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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Agreed. Julien's approach feels about the same, and we're definitely dealing with a SSS given how infrequently Julien makes contact with pitches. His FB rate is double last year at the cost of a big drop off in line drive rate, but I think it's just SSS at only 41 batted balls in play. Personally, I don't think Julien is cut out to be an elite hitter based on his weaknesses, but he can be good.
  2. bean5302
    I don't think I saw anybody mention this, but Varland's 47% strike vs. 53% ball rate isn't going to win any games.
  3. bean5302
    This despite the fact Falvey was vocal that Kirilloff wasn't viewed as a potential outfielder at all?
  4. bean5302
    I don't think it's likely Rodriguez's contact skills will improve much without a big change to his swing. How much his contact rate drops as he gets promoted is debatable. Like Julien, Rodriguez takes a gazillion walks so it's just tough to say what that looks like at the MLB level. There aren't a lot of guys like him.
  5. bean5302
    Varland's "stuff" suggested it would be a stretch for him to be successful in the rotation. He's not been successful, and there's not much to support the idea he can turn it around. If Varland won't make the adjustments necessary because "he's not comfortable" with a pitch, all the more reason to pull the plug and get him back into the 'pen were he was good. The Twins need to hand the ball to Woods-Richardson and they need to look for a veteran depth signing now.
  6. bean5302
    Nick Gordon cost $900k this year. His line is .213/.255/.447 OPS .702, thanks in part to a rough .219 BABIP. His xwOBA suggests he's just about where he should be so probably not a lot of luck involved one way or the other. For $900k, a wRC+ of 89 is perfectly fine. Twins utility players are making $3.5-6.3MM this year. That's luxury spending. Utility guys are the LAST guys you spend money on. I despised the Carlos Santana signing, like truly deeply despised it because I felt Kirilloff/Miranda was a better option. Actually, I felt like Miranda as a full time starter vs. both left/right was a better answer and it would have saved another $4.5MM the Twins needed to put towards a starter or a legit DH. I have nothing against Santana at all, and it'd be great to see him start really hitting because the Twins certainly need the help. Hopefully something clicks with a few guys soon!
  7. bean5302
    It's pretty easy to predict their contributions, though. With a healthy Correa and Lewis on the roster, Farmer and Castro wouldn't have gotten much playing time to contribute in the first place. The Twins rid excess utility players just to bring more back in.
  8. bean5302
    I've done that analysis before and you're dead wrong even if it "feels" like that shouldn't be the case. No legs to stand on at all. Feel free to spend a few hours looking at mid/upper rotation pitchers, and how often they leave games at 5.0+ innings under 4.00 ERA in recent years. Over 50% is very solid. It's why I put Sonny Gray in the comparison because I knew he wasn't going to be a lot better. For a mid/upper rotation starter, $11MM (he made $15MM) is a ludicrously good deal, (let alone the $6MM he made in 2021).
  9. bean5302
    I suspect the ownership will purge the front office if the season goes poorly. After all, this is the final year for Falvey's contract and Pohlad hinted ownership's on the field expectations have been raised as of last year. If things turn around and the Twins advance in the playoffs, I suspect Falvey will get an extension.
  10. bean5302
    Looks like that potential bullpen option is 100% out for the Twins. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/twins-daniel-duarte-to-undergo-season-ending-elbow-surgery.html
  11. bean5302
    First, Berrios was not awful the following year. The Blue Jays won like 65% of the games Berrios started that season because Berrios had some clunkers, but overall pitched very solid in 2022 despite the negative perception. In 17 of his 32 starts and 172 innings pitched in 2022, Berrios went at least 5 innings and left the game with an ERA under 4.00. In 14 of those starts, he left the game with an ERA of 3.00 or lower. The replacement for Berrios, Sonny Gray, had 5.0+ innings and an ERA under 4.00 in 14 of his 24 starts and 119.2 innings. He had an ERA of 3.00 or under in 13 of his starts where he pitched 5.0+ innings. Berrios was not far off from Gray on any given start, Gray just had a couple fewer big clunkers mixed in. Second, there were other offers on the table for Berrios and other players the front office could have chosen from Toronto. The Twins were extremely unlikely to keep Berrios until the 2022 trade deadline if they didn't move him at the 2021 deadline. The team would have traded him at the end of the 2021 season to maximize their return, anyway. Falvey has acquired 0.1 fWAR for a young, 1.5 year controlled, inexpensive, durable, mid/upper rotation starter. That's a blunder, plain and simple. What matters is what the real return for the Twins' assets. If it makes you feel better, you can say both teams lost the trade so both GMs should be fired, but I bet money the Blue Jays make that trade over again today while the Twins would love to have it back.
  12. bean5302
    First run of the game was a comedy of poor fielding. Julien muffed the ball, then double-clutched it, then it was like Vazquez couldn't even see it as the throw sailed 6" wide of his glove. Then in the 3rd, Julien dropped a throw which would have caught the runner at 2B on a Tigers steal attempt that cost a run. Then, same inning, Vazquez literally drops the pitch trying to transition to a throw which led to another Tigers steal of 2B, followed by yet another single that scores a run. Buxton hard core pimps a fly ball he thinks is a home run which turns at least a 3B into a 2B, though, the fly probably should have been caught in the first place. What do we hear post game? Joe Ryan pity party as if the cluster of home runs he gave up in the last half of 2023 were all just bad luck and life just keeps shipping him lemons, though I appreciate Ryan handling the blown strike called a ball better than his manager, at least. Baldelli had a little meltdown about the bad call before possibly talking his way out of a fine. The Twins lost because they didn't hit and didn't field at an MLB caliber level.
  13. bean5302
    I've never subscribed to the theory of the frozen in time trade value. While Martin and Woods-Richardson were considered an pretty massive overpay by the Blue Jays at the time, all that matters is what actually happened. 1. Austin Martin immediately tanked in prospect value. 2021 - Trade deadline +42.6 2021 - Season end +30.8 2022 - Trade deadline +11.0 2023 - Trade deadline +3.7 Current +4.2 (less than Manuel Margot's 5.5) 2. Simeon Woods-Richardson immediately tanked in prospect value. 2021 - Trade deadline +22.3 2021 - Season end +9.6 2022 - Trade deadline +5.4 2023 - Trade deadline +2.1 Current +1.7 (less than Brent Headrick's 2.1) The Twins needed to get value for Berrios. Instead, they whiffed (so far). A non-rental, low cost, mid/front rotation arm is worth a fortune. Especially if it was the first legitimate playoff starter caliber arm the franchise had developed in a decade. I liked the trade right from the start, and it was considered so lopsided in favor of the Twins that Baseballtradevalues.com wouldn't even accept the proposal without the Twins adding $20MM in cash at the time. Regardless of what was supposed to happen according to Baseballtradevalues or analysts, the front office needs to be held accountable for what actually DID happen. The front office gets paid for on the field results, not the computer simulation, and the front office needs to be smarter than internet fans.
  14. bean5302
    Sands struggled a lot in peripherals and analysis of his "stuff" in previous years while pitching as a starter/long reliever. If he performs as a short reliever, it's a fair indication that's where his value will stay. That said, the Twins are pretty strong in the bullpen already so maybe? I think the biggest problem is Sands hasn't gone more than 3 innings in the last two years so "stretching him out" will take more than the entire 2024 campaign.
  15. bean5302
    Vazquez Vortex all day! hahaha
  16. bean5302
    Martin is hitting .242/.306/.333, .669 OPS, wRC+ 90, pretty much right in line with projection systems. There is little real value in a hitting line which would be a liability for a starter. A backup/utility type role is fine, but those roles don't provide much value. Woods-Richardson has a history of getting results for a few games before batters tee off on him because he's been unable to keep his velocity consistent. I think he'll find his way into the rotation sooner than later out of necessity. He's in his 7th year at this point. It's a long, long time to struggle with the things Woods-Richardson has struggled with before suddenly putting it together.
  17. bean5302
    The entire compensation system through arbitration is out of balance, and I think just about everybody understands that. From front offices to players to fans. What makes up for the imbalance during team control is the expectation good players are young and near their prime when they exit team control which grants them the opportunity to secure a lucrative, and often long term or at least multi-year deal which will set them up for life. Not to mention most players sign 6-7 figure signing bonuses out of the gate these days. Players still get the shaft while under team control to make up for the fact many players won't work out and to provide cash flow stability to the franchise operating with existing guaranteed contracts on the books. Again, Thielbar will never get the opportunity to get balance from the current CBA. Arguing it's his fault for not being good enough when he was younger is in poor taste, IMHO. I suspect you'd sing a different tune if your employer got to lock you into a job for half your career and pay you 20% of the market rate until you were 60 years old.
  18. bean5302
    What I was really meaning to say is Dave St. Peter should learn how to market or be replaced by somebody who does so people want to come to the games. The rest would figure itself out. After the abysmal 2011 campaign, 34.2k fans still went to the average Target Field game, and 30.5k fans after the continued horror of 2012, and 27.8k fans even after the trifecta of 2013. Attendance stayed at 27.4k in 2015 even after the team sucked in 2014 for the quadfecta of horrible seasons before. There's plenty of reasons for people to attend a Twins game at Target Field, and if it's marketed properly, the seats will be filled at a solid clip. It's not being marketed well, and people don't want to go and that is absolutely impacting the Twins' player budget.
  19. bean5302
    Yes. 100% I'd like the Twins to try it. Duran's value as a reliever is limited to about 1/3rd of that as a successful starter. I think they'd have to start him off as a 2 inning closer. Johan Santana was a successful reliever before he was the best starter in MLB.
  20. bean5302
    Yeah, so great they've given the Twins a good chance at winning their games 50% of the time so far (leaving the game with an ERA under 4.00)
  21. bean5302
    Hey, totally your prerogative. I think people should 100% spend their money on whatever makes them happy. If that's attending Twins games and the game day experience, great. If it's classic muscle cars, nice (they're expensive). If it's import cars with giant fart cans, your call (please, please drive someplace other than the parking garage near my house). If it's having a beer and watching the game at a Twins Daily event, sure. If that's a Twins Daily subscription used solely to avoid ads so you're not distracted while posting rage comments about spending, it's how some people will roll. Meanwhile, Falvey looks desperately for another $5MM has-been/never was, but who was good at hitting left handed pitching in the 6th inning in early evening games when it's a light rain and nobody is on base in 2021 so Baldelli's broken Excel macro spreadsheet can find a platoon for that...
  22. bean5302
    They're not. I'm not sure where you get the opinion Twins hitters are somehow different than they've historically been? Complaint, low average. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. Complaint, lots of strikeouts. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. Complaint, streaky/LOB. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. (naturally goes with the first two) The home runs haven't been showing up. That's the only difference, but things would look a lot like last year if you swapped Wallner/Margot with Gallo for the month of April. The Twins would suddenly be middle of the pack for HRs. All it takes is one Twins hitter on a hot streak to skew numbers.
  23. bean5302
    I actually don't have a clue what Levine actually does. A real "What would you say.... you do here???" Office Space, Tom Smykowski situation. Evidently, whatever Levine does, it's not particularly impressive as Boston didn't even want to talk to him for a second round of interviews.
  24. bean5302
    It's not a joke. Twins fans have been attending games at a similar rate to the early 2000s Metrodome fans in recent years = Not Good. In general, no fans = no revenue = no spending. That's business. Colorado Rockies attendance vs. Twins 2019 = 37.0k/game (71-91) vs. 28.4k/game (101-61)* 2020 = (26-34) vs. (36-24)* 2021 = 23.9k/game (74-87) vs. 16.4k/game (73-89) 2022 = 32.0k/game (68-94) vs. 22.2k/game (78-84) 2023 = 32.2k/game (59-103) vs. 24.3k/game (87-75)* 2024 = 26.6k/game (4-15) vs. 22.4k/game (6-11) *Playoffs Rockies fans support their team at a high level and allow for the (idiot) owner to spend more in payroll even though their team hasn't posted a winning record. In case you're wondering about this year's attendance, Coors Field can be awfully unpleasant in April (colder than Target Field for evening games). Twins fans have not supported the franchise well. I see arguments every day on this site about how the Twins should be spending more. The Twins have lost money on a cumulative basis after 2019 and 3 of the past 4 years despite pushing payrolls higher and higher and higher. Do you know why Rockies fans attend games at Coors Field? It's a great venue which caters towards adults and the overall gameday experience. Personally, I feel Dave St. Peter is at fault rather than fans who literally have no idea how to optimize their game day experience because Twins marketing is pathetic. In any case, I'm not sure what your requirement is? "If you build it, they will come" is about a stadium venue to watch the games. Target Field is built. It's a nice venue to watch baseball games. It's a nice venue to get out with the crowd.
  25. bean5302
    I think we could potentially see a coaching change, but if we do, it'll signal Falvey is feeling a lot of heat. I'm not particularly concerned about the hitters even though they're scuffling badly right now. I am concerned about Baldelli's lineup selection process and the roster construction. If the Twins miss the playoffs or get swept out again, I have no doubt there will be a new GM running the show by November.
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