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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The "switch hitters shouldn't be platooned" line of thinking Baldelli was talking about earlier this year seems like a poor take to me. Santana can't hit RHP at the MLB average level, and he's not providing any positive positional value as a 1B. I mean, I'm sure Julien could technically stand in the right handed batters box to qualify as a "switch hitter" but like Aaron Hicks, it doesn't mean it's going to produce good results from both sides, lol. Brooks Lee's splits were -.257 OPS in 109 plate appearances while hitting as a RHB vs. LHB in 2023. As you noted, he hit lefties well in 2022 with +.117 OPS, but in a tiny 24 plate appearances. Also, the vast majority of Lee's plate appearances in 2022 came in low minors so I'm not sure I'd want to rely on them as much as looking at AA/AAA results like I did with Wallner. The takeaway from Lee not making the team is probably this. He's going to get plate appearances, he's going to get the opportunity to prove himself, and the Twins are incredibly deep on valuable MLB caliber infielders so the upside Brooks Lee could bring over the guys we already have is probably very limited. We'll get our stats to review as the season goes on :)
  2. bean5302
    Yep. super SSS, especially one that comes with sporadic plate appearances should be taken with a grain of salt. No idea whether or not Wallner will hit lefties well enough to avoid the platoon, but Wallner's splits in the minors look dramatically better than Julien or Kirilloff so I think it's worth seeing what they have for at least a few months. Benching a starter 30 games a year for left handed starters seems like a lot of value to potentially give up.
  3. bean5302
    https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/2025/ Rather than guessing or putting an insane amount of memory to work, you can use Spotrac. I've found myself relying on the site more and more for data because it's so handy. From predicting free agent MV's to tracking contracts and seeing some of the stuff not always considered (like IL payroll). 2025 = $117MM including all options of which I expect $20MM will be declined. 26 Man Active Roster C - $5MM 1B - $2MM 2B - Pre-Arb SS - Included 3B - $6MM LF - Pre-Arb CF - Included RF - Pre-Arb DH - Pre-Arb UI - Pre-Arb UO - Pre-Arb BC - Included PH - Pre-Arb SP1 - Included SP2 - Included SP3 - Arb1 $4MM SP4 - Arb1 $3MM SP5 - Pre-Arb RP1 - Arb1 $3MM RP2 - Arb1 $3MM RP3 - Arb1 $3MM RP4 - Included RP5 - Pre-Arb RP6 - Pre-Arb RP7 - Pre-Arb RP8 - Pre-Arb Average $1MM for each pre-arb person in case the Twins retain an arb eligible player at a low salary (like Trevor Larnach or Justin Topa, etc). That's about $138MM, assuming the Twins don't move a significant contract or two to clear some space, and I expect they will move Vazquez if possible. Puts them at $128MM, with room for a $25MM addition as payrolls and revenues continue to expand. Correa's contract starts shrinking quite a bit starting in 2026.
  4. bean5302
    Toronto's biggest problem, as previously mentioned, is playing in the toughest division in baseball. Perennial juggernauts like the Yankees and Red Sox, plus the Rays. All three of those teams are usually very good. Now the Orioles are showing up to the fight as well. Toronto is a good team. They're still in the thick of the playoff odds this year.
  5. bean5302
    The proper way to refer to Canada is USA, Jr. or Junior for short. That's what you Canadians like best, right? Just trying to be respectful :D
  6. bean5302
    Aaron Judge last year in the majors 8/25-9/3 41 PA .139/.244/.389 wRC+ 73 Clearly that hack can't be batting at the MLB level.
  7. bean5302
    Matt Wallner has hit LHP well when given the opportunity in the minors. Using much larger sample sizes including his MLB and MiLB stats. 2023 All Levels vs. RHP 430 PA = .283/.407/.514 OPS .921 vs. LHP 129 PA = .239/.326/.522 OPS .848 2022 All Levels vs. RHP 447 PA = .281/.414/.525 OPS .939 vs. LHP 185 PA = .257/.378/.533 OPS .911
  8. bean5302
    Except Matt Wallner has never started the year with the Twins. The comment appears designed to lead people to believe Matt Wallner is a slow starter, a guy who needs extra plate appearances before his timing gets ironed out and his bat comes around to explain the poor Spring Training. That has not been the case. Wallner has generally raked out of the gate. Matt Wallner, first 10 games. 2021 = .289/.378/.553 OPS .930, 11.1% BB, 44.4% K, wRC+ 147 (A+) 2022 = .083/.205/.167 OPS .371, 13.6% BB, 43.2% K, wRC+ -9 (AA) 2023 = .214/.333/.464 OPS .798, 9.1% BB, 39.4% K, wRC+ ? (AAA/MLB) Matt Wallner, first 20 games. 2021 = .338/.398/.635 OPS 1.033, 7.2% BB, 36.1% K, wRC+ 173 (A+) 2022 = .243/.353/.543 OPS .896, 15.3% BB, 38.8% K, wRC+ 117 (AA) 2023 = .250/.432/.482 OPS .915, 20.2% BB, 32.4% K, wRC+ ? (AAA/MLB/AAA) As far as I'm concerned Wallner is just making some adjustments or changing his approach or it's just SSS luck this Spring.
  9. bean5302
    This is not true. Wallner has raked right out of the gate 2 of the past 3 seasons. I think I commented on this earlier on a different thread. Not sure if your comment came after or before that.
  10. bean5302
    I want Brooks Lee to prove he can hit at the AAA level, and especially hit LHP before calling him up. The Twins saying nice things about him is good, but they're not going to throw a top prospect under the bus. Lee isn't on the 40 man, and he won't be rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season, and the Twins don't really have a good every day position for Lee to fill at the moment. The Twins appear committed to Julien at 2B for now, Correa at SS and Lewis at 3B. Lee's lack of a good speed means he's probably a poor fit for an outfield position, and his history of being very weak from the right side of the plate means he's potentially a LHH platoon candidate like Julien, Wallner, and Kirilloff are already treated. I'd rather Lee get experience and make adjustments at AAA rather than rushing him to MLB and endlessly tinkering with him in the big show like they did with Byron Buxton.
  11. bean5302
    This is a pretty good link if people are interested in the illegal bookmaker element. https://sportshandle.com/ohtani-bombhell-shifts-investigation-to-bowyer/ From everything I can tell right now, MLB, the Dodgers, Mizuhara, Ohtani and Bowyer's public positions currently amount to: No MLB betting No Ohtani involvement Embezzlement of Ohtani's money by Mizuhara Wire fraud by Mizuhara Illegal book making if bets were placed by Mizuhara from prohibited states. MLB and L.A. probably aren't going to have a lot of power to influence the case since it's being handled by the feds.
  12. bean5302
    I don't think that's going to happen, but I suppose Lewis could be expensive by 2026 as he's a super two with a lot of star potential. Vazquez, Farmer, and Kepler all clear nearly $30MM AAV off the books before then. The extra arbitration costs are unlikely to exceed that, IMHO.
  13. bean5302
    Yeah, I'm not super enthusiastic about skip-starts to limit innings. It feels like many starting pitchers benefit enormously from routine and when clubs start messing with that rest/recovery routine, you see injuries and ineffectiveness crop up. I don't have stats to back that up, it's just a sense I've gotten over the years. It's not like Paddack is a 21yr old prospect. He's a 28 year old veteran who pitched last year and had a normal offseason. His surgery is 2 years ago. Either his arm will hold or it won't. At least that's my opinion.
  14. bean5302
    As I read through this seemingly very emotionally charged topic, I realized... somebody was WRONG on the internet, and it MUST be corrected!
  15. bean5302
    Why wasn't a similar value contract going to happen? It's $10MM this year, which is less than what Polanco was making. The Twins have only $80MM guaranteed on the books in 2025.
  16. bean5302
    Not much of a difference between the two in defense or base running, TBH, but if you looked at the raw numbers and accepted them, you'd probably know that. Castro was excellent last year with Baldelli finally green lighting steals, but Castro had never stolen more than 9 before last year. Gordon stole 6 bases in 2022 and 10 bases in 2021 when the Twins were about the most conservative in MLB. It's really tough to say how it would have looked with the new rules for Gordon, but there's no denying Castro has a speed advantage over Gordon in a foot race. Defensively, despite all the hate Gordon got, he was pretty neutral defensively at all positions he played over the past couple years.
  17. bean5302
    If I gambled, I'd take the under on Buxton at 125 games all day.
  18. bean5302
    Meh. The bullpen is still a major strength for the Twins. Funderburk is probably substantially better than Thielbar at this point. Stewart and Jax make the loss of Duran much less severe with Alcala likely filling the 2nd open spot as a lower leverage middle reliever.
  19. bean5302
    It's a free site, but you probably have cookies which prevents you from viewing stuff. I provided you with the data from a respected source as you requested. What you decide to do with the data is up to you.
  20. bean5302
    If Ohtani wasn't involved, or if Ohtani was involved while bets were placed from California, there will be criminal charges. 1) Sports gambling outside baseball is not against MLB rules. If Ohtani lost $4.5MM betting on other sports, it's a non-issue from a MLB rules perspective. 2) Online sports gambling is ILLEGAL in California so bets cannot be placed while the device used to place the bet is in the state. Whomever placed the bets is in trouble if they were placed while standing in California. 3) Commenting on what is a criminal investigation is verboten. Any and all attorney's are going to advise their clients not to say a word more than they absolutely have to for a whole host of reasons. 4) What is being alleged is that Ippei Mizuhara embezzled $4.5MM from Ohtani, using Ohtani's money to pay off gambling debts, and then Mizuhara attempted to cover for the payment coming from Ohtani's accounts by saying that Ohtani authorized the wire transfers. Ohtani is extremely likely to have granted people power of attorney to handle his financials. I don't know about Mizuhara's expertise in the financial world, but he is obvious close to Ohtani and I could see Mizuhara having access to some of Ohtani's financial assets. There is no reason Ohtani would have assumed $4.5MM in debt for his interpreter. The only way Ohtani is in trouble is if he placed online sports bets while he was in standing in California. While I truly believe the Dodgers and Yankees get whatever they want, whenever they want from MLB, that is probably not the case for law enforcement when we're talking about millions and millions of dollars of illegal betting with a name as high a profile as Ohtani's.
  21. bean5302
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/829590/minnesota-twins-operating-income/#:~:text=The Minnesota Twins reported an,dollars in the previous year. 2020 = -$49MM 2021 = $10MM 2022 = -$27MM at $151MM total payroll, avg. ticket $38.94 and 22.2k/game for total gate revenue $70MM 2023 = you'll have to extrapolate, the estimate is not published yet at $156MM total payroll. avg. ticket $40.61 and 24.3k per game for total gate revenue $80MM. Be generous and figure an extra $5MM in revenue from concessions/merch sales. So -27 + 15 - 5 = -$17MM before the playoff shares or changes to revenue sharing. Based on that, the Twins probably still lost a little in 2023.
  22. bean5302
    Sonny Gray had hamstring tightness. It's not really even a strain. He's pitching tomorrow and there's optimism he'll pitch in the Cardinals opening series. Worst case scenario looks to be him missing a single start. Considering Gray's contract with the Cardinals pays him only $10MM this year, the fact the Twins didn't bring him back is reprehensible.
  23. bean5302
    The owners have fielded a team that's lost money 3 of the past 4 years. Their payroll was over $150MM last year. If the Twins spent $300MM, there'd be complaints they didn't spend $310MM.
  24. bean5302
    Balazovic's spin rates and movement on his pitches don't play at the MLB level. The numbers from Statcast are very pessimistic on him being a legitimate MLB caliber arm of any type. Larnach was drafted after a sudden home run surge at Oregon in his Junior year. He never showed that kind of home run result at any level before or since. He's got a line drive style swing which is more Joe Mauer than Joey Gallo so to expect him to generate OPS through home runs isn't reasonable at this point. Unfortunately, Larnach struggles to recognize almost all MLB pitches other than the 4 seam fastball or a curveball which results in his Joey Gallo-like contact problems. He's decent depth or probably a good enough emergency starter. Miranda is the only one of the three who might be every day starter material. The Twins are clearly interested in getting a last look at Kirilloff at the plate against MLB right handed pitching so Miranda starts the year in the minors.
  25. bean5302
    Larnach (34.0%) struck out more than Wallner (31.5%) last year.
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