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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'm all for Snell if he's pitching like the ace he was last year. If Snell finishes the season out strong, he is not going to opt in to $30MM. He's going to take his 5yrs $100MM vs. risking another down year. The Twins have never traded for an ace mid year to the best of my memory. Snell shouldn't really be that expensive, if available, due to the rough start to the season and his current payroll. Joe Ryan's having a career year right now, and there's nothing in his advanced metrics to suggest there's huge regression coming, and Lopez has not pitched dominantly this year. The Twins really need a #1 starter to take Gray's spot for the playoffs.
  2. bean5302
    I was talking about his last few starts overall. Not in regard to whether he was consistently great during the game. It's expected a pitcher will run into at least a little trouble during a game no matter how good they are.
  3. bean5302
    I don't know about Larnach. He's pumpkin-izing back to his old self in terms of production. Pitch Type Pitch % Exp. Pitches 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fastball 28% 448 4 2 0 18 Slider 18% 288 -4 7 2 -5 Changeup 18% 288 -8 -7 -2 -10 Curveball 11% 176 1 -4 -3 -3 Sinker 9% 144 -3 4 2 -3 Cutter 6% 96 -4 -4 5 5 Splitter 5% 80 0 -6 4 -3 Other 5% 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1600 Haven't posted an update on his pitch weakness in a bit, but it's clear the offspeed and breaking stuff is starting to give him near universal fits again. Last 20 games 72 PA .224/.264/.388 OPS .652 wRC+ 83, 5.6% BB, 15.3% K Last 30 games 109 PA .200/.257/.370 OPS .627 wRC+ 77, 7.3% BB, 16.5% K He's not the same hitter as he was in year past. He's more aggressive at the plate and it did pay dividends during a searing 11 game hot streak 4/22-5/8, but outside that, his production has been pretty poor. It seems Larnach likely truly cannot identify non-fastballs like I had assumed for a years now. Comments about a shortened swing to help him make adjustments as the reason he was turning a corner made sense, but it just seems more likely he's at his limits. xwOBA suggests Larnach has been victimized by bad luck, but most of his Statcast data has been average to above average over the past few weeks. Statcast's rolling 100 plate appearances suggests Larnach's xwOBA is well above average, but I don't see much which would tie to that. 5/17-6/29 = 101 PA 17.3% Line Drive (poor), 48.1% Ground Ball (poor), 14.3% HR:FB rate (good), 90.9mph (avg), 9.9% barrel (above average), 37.0% hard hit (below average).
  4. bean5302
    Yeah, Jenkins has had a pretty awful start to the season without even considering the nasty hamstring pull. .219/.320/.313 OPS .633 wRC+ 89 with no power in 75 plate appearances. Taking more walks, and striking out a little more than last year in his repeat of Low A, but the big issue has been the evaporation of power. I don't really trust low minors batted ball data, but right now, showing Jenkins with a 40% pop up rate. Wonder if the Twins are having him work on something which just isn't working?
  5. bean5302
    a20 A+, Rayne Doncon = .250/.345/.411 OPS .756 wRC+ 116 a21 A+, Noah Miller = .250/.328/.348 OPS .676 wRC+ 95
  6. bean5302
    Lopez's last games have been pretty inconsistent. He needs to be better to justify the position the Twins were expecting him to fill. 1) Great 2) Great 3) Awful 4) Acceptable 5) Awful 6) Great 7) Awful 8) Awful 9) Poor 10) Great
  7. bean5302
    It comes down to a few things. a) Will the Twins make a QO to Kepler? The answer to that is 90% no. He's been a 2 WAR right fielder, heavily assisted by his now declining defense with a league average bat. Even if he turns it on for the second half again and finishes up with 3 WAR again this year, he's probably taking the QO. For a guy who's made $42MM over his 10 years, a $21MM single year payday is going to be pretty amazing, and his age bracket really doesn't change going from a32 to a33 in Free Agency. b) Let's say Kepler turns down the QO (unlikely). I don't think his contract value exceeds 3-4yrs at $30-36MM. Kepler's not going to get a contract over $50MM. So the most the Twins stand to lose is a Comp B pick. c) What is Kepler's trade value at the deadline? Is it higher than Comp B, which is the absolute maximum the Twins could potentially hope to get from making the QO? I'd wager a organization 15-20 prospect or a role player on an expiring contract. d) Can the Twins replace Kepler on the roster? Yes. As of right now, Kepler is a 2 WAR type of player. Wallner, Lee, Julien, Severino, whomever you favor in the Twins prospect list as the next big thing could easily step in and fill a 2 WAR player's shoes. e) Who gets Kepler in a trade? A potential playoff team. Meaning the Twins will be making a playoff team they'll have to face later potentially better by one Mr. Maximilian Kepler, who can totally afford another ticket with his Porsche. Potential suitors? Probably the Phillies are the best bet. Maybe acquire a guy like Caleb Ricketts to add some catching depth? Should the Twins make a deal like this? My answer is... probably. Depends on the standings, injury situation, and a willing trade partner where the Twins get an actual return of something.
  8. bean5302
    That's even worse, people don't know it exists, LOL
  9. bean5302
    The easiest way to get an ace is to find Johan Santana and get him to unretire. He's probably fine to pitch. Who needs a left shoulder anyway? I saw Rick Aguilera in an interview recently. Looks like he probably body shames guys at Gold's Gym. Man that guy is in great shape. Probably ready to go.
  10. bean5302
    The Diamondbacks directly knocked out the loaded Phillies and Dodgers teams to make it to the World Series in an era where teams have to play more series' than ever. The 2010 Giants won, the 2006 Cardinals (83-79 record) won. The 2001 Diamondbacks won. The 2003 Marlins won. The 1987 Twins won. There are plenty of good, but non-elite teams who win the World Series. The 1987 Twins wasn't even good. It was a mediocre team.
  11. bean5302
    His signing bonus was $6.7MM. He's at $9.1MM career earnings already. Hopefully, he's not hurting for money.
  12. bean5302
    Then Funderburk can live in AAA for a couple months to learn.
  13. bean5302
    In no way, shape or form was that Miranda attempt "basic." That was an infield hit Miranda was trying to rob with an extraordinary play. Santana not blocking the ball and letting it get past him is where things went really sour. Can't let that ball get past you. It shouldn't have mattered since there was runner interference when Raleigh chose to run in front of Miranda. Cal Raleigh should be been forced to return to 2B, runner out at first. It wasn't a out-of-lane issue since the base running lane is only established at the point the fielder has the ball and is attempting the tag. Raleigh did adjust his lane, but not by 3 or more feet at that point.
  14. bean5302
    Severino isn't eligible for the rule 5 draft right now so how he's performing now is not relevant. How he performed last year is relevant. a25, 299 PA, .302/.452/.539 OPS .990, wRC+ 153 <--- left exposed. Not selected. a23, 153 PA, .233/.320/.511 OPS .832 wRC+ 100 <--- protected 1) Would a team have selected Severino? Probably not. 2) If a team would have selected Severino, would they have kept him? No way. He opened the year at .145/.251/.303 OPS .555 wRC+ 46 in AAA in 167 plate appearances. Even at 203 plate appearances he was .181/.281/.362 OPS .642 wRC+ 64 in AAA with a long history of being mediocre at the plate. Can you imagine how his stat line would have looked in MLB with him also being considered a poor defender? .100/.200/.250? A 50% K rate to boot? Nobody is keeping that on the 26 man.
  15. bean5302
    If you can't tell whether or not it's an intentional HBP, there is no message sent. If Funderburk wanted to send a message, it should have been the first pitch of of his night, not literally the 25th after issuing a walk and missing the zone all over the place. But, again, I think Funderburk was just wild. It was Caleb Thielbar or Cole Sands' message to send since they pitched after the Correa HBP. Funderburk had no business making the call if it was intentional. Let the veterans decide the correct course of action and learn from them. If Thielbar and Sands were okay with it, Funderburk should to stay in his lane. If it was intentional, Funderburk can go back to AAA because it was cheap, it was dirty and it didn't send any message anyway because he was so wild on his first 24 pitches and 7 batters faced.
  16. bean5302
    Not sure why anybody thinks a long term extension needs to bump Lewis to $20MM next year or something? That never happens. The Twins would lock him in using a stepped scale as if arbitration was happening. 2025 a26 = $6MM arb1 replacement 2026 a27 = $10MM arb2 replacement 2027 a28 = $15MM arb3 replacement 2028 a29 = $22MM arb4 replacement 2029 a30 = $25MM 2030 a31 = $30MM 2031 a32 = $35MM 2032 a33 = $35MM 2033 a34 = $35MM 2034 a35 = $30MM --------------------------- Full NTC ends 2035 a36 = $20MM team opt 2036 a37 = $20MM team opt 10yrs $243MM. That's how it might play out. But, even then, does it make a difference vs. waiting until the end of the season to see if Lewis can at least hold up that long? Nope. I don't see how it changes anything significant at all. For that matter, I don't think it changes waiting for Lewis to play a full year next year, either.
  17. bean5302
    Anthony Prato was a lot more impressive last year IMHO, and he didn't go anywhere when left exposed. So what if the Twins had lost him in the rule 5 pick, btw? You think a team was going to keep Severino on the 26 man the full season, especially the way he played out of the gate? The Twins would have just gotten him back again. He's #21 on our top 30 prospects for MLB. He's #40 on Fangraphs' which was just published 3 days ago.
  18. bean5302
    The chart above shows part of why Twins batters are getting hit so much. The Twins crowd the plate so if a pitch misses inside, Twins batters are more likely to get HBP than the average hitter. Pitchers are aiming low and inside because when you crowd the plate, that becomes a very difficult pitch to drive well. On top of that, late toe taps like Jeffers has makes it more difficult for him to get out of the way. Still an issue, but I agree with @Squirrel that the HBP's are not intentional. Retaliation for unintentional HBP is stupid because all it does is beget more retaliation against your own hitters. Just like when Delmon Young lost it on Jose Mijares back in 2009 because Mijares hit a guy intentionally for no good reason, and that resulted in Young taking a ball to the back next time through the order. Funderburk just missed IMHO. It might have looked like retaliation, but I don't think it was. It didn't make any sense for it to be retaliation since it came so much later, and after Funderburk had already pitched an inning plus another couple batters, and there was a wild pitch right after the HBP.
  19. bean5302
    I'd have my eyes on Snell and Ray. Robbie Ray threw 45 pitches in AAA on 6/23 so he could be back in MLB with 2-3 starts before the trade deadline. Snell is scheduled to make another rehab start in AAA today.
  20. bean5302
    I'm okay with Jax, Duran (let him throw fastballs, please), Alcala and hopefully Brock Stewart will be ready to go in a couple weeks. Move Varland into the 'pen as well with Dobnak and Boushley pitching more than well enough in the rotation at AAA. Zebby Matthews is ready for AAA. Gotta make some room.
  21. bean5302
    Yeah, I expect the Mariners to try and lock up Gilbert this offseason. I'm guessing they'll be floating like 5 years $100MM at him.
  22. bean5302
    I seriously wonder why MLB doesn't do a combine. Makes utterly no sense for a sport which is so dedicated to metrics at this point. Easy to set up the combine during the All Star Game week. It could be huge.
  23. bean5302
    If the Twins win the World Series this year, I guarantee there is more payroll flexibility. Payroll limit probably goes to $180MM next year as season ticket sales will skyrocket and ticket prices will increase a lot, too. Lots depends on how the Twins perform. I think it's pretty clear Joe Pohlad isn't going to be doing a lot of interviews in the near future without having gone through a lot of coaching, lol.
  24. bean5302
    Severino feels like a AAAA hitter to me. His wRC+ 120 overall performance in AAA is good, but not elite. I'm not sure why the Twins felt the need to add him to the 40 man last year. Sure, he had a bunch of home runs in a short stint with St. Paul, but his bat was only league average and he's far removed from being the 2B prospect he was years ago. Maybe the Twins can capitalize on this hot streak to get a small return for him this year? Really nice game out of Dobnak. Skipping him and Boushley to call up Festa, and after Varland has gotten some chances makes it pretty clear what the pecking order is. I think both Dobnak and Boushley look great as emergency depth guys at this point. Makes more sense to move Varland to the 'pen with that considered.
  25. bean5302
    I can't see any possibility of Lewis taking an incentive laden deal. The MLBPA would be against it, his agent would be against it, and the only party in a position to win is the Twins. MLB contracts do not have big escalators relative to the base contract because it guts the spirit of a guaranteed contract.
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