bean5302

The Twins were over .500 to begin Thursday. Two days later, the sky was falling... I've noted this in another thread, but great teams win 60% of their games (97 wins). terrible teams win 40% of their games (97 losses). Baldelli has been the most outspoken on the subject of strikeouts doing a 180* in the summer of last year. In early summer, he talked about the strikeouts being a problem. By late in the season, strikeouts were irrelevant. It doesn't take an expert to read between the lines and figure out Falvey doesn't feel like strikeouts matter. Now, strikeouts are not worse than any other kind of out. They're better than medium grounders with runners on, for instance. A swinging strike out provides a little extra for a runner trying to steal, the catcher can miss the ball and a strikeout can wind up with a guy on first, etc. What I don't think has been researched is how a bunch of strikeout prone hitters in the same line up cause a chain reaction which reduces overall offensive value. Pythagorean is not a good metric. It's nice compared to straight wins/losses, but it doesn't tell you the trend. 12-0-2-8-3-1-1-9-3-2 = 43 runs. Probable record? 4-6 <--Twins 4-5-5-3-6-2-1-4-5-5 = 40 runs. Probable record? 5-5 <-- Lower K/HR teams That's what I think

Wallner would be better if balls weren't called strikes. He'll be fine. Not sure why people are all bent out of shape about it. Jeffers, Castro, Julien, Santana, Farmer, Margot, Vazquez, and Martin are all worse OPS wise to start this year.

Luzardo is definitely a step above Berrios in terms of results. Berrios was an awesome workhorse (still is), but he's a #3 guy (bordering #2). Luzardo's a potential ace and his trade value on Baseballtradevalues reflects that to an extent, but even that value is probably much lower than what a team would pay. I'd say on the open market, Luzardo will project at 20pts higher than his listed value. That's why I tossed Ober in as a likely ask from the Marlins. Solid pitcher. Tons of control left, and he'll stay cheap due to the Twins misusing him by burying him in the depth charts at every opportunity. In the meantime, Brooks Lee gets the Marlins a highly hyped middle infielder prospect near MLB ready as he's going to get, and a potential starting MLB CF by the end of the year. Lots of control. Minimal costs, not a huge loss in terms of the rotation. TD waxes poetically about Pablo Lopez every time his name is mentioned, but Luzardo is better than Lopez in terms of results the past 2 years. The durability concerns are all that's holding him back. Again, this is all hypothetical because I don't think the Twins would make the deal, and I also don't think Falvey should make this type of deal if he wants to be employed next year.

Baseballtradevalues.com Luzardo = +62 Lee = +25, Ober = +23, Rodriguez = +20 Miami will absolutely demand a high value prospect or solid cost controlled pitcher back in the exchange. Twins' options are Varland or Ober. Or Joe Ryan would probably drop the 3rd prospect from Emmanuel Rodriguez to Gabriel Gonzalez, but again, I suspect the Twins would be loathe to part with fan favorite Ryan as part of the exchange. Luzardo's xFIP matches his ERA and FIP. Ober's xFIP is dramatically higher suggesting he's just been lucky with his ERAs. Not sure if this year's 54.00 ERA start is reflective of that. In any case, outside a Twins fan's perspective, Ober is not near the same league as Luzardo (who has been as good or better than Pablo Lopez the past 2 seasons a24/a25).

Agreed. It sure looks like the Twins kicked him to the curb hoping to court a better TV deal and it clearly didn't work out. Dave St. Peter looks like he might need to move into a more limited role to me.

Rooker will rake again this year, but I'd bet pretty hard against the MVP and HR record still hahahah.

Not really. Walk in one gate, walk out. Next ticket. Walk in the next gate, walk out. You could go with a group of entrepreneurial types.

Luzardo - Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, Emmanuel Rodriguez I suspect you don't like that price tag much.

Situational batting average (runners on, bases empty, runners in scoring position, etc) isn't significantly different. If the Twins go 6 for 10, today, their team average will jump to .211. It's just a matter of time.

I expect the Twins bullpen to be great this year. Duran being out hurts right now, but after that, no biggie.

Buy 10 tickets for $10 ea. Show up at gate open. In-out-in-out, leave before game start. $150 profit. Also, did you ever see the lines on Caribou Coffee BOGO days from years past? People would drive like 20 minutes out of their way to save $4. Or the dad who drove 10 miles to save 5 cents a gallon on gas, LOL.

It seems like you're implying we should eliminate all pitching from the game to prevent all UCL injuries. I'm sure we have enough pitch machines where we could make it happen. I'm not for it though. I'd like to keep pitchers in the game. There is no safe workload. UCL tears are the result of an acute overstress. A single pitch causes a UCL tear. Not the 40th pitch or the 190th pitch. Just takes one. No meta analysis has found strong correlations with specific innings limits or pitch counts. Relievers often have UCL injuries and need TJ, yet they often don't pitch more than 60 innings a year or 30 pitches in a game. Pitchers are all different. Builds, genetics, how they wind up and deliver pitches, types of pitches, how hard they throw, how quickly they recover. It differs by pitcher.

I have also been very highly frustrated with the giveaway situation last year. Arriving 30-45min early for any giveaway which is decent isn't early enough. The attendance gets announced at like 25,000, but you look around the stadium and wonder if there's actually more than 10k. You'll find all the giveaways on ebay after the game. I suspect people are getting ultra cheap tickets, grabbing up the giveaways and selling them for profit. https://www.ebay.com/itm/186276421557?itmmeta=01HTP6RET3DJPF4VN372KHTTSX&hash=item2b5ef09fb5:g:0kMAAOSwQkRluFl6&itmprp=enc%3AAQAJAAAA8JkBOOI34bft7mwFSibJHSh1o7E9U2XgQMOBVsw1sLC%2BZTkJgosZlzUCj5J%2BCtzgqg61Y1HCqwa8caMmeCFkcOdOnYHHZQoPbtlyQHkO8NNP5Grpc1oLuZdZCE4ifZNKq1O8iCICePgjJzk5GDrOtPbDZuJokPV7xFqOnmM316xicajlalYXerNTHFe1Q0rPMwmCIup0bj%2FDeAF5ELq5lQuprgsjsCACZF3VisXfXoPcsIl1q4WLjW2pZbPaalrnMEr1MLpQNjA3cT1nHpNRlCmQKac6GE9JO088NhUVRckl%2FL7Xm%2FtnOO7XREs0NSTsgg%3D%3D|tkp%3ABFBMju3hxtVj

Many young pitchers have arm issues. It's commonplace these days and it cannot be avoided by giving them artificially low pitch counts and innings limits. The best case scenario is kicking the can down the line a year for their imminent UCL tear. The workload will eventually have to build up, and if injury is going to happen, it's going to happen. The single greatest risk factor for UCL tears is increased velocity. This is a known factor at this point. If teams want to avoid arm injuries, they can stop getting tunnel vision on velocity, but velocity produces results so I suspect that's not going to happen, and I suspect if a team did decide to be so magnanimous, the fans would quickly backlash at having 5 very healthy AAAA 87mph fastball pitchers in the rotation. How about we look at the Guardians as an example? They're considered pitching development gurus far, far superior to what the Twins front office has produced. 2015 - a18 Brady Aiken. UCL tear noted post-draft. Pitched 46 innings a19. Pitched 132 innings a20. 2015 - a17 Triston McKenzie. 12 innings (a17 post draft). 83 innings (a18). 143 innings (a19). 2016 - a21 Aaron Civale. 152 innings NCAA/MiLB (a21). 163 innings (a22) 2018 - a18 Ethan Hankins. 3 innings (a18 post draft). 60 innings (a19), 2020 no season. 0.0 IP. UCL tear immediate (a21) 2019 - a18 Daniel Espino. 24 innings (a18 post draft). 2020 no season. 92 innings (a20). 2019 - a21 5th rd Hunter Gaddis. 75 innings (a19 NCAA). 119 innings (a20 NCAA). 124 innings (a21 NCAA/MiLB) 2020 - a22 Tanner Burns. 87 innings (a19 NCAA). 80 innings (a20 NCAA). 22 innings (2020 NCAA). 76 innings (a22) 2020 - a21 Logan Allen. 74 innings (a19 NCAA). 99 innings (a20 NCAA/Smr). 26 innings (2020 NCAA). 111 innings (a22) 2021 - a21 Gavin Williams NCAA 81 innings (a21). 115 innings (a22) 2022 - a21 5th rd Tanner Bibee. 56 innings SP/RP (a19 NCAA). 113 innings (a20 NCAA/Smr). 30 innings (2020 NCAA), 90 innings (a22 NCAA). 133 innings (a23). Just some of the high rounders the Guardians have drafted in recent years. The biggest injury was to the guy they protected the most having him throw the fewest innings (Ethan Hankins). NCAA teams often have their a18-a19 pitchers at 80+ innings, even if they're RP/SP and don't have a rotation spot right out of HS. Sometimes high profile HS commits even hit 100 innings in their first college year. If there was some sort of recipe (pitch count, innings limits, etc.) to prevent UCL tears and losing 18 months of development time for multi-million dollar signing bonus, high profile draft picks, it would be published everywhere for all to see by now. It would absolutely be a set in stone practice in MLB because the MLBPA would demand it.

Tommy John had surgery in September, 1974. He didn't pitch in 1975, but did return 18 months after in April, 1976. John pitched 207 innings when the league leader pitched 315 that year and the 10th highest was 279 innings. So pro-rating things. 18 months down, then 142 innings pitched.

Maybe the Twins should just trade Wallner if they don't want to play him?

You sure are riled up about this, lol. Even a bad team will win 40% of their games and an outstanding team will win 60%.

Miranda is playing 3B because he's enormously more valuable, and much easier to roster if he can play 3B is my best guess. His defense hasn't been great, but Miranda isn't really a platoon guy and if he can hold down 3B with a wRC+ 115ish bat, he's a young, cost controlled, 2.5-3.0 WAR starting caliber 3B. Valuable stuff either for the Twins or to another team with maybe an excess of starting pitching? If he's at 1B/DH, he's a 1.5-2.0 WAR kinda guy. Good enough, but worth upgrading if the team has a chance.

Fastball is hard on the elbow. Velocity has the biggest impact. Curveball is the most stressful per mph, but since it's thrown slower, the overall stress is lower.

Agreed. Woods-Richardson's results were better in the second half, but his underlying numbers weren't exactly glowing. The 20.5% K vs. 12.0% BB was almost exactly the same. The .230 BABIP was unsustainable as was the 0.79/9 HR rate. He didn't pitch better, he just got better results. If Woods-Richardson is able to sustain the velocity improvement for a few games in a stable competitive atmosphere, I'll take notice because I'm pretty sure the results will follow.

Somebody will be selling, but the market will be inferno hot, I expect. The Marlins have Nick Gordon now so I don't think they'll be selling... LOL

Playoff teams. 90+ innings. Mean average leaders in ERA. Twins were Gray, Ober, Lopez for reference. SP1 - 3.13 SP2 - 3.56 SP3 - 3.87 SP4 - 4.08 SP5 - 4.40

I'd be really surprised if the Twins don't grab a front line starter or a bat (if needed) at the trade deadline. $30MM becomes $10MM pro-rated at the deadline.

I don't think the Twins view Raya as a conventional starter at this point. Limiting him to 50 pitches per start last year despite Raya being healthy, and despite allowing him to go to 70-80 pitches the year prior (2022) is clear as day to me on projection. It's pretty common to see college guys throwing 100 innings in a season. That's about where I'd like to see Soto, if he's healthy.

I'm pessimistic about SP2 and SP3 living up to the 3.40-3.80s in ERAs I expect of their peers. That said, taking a look at pitcher results from last year suggests I might be expecting a little too much. SP1 (1-30) = 2.25-3.46 SP2 (31-60) = 3.47-3.87 SP3 (61-90) = 3.91-4.44 SP4 (91-120) = 4.45-5.06 SP5 (121-141) = 5.09-7.40 Wonder if we're headed back into the steroid era for run production.