bean5302

With Keaschall, Fangraphs talked about him being borderline (like 50 other guys). At the time the Fangraphs update came out, Keaschell was hitting at an exceptional wRC+ 171 in A+. He's since been promoted to AA and continued to hit well, but the production has fallen off a bit to still very good wRC+ 140. It's inflated with a .397 BABIP, though. Fangraphs noted Keaschell will need to get his defense up quite a bit in CF to solidify his top 100 status. Raya is in nobody's top 100 anymore. He's probably not even top 200 at this point since he's still capped in the 50s for pitch count. MIRP is what he projects as now. Gonzalez is going to be questionable for anybody's mid season top 100 updates as he was already in that border group, but he's lost a huge chunk of the season with a back injury. Good news is he's begun a rehab assignment as of 4 days ago. He's going to be rusty AF, but hopefully, he's got a wire wheel and some Evaporust he can use None of the 3 should be viewed as solidly accepted top 100 prospects right now, and Keaschall is probably the only one with a fair chance at appearing on a list after the draft.

I'd take Matthews over him right now, TBH

I'm glad you've seen the light on Wallner's skills. Clearly gold glove 2B in his future.

The fact Caleb Boushley isn't on this list feels like an oversight. Festa has not been the best starter for the Saints this year, it's been Boushley, honestly. Boushley vs. Festa Season ERA 3.52 vs. 3.77 FIP 3.65 vs. 3.93 WHIP 1.03 vs. 1.29 HR/9 1.00 vs. 1.36 K% 22.1% vs. 35.1% BB% 3.2% vs. 9.7% K-BB% 18.9% vs. 25.4% Last 5 Games ERA 2.10 vs. 4.56 FIP 3.20 vs. 3.65 WHIP 0.90 vs. 1.05 HR/9 0.60 vs. 1.40 K% 21.4% vs. 34.3% BB% 3.6% vs. 4.9% Boushley is a journeyman MiLB soft-tosser in the mold of the Terry Ryan draftees and Rick Anderson students of old. The Kevin Slowey's of the world, if you will. Boushley's stuff rating from Statcast shows his slider and changeup are legitimate plus pitches while his curve is a tick below average. His 4 seam and sinker are well below average in terms of stuff. His location shows average overall, but let's be honest, he's going to need to be Kevin Slowey-ish to be successful at the MLB level. Pinpoint control required. In his favor, Boushly is also already on the 40 man. Festa is flashy with the big K's, but he's been inconsistent and victimized by the long ball this year. I don't think it's a problem to start the 24 year old's clock at this point, and he probably does have a higher upside than Boushley. It it was for a spot start, I'd take Boushley.

Signed out of Indy league where he was tearing it up. Undrafted so he doesn't have the MiLB experience. Tough to say how good he is, but the Twins bumped him to A+ already. Probably on the "prove it" fast track.

Tough to say. From a surplus value estimate $32MM. I'd imagine he'd probably bring back something similar to Dylan Cease (who had more team control and cost a lot less, but wasn't as reliably good), but probably a bit more. This isn't like when an elite pitcher with a lot of control is moved. Padres parted with 1 Top 100, plus their #7 and #8 prospects. I'd guess Gonzalez + Festa + Raya and maybe Kala'i Rosario or Keaschall. Something like that. If Arizona insisted on a Jenkins/Lee/Rodriquez component, probably drops them into 1 + 2 (10-20s) guys. Smaller package in numbers and quality in the back end of the deal.

Matthews, Morris, Nowlin, and Ohl have all seen pitch counts into the 80s pretty reliably at AA. Lewis is being stretched out after returning from injury. Raya is a long reliever masquerading as a starter. His limit is in the 50s, pretty much same as last year and the end of the previous year.

Lee has 14 games in AAA. Last 14 games, Wallner is better. If you add in the entirety of Brooks Lee's experience in AAA and go back that many games for Wallner, Wallner is better since Lee couldn't even hold his own last year.

Trades for quality depth are not uncommon. Margot and Farmer will be viewed as quality depth if they've both been hitting well since May. Both players would be on a pace for a 1.0 WAR type season if they keep hitting like they have been until after the break. 3 teams in the chase have -0.1 to 0.5 WAR at 3B right now 2 teams in the chase have -1.1 to 0.3 WAR at SS right now 4 teams in the chase have -1.6 to 0.5 WAR at 2B right now 8 teams in the chase have -0.8 to 0.4 WAR at RF right now 6 teams in the chase have -0.4 to 0.4 WAR in LF right now Not all those teams have a huge budget to add cost. There will be a market for Farmer and Margot if they're close to league average at the plate.

I'd be targeting Zac Gallen rather than Monty, who has been down on velo this year. Montgomery's last 3 starts have been pretty good, though, so there's reason to keep an eye on him and see. Gallen is a guy the Twins could hang on to another year.

Hmmmm... Trout's on the IL, right?

Not sure why you think Lee has the inside track to the roster ahead of Wallner... or honestly even Julien. Wallner is on the 40 man. Wallner's bat has been more productive than Lee's during Lee's tenure at AAA Wallner has a spot in the outfield.

Lopez 5.1 IP average Ryan 6.0 IP average Ober 5.1 IP average Paddack 5.1 IP average SWR 5.0 average The difference between the starters, other than Ryan, is pretty insignificant.

Varland is maybe a possibility since he only threw 2.1 innings on 6/23 while getting rocked in AAA. That'd leave him on 4 days rest for Paddack's previously scheduled 6/27 start. Caleb Boushley is my guess. He's already on the 40 and he owns a 2.10 ERA over his last 5 starts in AAA. He last pitched on 6/22 which gives him 5 days rest.

Paddack to IL with a pretty bad case of "suckitis." I have it on authority here's the conversation. Falvey: "Look, Chris, you've been infected with a pretty bad case of suckitis. We wanted to limit your innings a little anyway this year so you're either going to be moved to the 15 day IL or you're going to be moved to the bullpen for the rest of the year. Now, MLB's watching us like hawks with the Phantom IL thing so I need to hear it from you that the reason for your suckitis is arm fatigue. Or you can tell me you really like being a middle reliever." Paddack: "You know, now that you mention it, my arm has felt a little tired lately. I've been throwing my hardest to try to compensate so my velo isn't down. I probably need a skip a start or two." Falvey: "Great! That's exactly what I thought was happening. I'm so glad we were on the same page."

In what world is Sabato related to Rooker? They're not similar. MiLB Level, OPS Yr 1 - Rooker, Rk = .952, A+ = .917 Yr 1 - Sabato, A = .722, A+ = 1.015 Yr 2 - Rooker, AA = .798 Yr 2 - Sabato, A+ = .798, AA = .688 Yr 3 - Rooker, AAA = .933 Yr 3 - Sabato, AA = .759 Yr 4 - Rooker, MLB = .960 Yr 4 - Sabato, AA = .815 In 2021 Rooker got some sporadic plate appearances and Falvey decided he liked Larnach more so Rooker was cast off. Rooker's xwOBA was .341 in 2021, which was 40 points higher than his actual wOBA. Rooker's exit velocity, barrel rate, lack of glaring weaknesses against pitch types, etc made him a prime candidate to get regular plate appearances, but it seemed like he didn't get the opportunities after the Twins wrote him off. Sabato has been mediocre at the plate and slow to advance. Rooker hit well and kept hitting as he moved up quickly. For the record in 2023, Brent Rooker was not a 1 month wonder. April wRC+ 232 May wRC+ 77 Jun wRC+ 74 Jul wRC+ 144 Aug wRC+ 94 Sep wRC+ 159 After April wRC+ 109. Pretty far cry from "ugh" even if it wasn't super impressive. Also, he's hitting well again this year. I think it's fair to say the guy can hit.

I don't know why I bothered...

Even at their peak value, we I expect we probably have better options logjammed behind them. I don't see the Twins cutting bait on them while they're performing well (and they have been hitting well the past few weeks). I think Falvey will probably hang on to Farmer and Margot until the All Star Break and determine what to do at that point. It's only 3 weeks away. Farmer earns another 40 plate appearances, continues to hit at wRC+ 130 and his overall line climbs to wRC+ 85 Margot earns another 60 plate appearances, continues to hit at wRC+ 130 and his overal line climbs to wRC+ 96 Both Farmer and Margot can likely be moved at that point.

Just about all of them. Almost all the Twins position players start over Guardians position players. C - Jeffers* > Naylor 1B - Santana < Naylor* 2B - Castro* > Gimenez 3B - Lewis* > Ramirez SS - Correa* > Rocchio LF - Larnach < Kwan* CF - Buxton* > Freeman RF - Kepler* > Brennan DH - Miranda < Fry* SP1 - Lopez < Bibee* SP2 - Ryan* > Allen SP3 - Paddack* > McKenzie SP4 - Ober* > Lively SP5 - Woods Richardson* > Carrasco Cleveland's rotation ranks 28th of 30 teams in FIP. The Guardians have almost no advantages in position players and rotation, but they do have an excellent bullpen. Unfortunately for Cleveland, even the bullpen is due for major regression. Clease 0.72 ERA vs. 1.94 FIP Gaddis 1.51 ERA vs. 2.22 FIP Herrin 1.16 ERA vs. 2.53 FIP Sandin 3.49 ERA vs. 4.10 FIP Some of their pitchers have career ERA's better than their FIPs, but not to the extent showing so far. Their whole bullpen's ERA is 3.49 vs 3.89 FIP. When it comes to hitting the Guardians again show massive, generally unsustainable splits. No outs = wRC+ 92 1 out = wRC+ 125 2 outs = wRC+ 111 Empty = wRC+ 93 Runners on = wRC+ 131 RISP = wRC+ 139 The Guardians rank 20th in hard hit rate overall... Regression for the Guardians is expected across the board in almost every area. In theory, the Guardians could just keep lucking out or they could have turned into a different team. It happens. Like Royce Lewis last year. He wasn't hitting balls well when he came up, but he just kept getting on base anyway. But Lewis got better and better and better and soon his expected production was right in line with the actual production. To have that happen with a player is pretty unusual. To have that happen team wide is unheard of.

Nope. Say a catcher has 3 WAR because they have a wRC+ of 90 and good defense. If they had a - 2 WPA, it just means the catcher turns into 2024 Christian Vazquez at the plate whenever the team needs a meaningful plate appearance. It's about how that player directly impacted the outcome of games throughout the season. That's why a guy like Miguel Sano almost always had a lower WPA than his WAR. Important situation? He was an easy out, even if his WAR suggested he was valuable, like in 2019. WPA is just a fancier "clutch" stat IMHO.

Margot and Farmer are completely disposable. It's valuable only in the way that it allows the Twins to potentially move their contracts or trade other assets. Neither player is important to the team's success. For that matter, Carlos Santana is in the same boat, except he's provided legitimate value at this point.

WPA is a stat. It's useful when used in the right way. More or less a better indicator of how a player performs under pressure. Are they racking up their stats in garbage time or are they providing value when it matters? When you see a 3 WAR player with -2 WPA it tells you a lot about how that player actually performs when the team really needs them.

Sources Forbes for revenue and profit (operating income), Spotrac for salary.

SoS in the past. This is an topic about the Guardians, not about the Twins.

The bullpen is not going to save a team which is likely going to finish the season with a bottom 1/3rd lineup and the worst rotation in baseball. Just a matter of time.