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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I see you conveniently left out the Brewers, Mariners, Red Sox and Royals who are all over .500, legit playoff caliber teams, and the Twins are 10-4 against them. As with any cherry picking, it does give you a perspective. Miss the forest for the trees. The Twins have been a very up and down team, but the 17-2 (.895) record against any group of teams in MLB is pretty good. The worst team in that group (White Sox) have won 21 games. They're beating somebody... What I take away from the Twins' record is this. They're destroying bad teams, beating good teams and struggling against great teams.
  2. bean5302
    A team will have a place for Arraez as long as his OBP is .340+ as he'll have an above league average bat, guaranteed. Willi Castro .333 xwOBA Luis Arraez .333 xwOBA
  3. bean5302

    Delusions of Grandeur

    bean5302 commented on Twins GFP's blog entry in Twins GFP

    Dude, stop following the team. You'll be happier as a Yankees fan.
  4. bean5302
    Maintained 5 WAR? April 30th - 0.6 fWAR -> Projects to 3.3 fWAR season May 31st - 1.6 fWAR -> Projects to 3.9 fWAR season June 21st - 2.6 fWAR -> Projects to 5.5 fWAR season Castro ranks #37 in MLB in wOBA, but much lower at #62 in xwOBA. It's tough to say how the season will play out, but I think a 3.5 WAR, maybe even 4.0 WAR campaign from Castro is likely this year. His arbitration 3 salary will likely be $6MM. The supposition in the article is maybe the Twins should extend Willi Castro. What does an extension for Castro look like if he finishes the season at 4 WAR? He'll be headed into his age 28 season with free agency hitting at age 29. The Twins would be asking Castro to skip free agency. I think the Twins could persuade Castro to sign a new contract extension replacing his arbitration 3 2025 year at 7 years and $140MM or so. 2025 a28 = $8MM 2026 a29 = $24MM 2027 a30 = $24MM 2028 a31 = $22MM 2029 a32 = $22MM 2030 a33 = $20MM 2031 a34 = $20MM Assuming Castro goes 3 WAR this year, things look awfully different. Maybe a 4 year $80MM deal would be on the table to push back free agency. 2025-2028. If the Twins keep Castro at $6MM in arbitration for 2025 and he duplicates the 3 WAR performance, he's in for a payday as a free agent of maybe 4-5yrs $78-90MM. If Castro plays through this season at a 5 WAR pace, the Twins are going to need to pony up 7+ years at $210MM or so to have him push back free agency. Duplicating a 5 WAR performance would have Castro lined up for a Carlos Correa like payday. 7-10 years at $225-300MM, I'd guess. Castro's trade value increases with his production as well. If he's playing at a 5 WAR level, the haul he'd bring back would be massive.
  5. bean5302
    The Twins are higher in spending rank than Twins fans are in attendance rank. The evil Pohlads spent a great portion of team revenues last year than average. If the team has the revenues, the Pohlads have spent the money the last several years. The way fans on here lose their minds over only having the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central (it will be the highest at the end of the year) is crazy to me. The Pohlads aren't the greatest owners in the league, but I'd happily have them running the team instead of swapping with about 10 other teams' ownership groups. Orioles, Pirates, Athletics, Nationals, Guardians, Reds, Marlins, Rockies, White Sox, and Angels are all solidly under worse ownership. The Twins will likely fall a couple spots on this list this year to about league average if they don't add salary at the trade deadline, but it's hard to tell how revenues will shake out.
  6. bean5302
    It's so satisfying to see a complete game in the box score. Heck of a game by Ober! For those pointing to WPA, it's about how a player influences the likelihood of a game being won or lost. The Twins jumped out to a huge lead so no matter how well Ober pitched, it was unlikely to win or lose the game. Ober could have given up 9 runs on the Twins still would have won. Thus, low WPA because the great performance wasn't necessary to win.
  7. bean5302
    Radke was a borderline Hall of Famer at the end of his career considering his career was cut way short by injury (retired after playing his age 33 season with a broken shoulder, and he was still better than average). He has the 6th most career WAR while wearing a Minnesota Twins uniform of any player. Carew = 63.8 (HoF), Killebrew 60.4 (HoF), Mauer 55.2 (HoF), Puckett 51.1 (HoF), Blyleven (HoF), Radke 45.6, Oliva 43.0 (HoF) Radke is undoubtedly the most underappreciated player in Twins history, and he doesn't get nearly enough credit for his exceptional value on the field, but to go a step further, he also played a critical role in saving the Minnesota Twins from contraction. Ober's a fine #4 guy, but Radke was the best starting pitcher to wear a Twins uniform in the past 30 years not named Johan Santana. Radke was a true ace with 6 seasons over 4.3 WAR, and 3 at 5.8 or higher.
  8. bean5302
    I'm not defending Wallner. Stats are.
  9. bean5302
    The Win-Loss column only is too short sighted. The value Royce Lewis can bring to the Twins on a national popularity level is real. Popularity sells tickets. Selling tickets increases revenue. Higher revenue increases player salary. Higher salary can increase future competitiveness of the franchise.
  10. bean5302
    Add Jordan Montgomery to the list... even though the Diamondbacks are still at 38% to make the playoffs. Last 3 starts for Monty 2.70 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 4.04 xFIP. Not super excited about Scherzer. He's going to have to "prove it" on the field that he's healthy, especially considering him being a39 and having not pitched a single inning this year, and his injuries which threatened to keep him out of the playoffs last year as well.
  11. bean5302
    Carlos Santana had 0.4 fWAR coming into June, good for probably about 10th in the league. Behind Mountcastle, Naylor, Guerrero, Jr., Perez, etc so I suppose with a snapshot in time, Santana is the highest WAR atm, but that's subject to change quickly. Royce Lewis is one of the greatest player assets for the game today. There is no player I've seen in recent history who is more charismatic than Lewis, and what he's doing on the field... please stay healthy, is insane.
  12. bean5302
    He blew a save. Game was in Oakland so they didn't have to bat in the 9th. Officially recorded in the box score. Duran's issue is his 4 seam fastball hasn't been as valuable; however, that could just be a function of the Twins not calling for it. 50% (2022), 45% (2023), 38% (2024). Stuff+ grades Duran's fastball as good as ever. Maybe... just maaayyyybee, the Twins spreadsheets should allow Duran to throw it more.
  13. bean5302
    So about whipping boys/scapegoats Farmer and Margot. There's an easy way to visualize how they've been expected to perform at the plate over a rolling stretch of games. It takes into consideration how hard and far they've been hitting balls, how often they've struck out or taken walks. The rolling xwOBA on BaseballSavant.com, including all the good at bats you missed, and all the terrible at bats you remember. You can clearly see Margot and Farmer have trended upwards recently over a rolling 100 plate appearances. I've added names and date ranges so people can visualize how the rolling xwOBA works. If you were to pick a dot directly above the date ranges, that's what the dot (point) on the line would represent. Farmer struggled to end last year, and his struggles continued into this year, but you can also see how sporadic his plate appearances have been this year. Both Farmer and Margot are holding their own right now. There's no good reason to ditch them at the moment. For the record, I despised, and still despise both moves in keeping Farmer, and bringing in Margot. Have to hope for 1 of 2 things. 1) They both tank over the next few weeks (worse outcome) while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs so Margot and Farmer can be DFA'd and replaced. 2) The both keep hitting better so their season values creep up over league average (best outcome) and they can be moved while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs. This outcome is better since the Twins win more games. .
  14. bean5302
    Just typing something out doesn't make it true.
  15. bean5302
    Yeah, I wouldn't mind his 2.95 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.76 xFIP right now. But he cost $10MM this year!!!! Falvey needed that money for Margot and Farmer. At least Santana is holding his own at this point... not that Miranda wouldn't still be better.
  16. bean5302
    The negativity around Wallner is getting comical... Wallner last 5 games 57.1% K rate... lazy Wallner, he's broken again Wallner 5 games prior 8.3% K rate... ZOMG, Wallner is Luiz Arraez with power who takes walks! Wallner last 10 games 31.1% K rate. Expand your sample size...
  17. bean5302
    I didn't realize Matthews was throwing that hard. The more I think about it... the more I wouldn't be mad if the Twins moved Paddack to the bullpen and replaced him with Zebby Matthews since Festa just can't be consistent.
  18. bean5302
    I should note, I'd like the Twins to aim higher than Berrios. Like seemingly every year, the Twins need an ace... It's unusual to be able to acquire a pitcher like that with more than 1.5 years of team control remaining, but pretty unheard of to get them with more than 2.5 years left. Gray* (StL), Gallen (Ari), Flaherty (Det), Crochet (ChiW), Cease (SD), Snell (SF), Bassitt* (Tor), Berrios* (Tor) would all present some interest to me depending on how they pitch toward the trade deadline, assuming their teams were in the mood to sell, but I'd be more interested in the higher ceiling arms, and some track record would be nice. Guys who could potentially fill the role of staff ace. Gallen, especially, though he'd be expensive. *Player has Full or Partial NTC.
  19. bean5302
    I think a person would look at Berrios as a #2b/#3 pitcher. Same range as Lopez would normally be viewed, but Berrios' peripherals don't look good this year despite the results so there's certainly reason to be concerned there, though the velocity is still there. Maybe a 3.5 WAR guy. That values about $28MM per season x 2.5 years = $70MM AFV. Less the $18.7MM per season over the next two years (if Berrios doesn't tank, he'll opt out) so $37.4MM That's a net value of like $32.6MM. Wallner is probably 25MM on his own. Festa is probably about 15MM on his own. Gonzalez is probably about 10MM on his own. So 50MM in value in exchange for 37MM is a pretty big overpay for Berrios. Toronto is currently 5 GB of the Wildcard so they'll "probably" be sellers, but no guarantees. It would be interesting to have a workhorse like Berrios back.
  20. bean5302
    You literally just quoted yourself in that post, and then you proceeded to pick an argument with yourself. This isn't the first time you've done it recently...
  21. bean5302
    Of course my response was to toss in an overall production metric which takes a giant dump on the singular, irrelevant statistic used. They focused on a single, ultra elite, perfect cherry, complete with silk ribbon shipped in an swarovski crystal encrustsed gift box. Shipped with a certificate of authenticity and hand selected by a master cherry picking artist with a PHD in cherry picking. Their cherries are raised in above ground planters on rotisserie turntables so each cherry can experience the perfect and equal amount of sunlight. They water their cherries only with the finest spring water sourced locally from volcanic hot springs rich in the finest minerals, before being chilled with cool ocean breezes, and then combined with a secret combination of exotic whiskey mash composting fertilizer before being individually hand watered. Simply put, it is the world's finest cherry. It has no equal. Tell me. 3 HRs in 4 games is pretty good, yes? That's a 122 HR pace which would practically double the highest HR total in MLB history, yes? He had a .313 OBP over those horrible games. Would you want a hitter on the Twins who hits 122 HR's a year? Even if they struck out 350 times? Of course, neither of those stats are even remotely sustainable. They're both preposterous which is why 4 game sample sizes are ludicrous to try and evaluate a player. In this case, the numbers were cherry picked as described above. Choosing a a singular statistic designed specifically to support a position, especially when the overall picture does not reflect the statistic chosen.
  22. bean5302
    It starts with Paddack struggling yet again. Also, today was technically Duran's first blown save this year despite not being as elite as expected. I'd favor skipping Paddack's next start and moving him into the bullpen. I guess that probably brings up Varland in Paddack's rotation. I'd like to see Festa, but he just can't put together good starts reliably in AAA after being knocked around again yesterday so there's not really a good reason to believe he'd be much better than Varland at this point. The Twins desperately need a high end starter.
  23. bean5302
    Yeah, I'd hope if Julien was able to OPS .850 over a full season he'd be the starting 2B because he'd be a 6-7 WAR player and MVP candidate. (though I suppose not as valuable under Rocco Baldelli's gotta rest 'em all! pokemon mantra limiting a full time player to like 110 games) Julien is not going to OPS .850. More like .775 if he's able to make his adjustments, which... who knows if he can? He's as good as Jorge "Rock Hands" Polanco at 2B and OPS'ing .775 makes Julien a potential 3-4 WAR player. That's near All Star caliber performance. Brooks Lee's scouting profile suggests he's as poor a runner as Julien or worse so if you're looking for elite defense, I'd be a little surprised if Lee has the athleticism. I'd say Lee might have Brian Dozier defensive ceiling of average-ish.
  24. bean5302
    4 games (where his OPS was 1.200... LOL) you're like hand selecting premium cherries which have been picked
  25. bean5302
    ...when you shamelessly cherry pick your stats while talking about cherry picking being a problem.
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