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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Fastball is hard on the elbow. Velocity has the biggest impact. Curveball is the most stressful per mph, but since it's thrown slower, the overall stress is lower.
  2. bean5302
    Agreed. Woods-Richardson's results were better in the second half, but his underlying numbers weren't exactly glowing. The 20.5% K vs. 12.0% BB was almost exactly the same. The .230 BABIP was unsustainable as was the 0.79/9 HR rate. He didn't pitch better, he just got better results. If Woods-Richardson is able to sustain the velocity improvement for a few games in a stable competitive atmosphere, I'll take notice because I'm pretty sure the results will follow.
  3. bean5302
    Somebody will be selling, but the market will be inferno hot, I expect. The Marlins have Nick Gordon now so I don't think they'll be selling... LOL
  4. bean5302
    Playoff teams. 90+ innings. Mean average leaders in ERA. Twins were Gray, Ober, Lopez for reference. SP1 - 3.13 SP2 - 3.56 SP3 - 3.87 SP4 - 4.08 SP5 - 4.40
  5. bean5302
    I'd be really surprised if the Twins don't grab a front line starter or a bat (if needed) at the trade deadline. $30MM becomes $10MM pro-rated at the deadline.
  6. bean5302
    I don't think the Twins view Raya as a conventional starter at this point. Limiting him to 50 pitches per start last year despite Raya being healthy, and despite allowing him to go to 70-80 pitches the year prior (2022) is clear as day to me on projection. It's pretty common to see college guys throwing 100 innings in a season. That's about where I'd like to see Soto, if he's healthy.
  7. bean5302
    I'm pessimistic about SP2 and SP3 living up to the 3.40-3.80s in ERAs I expect of their peers. That said, taking a look at pitcher results from last year suggests I might be expecting a little too much. SP1 (1-30) = 2.25-3.46 SP2 (31-60) = 3.47-3.87 SP3 (61-90) = 3.91-4.44 SP4 (91-120) = 4.45-5.06 SP5 (121-141) = 5.09-7.40 Wonder if we're headed back into the steroid era for run production.
  8. bean5302
    So, in the tech industry, you know what the definition for an "expert" is? Like, hey, we're bringing in an expert on xyz project. The definition is "somebody who lives more than 500 miles away." Clearly, a tech and analytics driven front office uses that type of philosophy. Margot is an "expert" hitter the Twins brought in.
  9. bean5302
    Woods-Richardson needs to do this for several games in a row before I'll bat an eye. His problem has been keeping steady on his mechanics for years and years and years now. Largely great at 91-92mph; un-rosterable at 88-89mph. I don't know why Woods-Richardson has struggled so much with mechanics, but this is probably his last chance season to remain on a roster and get a good opportunity at the MLB level.
  10. bean5302
    The Twins sold out zero games in September last year. Average attendance was 24k. Max attendance was 32k. Minimum was 18k. The Twins ranked 19th, 20th, 19th in attendance over the past 3 years. Not sure there's a lot of floor left to find as the attendance last year was similar to post contraction talk Metrodome years, but it was up slightly from 2022 (worst attendance since 2001) The Colorado Rockies (59-103) average attendance was 32k last year. Attendance does usually correlate with performance, but it doesn't need to. The Rockies do a great job getting people to come out to the game even if they stink. Dave St. Peter does not.
  11. bean5302
    If Soto is pitching well, I'd hope not. It'd be grounds for termination considering Falvey's already poor success developing pitching. Raya seemed to be on about a 50 max pitch count last year after going up to 70-80 pitches in 2022. I don't even view Raya as a starter anymore after only going 62 innings despite being healthy.
  12. bean5302
    I get the feeling Martin is viewed like Gordon was in 2021.
  13. bean5302
    Kepler hit LHP pretty well in AA. He still hit for power vs. lefties so his splits weren't so brutal. Wallner and Kirilloff have had success at generating respectable power vs. LHP in the upper minors as well. 2015 = .319/.391/.473 OPS .863 (.072 OPS less than RHP) 2014 = .273/.301/.390 OPS .691 (.044 OPS less than RHP) Julien hasn't been able to drive the ball against lefties at all, even in the high minors. I don't think it would be absolutely out of the question Julien could ever kind of hold his own at the MLB level against LHP, but I'd be shocked if he was ever more than serviceable vs. them. If there's a player on the Twins roster who should probably be protected from starting against LHP, it's Julien. Just my opinion.
  14. bean5302
    I'm all for sponsors like Official Fried Chicken. I might even try them again (maybe) after boycotting them last year. I found their chicken good, but their service to be abysmal. Frequently missing items from orders, unable to use sweet spot except through an extremely buggy and tedious mobile app. When items are missing, you have to get into the long line and wait to get to the front to tell them "hey, can you give me my drink I ordered now?" or "I'm missing this part of my order" etc.
  15. bean5302
    Not to mention the platoon advantage itself is a little sketchy. 2023 RHB vs. LHP wRC+ 110 median out of 239 batters with 50+ PA 2023 LHB vs. RHP wRC+ 100 median out of 180 batters with 50+ PA A good hitter takes up 1 roster spot. 2 below average hitters who can hit a little better than average against only RHP or LHP take up 2 roster spots for no net added value, and when the opponents swap RHP/LHP/RHP, you can't keep swapping your hitters back and forth as you're noting.
  16. bean5302
    Sure, Polanco and Brooks Lee could have brought back a young, cost controlled pitcher with an upper rotation ceiling. Might have needed to toss in a guy like Festa to finish that deal for a guy like Luzardo. I don't favor that because I didn't feel the Twins had a lot of upside talent on the farm after trading a ton away for pitching over the past few years. It's become almost a revolving door. Falvey fails to develop pitching, Twins trade farm talent for short term control to solidify their mid/upper rotation.
  17. bean5302
    Does a platoon split even matter when bunting? Baldelli really seems to be infatuated with Margot. After declaring Kirilloff a lost cause for being an outfielder, it's nice to see the Twins put him out there where I think he'd be best utilized and add the most value to the team. Heck of a day for him, too!
  18. bean5302
    I don't think Polanco would have moved things a ton in terms of getting a real pitcher, but I do think the Twins could have done more to shed his contract to open the door for a front end starter signing. https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/11/5/23948211/bean5302s-twinkietown-off-season-plan That's what I would have done from an offseason plan standpoint as of Nov 5th 2023.
  19. bean5302
    Larnach is a good stop-gap to start in the corners for a rebuilding team or as a depth option, but he's not good enough to be starting more than 40 or so games for a team hoping to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, he's also hurt quite a bit. Just 93 total MiLB/MLB games in 2021, 63 MiLB/MLB games in 2022 and 130 games between AAA/MLB last year. The book is closed on him. He's a lefty version of Kyle Garlick. Jose Miranda isn't a slugger, but he generates enough power to be better than league average at the plate. He'll need to improve his plate discipline and start taking more walks to be more than an acceptable regular. He's a little lighter hitting Eddie Rosario of the infield.
  20. bean5302
    Why is Miranda a platoon player? He was above average vs. righties in 2022 with a .265/.335/.390 .725 OPS wRC+ 110 batting line. That's the same as Kirilloff's career wRC+ 112 vs. righties (though Kirilloff managed a great wRC+ 138 against RH pitching last year aided by a .374 BABIP). Miranda was fine as a full time 1B in my opinion, and the money they spent to sign Santana could have gotten wound up getting J.D. Martinez's $4.5MM this year (with tiny $1.5MM deferrals in the 2030s). Then the Twins would have an actual DH. I get the feeling neither of us is too happy to have Santana on the roster as part of the big picture.
  21. bean5302
    I don't care for using OAA on it's own (assuming that's what you're using to say Miranda is a poor 1B). OAA a wildly inconsistent statistic whipping around from god-like values down to the depths from year to year even on veteran players. The value for 1B appears to be broken for Miranda in 2022 as well. Miranda's UZR/150 was +3.3 at first base in 2022 with only 3 errors in 77 games played there. Hard to find a way his defense could be so awful at 1B if he's not making errors and recording a normal amount of outs and assists at the position. It's not like there are a lot of 1B with elite range and speed to make up for a solid error rate.
  22. bean5302
    The Twins still have a lineup constructed with a lot of strikeout prone hitters. It's less problematic than last year, but it's till a high K unit. My hypothesis is lineups prone to high strike outs/high home runs with league average or better OPS+/wRC+ type production often have boom or bust results in games. Last year, it feels like the Twins were (totally random numbers following) 0-1-2-1-3-0-2-13-1-3-5-0-3-2-11 for runs scored out of the gate. The result was 4 runs per game average, but only 3 games where they actually scored 4+ runs and gave themselves a good chance to win. The elite rotation results we had got us a lot of wins. In regard to Varland's start, it wasn't great. 4 innings 6 hits, 2 walks. That's a 2.00 WHIP, 6.87 FIP and 4.39 xFIP, though he generated quite a bit of poor contact, he was hit hard frequently enough the BABIP wasn't crazy high.
  23. bean5302
    5 game road trip. I believe you're 100% correct. The Twins will not finish with 2-1/2 wins.
  24. bean5302
    Hopefully, Paddack's arm holds together with the extra force the Twins are asking of the pitch. That's both from a Twins and Paddack perspective. It's not fun watching guys get hurt and have their careers slip away. I wasn't a fan of the Paddack trade years ago (because of Rooker) and my much lower expectations of Paddack than what other seemed to have, but I'd like to see him prove me wrong and find sustained success!
  25. bean5302
    Based on the way he was hitting the ball in Spring Training and throwing in January, I was pretty confident he was 100% and a good choice for the 26 man out of the gate. Have I mentioned I really don't like the Carlos Santana signing anywhere? Probably not...
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