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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    FIP is not based on ERA and doesn't use the LOB% as a factor so the strand rate is utterly irrelevant. FIP is a tool used to create a predictive/expected ERA based on past metrics without considering defense or base running, etc. If Megill's LOB% was 0% or 100%, it would literally make no impact to his FIP. His FIP is what you might expect his ERA should be based on how many people got on base and how they reached. In regard to the FB rate, I assumed you were talking about fly ball rate, not fastball rate. My apologies, I misunderstood your intent. Well, looking at age, velocity and fastball rate, Berrios is age 27 throws his (2) fastballs at at average of 94mph and is 56% fastball. Megill is age 26 (basically) thows his (1) fastball at 95mph and has a 58% fastball rate. They're essentially the same except Megill throws a tick harder and is a year younger so I would argue the risk here is pretty similar based on your critera. I agree. There's no way in hell the Mets are trading Megill for Berrios right now and that was my point in posts above somewhere I'd expect the pre-arb pitcher the Twins could target as being David Peterson, but folks are already upset with the idea of getting Megill so I'd expect them to lose their excrement over a trade including Peterson haha
  2. bean5302
    I've never understood how fans convince themselves of this. The Twins made uncompetitive offers to Wheeler and Darvish for just two examples. Either the front office failed to anticipate what would be competitive or they weren't really expecting to sign those pitchers. If the Twins had made Wheeler a 5 / 125MM offer or Darvish a 6 / 130MM, they'd both be wearing Twins uniforms today. The only way the "player X wanted to play somewhere else" works is if your team actually makes an offer of essentially equal or higher value. As far as "value" goes, it's based on WAR, but value is not equal to different teams and that's explained when you research the metric. 1 win is a lot more valuable to a team with 89 wins than it would be to a team with 60 wins or 110 wins. The point is not to determine value for a specific team in a specific season. The intent is to determine an approximate value for a player in MLB as a whole because these metrics are used to evaluate the players themselves, not the teams.
  3. bean5302
    I'm certainly not enamored with him. If Megill was an obvious, dominant, top of the rotation starter, he'd be untouchable. The Twins would be starting that conversation with half their farm system. Like Berrios + Buxton + Lewis + Balazovic + Kirilloff for a dominant, top of the rotation starter with 6 years of team control.
  4. bean5302
    The Twins spend under the league median every year and refuse to spend when they have an obvious need and opportunity for a World Series run. The ownership is very opposed to long contracts due to risk, but they're willing to take the same annual risk across multiple short contracts which don't pan out. Couple all that with the inability the organization has at developing pitching and the Twins find themselves at the spot they're in now. I disagree the Twins cannot afford to spend $150MM. You need to spend money to make money. When the Twins put a winning product on the field, they'll get the revenue they need for the $150MM budget.
  5. bean5302
    In general, I look at each acquisition assuming they could take a step down and decline. A guy with a 4.00 ERA can easily become a guy with a 5.00 ERA for a year. Especially as they age into their mid/late 30s. It's one the reasons I almost always advocate for getting top free agents. If they take a step back, they're still valuable. If you go bargain shopping and they take a step back, you don't really even want to play them and the money is totally wasted because other teams don't want them. I view Shoemaker as a dumpster dive. He hadn't been a solid starter for the previous 4 years (2017-2020). Happ was also a bargain signing with plenty of warning signs. Colombe has a 2.70 ERA and 2.58 FIP over his past 10 appearances. Even since May 1, Colombe has a 3.33 ERA, though his FIP is 4.16. Relief pitchers can get hit pretty hard by a few bad outings.
  6. bean5302
    His FIP is 3.72 which takes into consideration to the obvious LOB luck fueled 2.63 ERA and is almost as good as Berrios, albeit in a small sample size at the MLB level. Fangraphs shows a 38.7% FB rate, not a 58.2% rate you're quoting, and Megill is generating a lot of ground balls, which is nice to see. I hadn't looked into his exit velocity allowed, but I went ahead and did that now, too. Megill is 24th out of 461 in average exit velocity for pitchers with more than 50 batted ball events this year at 89.5mph. This low exit velocity and low barrel rate along with the high ground ball rate could help explain the lack of line drives allowed. That said, I did notice that even though Megill hasn't been allowing hitters to barrel up the ball well against him, he has a hard hit percentage is higher than average so I guess you could look at the hard hit percentage standalone and call that a red flag. I agree 94.6mph is below 95.0mph on his average fastball, though it feels a little disingenuous to be so concerned over 0.4mph. Megill is throwing strikes, not giving up a ton of hits and striking guys out. His success at the MLB level has followed solid production from the minors with no real hiccups and a fast promotion rate. Signs point to Megill potentially being better than Jose Berrios and the Mets have him under control for 6 years.
  7. bean5302
    Can't disagree with Balazovic being promoted at this point. He's got nothing left to prove in AA. Even if the Twins were having him work on something, he's clearly not being challenged any longer.
  8. bean5302
    Thorpe was never the same after TJ. Lost a couple mph and he was a B- or C+ prospect before he tore the UCL. MLB hitters scorched his pitches and Thorpe has hardly been impressive in the minors after 2018. I think it was a big mistake to keep Thorpe on the roster instead of Tyler Wells this past offseason. Since Dobnak is under contract for a couple more years, I can't see the Twins ditching him without some more opportunities.
  9. bean5302
    I don't see the Mets giving Megill up as part of a Berrios trade. I'm not seeing any red flags in Megill's performance, he's team controlled for years and years and right now his results are arguably already on par with Berrios. Megill was drafted out of college and rose through the ranks fast as this is only his 2nd full season in their system and he's already pitching well at the MLB level. If the Twins are being reasonable, the pre-arb type of pitcher you get in return for Berrios is more like a David Peterson along with Mauricio and Allen.
  10. bean5302
    I like your field of stuffed strawmen. Very rustic!
  11. bean5302
    San Diego is small market and considering exceeding the luxury tax this year. Kansas City and Baltimore had a payrolls of $153MM and $167MM in 2017. The Twins could spend, the ownership is just too risk averse.
  12. bean5302
    Probably depends on how much the Twins think of Miguel Sano and Brent Rooker. I'd expect the Twins to move Sano to DH and Kiriloff to 1B. Rooker will probably get a long look at DH and Sano will be used as PH/DH for the rest of the season. The Twins' offense is definitely going to be a lot less potent without Cruz, unfortunately.
  13. bean5302
    Mitch Garver is ranked 10th of 45 catchers in MLB with 250+ innings this year in wild pitches. Meaning 35 other catchers have allowed more wild pitches than Mitch Garver. Garver's ranking on wild pitches is consistently good and he has allowed fewer wild pitches relative to his peers than he has allowed passed balls (where he's about average). If you have data, please feel free to present it.
  14. bean5302
    You're free to find some statistics over the past couple years to suggest he's bad if you'd like to counter my argument with something other than your personal eye test. Based on what I've seen, you're not going to find much luck looking for the data to support your opinion in pitch framing, error rate, passed balls, wild pitches or caught stealing percentage. I've seen Garver make some pretty awful plays so I can understand where your opinion may have formed, but the assumption the rest of the starting catchers out there are better doesn't seem to be reflected in really any of the data over the past couple years.
  15. bean5302
    Among the 45 catchers in MLB with more than 250 innings at the position this year, Garver is 18th (better than average) in passed balls with 2. The median is 3 and the bottom 5 ranked catchers have all allowed at least 7 passed balls each. Among the same group of 45 catchers, Garver is ranked 10th (top quartile) with 12. The median is 17.5. The bottom 5 have all allowed at least 34. I've noticed bashing Garver's defense seems to be a pretty popular thing in the forums; however, the data doesn't support the hate. He's not the best catcher to ever put on gear, but he's shaped himself into a solid backstop.
  16. bean5302
    I think it's important to evaluate what contracts look like these days. "Ace" is a term I think most people feel should be used with elite pitchers in terms of single game value. Pitchers who routinely show ERAs in the 2s or very low 3s, "Aces" are in the 5+ years and $30MM+ AAV. For a young "ace" contract these days consider a few of these. 2013 = Felix Hernandez 7 years $175MM (AAV 25MM) 2013 = Justin Verlander 7-8 years $180MM-202MM (AAV 25-26MM) 2013 = Clayton Kershaw 7 years $210MM (AAV 30MM) 2014 = Jon Lester 6-7 years $155MM-170MM (AAV 24-26MM) 2015 = Zack Greincke 6 years $206MM (AAV 34MM) 2015 = Max Scherzer 7 years $210MM (AAV 30MM) 2018 = Yu Darvish 6 years $126MM (AAV 21MM) 2019 = DeGrom 5 years $138MM (AAV 28MM) 2020 = Stephen Strasburg 7 years $245MM (AAV 35MM) 2020 = Gerrit Cole 9 years $324MM (AAV 36MM) 5 years $125MM is nowhere near typical "ace" money. Then again, we really don't have a good idea what Berrios is asking in the first place, and we also have no clue what the Twins have been countering with. Berrios will probably bring 5 years and $125MM on the open market as a free agent. Signing now, before he becomes a free agent, transfers a fair bit of risk to the Twins and the expectation is extensions generally come with a bit of a discount built in for that reason. I'd think 5 years $115MM or 6 years $130MM would be reasonable. Anything over 5 years and $125MM feels foolhardy.
  17. bean5302
    Higher meaning more likely to contribute to the Twins winning a World Series on an annual basis. I believe players who are likely to generate higher fWAR and bWAR on an annual basis are more likely to contribute to a team's success. I'd wager you'd be correct in your assertion the National (and American) Leagues have valued perceived defensive contributions when choosing a shortstop for more cumulative years than the player performance at the plate over the past 100 years. I would be very surprised to see evidence backing that up over the past decade, though. I give you Pedro Florimon as a good example. Despite being an excellent defensive shortstop, he hasn't had a starting shortstop job in MLB since the Twins moved on from him after 2014. Florimon wasn't even a black hole at the plate owning a .732 OPS in his last 3 seasons at the MLB level (which ended in 2018). Right now, Florimon sits at San Diego's AAA affiliate while a poor defensive shortstop by the name of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is enjoying his first year of a 13 year $330MM contract on San Diego's MLB roster as a starter. Based on all accounts I've read, Simmons was not signed by Minnesota to be a defense only SS, btw. He has a career .267 average (since you used that statistic) and was expected to be a league average-ish bat for the Twins.
  18. bean5302
    There will be a lot of FA shortstops to choose from for 2022. I'd hope the Twins would aim a little higher than Simmons if they're looking to compete.
  19. bean5302
    Polanco's error rate continues to be pretty high and UZR paints his play in a pretty bad light. Defensive metrics usually get closer together through the full year so it'll be interesting to see how things look at the end of the season.
  20. bean5302
    I am. Valimont is pitching against AA hitters who often don't have good plate discipline. If they can lay off his offerings and take pitches for balls, it means Valimont's stuff isn't going to fool anybody at the MLB level.
  21. bean5302
    Somebody must have told them it was the playoffs...
  22. bean5302
    If I was to hazard a guess it would have something to do with Donaldson being in his stance ready for the pitch and Arraez is staring off into the outfield stands, facing away from the plate unable to see what was happening. Then, Arraez started moving around in Donaldson's line of sight to pick up the pitch. Arraez wasn't in position, he wasn't ready and he was distracting Donaldson. Feels pretty disrespectful to me. I don't think it's any big deal. More of just a "Come on, man! Get your head in the game!" The dugout conversation looked like a no biggie to me.
  23. bean5302
    After this last start, I can't see any MLB team discussing Happ at all. There are guys any team has at AAA who would probably be a better choice.
  24. bean5302
    Polanco looks to be putting together a solid 2.5-3.0 WAR campaign this year based on positional value and his bat. There are reasons to think Polanco's performance at the plate continue to climb a bit since his BABIP is still a bit too low at .267 compared to his career .307, but his HR rate is probably a bit inflated. Polanco doesn't walk a ton, but he also doesn't strike out a lot and he brings a little pop. Defensive metrics can be pretty unreliable until you get a couple full seasons together and there are several different systems for measuring play. While Baseball Reference shows Polanco with a Total Zone per 1200 innings of +10 runs, UZR/150 shows Polanco at a -13.7 runs over 150 games. That's literally 2 WAR difference just in defensive metric projections across a full season. Regardless of the advanced metrics, one thing which is clear, the biggest contributor to Polanco's previous defensive shortcomings (error rate) is still an issue. That said, Polanco is playing as a 2B consistently for the first time in several years so there's still room for improvement. While Polanco's contract is pretty minimal right now, it grades up to $10.5MM by year 2024 and I don't think he provides a big upside over Luis Arraez. Honestly, I think Arraez is good enough to start on a lot of MLB teams so keeping him as a utility guy feels wasteful. I think the Twins should seek to move Arraez or Polanco before next season and if I were choosing a player to move, it'd be Polanco for the savings.
  25. bean5302
    Mitch Garver vs Ryan Jeffers. Luckily, Garver (258 innings) and Jeffers (298 innings) have played in a similar number of innings with the same pitching staff this year. Framing? Garver +2, Jeffers +1. Errors? Identical = 1 Passed balls count? Identical = 2 Wild pitches? Garver = 10 vs. Jeffers = 12 Caught stealing? Garver 20% (career 20%), Jeffers 35% (career 25%), but opposing teams have run on Jeffers far more frequently 26 attempts vs. 15 attempts. Jeffers was bad in 2020, catching only 13% while Garver caught 33% last year. As far as CS%, that seems to fluctuate a lot, year to year. It seems hard to gauge without a few years in a row with similar numbers. If I were a betting person, I'd wager the stance on Garver's defense has more to do with reputation than reality.
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