bean5302

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2021.shtml Looking at the 2021 voting, I wouldn't be surprised if Clemens (61.6%, 3rd most valuable pitcher of all time), Bonds (61.8%, 2nd most valuable hitter of all time) and Schilling (71.1%) were all elected in their 10th and final year. If voters have been holding out for the last time on the ballot for some of those names, it could wind up costing weaker candidates like Nathan.

I would really love Baseball Reference or another major data site to create a "PED re-profile" tool which would re-curve performance based on expected exit velocity changes. It would be totally unfair because you don't know who was using, but I think it would be helpful all around. If 10% of OPS improvement was PEDs, if you re-curve the players who've been tainted, maybe it would help the fringe guys get more recognition and separate the HoF regardless of PED use guys from the guys who might not have made it. Sheffield, Ramirez, Sosa probably don't have the numbers to get in with that adjustment.

Sure. The popular opinion on this board is Buxton is an MVP level talent. A guy who could put together an 8-10 WAR season if he was healthy. He's played 140 games twice (2016 split between MLB/AAA and 2017). 70% of Byron Buxton, based on popular opinon here is 5.6-7.0 WAR or so over a full season. So like, Mookie Betts or Bryce Harper. Those guys are a little spendy and the Twins are not going to do it. I think you could probably move Marcus Semien to center field. It sounds like he's going to get over $200MM any day now. The Twins hear $100MM or more and they panic.

Listen, if you're unwilling to accept Jake Cave is a potential Hall of Famer, late bloomer... ?

Bonds is the figurehead for the steroid era. The proof that steroids create legendary career performance (even if it doesn't actually do anything remotely close to that). It's not fair Bonds has been so ostracized, but his extreme success actually works against him. Bonds was so good that people hated his success; they were jealous, and his surly public persona made it even worse. People actively wanted Bonds to fail. That's my opinion.

There are some key differences. Canseco named Sosa and Canseco's got some credibility. Sosa was also named in an affidavit by Jeffrey Novitzky, an IRS agent who led the BALCO investigation, though it seems it was only specific to amphetamines. Sosa also played virtually his entire career in the steroid era. There's a lot more than a maybe/maybe not positive test for Sosa. That said, the outrage over steroid and PED use in 2009 was far greater than today. Do keep in mind, BALCO was literally 20 years ago.

I really like Joe Nathan, but the gap between Nathan and Rivera is cavernous. A quick glance down the bWAR lists: Dennis Eckersly (HoF) = 62.2 Mariano Rivera (HoF) = 56.3 Rich Gossage (HoF) = 41.6 Lee Smith (HoF) = 29.3 Trevor Hoffman (HoF) = 28.1 Billy Wagner = 27.8 (2019. 16.7%, 31.7%, 46.4%) Joe Nathan = 26.7 (2022) Francisco Rodriguez = 24.1 (2023) John Franco = 23.6 Jonathan Papelbon = 23.3 (2022) Craig Kimbrel = 21.9 (still active) Rick Aguilera = 20.7 Jeff Reardon = 19.0 Troy Percival = 17.0 I think Nathan has an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. He wasn't good in the post season, blowing a couple games with an 8.10 ERA in just 10 appearances with 10.0 innings pitched. I don't think that's going to be working well for him. He was definitely right there with Mariano Rivera as #1A and #1B from 2004-2009 and I think Nathan gets in if he didn't go down with TJ in 2010. Now, he's really pushing the limits. There are a lot of closers who are around him in saves and WAR who fell off the list fast.

Patrick Arnold (creator of "The Clear THG) "...Yes, people back then did test positive because of supplements, and occasionally it was for nandrolone, which I think (Ortiz) is alluding to, but not verbatim," Arnold told the Daily News yesterday. "If he could say it was nandrolone, I'd say, 'OK, you may have a case.'... https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/balco-chemist-david-ortiz-supplement-tale-feasible-article-1.395677 Ortiz does not appear in the Mitchell Report. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_named_in_the_Mitchell_Report Anonomous drug testing in 2003 contained inconclusives, not just positives. "Ortiz claims he did not know his result came back positive. As one of the 13 or more inconclusive results, that makes sense because Ortiz’ name does not appear in The Mitchell Report. As Schmidt wrote yesterday, “All players who tested positive in 2003 were told that their tests had been seized by the government, according to the report presented to Major League Baseball by George J. Mitchell ….” The report never cites Sosa, Ramirez, or Ortiz “ maybe because they didn’t test positive. At any rate, that’s as plausible as Schmidt’s vague sources." https://cantstopthebleeding.com/no-smearing-in-the-press-box-iii-big-papi-vindicates-cstb-blowhard-michael-s-schmidt-commences-damage-control Just because you don't like facts or something doesn't align with your opinion does not make it satire.

Ortiz hasn't talked about it much at all. He said he believes he may have tested postitive due to an over the counter supplement. The chemist who created the THG (The Clear) is on record saying it's feasible an over the counter supplement could have triggered a positive. In addition, the Mitchell Report also may have contained names of players who may have tested inconclusive. Ortiz didn't show any changes to his body type or decline in production with the implementation of testing. So you don't know for sure he tested positive or what substance it may have been that caused the inconclusive or positive result. Aside from that, Ortiz played his entire meaningful career in Boston and never tested positive there. You have a very strong opinion despite having almost no information to back it up.

The Twins were between a rock and a hard place with Enlow. Protecting him and potentially losing a different player in rule 5 as a result. If Enlow winds up busting, and a different rule 5 pick leaves and does well, the Twins will face criticism again. It's the front office's job to protect players they've evaluated as having the talent and drive necessary to make an impact at the MLB level. Time will tell if they do a better job than they have at talent recognition.

This topic has been previously covered. I don't think it's nearly as polarizing as you do. The case for Ortiz and steroids is one of the weakest out there and only the most hard core anti-steroid writers will consider it IMHO. Nothing from Canseco's book. No positive tests from 2003-2016. No known BALCO scandal ties. No known Biogenesis scandal ties. Ortiz played 85% of his career and his entire Red Sox career after testing and penalties were implemented. Ortiz will be in the Hall of Fame. He won't be a first ballot guy, I don't think because his overall WAR numbers aren't good enough for that, but he was one of the most prolific hitters in baseball after the year 2000. Ortiz has compiled more than 50 fWAR and 55 bWAR in his career. For a full time career DH (Ortiz completed only 166 of 2,408 games in his career at 1B)? That's a very rare bird.

I don't have anything personal against Niko Goodrum, but I'd rather play Palacios. I find it hard to believe Palacios hasn't warranted at least being looked at as a utility infielder. Goodrum is a known quantity, he's a 30 year old (by the start of 2022) utility infielder who can't hit. He's not exactly a black hole on a roster, but he doesn't add anything, either. Over his last 504 plate appearances and 2 years, he's generated 0.3 fWAR and 0.1 bWAR with a .632 OPS.

The Twins haven't exactly treated highly regarded Asian league players well in my opinion. So why would a player from an Asian league look at the Twins as a potential landing spot? The Twins were quick to bench and demote Park with an injured wrist and never really gave him a good look after. Gardy was publicly critical of Nishioka right off the bat, and it can certainly be said Nishioka didn't play well, either he nor Park even got 300 plate appearances in MLB.

It wasn't an arbitration contract, but the Twins have made similar moves under Falvey like eating $2.5MM on Anibal Sanchez in 2018 before cutting him on March 11, less than a month after he signed. If the Twins are willing to eat $2.5MM, they'll also be willing to eat $200k if they cut Cave before the season. I don't think it's even a bad look for the Twins as I'd be surprised Cave would be able to get an MLB contract from anybody right now. I think it's basically just free money for him right now.

Considering how the Twins treated Nishioka and Park, it'd be a cold day in hell before I'd come out of Korea or Japan to sign with the Twins.

No. As a rookie Buxton produced 0.1 fWAR. Then 1.5, then 3.6, then -0.3, then 2.7, then 1.2 before this past season... where again, until the last 10 games of the year, he was like 2.5 fWAR.

Management fees vary, as you say. I based it on 5% of the rental value at $800/mo per apartment, which worked out to about 10% of the payment which seemed nice and easy. Given the size, I'd actually expect it might be a bit more than that. Regardless, when we're at $60,000, arguing over a few hundred or even a couple thousand isn't going to turn the tide. Typically, utilities are not included in units and MLB didn't say utilities had to be covered, but even if I were to add utilities (water, sewer, gas, electric, garbage), it would still be $45,000 cheaper. Maintenance, groundskeeping and common area cleaning is required and that can definitely cost some money so now maybe $38,000 cheaper assuming the players had to pay nothing at all. Not sure that's the case. Even though players don't have to be on the lease, are they going to have costs deducted? It didn't really say, I don't think. Not sure how the apartment complex would operate during the offseason, whether it would be filled with short term leases or what. I didn't take into consideration the potential value of having $77,000 of revenue during the offseason. The whole thing is moot since MLB teams cannot use hotels/motels except when apartments, rental houses and host families are not feasible.

Oswaldo Arcia is only 30. That's crazy to think. I really felt like getting DFA'd by the Twins was going to light a fire under him. He had a huge year on a MiLB contract with the Diamondbacks, but he was jogjammed behind other talent and didn't get a shot at the MLB roster that year. Then it was off to Japan where he performed poorly for a single season. For a guy who seemingly had so much talent to fall so far and so hard.

Well, I suppose the things which matter to us are a lot different. Different objectives lead to different conclusions, haha.

"Suck for Luck" was real. Teams weren't even putting their best players on the field.

As I recall, the way Palacios got to his consistent .800+ OPS months shifted around in regard to batting average or power, etc, but the end of the day was a pretty steady OPS. It's hard to take much away from a single month because a nasty 10 or 20 game run of luck can blow numbers to pieces.

If Buxton knew he'd be healthy, have a great year and the CBA would work out well for the players, I'm sure he'd elect not to sign an extension right now. There are a lot of things Buxton might consider at the moment. The same reasons it's so very hard to figure out what a fair offer or his trade value actually looks like.

If you think Buxton is so awesome and important, why would he only bring a couple fringe prospects?

Buxton has produced less than 2.0 fWAR per season across his career. He was under 2.5 fWAR until the last 10 games of the season this past year. A player like that doesn't make the difference between retool and rebuild. What they replace Buxton with will make the difference.

A lot of professional sports owners are real estate specialists. Buying a mid size apartment complex isn't going to be a big deal. It's easy and cheap. It's also virtually guaranteed to be "feasible." Hotels/motels are only allowed on a very exception basis based on what I read above. Apartments, Rental Homes (like AirBnB or VRBO) and Host Families must all be exhausted before considering hotels. There are no leases the players can sign which would include sub-leasing. Apartment owners would not be able to have the tenant's (player) name on a lease. Of course, hotel ownership and management is your expertise and I'm not even about to pretend I'm as knowledgable as you are on the subject. I might be opinionated, but I try not to be an ignorant and arrogant jerk at the same time. Let's say MLB teams could go to motels and say I want to book 16 double rooms in your motel for 6-7 months. Let's compare the finances over a single year. Motel 6 vs. a $1.5MM apartment complex. The apartment complex with an I/O at 3.25% is going to be $3,312.50/mo * 12mo = $39,750 per year. In addition, we'll budget 10% of that for property management, bringing the total to $43,725. Now, what's a motel for 16 rooms per month in Cedar Rapids, IA (Kernels)? Let's say it's Motel 6. The motel owners are going to give a 30% discount off their already published rates ($39/night) at $27/night. Now add in taxes and fees and figure $35/night. 16 rooms, 30 days = $16,800/mo * 6 months = $100,800. So the MLB team would save nearly $60,000 annually by buying an apartment complex, and they'd have way more control, but also way more responsibility for the property. Any tax benefit from the more expensive hotel rate would be more than offset by depreciating the property value on the apartment complex or deducting improvements. Motel 6 comes with perks too. It's super easy from an accounting standpoint and it's staffed, comes with security cameras and key log reports of entry/exit, but again, hotels/motels can only be utilized on an exception basis. It's cheaper to own the apartment complex than all options except maybe host families and teams would have more control over an owned property, plus they'd be able to concentrate their players in a single location for logistics and be able to set rules more effectively. Property management would be handled by a different company (possibly affiliated with the owner already) reducing that burden of owning the apartment, and of course, it's allowed to own an apartment complex in the rules whereas it's probably not allowed to use a motel/hotel service in most cases. When it's all said and done, I can only speculate what owners or team front offices might be thinking. I could be completely and totally off base when valuing certain things. I can't even manage to agree with the baseball team on baseball related decisions, haha.