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About this blog

I’ll be looking at a number of Twins-related topics from an analytics perspective 

Entries in this blog

Joe Mauer

A weekend in Cooperstown - Joe Mauer’s HOF induction

Over the past few days, there have been some great articles written about Mauer’s accomplishments - the batting titles, the MVP season, the records, and the magic he brought to life on a near-daily basis for 15 years. Today, he was deservingly enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame alongside Todd Helton, Adrian Beltré, and Manager Jim Leyland in Cooperstown, New York. I was fortunate enough to be present for it.  Being there was an amazing experience. That is likely true for a number o
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in Joe Mauer

3
History

The Twins All-Star All Decade Teams - Part 7 - The 2020s

Ok. We did it. On to the 2020s. This has been an interesting decade. We started with the pandemic-shortened season and empty stadiums. We have seen the introduction of larger bases, pitch clocks, shift limitations, and the Manfred Man. We have also had some pretty good teams, including one that broke our playoff losing streak.   As I mentioned in the first article in this series, we need to get a little creative here since the decade is only half over. As a result, I will double the WA
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in History

0
History

The Twins All-Star All Decade Teams - Part 6 - The 2010s

Welcome to part six of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 2010s. The 1960s are still reigning supreme. Can the 2010s all-decade team be the one to take the 60s down? The 2010s Twins Teams We are almost there! The 2010s featured the tail end of the Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer core, and the introduction of the Dozier/Be
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in History

0
History

The Twins All-Star All Decade Teams - Part 5 - The 2000s

Welcome to part five of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 2000s. Will they be the team to finally  overthrow the 1960s all-decade team? The 2000s Twins Teams At the turn of the century, the Twins were facing contraction. Rumors flew regarding plans to move the team. The Metrodome was one of the worst ballparks
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in History

1
History

The Twins All-Star All Decade Teams - Part 4 - The 1990s

Welcome to part four of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 1990s. Can they overthrow the 1960s all-decade team? The 1990s Twins Teams The 1990s! The start of my baseball memories. As a child, I recall staying up late each night during the 1991 World Series, and I fervently collected every Twins baseball card I c
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in History

0
History

The Twins All-Star All Decade Teams - Part 3 - The 1980s

Welcome to part three of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 1980s. Can they overthrow the 1960s all-decade team? The 1980s Twins Teams Oh, the 80s. We saw the introductions of franchise greats like Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, and others. In 1988, the Twins set a league record for making the fewest errors in a sea
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in History

0
History

The Twins All-Star All Decade Teams - Part 2 - The 1970s

Welcome to part two of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 1970s. Can they overthrow the 1960s all-decade team? The 1970s Twins Teams In the 1970s, we saw the tail ends of the careers of storied greats like Killebrew, Oliva, and Carew. The team swung trades for Butch Wynegar, Roy Smalley, and Larry Hisle. The 197
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in History

2
History

The Twins All-Star All Decade Teams - Part 1 - The 1960s

With the All-Star break upon us, and no meaningful baseball for almost a week, I thought it could be a fun exercise to look at Twins All-Stars through the years (and decades). More than that, I was curious to see which decade has produced the best players. So, over the next several days, I will be writing a series of articles about these all-decade teams, and then looking at which team is the best. For methodology, I will be looking at all Twins that made an All-Star team. Then, I will atte
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in History

12
Trade Deadline

The Ideal Trade Deadline Strategy - Go Big

We are currently less than three weeks away from the trade deadline. Fangraphs has the Twins with the second-best chance in the AL of making the playoffs, at 85%. With that in mind, I’m going to share what I believe to be the best strategy with a deep playoff run as the focus. To be realistic, I’m going to assume we won’t take on more than maybe $5M in additional salary. I also won’t decimate the farm system, or assume that we can swindle other teams. First, let’s look at the current state
David Festa

What went wrong for David Festa?

What went wrong for David Festa? David Festa —AKA The Slim Reaper — has had a lot of prospect helium over the past season and a half. Since being drafted in the 13th round in 2021, he has added a few MPH to his fastball, and greatly improved his secondary pitches to the point that he is now the 89th best prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com. He put up video game numbers in St Paul, setting strikeout records. He briefly walked too many guys, but seemed to solve that problem after a few
WPA

First half MOST valuable players by win probability

In my last article, we looked at the bottom-5 performers by WPA at the halfway point. Today, we will look at the top performers. We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As a reminder, as with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimplify things greatly, being worth .5 WPA is rou
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in WPA

0
WPA

First half LEAST valuable players by win probability added

As we have recently crossed the halfway point of the 2024 season, my next two posts will be taking a look at our most (and least) valuable players by win probability added (or subtracted). We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimpl
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in WPA

6
Little Papi

Introducing: Little Papi

Twins fans of a certain age still bear the wounds of Terry Ryan non-tendering David Ortiz prior to the 2003 season prior to his first year of arbitration. Ryan was infamous for this — saving ownership money even when he didn’t have that specific mandate. After the non-tender, Ortiz, of course, went on to become Big Papi. He led the Red Sox to multiple World Series titles. Over his career, he was a 10x All-Star, and won Silver Slugger at DH no fewer than 6 times. He’s in the Hall of Fame, and wen
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in Little Papi

1
Royce Lewis

Is Royce Lewis really THIS good?

Is Royce Lewis for real? If you were to survey every Twins fan around their favorite current player, Royce Lewis would likely be near the top - and for good reason. So far this season, Royce Lewis has been doing very Royce Lewis things - being a spark plug for the offense, hitting a ton of bombs, and generally doing everything right. On a nearly daily basis, he is being recognized on the TV and radio broadcasts for doing things that just aren’t done. For example, he’s been hitting HRs at a
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in Royce Lewis

2
Uniforms

Thoughts on every team's City Connect looks - a (slightly snarky) deep dive

Last Friday, the Twins were the last team to unveil their City Connect jerseys. You’ve probably seen them by now - at least if you are able to watch games on TV. The Ripple Effect draws inspiration from the state’s 10,000 lakes and the loon. The new look has been polarizing, to say the least, as most City Connect offerings have been. I for one am a fan, as I get some serious Fallout Vault Dweller vibes from the bright blue and yellow combination. My only suggestion would be to have white pants t
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in Uniforms

4
Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran's pitching effectiveness - a deep dive

A month ago, Cody Christie wrote a great article around Jhoan Duran’s decreased velocity, and how that has impacted his pitch mix changes. A couple findings from that article were that: His velocity is down roughly 1.2 MPH on every pitch compared to 2023, through mid-May. He’s been throwing his heater much less, and relying on his off-speed offerings more. At that time, he had decreased his fastball usage from 45% last year, to 34.3% this year through mid-May. Well, this trend
Eric Blonigen

Eric Blonigen in Jhoan Duran

3
Draft picks and what-ifs

The guys the Twins drafted but didn't sign - a deep dive

We are now less than a month from the Rule-4 draft. National and local writers have started publishing deep-dives of mock drafts, player profiles, and general prognostication. This article is not that. Instead, we will be doing a deep-dive into drafts past. The Twins, like any pro baseball team, have had their share of swings and misses in the draft. As fans, we feel great about guys like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins. At the same time, we lament guys like Keoni Cavaco, Aaron
Umpire scorecards

A deep dive into umpire accuracy and our standings

Every sports fan is likely to believe the umps are biased against their team, but there have been several games lately that make it seem like the fates are working against the Twins. Let's look at some examples. In last night's game against the Pirates, assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. As it turns out, he was right to be frustrated, as HP ump Paul Clemons called a pitch to Correa a strike when it was a ball. Later in the inning, with bases load
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