A deep dive into umpire accuracy and our standings
Twins Video
Every sports fan is likely to believe the umps are biased against their team, but there have been several games lately that make it seem like the fates are working against the Twins. Let's look at some examples.
In last night's game against the Pirates, assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. As it turns out, he was right to be frustrated, as HP ump Paul Clemons called a pitch to Correa a strike when it was a ball. Later in the inning, with bases loaded, a ball to Kepler was called a strike, impacting the shape of the plate appearance, the inning, and the game, as the Twins were unable to score a run. After the game, the folks at umpirescorecards.com released their scorecard, and Pittsburgh was awarded 1.17 runs in their favor.
During the Yankees series, there were several questionable calls and most seemed to go against the Twins. That seems to be a trend on the season. Let's take a deeper dive into the data
So far this season, if all pitches had been called correctly, the Twins should have scored an additional 5.22 runs. Their main divisional opponent, the Guardians, should have scored 17.82 FEWER runs than they have. Overall, that 23 run differential means that the two teams should be much closer in the standings than they are. However, not all runs are created equal. So, I looked at the ump scorecards for each game that was decided by two of fewer runs to understand exactly what impact the umpires have had on the two teams results.
For starters, there have been two head-to-head games that went Cleveland's favor that actually should have been Twins victories. Here are the scorecards for the 4/6 and 5/17 games. 
There have been other examples of Twins losses that the outcome should have been wins, or at least may have ended differently. On 4/14 against the Tigers, the final score was 3-4 Tigers, but they scored 1.32 additional runs due to ball and strike calls.
On 4/19, also against the Tigers, the 4-5 loss was in part decided by the extra .88 runs awarded to the Tigers.
That's four losses directly attributed to incorrect ball and strike calls.
There was also a single example of the Twins recording a win that they may not have earned. On 4/23, against the White Sox, the 6-5 score was aided by an extra run in our favor.
Net-net, this likely means we should have at least three more wins than we actually do.
Earlier, I mentioned Cleveland's 17.82 surplus runs. According to umpirescorecards.com, they lead all of baseball in favorable calls. How has this impacted their win total? In addition to the two-game swing based on the head-to-head matchups discussed earlier, they have had several one-run victories where they scored a half-run due to ball and strike calls. While these may still have ended in Cleveland wins, the outcome may have been different on 4/18, 5/6, 6/1, and 6/7.
Perhaps more importantly for Cleveland, they have only had a single game this season that calls went against them in a meaningful way - 4/13 against the Yankees. With a final score of 3-2 Yankees, the evil empire was granted an extra .55 runs.
Assuming that Cleveland would have won half those games anyway, it's fair to think their actual win total should be four wins less than reality.
What's the impact of all this? Well, entering play on 6/8/24, Cleveland is 40-22 and the Twins are 33-30. Based on expected win totals were balls and strikes called accurately and consistently, the ACTUAL win/loss records should be Cleveland at 36-26, and the Twins at...36-27. That reality would feel much different for fans than the one we are living. The good news is we are well-positioned the rest of the way, with one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball. Cleveland has one of the hardest. With some fair umpires, we just might be able to run away with the division.
Thoughts?










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