Jump to content
Our top free agent ranking is up to 75 names; click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,580

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    36

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Personally, I'd trade Pablo Lopez, Chris Paddack this offseason and use the farm to acquire cost controlled upper rotation arms if they're so hard up for cash. If the Twins want to be like the "Rays" or "Guardians" this is how they operate. Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris really need to work out.
  2. bean5302
    Paxton to the Red Sox. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/dodgers-trade-james-paxton-red-sox.html
  3. bean5302
    Yes. Blake Snell is the guy. His $15MM salary this year is the only thing it's going to cost the Twins. While there is the $30MM opt in, it's just a formality, the same as the 2yrs/$70MM for Carlos Correa in 2022. Snell will 100% opt out unless he's catastrophically bad or he's going to lose the entire 2024 campaign to injury. The risk is partially what will make Snell affordable. Additionally, if Snell were to "opt in" it's not a big deal. His 2025 salary 50% deferred meaning the acquiring club is only on the hook for $15MM in 2025, deferring $15MM 2 additional years to 2027. That gives any acquiring team plenty of time to adjust their roster if they have payroll capacity issues like the Twins. Blake Snell received a 6yr $150MM offer from the Yankees last offseason. He'll receive at least a 5yr $100MM offer this year if he pitches well. He'll be 32 next year which will be at the limits of his long term contract potential, and he's got $17MM of signing bonus coming to him for 2025 regardless of the contract he takes so he can afford to use that as a hedge fund to prop himself up if he doesn't get the perfect contract he wants. Snell's opt out is just as minimally risky as it can be.
  4. bean5302
    Amazon.com Comcast.com Microsoft.com Apple.com Google.com Walmart.com Tesla.com There's tons of opportunities to help the destitute billionaires.
  5. bean5302
    I'd actually donate to this, just for the ability to hold it over the Pohlad's heads next time I see Jim headed through Club Level up to the suites.
  6. bean5302
    Some players I think are more likely to be traded. Luke Keaschall Eduoard Julien David Festa Louie Varland Gabriel Gonzalez Marco Raya Payton Eeles
  7. bean5302
    There is exactly one name on that entire list which has any trade value. Matt Wallner, and it would likely be a colossal mistake to trade him, IMHO. *Severino - He might have a little value. a24, AAA wRC+ 113 on the season. DFA guys *Farmer - DFA in waiting. He's cooked, at least in Minnesota. There are too many players on the Twins' roster to keep Farmer for a late inning defensive replacement or occasional slap single PH. Good guy, but being a good clubhouse guy fans can relate to doesn't keep you on the team on its own. Non-tender guys *Kirilloff, might as well DFA. Non-tender guys aren't bringing anything back. *Winder - Zero value here. I thought Winder was going to turn into a mid rotation arm, maybe even better a couple years ago. Huge fan of his, but I think his shoulder troubles finally caught up to his stuff. He hasn't been the same as he was so his projectability has dropped. He's almost certainly getting non-tendered this offseason as he's out of options after this year. *Henriquez - No value here. Never had any when the Rangers tossed him in with the Garver trade to clear space on their 40 man. Adequate bullpen depth, but no options beyond this year. *Canterino, if a team feels like they need more guys on their 60 man IL, Canterino's your guy. I think he's also a non-tender candidate, but maybe a little less-so because there's maybe some hope left still in regard to his talent and he's got options. Still, he hasn't pitched a single competitive inning since July 30th, 2022, and he only has 34.1 innings above the low minors at age 24.
  8. bean5302
    LOL, I wouldn't say that. Martin's arm is average for a LF, well below average for a RF, but not the absolute worst or anything. Averages 84.8mph with a max of 94.3mph. The max is right in line with good RF's. Martin doesn't seem to have the right instincts for when he needs to put extra on the throws.
  9. bean5302
    Carlos Santana's UZR is average. His RF/9 is low. His DRS is good and his OAA is great, but like this site is so apt to do, we find the very best metric, even if it's unreliable, for a player and treat it as gospel. Santana's been good this year. MIRANDA IS NOT A PLATOON CANDIDATE. At all. Like 0%, and it's super easy to discover that with 30sec of Fangraphs' split tool. I've seen Miranda be noted as a potential platoon guy over and over and over on this site. I guess it's out of absolute desperation to justify keeping Kirilloff on the roster or something? wRC+ Career vs. LHP = 108, vs. RHP = 120 2024 vs. LHP = 87, vs. RHP 177 2023 vs. LHP = 56, vs. RHP 57 2022 vs. LHP = 132, vs. RHP 110
  10. bean5302
    Kinda kills any potential "platoon" benefit from pulling your best players for a backup, doesn't it?
  11. bean5302
    Having a hard time with phrases like "likely playoff teams" and the concept of month of "May" and then it's hard to count, huh?
  12. bean5302
    Won the Cy Young in 2020. Career 3.79 ERA. Career 3.87 FIP. Both similar to Pablo Lopez. Was earning $38MM a year with the most desirable team in baseball. Dominating his leagues the last two years he's been pitching, including leagues where the top pitchers signed this past couple seasons have: 2.92 ERA - Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2.84 ERA - Shota Imanaga 2.98 ERA - Kodai Senga 2023 A few other pretty decent pitchers who came out of Japan in the last decade or so. Yu Darvish. Shohei Ohtani. Kenta Maeda. Stick to virtue signaling, like I said. It makes you a bad person on the inside (where it counts), but it looks good on paper to the rest of the world when you need to pretend you're a good person.
  13. bean5302
    Okay. Lets stretch this out: Reporter: Are you being told by ownership you cannot add any amount to the payroll at the deadline? Falvey: We're looking at a lot of different options, and if we find the right fit, we'll be open to making a move. I haven't been given a specific number by ownership, but I think we're happy with our roster and our payroll situation if we're not able to find the right fit. Reporter: Has ownership given you a ballpark number for you to add? Falvey: We evaluate every player and opportunity on its own merit. We don't come into a trade deadline or offseason with a set budget range in mind that we're trying to find players to get to a certain dollar amount. Like, oh, we have an extra 10 million we still need to spend to hit our target. It doesn't work that way for us. Reporter: Is there room to add an upper rotation arm like Max Scherzer or a Blake Snell at the deadline? Falvey: I can't comment on specific players under contract with other teams. As I talked about, we look at tons of different guys and try to evaluate whether or not a player is a fit with us here, can they help us win games here, and whether or not we the player's existing team is a willing trade partner for that player. Reporter: There's been a lot of speculation and reporting that ownership is set on the payroll and you'll have to subtract payroll to add even $5MM of remaining salary. Is that true? Falvey: It's going to depend on the specific player involved whether or not they give us a clear advantage. If we're in agreement with ownership about something being a great opportunity to acquire a player who might require us to expand the budget somewhat, I expect ownership would support the move, but again, we're happy with our team as-is, we think it's a competitive team we can take into the playoffs so the bar to add value to the guys we already have is going to be high. I hope you can see how this goes...
  14. bean5302
    Joe Pohlad talked about other organizations being competitive with lower payrolls, specifically mentioning the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays. Joe Pohlad "I think in today's game you can see there are a number of different ways to win," Pohlad said when discussing cutting payroll during the offseason. "You see that both with the Tampa Bay Rays and with the Baltimore Orioles having lower payrolls, turning out very successful products on the field but also investing in other areas of the business. That is something that we are doing. But without a question the television situation is having an impact on our business but beyond that we're just trying to right-size our business. That goes into it as well." Now, the issue with this is nobody else has been as successful as the Rays with their approach. The Rays have terrible, horrible, awful attendance and live purely off revenue sharing. That's their approach. The Twins ownership committed to long term, big contracts like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Pablo Lopez. Two of those with NTC. You cannot reverse course suddenly after committing to that previous philosophy unless you can push those contracts off the books. Tampa Bay typically runs payrolls in that $70-100MM range, and they trade all their players away with 1-2 years of control left. The Orioles ran payrolls up to $175MM by 2017 before a commitment to a 5 year tank for a rebuild strategy where they were the worst team in MLB. Apparently, the Pohlads missed this part. The Diamondbacks ran payrolls as high as $171MM this year as well, plus $142MM back in 2017. Up until 2022, the Kansas City Royals had even run a max payroll larger than the maximum of the Minnesota Twins, hitting $142MM in 2016. The Guardians pushed to $143MM in 2018 as well where the Twins' max at that point was $121MM (2017). Almost all small/mid market teams will expand payrolls when they have a chance at contending. The Twins... well, the Pohlads have essentially said they won't anymore, but the Twins are NOT a small market team. They're a poorly managed (from an operations standpoint) mid market team. They're on par with Seattle.
  15. bean5302
    If it takes 3 years for the MLB ready guys they acquired to play and none of the players acquired make an impact in the postseason results, not so sure. The NPV of that trade doesn't look great unless the Twins do something in the postseason soon, IMHO.
  16. bean5302
    Castillo DFAd
  17. bean5302
    It's $20MM, dude. I'd like to have a Jaguar F Pace in the garage. I have a Ford Focus. You have to live within your means and if ownership is dictating those means are $20-30MM lower, you make cuts you have to make, not that you like to make. Buxton has a NTC and the Twins don't have a legit CF replacement option. Correa has a NTC and the Twins don't have a legit replacement option (Lewis always hurt, Lee hasn't proven himself, Castro is nearing free agency and getting expensive)
  18. bean5302
    The first steps to Flaherty is looking at his results vs. expected and Stuff+, IMHO. It kind of cuts through a lot of the speculation on whether or not he's the same pitcher getting oddly different results. ERA 4.99 -> 3.13 xERA 5.06 -> 2.95 (relies on batted ball data) FIP 4.36 -> 3.15 xFIP 4.36 -> 2.47 (normalized FIP for average HR rate) SIERA ->4.53 -> 2.59 (relies on batted ball data) His fastball is still league average 98 vs. 96 His changeup is dramatically better 68 -> 94 His knuckle curve is significantly better 93 -> 103 Location+ is slightly better 99 -> 104, and it's all based on fastball location. His other pitches are rarely used. Location and results F-Strike% is up Sw-Strike% is up O-swing is up O-contact is down Flaherty's 4 seamer is moving a lot better this year with a little less vertical drop and finally a little horizontal movement, and the movement has come from active spin rate where Flaherty is getting his fastball to move in unison with the spin he's putting on it. From a Stuff+ standpoint, it doesn't grade any better. That said... The changeup is moving the same, but it grades way higher because it's being compared to the fastball and there's now more separation of the two pitches, and the same with the curve. The change to Flaherty's fastball has made both the curve and the changeup far more effective. In bold are red flags for me. There aren't that many of them, but locating pitches and first pitch strike rates feel like a good/bad Liriano to me. It's tough for me to get on board with a veteran player really changing that consistently.
  19. bean5302
    Reporter: Are you being told by ownership you cannot add any amount to the payroll at the deadline? Falvey: We're looking at a lot of different options, and if we find the right fit, we'll be open to making a move. I haven't been given a specific number by ownership, but I think we're happy with our roster and our payroll situation if we're not able to find the right fit. That's what a direct question/answer would look like. Dodge.
  20. bean5302
    Formed this opinion in April and just kept riding it, right? Here are the series results for the Twins when facing off against likely playoff teams. The Twins are 7-4 in series' against playoff caliber teams since the beginning of May. KCR - W MIL - T CLE - L LAD - L BAL - L May BOS - W SEA - W NYY - L CLE - L KCR - W June HOU - W NYY - L ARI - W SEA - W July HOU - W MIL - L PHI - TBD
  21. bean5302
    Pablo Lopez is the starter the Twins should trade away. The Twins can part with Walker Jenkins to bring in a stud multi-year cost controlled starter to replace Lopez's #2 status or better. Kirilloff shouldn't be traded because he has negative value. He'll be non-tendered. The Twins will also need to move Vazquez by trading prospect value. Paddack definitely needs to go. The Twins should be able to move him for a minimal return due to his low salary (relative). Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are going to be expensive, even as Arb 1. I'd figure $5MM for Ryan and $4MM for Ober.
  22. bean5302
    You should stick to virtue signaling and/or personal or political ideology arguments on Bauer. He was slightly better than Imanaga (2.76 vs. 2.80 ERA) despite Bauer shaking off 2 years of rust for the first couple games in that league. After that rough start, Bauer was lights out better than Imanaga, who has been dominant for the Cubs this year owning a near identical ERA in MLB as he owned with the Bay Stars. I'd be shocked if Bauer was signed by the Twins. It'd be a great move, though, if the ownership really is screwing the fans and the front office with a hard payroll cap. When you need to find ways to win and ownership is telling you to do it without normal resources, you get creative. Just like Moneyball with the A's bringing in Jeremy Giambi as a sort of talented problem child, accurate or not to reality. I feel like maybe the Twins would want to write in a few stipulations (note for Dave St. Peter and the Pohlad family, writing in some limitations like your ability to pull agreements say, if half the service provided winds up being unfulfilled like with Bally Sports North). If ownership has a problem with it, you throw them under the bus publicly. If everybody is suggesting Falvey should leave and all the other teams want him, it's the right move if done the right way.
  23. bean5302
    Lopez owns a 4.86 ERA right now. 9 Quality Starts in 20 games. Ryan has been terrible in the 2nd half of each year of his career. His last 5 games he owns a 5.34 ERA. 11 Quality Starts in 20 games. Simeon Woods Richardson. The xFIP and SIERA scare me a little. 6 QS in 17 games, though Rocco "quick hook" Baldelli has something to do with that. Woods Richardson is the kind of pitcher who could slot into a playoff rotation. Bailey Ober is not one of the guys you want in the top of the playoff order 1-3 guys, but he's not the worst #4 option. What the Twins are missing is the guy who is supposed to slot in at #1. Having 2 #4's and 2 #3s isn't how we get to 4 playoff rotation arms.
  24. bean5302
    Duran I was talking about it with fans at the game. Splitter, splitter, splitter, curve. Splitter, splitter, splitter, curve. Splitter, splitter, splitter, curve.
  25. bean5302
    Sorry I didn't make that clear enough. The fact a fielder who is very good at positioning gets dinged for it vs. a player who positions terribly, but makes up for some of it with athleticism gets rewarded is the greatest flaw in OAA. It's why I feel OAA is the worst metric to use on its own; it doesn't tell you what actually happened, and whether or not a fielder's play results in more real outs than average. It's probably also a big reason why OAA is the least reliable metric with the greatest swings from year to year.
×
×
  • Create New...