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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Bannon was acquired for cash and he's not on the 40 man. Diego Castillo was called up, but maybe the Twins suspect Castillo will be claimed if they DFA him, but they're still planning on DFA'ing him and want a backup on the roster because they expect him to be claimed if they do. If the Twins move Eeles down to A+ ball from AAA to make the A+ team better, that'd enrage MLBPA.
  2. bean5302
    For those folks wondering what the heck xERA is, it's based on xwOBA. Pablo Lopez never seems to perform up to his sparkly expected metrics. Some pitchers outperform expectations consistently (Verlander) and some underperform (Lopez).
  3. bean5302
    Speaking of Eeles, he's looking good at AAA, too. .231/.444/.385 .154 ISO OPS .829 16.7% BB, 13.9% K rate wRC+ 134 in just 36 PA. What a fun story so far. I wonder how well Eeles will have to play to earn a call to the big show? I'm guessing the Twins are feeling no pressure to make the move now that Eeles is at a level appropriate for his age. Maybe a September call up?
  4. bean5302
    Crochet probably isn't going anywhere. The Twins will need to target guys with less team control or a higher AAV cost like Blake Snell, Zac Gallen or Sonny Gray. So what would say, Blake Snell cost? We'll assume he pitches well in his next two starts vs. the Dodgers in L.A. and Rockies in S.F., but SF is still willing to move him because they're still 9 games back of the division and 3 games back from the Wild Card (under .500). Snell's probably a rental, and a cheap one at that. His 2024 salary is only $15MM, meaning he's only going to cost the acquiring team $5MM, though if he has a bad 2nd half or gets hurt, his $30MM player option is scary, but it doesn't come with a single lump sum hit as $15MM is deferred until 2027. It's hard to gauge the cost of Snell, but a 6-10 and a 11-15 type should get it done. Not sure what SF would target as their primary interest.
  5. bean5302
    I'm not in agreement with this article. Carlos Santana's competition was not really Rhys Hoskins, it was Jose Miranda. The Twins picked Santana and $5MM less to work with. Meanwhile, Jose Miranda has far outpaced Santana's production. It's a net loss even though Santana's been good after a horrible start to the season. Hoskins started the season hot and has been cold since if I remember right. I'm skeptical Santana's hot production will continue, btw. Santana's xwOBA is right in line with his actual production, but by virtually every advanced contact metric, he's average, and he's lost his excellent walk rates. Expecting the above average production to continue seems optimistic. Margot can't play center field and is barely serviceable in the corners at this point. Plus his bat's been awful. He wasn't the right target as -0.2 WAR isn't a good choice, even at only $4MM net. The good news here is the trade doesn't have to be viewed in a vacuum as Doncon has caught (and probably passed) Noah Miller and his exceptional defense. Michael A. Taylor +0.3 WAR and and Kevin Kiermaier +0.1 WAR are still excellent CF defenders, and that's what the Twins needed. The Twins needed a multi-year, team controlled center fielder to back up Buxton. Their internal option was Austin Martin, and he's been better than Margot. The external free agent option was Cody Bellinger, but that seemed awfully far-fetched. I proposed trading for Jarren Duran (preferably) or Wilyer Abreu (consolation prize) in last year's offseason simulator.
  6. bean5302
    The Twins desperately need an ace. They don't have one, and if they want to advance in the playoffs, they likely need one. Solid starters get you to the postseason, and swept right back out of it. Last year is the very first time the Twins entered the playoffs in the last decade with a strong 1-2 in Gray and Lopez. Right now, I don't feel comfortable going up against opponents top 3 starters with our guys.
  7. bean5302
    No MLB franchise trades for Festa before Woods Richardson. Honestly, I was pretty surprised BA still had Festa listed as top 100 despite the obvious issues he put on display. The Twins should capitalize on any team interested in Festa as a centerpiece for a major trade.
  8. bean5302
    Matt Wallner was about average defensively last year in the corners, and he has the skills to be well above average with some consistent playing time in a single position. Wallner gets a bad jump from slow reads on contact. No guarantee it'll ever improve as Brent Rooker hardly panned out well despite MLB average speed and a pretty strong arm. 2023 OF - 487.2 Innings UZR/150 = -0.4 DRS/yr = +2 OAA = -4 Rtot/yr = +2
  9. bean5302
    ...actually, I called for it a couple weeks ago over Festa, haha.
  10. bean5302
    Hell yeah!!! Can't wait to see him torch AAA hitters. Get him a couple starts to prove he's got the stuff and get him in the rotation to replace Paddack where he will undoubtedly continue to strike out lots of people walk nobody and allow nobody to hit fly balls out of the infield. Yes. That's what I'm going to go with. I like that future.
  11. bean5302
    I mean, he's produced 0 WAR this year so it seems likely the Jays just want him off the books if they can swing it. Open it up to everybody. One free Kevin Kiermaier, slightly used, comes with $4MM salary remaining.
  12. bean5302
    I've noticed there is a lot Wallner hate on Twins Daily. Not sure if it's just a popularity thing or what? His K rate last year was right in line with other players like Julien, Larnach, Buxton, Taylor, and Jeffers. I expect Wallner to continue to have a steady K rate in the low 30s, though it may improve a bit over time.
  13. bean5302
    On the pitching side of things. Happily Surprised Joe Ryan - 3.53 ERA, 3.44 FIP SWR - 3.51 ERA, 3.69 FIP Jorge Alcala - 1.56 ERA, 2.82 FIP Cole Sands - 3.52 ERA, 2.84 FIP Griffin Jax - 1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP About what I expected Josh Staumont - 2.83 ERA, 4.24 FIP Steven Okert - 3.86 ERA, 4.02 FIP Louie Varland - 6.48 ERA, 4.32 FIP David Festa - 7.06 ERA, 4.38 FIP Jay Jackson - 7.52 ERA, 5.44 FIP Bailey Ober - 4.14 ERA, 3.93 FIP Chris Paddack - 4.99 ERA, 4.18 FIP Jhoan Duran - 2.93, 4.24 FIP Big disappointments Pablo Lopez - 5.11 ERA, 3.83 FIP Brock Stewart - 0.68 ERA, 2.94 FIP Kody Funderburk - 5.61 ERA, 4.65 FIP Caleb Thielbar - 5.64 ERA, 4.61 FIP The biggest positive is Simeon Woods Richardson. He's been huge and totally unexpected. I'd written him off after another year of consistently poor performance in the minors. He's sustained his success, and there is reason to expect he can continue being effective enough in the rotation at this point. I think he's outperforming expectations at the moment, but it couldn't have come at a better time. First half Joe Ryan showed up again, and I'm happy to see it. I hope his last 2 starts isn't the beginnings of the appearance of second half Joe Ryan. In the bullpen, it has to be Jax. He's been truly elite, and it's made up for hiccups from Jhoan Duran this year. Biggest disappointments? Pablo Lopez. While his FIP is right about where I'd expect, the ERA is not. He's put the Twins in a hole time and again this year for a guy who is about to be making $20MM a year. It's been tough to watch especially with the departure of Gray. In the bullpen, Kody Funderburk. I was expecting him to be very good this year as I didn't expect Thielbar to be a long term asset, but reevaluating Funderburk as a lefty option has to happen at this point. Bummer.
  14. bean5302
    Happily Surprised Carlos Correa - Expected wRC+ 130ish 4 WAR pace Willi Castro - Expected wRC+ 105ish 2.5 WAR pace Jose Miranda - Expected wRC+ 120ish 2.5 WAR pace Carlos Santana - Expected wRC+ 95ish 1 WAR pace About what I expected Trevor Larnach - Expected wRC+ 100ish 1.5 WAR pace Ryan Jeffers - Expected wRC+ 105ish 3 WAR pace. Brooks Lee - Expected wRC+ 100ish 1.5 WAR pace. Austin Martin - Expected wRC+ 95ish 1 WAR pace. Manuel Margot - Expected wRC+ 90ish 1 WAR pace. Alex Kirilloff - Expected wRC+ 100ish 0 WAR pace. Big disappointments Royce Lewis - Expected wRC+ 160ish, 6 WAR pace. Kyle Farmer - Expected wRC+ 100ish, 2 WAR pace. Matt Wallner - Expected wRC+ 150ish, 4 WAR pace. Edouard Julien - Expected wRC+ 110ish, 3 WAR pace. Max Kepler - Expected wRC+ 120ish, 3 WAR pace. Christian Vazquez - Expected wRC+ 80ish, 2 WAR pace. My confidence production levels stay the same varies based on the player. The biggest boost has been Jose Miranda. The production won't continue at wRC+ 150, but it might settle in at 130, and that's absolutely huge. Having a high contact guy to replace Luis Arraez and make the game more interesting is really nice. The biggest disappointment has been Royce Lewis and the gut punch of his opening day injury derailing my expectations he'll likely ever be healthy.
  15. bean5302
    Wallner has produced the following since his return. .364 AVG functional, at least .462 OBP seems pretty okay .727 SLG adequate 1.189 OPS I mean, I'll take it even if I'd like to see a lot more. He'd be on pace for 93 RBI in a 162 game season. Also, why do you care about K ratio? That's a pretty modern stat.
  16. bean5302
    Alex Kirilloff has negative trade value. Can we compromise at no trade value. Below league average bat DH who is constantly hurt. A career 0.1 WAR in 900 plate appearances making $1.4MM.
  17. bean5302
    I expect the Guardians to have some serious regression, but they've carried a lot of luck their way until pretty late into the season already. Regression doesn't generally all happen at once so there's probably not enough time left for the Guardians to drop to 3rd in the AL Central, but it's where they should be at this point.
  18. bean5302
    Oh man, that feels like the perfect opportunity for a satire article.
  19. bean5302
    I think Correa is probably day to day and waiting to see how his heel responds to a week of rest. Last year, 2 weeks off for a much more serious case was enough to make a dramatic difference for him. Diego Castillo is a26 and he's posted solid numbers in AAA. Given the fact he's about to run out of options, giving him a look is a good idea. He's only had one significant opportunity to show his stuff at the top level with Pittsburgh in 2022 at age 24 where he struggled quite a bit. There's been a marked improvement in his BB rate and his K rate at AAA since then so he might be serviceable as a utility guy and Farmer won't be back next year.
  20. bean5302
    So it has to do with results rather than payroll, then? But it also doesn't have to do with results because attendance was poor in 2021 after the restrictions started coming off and there are plenty of teams in MLB who have better attendance but worse results. Saying it's payroll isn't true because there are low payroll teams who draw much better than the Twins have as of late. Saying it's TV isn't true because there are other teams affected by the TV deal. In good season ticket years, and season ticketholders are the absolute backbone of almost any team's attendance, and the Twins didn't announce the payroll cut before the end of the playoffs last year. The TV debacle didn't start until into the start of the season at which point season ticket sales are almost dead. The Twins are poor at marketing. Pure and simple.
  21. bean5302
    So why was attendance bad 2022-2023 when the Twins were spending $150MM? Surely, since the Twins expanded payrolls all the fans should have lined up!
  22. bean5302
    The Twins would have to add $75MM of AAV to get to that $25MM of cost you've quoted. I agree. The Twins are absolutely not going to add $75MM of AAV payroll at the deadline.
  23. bean5302
    This is all clearly my fault. I've been buried in a house project to the point I've barely been able to even look at a box score. I check back in yesterday and the whole team is injured. Either that, or it goes to @RandBalls Stu for that injury deity's with their eyes on the Twins article. Hopefully, guys bounce back quickly!
  24. bean5302
    Oh, on the topic, no I don't think the attendance will impact the aggressiveness of the Twins at the deadline in any way. The Pohlad's have shown a willingness to try the spend money to make money approach recently, and if Falvey has a need, there will be support to get it done. The Twins are $25MM lower in payroll right now than they were last year. That's plenty of room for 1/3 of the season of salary.
  25. bean5302
    Yes. It's led to an expansion of season ticket holder options. For instance, the 40 game, Flex 40 and 80 plans are allowed to choose Club Level which was not the case before. Season ticket openings are everywhere in the stadium, and I've purchased them as late as a couple days before the start of the season with options in pretty much every single section.
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