bean5302

Farmer's been above average at the plate since late April. How much depends on which date you choose, but anywhere from wRC+ 103 to 128. He's been good, apart from the TOOTBLAN. Lewis is entrenched at 3B. Correa is entrenched at SS. Castro, Farmer, Martin, can all play 2B, plus Julien (who is on 40 man, unlike Lee) Chris Parmelee a24 - .338/.457/.645 OPS 1.102 18.1% BB, 18.4% K, wRC+ 202 in his first go-'round of AAA. OMG! Superstar!!!! Jake Cave a22 - .458/.517/.667 OPS 1.184, 10.3% BB, 27.6% K, wRC+ 239 in his first small sample of AAA. MVP! MVP! Oswaldo Arcia a22 - .313/.426/.594 OPS 1.020, 14.2% BB, 23.9% K, wRC+ 186 in AAA at first. HoF'er guaranteed!!!!

The eyeball test is limited to the 5 plays he remembers Julien being terrible at. Applying tags and positioning on attempted steals, etc. That's the issue with the "eyeball" (aka selective memory) test is people remember a handful of plays. Julien's had 168 chances this year. Guessing the eyeball test remembers 5 of them. UZR/150 pegs Julien at -4.2 this year. It's the metric I generally prefer to use if I'm selecting a single defensive metric in a vacuum as it's generally fairly consistent. Mixing in the OAA (physical ceilings) +4, and Rdrs/1200 at -3, gives a pretty good picture. Julien has room to grow still, but he's still below average, at least IMHO.

Wallner is fast, and his arm is an absolutely cannon, but his reactions, and acceleration hold him back a lot. Until he improves on his reaction and first step, he'll never be better than adequate in the corners. Shame. He has the tools to be better than Kepler.

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/chicago-white-sox-listening-to-trade-offers-for-outfielder-luis-robert-jr-set-high-asking-price-juan-soto-padres-nationals-2022-01hzz6e38hac The White Sox are asking for more than Soto brought in last year. They're nuts, and they've been nuts all year. Something like Ober + Varland + 1 top (1-5), +1 (5 - 10). Luis Robert, Jr. is an solid, but not above average, center fielder on a pretty sizeable contract. He's under contract for the same amount as Byron Buxton next year at $15MM, and his $20MM club options for 2026-2027 aren't worth much given Robert's true performance in the 3 prior years (3 WAR average). I'd rather the Twins not trade the White Sox a new farm system for a guy who's kind of a mirror of Buxton (without the elite defense)

Posted this on another thread. The Twins spent a higher percentage of their revenues on player salary than either the Dodgers or the Yankees last year. If that's what you're looking for, The Angels or Rockies or White Sox are the teams for you. They typically spend a ton of money and a high percentage of revenues on player salary year in and out! Go root for them! You'll be happy knowing you have a competitive team destined for the World Series! Don't fall into the trap of the Padres = Dying owner's last wish. Mets = New owner out to flaunt his wealth and prove you can buy a World Series

They've also had the weakest schedule in MLB. They're also 6-2 in extra innings They're also 12-9 in one run games. Their high end hitters have been massively lucky and are due for colossal regression Kwan wOBA .443 vs. xwOBA .371 = -0.72 pts Fry wOBA .408 vs. .364 = -0.44 pts Ramirez wOBA .364 vs. .310 = -0.54 pts Naylor wOBA .352 vs. .359 = +0.07 pts Brennan wOBA .319 vs. .320 = +0.01 pts But most of all, the Guardians are using weighted dice on their saving throws vs. reasonable outcomes. They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

If we're going with jokes, I add. Brooks Lee probably does live in Minneapolis, and the Twins are in Phoenix and Seattle for the next couple weeks so sure. Brooks Lee can be in Minneapolis NOW.

I think it's worth noting Edouard Julien is hitting again, too. There just isn't space on the 26 man roster, and Lee isn't even on the 40 man. In order to get Lee on the 26 man, they have to DFA somebody, clear space on the 26 man, and have Lee leapfrog Julien. DFA candidates include Kyle Farmer, Ronny Henriquez, Josh Winder 26 man demotion/DFA = Kyle Farmer I could see the Twins trading either Julien or Lee, but they're not going to want to sell low on Julien.

Up until this year, Lee was a black hole at the plate vs. LHP, so even if he was technically a switch hitter, it was kind of just a formality. He was really a LHB who could stand in the RH batters box. That's a big reason why, from all of my understanding, Lee was never a threat to make the opening day roster. The Twins wanted him to prove he could actually switch hit before finding an opening for him. In a tiny sample size of 30 PA, Lee has crushed it as a RHB this year, without any glaring problems. .321/.367/.679, OPS 1.045 6.7% BB, 16.7% K, .429 BABIP He's played in only 24 games this year. Just about enough to be considered a rehab assignment. I think the Twins are going to want him to get in a little more time before they add him to the 40 man and call him up.

I don't recall ever seeing any reputable source who expected Brooks Lee on the 26 man to start the season. I'd like a link to that source.

Let's not forget Houston's bungle the year before Aiken, either. Two 1st overall picks, back to back, that were total and complete busts. At least the Astros traded Appel off. As you point out, mid first rounders aren't much different than late first rounders in terms of the studies of success rates.

Lugo had quite a bit of success as a starter: 2016 47 IP, 2.68 ERA 2017 98.1 IP, 4.76 ERA 2018 23.0 IP, 3.91 ERA 2020 26.1 IP, 6.15 ERA In 2020, the Mets just randomly decided one day at the end of the season Lugo was going to be a starter and instead of pitching 1 inning, he was going to pitch 5 or 6. Lugo had a couple really awful starts that skewed his numbers, but again, pretty successful. Here's an article supporting what you're talking about, though. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-relievers-succeeding-as-starting-pitchers-in-2024 I just don't think Jax is going to be so effective.

Varland's unlikely to be a viable rotation arm. He had some nice results in his last couple appearances (especially the 4 inning relief appearance), but the rocket ship contact velocity he's been giving up isn't going to produce sustainable good appearances. That said, if Varland moves into the 'pen again, he's probably there permanently, assuming he can be effective as a reliever.

Lopez's brutal stretch... AKA 2024. It's great to get a good start out of Lopez. He's not going to be able to recover to have a decent season at this point, but maybe he can whip himself into shape where he's good for the playoffs again.

I noted this yesterday, but WPA cares about how much of a difference the performance of a player made to the outcome of the game. Ober pitched well, but he could have pitched terrible and still won the game. His WPA was low because he gave up a run in the first inning (9.00 ERA) after the Twins took a 1-0 lead at the top of the inning. This means Ober's pitching made the Twins much less likely to win the game. After that, the Twins destroyed the Athletics pitchers and spotted Ober a 6 run lead, and the Twins packed on more from there. So Ober could have pitched pretty terrible the rest of the game and it wouldn't have impacted the outcome of the game. Thus, low WPA. Today, Pablo Lopez put up zeroes in a close game, and those zeroes were important for the Twins to win. Thus, Lopez's pitching had a much greater impact on whether or not the Twins won. High WPA.

I wouldn't say you're critical of the organization so much as you're on a path of doom and gloom, pessimism, and anger. The ownership is not going to change, and the Twins are never going to spend like the Yankees. It's pretty clear you're unhappy, and I'd even say you come across as miserable. Like I said, and I wasn't joking, you should go be a Yankees fan or a Dodgers fan or something. Find a team where the owners are willing to spend nearly unlimited money since that seems important to your perception of competitiveness of a team. Baseball is a game. Following a team is a hobby. Your hobbies shouldn't make you miserable.

Seattle is my favorite. I think Nike killed it there because it doesn't look like a college or MiLB team jersey, but that probably means Nike isn't as happy with the design since it seems like that's what they're looking for. The Colorado design is kinda cool (it's directly lifted from their licenese plates), but I dislike the hat. I also like the Angels, and I'd be all in on Atlanta without the "The" next to A. Just conjures up "the" Ohio State pretentiousness. MLB uniforms are for the absolute elite teams/players in the world. They should have class.

He's 2 months away from age 23 in A+ ball so you'd have to think the Twins are looking to promote him after the all star break the way he's hitting. That said, he's miserable at controlling the run game. Not sure if that's fixable at this point. Arm and pop time are the big factors at play, and the results don't suggest progress or projectability here. It looks like the Twins are trying to keep his bat in the lineup by giving him about 1/3 of his playing days as a LF/DH.

Sabato's plate approach has changed. He had an interview years ago where he talked about his plate approach basically consisting of waiting for mistake pitches to crush. It's a great theory, but as he moved up the line, the mistakes just weren't there anymore. He needed to adapt his approach to be more aggressive at the plate, and he has. Sabato's reduction in strike outs (18%) comes with an even larger reduction in walks (35%) vs. 2023. Instead of having a nice projectable walk rate and poor projection on the K rate, both numbers are now borderline-ish projectable. Still, Sabato's batting average crept up from the abyss so his mediocre OBP didn't regress, but like the hitch in BB:K rates, his power hitter profile completely vanished to start the year, managing a pretty pitiful .099 ISO through May despite this being his 3rd season go-'round in AA. Now as the calendar page has flipped to June, his power stroke has returned (.344 ISO), and his K rate has stayed about the same. It's a very small sample size for a player who has struggled at AA for years now. Hopefully, he's figured something out, but even in June, his production is borderline for projecting as a DH caliber bat at the MLB level. Considering Sabato is graded as a terrible fielder, and his numbers certainly don't look like they've gotten better in that regard, he's probably a right handed batting DH candidate so his bat is the only thing which can save him. I'd expect Sabato to be left off the roster yet again this year unless he does something truly remarkable. He was rule 5 eligible last year as well as I recall. These types of players who have a burst of production out of nowhere are usually viewed as long shots and ignored by other teams like Anthony Prato was last year.

I don't know about that. We've seen Jax as a starter, and it wasn't pretty. A major reason Jax's stuff plays up in the bullpen is the extra velocity he can reach back to find. As a starter, Jax had a 92.8mph fastball. Fastball Velo, Slider Velo, Cutter Velo, Curve Velo, Change Velo 2021 SP = 92.8, 83.3, N/A, 79.9, 86.7 2022 RP = 95.4, 86.4, N/A, 82.6, 89.8 2023 RP = 96.5, 86.7, 96.5, N/A, 91.1 2024 RP = 97.0, 89.2, 96.6, 87.0, 92.3 Stuff+ Rating Fastball, Slider, Cutter, Curve, Change 2021 SP = 82, 135, N/A, 89, 70 2022 RP = 98, 155, N/A, 127, 76 2023 RP = 110, 151, 101, N/A, 96 2024 RP = 121, 168, 95, 153, 98 Jax in the rotation sees his pitch velocity drop by probably 3-4mph. His "stuff" may not even be effective anymore. It all starts with the fastball. Drop 3-4mph off his fastball, and it will almost certainly drop to well below average. His slider will drop off a lot, too. His cutter will be ineffective, and his changeup will go back to sucking. The curveball might hang in there.

Oh, also @Ted Schwerzler since I didn't see this obligatory post with: I thought I'd put that in for you so it didn't feel like something was missing from the comments section, but you just couldn't figure out what it was, LOL!

Actually, they do sometimes. Flame throwing pitchers with great movement often have relatively high walk rates, but even seemingly borderline sky high walk rates don't matter if hitter can't touch your stuff. It's how Nolan Ryan made the HoF as a starter. Led MLB in walks 7 times and has issued the most walks in MLB history by nearly 1,000. 2,795 walks issued, #2 is Steve Carlton 1,833 in similar innings pitched. Career BB/9 for Ryan? 4.7. Ryan never threw strikes. He never tried to throw stuff guys could hit. He was like Francisco Liriano, but healthy for a gajillion years. Strike out a ton of guys, don't give up hits, and the BB rate can creep into the 4s while a pitcher, especially a reliever, can be dominant. Aroldis Chapman in his prime was up around 4 BB/9 regularly. 8 (27%) of the top 30 relievers in ERA this year have 4.00+ BB/9 4 (13%) of the top 31 relievers in FIP this year have a 4.00+ BB/9 3 (10%) of the top 30 relievers in xFIP this year have a 4.00+ BB/9 4 (13%) of the top 31 relievers in fWAR this year have a 4.00+ BB/9 Alcala doesn't just have this year's results on record, either. He was utterly dominant to end 2021 as well, and I think we're all seeing why Falvey and Co. kept tendering Alcala contracts even though he was in arbitration years and producing no value on the field due to injuries.

Yeah, I actually can. The Pohlads cut payroll this year. No idea what's in the future for TV contracts, etc. If the payroll bounces back to $150MM, things change again. The $10MM this year just shows Gray's flexibility on how the salary got to him. The guy wanted to play for a competitive team, and Gray is on record saying the Twins checked all the boxes for him on an extension. Front load more of it and don't bring in Santana or resign Farmer. Tada! It's easy.

I see you conveniently left out the Brewers, Mariners, Red Sox and Royals who are all over .500, legit playoff caliber teams, and the Twins are 10-4 against them. As with any cherry picking, it does give you a perspective. Miss the forest for the trees. The Twins have been a very up and down team, but the 17-2 (.895) record against any group of teams in MLB is pretty good. The worst team in that group (White Sox) have won 21 games. They're beating somebody... What I take away from the Twins' record is this. They're destroying bad teams, beating good teams and struggling against great teams.

A team will have a place for Arraez as long as his OBP is .340+ as he'll have an above league average bat, guaranteed. Willi Castro .333 xwOBA Luis Arraez .333 xwOBA