bean5302

Baez is older (a31 now), has been bad at the plate two years in a row, and bad 3 of his last 4 seasons (2 of them horrible) at the plate. Plus, he hasn't had an injury to point to as a potential cause. There's, of course, a chance he bounces back, but it's tiny. Despite the decrease in his K rate, he's actually increased his O-Swing rate while decreasing his Z-Swing rate. It's led to fewer whiffs at the cost of more weak contact, and even his peak exit velocities have dropped off from prime by 3-4mph. Basically, he's not seeing pitches as well, he's not lifting balls quite as much, he's not hitting them as hard when he does barrel them, and he's got (always had) lousy plate discipline. The profile is not one you'd expect a real bounce back. It's looking more and more like 2021 was his one "bounce-back" season. I wonder how long it takes for a player to become complacent with poor performances? When do they stop really trying to get better and just resign themselves to collecting an enormous paycheck? Lots of reasons to write Baez off.

Julien's xwOBA was .345 last year. His actual wOBA was quite a bit higher at .366. xBA = .233 vs. actual .263 xSLG = .427 vs. actual .459 Adjusting for expected statistics = .233/.355/.427 = OPS .782 rather than his actual .839. Now, an OPS of .782 is plenty good, probably about an wRC+/OPS+ in the 110-115 area. Certainly good for a 2.5-3.0 WAR caliber 2B if Julien can play average defense. Expecting Julien is somehow going to play at his absolute ceiling year after year while also getting really lucky isn't reasonable. There may be more in the tank for Julien to get results which match the underlying metrics expectations going forward and push him up a bit to that 3.0-4.0 WAR area, and that'd be great, but Julien's approach has a razor's margin involved. Much like the razor's margin Brian Dozier had years ago when he went from stud to dud almost instantly.

We do, do we? Maeda's actually been highly durable regardless of this strange myth spun around him. 2016 = 32 GS (No IL trips) 2017 = 25 GS + 5 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 15 days missed) 2018 = 20 GS + 19 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 15 days missed) 2019 = 26 GS + 37 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 10 days missed) 2020 = 11 GS (No IL trips) 2021 = 21 GS (one 10 day IL -> changed to 60 day IL for UCL tear) 2022 = Missed season from TJ surgery 2023 = 20 GS + 1 relief appearance Lingering shoulder fatigue from build up after surgery. (one 15 day IL, 55 days missed) The only major injury he's ever during his 8 year MLB career led to Tommy John surgery and he's never been placed on an IL more than once in a year.

This is the big concern for me. Julien only does a lot of damage when pitches are right in the meat of the zone. It's awesome that he's got such great pitch identification and ability to predict movement, but his ceiling will probably always be capped by his swing.

I suppose Polanco isn't a terrible comp. Lee can't run like Polanco can, but Lee's fundamentals in fielding are better to make up for it. Polanco was a solid player when he wasn't hurt. Certainly not elite, but solid.

FGDC. Starting Rotation expected WAR 2024 Twins = 13.9 Guardians = 11.4 There's no doubt the Guardians have developed pitching in a dramatically superior to Falvey's front office, but the Twins have gone out and bought pitching with trades and dollars. Twins pitcher vs. Guardians pitcher head to head, top 6 4.1 vs. 3.3 - Lopez vs. Bieber 2.8 vs. 2.3 - Ryan vs. McKenzie 2.1 vs. 2.1 - Ober vs. Bibee 2.0 vs. 1.5 - Paddack vs. Allen 1.5 vs. 1.2 - Varland vs. Williams (IL) 0.9 vs. 0.6 - Desclafani (IL) vs. Carrasco From a projection standpoint, the Guardians don't have a single rotation slot advantage over the Twins. I wasn't impressed with Cleveland's pitching before last year, either. When you look at Cleveland's rotation: 1. Bieber a29 - Once elite Cy Young potential pitcher losing velocity and strikeouts with it. Could rebound this year, but unlikely to return to Cy Young form. 2. McKenzie a26 - Low 90s fastball, finally got his control in check at age 24, but lost most of last season due to injury. His K rate declined with adding control. Great 4 seamer, everything else pretty average to below average. Similar to Joe Ryan, except less control and less K's. 3. Biebee a25 - Great slider, good curve, and his other pitches played very well off them with results far ahead of his actual stuff. xFIP was 1.24 points higher than ERA. Once the scouting reports catch up, profiles as a mid/back end rotation arm IMHO. 4. Allen a25 - Very poor fastball. Lacks velocity, lacks horizonal movement. The changeup is basically a straight ball, and it'll be easy for MLB hitters to adapt. I don't think he'll fare well as a starter long term at the MLB level. 5. Williams a24 - He could be really good. Great velocity, great extension, good movement on his pitches, but he's struggled a bit on his control. If he's able to make some adjustments, he could be a front line starter. Currently on the IL with elbow soreness, though apparently it was just inflammation. 6. Carrasco a37 - He's an innings eater for Cleveland taking up slack for injuries throughout the year. He had a resurgent 2022, but he was absolutely crushed last year. He's at the very twilight of his solid MLB career losing velocity and movement.

It's been interesting to follow the front office and Baldelli over the years. I think the real takeaway from watching the organization as a whole is that they're all on the same page. It's pretty rare when a specific person (Baldelli, Falvey) presents an idea as "theirs." I couldn't care less about Spring Training W-L records. Spring training is about getting mechanics in order, getting some daily work in, to adapt play styles, pitches, swing conditions, etc. It's practice.

Yeah. It's been a real missed opportunity season. Barring catastrophic seasons... Gray = 3yrs $75MM ($10MM this year) Snell = 1yr $31MM ($17MM this year, $15MM deferred to 2027) Montgomery = 1yr $25MM ($25MM this year) I was hoping the Twins would find a way to shed more salary and grab a front line starter. It's worth noting Neither Snell nor Montgomery would have signed any earlier than they did, and they won't be ready for opening day.

That's exactly what heroes say and do.

I'm not bullish on the Guardians this year. I think their pitching staff is already fading. Bieber has lost his velocity over the past couple of years and he's no longer an ace IMHO. Bibee could be good this year. McKenzie & Allen looks like back end rotation. Carrasco is a cheap veteran Cleveland can hope will keep the wheels on the bus. I think the Guardians finish 4th in the division with the 4th best rotation and with 95+ losses.

Nick Burdi just made the Yankees' roster after impressing this spring. Guy's never pitched more than 8.2 innings in a season back to 2018... oofff.

Though he's a righty and not a lefty, Jax's move to the bullpen reminds me a lot of what happened with Glen Perkins. Perkins didn't have great velocity as a starter, but moving him to the pen really had his stuff play way up.

Their Pythagorean was 64 wins last year so they weren't truly as horrible as their record suggested. There's some luck factor in there.

Tons of work went into this and it's a fun article to read!

I think it's pretty far fetched to believe in Winder as a starter at this point. It seems the workload is way too hard on his shoulder given his propensity for shoulder issues and now stress fractures, and his stuff needs to get back to where it was a couple years ago for him to be a bullpen piece now. I think he's a long shot to keep his 40 man roster spot all year.

If there's a problem, the Twins can swing an unconventional early year trade. I'm not concerned right now.

It'll be between the Tigers and the Twins. The outcome determined by the starting rotations.

Jax and Jeffers have been on the 26 man for 3 and 4 years, respectively. They're a little outside sophomore slump range haha. Julien is the most probable candidate for a sophomore slump IMHO. His approach teeters on the razors edge of sustainable.

I think it's impossible to predict the Royals this year. They're going to be much better than last year, but they're still relying on a ton of unproven young prospects. If some of those guys take a big step forward, the Royals could end up at .500. I think they're somewhere in the 75-79 wins area.

I have decided Royce Lewis will be even better this year than he was last year. Full season. wRC+ 160, great defense at 3B. 6-7 WAR. MVP!!! LOL.

I don't think any of these guys is being overlooked.

Berrios with Toronto 2021 - 5-4, 12 GS, 9 QS, 70.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, Toronto 6-6 (.500) in Berrios starts, signed extension 2022 - 12-7, 32 GS, 17 QS, 172.0 IP, 5.23 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, Toronto 23-9 (.719) in Berrios starts 2023 - 11-12, 32 GS, 15 QS, 189.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, Toronto 17-15 (.531) in Berrios starts While Berrios' stats looked really bad in 2022, Toronto won the games where he started on the mound over 70% of the time, and despite the nasty ERA, Berrios was more inconsistent than bad as he put up more than 1/2 his starts as quality starts (that's not at all common these days). Berrios has lived up to a mid/upper rotation arm for Toronto for the most part, but that wouldn't have made him worth the huge contract on his own. The fact he's been able to make every start and go out there to pitch 6 innings has been worth the extra cost on the contract, I think. Berrios was just handed the opening day starter job for the Blue Jays this year. I'd say Toronto is probably more than happy with the contract so far.

Does Gray HAVE to have a $10MM contract this year? Or could the Twins have done $16MM/$25MM/$30MM or another variant not quite so backloaded? I didn't intend on analyzing the contracts of all 30 MLB teams and their playoff fate based on percentage of salary over say the past decade to get a good sample size. Royce Lewis Super 2 Arb 1. He wins the MVP this year.... obviously. LOL Honestly, it's part love of Lewis and part just being accepting of a little potential cushion.

I don't understand the move unless the Twins are going to cut bait on a different MLB contract bullpen veteran. That said, Chavez was good last year. 1.56 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 3.40 xFIP with Atlanta. His K/BB rates and ground ball rates were very good in Spring Training. 33.3% HR/FB rate and a .458 BABIP led to the gaudy ERA. I haven't watched his game to know whether it was luck (probably) or just ineffective pitches.

The Twins obviously want to see Brooks Lee play at SS. He's not been scouted as a good runner, and sources like Fangraphs feel he's taken a step back in his range already. The question is whether or not Brooks Lee could possibly be an MLB-caliber SS as more than an emergency fill in. I think the Twins are pretty confident Lee's current range limits would be able to handle 3B, and his strong arm makes up for his expected lack of range at 2B. If Correa were to go down, I expect Lewis, Farmer or Castro would be starting at SS with Austin Martin being called up. It'll take two IL-60 injuries before Brooks Lee gets a potential opportunity, IMHO. Even then, it's not guaranteed if the Twins are having Lee work on something at AAA because there's also Severino on the 40 man and Prato who the Twins aren't nearly as invested in.