd be surprised if he wasn't in AA next year. 5 starts in A+ with a 10.38 K/9 a 2.91 BB/9 and a 3.17 FIP. He's dominated his last 3 starts. That one could cost Falvey his job.
  6. bean5302
    The season strike out percentages don't tell a very clear story on Wallner. His strikeout rate has improved every single month this year. April = 39.2% strikeouts May = 31.4% strikeouts June = 29.5% strikeouts July = 29.5% strikeouts with a promotion to AAA August = 28.4% strikeouts Wallner has also reached base in 20 of 21 games this month with a consistent high walk rate. Seems like he's adapting to a more sustainable approach. Not sure how well Gallo is as a comp. Gallo struck out a lot more than Wallner in the upper minors (pretty consistent 37%) and he covered center field when he came up as I recall. His sprint speeds were on par with Nick Gordon. Even today, Gallo would outrun Larnach, Arraez and Correa. Basically, Gallo had significant defensive value and that's a major reason why Gallo was in the big show at age 21.
  7. bean5302
    Varland has been everything you might hope for and more at AAA. There's nothing not to like. Elite strikeout rates, excellent walk rates, reasonable BABIP and strand rates. It might be worth calling his number now so he's playoff eligible and move Chris Archer to the pen.
  8. bean5302
    If all he wants is the moist guaranteed, he should be using oil and not butter in his cake recipes. Butter can dry out.
  9. bean5302
    Do you think Wallner just needs more time to adapt to his buy-in philosophy of looking for better pitches and taking walks if the pitches aren't there to hit? He really took a huge step forward this year, but it's got to be hard to suddenly find the balance of what's too aggressive and what's too passive?
  10. bean5302
    Bundy... 89.2mph 4.51 xFIP burn him at the stake! run him out of town! don't trust him! Ryan... 91.9mph 4.45 xFIP isn't he dreamy??!!!
  11. bean5302
    Since 80% of all MLB starters walk out for the 6th inning (on average), I'd say that's all MLB teams except the Twins
  12. bean5302
    WHIP is the most underrated stat for pitchers. 1.52 in AAA = unplayable at MLB. Anything north of 1.40 isn't worth a roster spot. In any case, it's not just walks which have been a major problem for Moran. He also gives up a ton of hits. 9.0 hits per 9 innings with a .429 BABIP and a 16.7% HR/FB rate. While you may be temped to infer he's been unlucky, high BABIP and high HR/FB rates are also indicative of pitches not being deceptive enough to fool professional batters. I see Moran as similar to Drew Strotman. If they throw strikes, their pitches get destroyed. If they don't throw strikes, too many AAA hitters can lay off them and take a free base. Until Moran throws strikes and gives up on batters always chasing junkballs, he won't be able to prove his value and he won't be worth the risk at the MLB level... If you think Pagan is rough, Moran looks like a lesser version of him right now. The real question is why the highly touted pitcher development guru Derek Falvey's coaching staff can't get Moran to throw strikes or Woods-Richardson to fix his delivery mechanics and be consistent on his fastball being at an MLB level...
  13. bean5302
    The playoff hunt.
  14. bean5302
    Not sure if it's good or bad the White Sox beat Baltimore tonight. At least it keeps the Orioles from expanding their lead over the Twins in the Wildcard hunt, but the White Sox are now tied with the Twins in the standings. 4 games back in both the division and wildcard. At least it seems like my concerns the White Sox would put it together this year are fading fast and the Guardians have a pretty tough schedule the next couple of weeks. Of course, the Twins have 1 more game against the Astros before taking on the Giants and Red Sox, two teams with similar records to the Twins who play in much, much, much tougher divisions. I don't have much faith in Minnesota putting it together at this point.
  15. bean5302
    Correa does not need $300MM to win. Or $200MM for that matter. He doesn't need $35MM AAV. All he needs to do is beat 2 years and $70MM with an AAV in the $25MM+ range and he wins. Correa takes 5-6 years $150-175MM long, long, LONG before he he'd take another $35MM 1 year contract with a 1 year player option. He'll get that. Story and Baez got 6yrs $140MM and they were a much lower ranked target than Correa. Again, in the absolute worst case scenario, Correa signs another contract to the exact terms the Twins accepted and Correa gets another year guaranteed. There is just no world in which Correa doesn't do as well or better than his contract with the Twins today. The narrative Correa has only 2 options: opt in or opt out and desperately seek an unlikely long term deal at $35MM AAV+ is ludicrous.
  16. bean5302
    Bundy's ERA is 8.53 TTO? Well, since he's only pitched 12.2 innings during TTO it's a pretty small sample. More interestingly, his FIP is 2.49 and xFIP is 2.96 on TTO this year. Tough to say what would have happened, all I know is Rocco pulled him early again and the bullpen, again, immediately gave up runs.
  17. bean5302
    You don't need inside information to recognize the extreme risk for no reward Correa gets for exercising his player option.
  18. bean5302
    He's TWENTY SEVEN right now. 27. A year older? Sure, why not use his player options for the next couple years and hit the market at age 30? Yeah, makes total sense.
  19. bean5302
    Triple slash numbers mean nothing these days. MLB has played around with the pitchers (seems like sticky stuff is back) and balls to the point where HR/FB rates and general hitting statistics aren't static enough to pull much from them. wRC+ and OPS+ peg Correa as a 25-30% better than average hitter playing the second most valuable defensive position in baseball. Correa's bWAR is 3.3 already, and I suspect he'll crest 4 this year. Fangraphs' 2.4 fWAR doesn't make any sense to me at all. Seems broken. Correa owns 2.4 fWAR with almost no defensive value despite his UZR being positive and him playing SS so Fangraphs' formula is seemingly broken for Correa. In any case, WAR isn't particularly stable as it's not a counting stat. WAR works in an exponential way with a single change being multiplied by every inning and every plate appearance over the entire year. I suspect Correa will end the year over 4.0 bWAR and somewhere close to that in fWAR. All that said, even if Correa was viewed as a 3 WAR player worth only $24MM per year by conventional logic, he'd still be able to secure a contract for 4-5yrs and $100MM. Minimum. He's only 27 years old right now... Of course, after that, he'd have another contract waiting for him after that should he remain healthy. The risk to Correa opting in is enormous.
  20. bean5302
    Correa could decline the option and worst case scenario get a 1 year contract for $35MM with a player option for $35MM from a dozen teams in baseball. Correa does not have to sign a long term contract to win by opting out... He just has to sign a contract equal to or better than what he has now. It's inconceivable a team wouldn't give Correa a 1yr + Player option contract (including the Twins). Basically, there's absolutely nothing for Correa to lose by not exercising his option...
  21. bean5302
    Correa's player options were always BAD for the Twins. If Correa opts in to his contract with the Twins, it's a BAD thing because it meant he's severely injured or terrible. The options were always to protect Correa from the potential risk of an injury and a down season. Barring severe injury or a massive slump, Correa would be an absolute fool to exercise his player option for 2023. Worst case scenario, you don't think he could re-arrange a 1 yr $35MM contract with a player option for $35MM in the second year? Of course he could. There is utterly no possible way to believe what's on the table at this point is in any way shape or form beneficial to Correa.
  22. bean5302
    If all their best players are at home on the sofa, there's a pretty good chance of that, isn't there? Feel free to read my post any time you want before creating a strawman.
  23. bean5302

    Where's Wallner?

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Oh gotcha, the professional scouts from the sites I linked you to are no good. We need the other professional scouts. The ones who are employed exclusively on team staffs who don't share scouting data with the public. THOSE scouts.
  24. bean5302
    aaaaaaaannnnddd the part many people here are ignoring is they just shut Buxton down for 8 days after 7/17. He either strained his hip or significantly aggravated what was a sore hip and made his way to the 10 day IL, but I'll tell you this much... a true hip strain will likely keep Buxton out until mid September at least. So the people hoping and praying for the Twins to have their best player collecting dust on a shelf during the most important stretch of the season are getting their wish.
  25. bean5302
    If it's time to shut Buxton down, then the Twins will take one of their most valuable players out of the lineup while they're in desperate need to win games. I'm so tired of these threads every time Buxton doesn't go 5/5 with 5 home runs and 5 stolen bases (yes, I know that's almost theoretically impossible) because everybody knows a healthy Buxton has never hit a ball with an exit velocity below 300mph and it's impossible he could ever strike out if his <insert body part> wasn't hurting him. Since the All Star Game .247/.337/.461 OPS .798 wRC+ 131 August .245/.362/.388 OPS .750 wRC+ 124 This absolute obsession with the idea Buxton cannot possibly slump drives me insane. He's a high strikeout, low walk (moderate walk this year) hitter with a lot of power which is going to always make him prone to feast and famine at the plate. Many of Buxton's injuries are chronic, meaning they will likely never disappear. Chronic wrist, chronic back, chronic hip, chronic knees, chronic migraines. This is why Buxton is such a tough case at him playing a full season. Shutting him down will not likely make these go away. Ever. If they shut him down for 5 years and just brought him back for the final year of his contract, he'd STILL HAVE THESE ISSUES. If the Twins feel Buxton's condition could deteriorate and cause permanent issues, they'll shut him down. If it's just a matter of playing through pain and treatment for chronic ailments they were already aware of, they'll keep sending him out as much as they can.
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