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A deep dive into umpire accuracy and our standings


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Every sports fan is likely to believe the umps are biased against their team, but there have been several games lately that make it seem like the fates are working against the Twins. Let's look at some examples.

In last night's game against the Pirates, assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. As it turns out, he was right to be frustrated, as HP ump Paul Clemons called a pitch to Correa a strike when it was a ball. Later in the inning, with bases loaded, a ball to Kepler was called a strike, impacting the shape of the plate appearance, the inning, and the game, as the Twins were unable to score a run. After the game, the folks at umpirescorecards.com released their scorecard, and Pittsburgh was awarded 1.17 runs in their favor.

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During the Yankees series, there were several questionable calls and most seemed to go against the Twins. That seems to be a trend on the season. Let's take a deeper dive into the data

So far this season, if all pitches had been called correctly, the Twins should have scored an additional 5.22 runs. Their main divisional opponent, the Guardians, should have scored 17.82 FEWER runs than they have. Overall, that 23 run differential means that the two teams should be much closer in the standings than they are. However, not all runs are created equal. So, I looked at the ump scorecards for each game that was decided by two of fewer runs to understand exactly what impact the umpires have had on the two teams results.

For starters, there have been two head-to-head games that went Cleveland's favor that actually should have been Twins victories. Here are the scorecards for the 4/6 and 5/17 games.  image.jpeg.6c6fb2324afd8471a76a260fbbcf8ab8.jpegimage.jpeg.d5cb11132111d64ed95b4eeba6bcfb52.jpeg

There have been other examples of Twins losses that the outcome should have been wins, or at least may have ended differently. On 4/14 against the Tigers, the final score was 3-4 Tigers, but they scored 1.32 additional runs due to ball and strike calls.image.jpeg.4c78dd40a209c30b3383cdc8cf5a22b2.jpeg

 

On 4/19, also against the Tigers, the 4-5 loss was in part decided by the extra .88 runs awarded to the Tigers. 

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That's four losses directly attributed to incorrect ball and strike calls.

There was also a single example of the Twins recording a win that they may not have earned. On 4/23, against the White Sox, the 6-5 score was aided by an extra run in our favor.

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Net-net, this likely means we should have at least three more wins than we actually do. 

Earlier, I mentioned Cleveland's 17.82 surplus runs. According to umpirescorecards.com, they lead all of baseball in favorable calls. How has this impacted their win total? In addition to the two-game swing based on the head-to-head matchups discussed earlier, they have had several one-run victories where they scored a half-run due to ball and strike calls. While these may still have ended in Cleveland wins, the outcome may have been different on 4/18, 5/6, 6/1, and 6/7.

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Perhaps more importantly for Cleveland, they have only had a single game this season that calls went against them in a meaningful way - 4/13 against the Yankees. With a final score of 3-2 Yankees, the evil empire was granted an extra .55 runs.

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Assuming that Cleveland would have won half those games anyway, it's fair to think their actual win total should be four wins less than reality.

What's the impact of all this? Well, entering play on 6/8/24, Cleveland is 40-22 and the Twins are 33-30. Based on expected win totals were balls and strikes called accurately and consistently, the ACTUAL win/loss records should be Cleveland at 36-26, and the Twins at...36-27. That reality would feel much different for fans than the one we are living. The good news is we are well-positioned the rest of the way, with one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball. Cleveland has one of the hardest. With some fair umpires, we just might be able to run away with the division.

Thoughts?

9 Comments


Recommended Comments

Peter

Posted

Agreed-but only if umpires call fair game both ways-but!!! Within the next 2-3 years it’s going to be AI/robotic. Time to get rid of the umpires once and for all!

Patzky

Posted

If you subscribe to the fact that the horrible umpiring in the Yankees series 'broke' or maybe temporarily 'froze' the Twins bats you could also see the same result on the Yankees hitters. Who indeed struggled against the Dodgers.

 

When your earth is tilted it takes a minute to get your bearings. Takes the Twins a lot longer than the Yanks.

Doctor Gast

Posted

Thanks Eric, for the time & info you put into this article. I love your article. giving credence to the fact that umps are human that lean towards bias, fan influence & just plan error. Baseball isn't a game of inches, it's a game of mms. Although I agree that balls & strike cannot be argued for the continuity of the game but that doesn't take away the importance of getting balls & strikes correct. There are teams that are heavily favored (NYY) which pitchers are forced to serve up meatballs. & teams that are heavily penalized (MN). 

It's bad enough that NYY has the money to sign & pay big name players. Steal away coaches from smaller markets & given "goldilocks" balls. Even all of this we believe if we play harder we can overcome these hinderances. But IMO the unfairness of the calling balls & strikes is the last straw. These miscalls are very disheartening to the teams & fans. IMO MLB don't want to change because it benefits some big teams & they want us to believe that accepting this umps imperfect favoritism leads to baseball romanticism.

The adoption of the electronic balls & strikes doesn't take anything away from the game except biased unfairness. I advocate against challenging of the balls & strikes because challenging about 10+ legit incorrect miscalls & X amount of correct calls would take away from the game. The robo ump would be seamless.  Plus it'd stop the demonization of human umpires, which IMO most umps would be in favor of. We still need umps.

mnfireman

Posted

So, are we going to allow MLB to stop at the electronic strike zone when so many judgment calls can go either way? Check swings and fair/foul calls on balls hit directly over the base have led to at least as many game changing events as missed ball or strike calls, but can not be challenged under the current replay system, but foul tips and hit by pitches can.

Old Twins Cap

Posted

This is brilliant.  Thanks for doing this.

We will never know what would have happened to Kepler's AB with the bases loaded, but, a 3-1 count compared to 2-2 is big.  Potentially huge, and game-changing.

The real issue here is that pitching is getting better, much better.  And hitters need some level of consistency in order to have a chance.  When the hitter can't say for sure if a ball is going to be called a strike, they literally have no chance, and the result is that the integrity of the game is being left on the side of the road.

No integrity equals no interest for me, and the game is sinking in a number of ways.  Baseball is going down the tubes.

Calling balls and strikes is near impossible right now.

PatG

Posted

For us old guys, I believe this inequity has been happening for years if not decades.....

Like I said, MLB loves the Yankees

Eris

Posted

This is a very good article. Just curious how they calculate a run or lack thereof because of a missed call. Are they just taking the MLB average expected run differential between 2 outcomes. 

Trov

Posted

I cannot wait until MLB feels like they have the right robo ump system, and they allow all calls to be reviewed.  Yesterday Twins got a run because none of the umps called Buck's ball a foul ball but left it a passed ball.  It did help us get a win, but the call should have been made right.  Heck, there should have been a 5th ump, a replay ump, that can just buzz down say wrong call it was clearly a foul ball.  

With the ball's and strikes, the score cards the writer put up is just general in nature too on the difference in run expediency, but each call of a ball or strike has huge impact on the game.  Just take a 2-0 pitch with bases loaded 2 out.  If count goes to 3-0 that is huge advantage hitter, but if it goes 2-1 the hitter loses that huge advantage and the pitcher still has room to nibble if needed.  That call will have little run expediency difference but could have huge impact.  Even like early 2 out 3-0 strike call, when should be a walk.  Hitter then eventually gets out.  The walk would have had little run expediency difference but you have no clue what the next hitter would have done, or how many more pitches the pitcher would throw. 

How about an 0-2 pitch that would have ended the inning, but instead is called a ball, the hitter drags out the at bat running up a pitch count, and maybe even next couple of guys reach base.  Even if a run does not score, the impact was there with more pitches thrown. 

Point is, every missed ball and strike will have impact on the game, and when the league can get a consistent right call, they should.  I hate the human element of the game.  The game has rules, and umpire bias or fact that calling a 90 plus MPH pitch that moves a ton is almost impossible to get right and the close calls are just guesses anyways.  

h2oface

Posted

"What's the impact of all this? Well, entering play on 6/8/24, Cleveland is 40-22 and the Twins are 33-30. Based on expected win totals were balls and strikes called accurately and consistently, the ACTUAL win/loss records should be Cleveland at 36-26, and the Twins at...36-27. That reality would feel much different for fans than the one we are living. The good news is we are well-positioned the rest of the way, with one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball. Cleveland has one of the hardest. With some fair umpires, we just might be able to run away with the division."

Wow! Great article! This one is saved and bookmarked.

Well, there will always be guys that like to dress up in the umpire outfit and wield the power that comes with it. They love to stay involved and be at the game and on the field, and even get paid handsomely. They want to be good. I truly believe that. Most are. Well, good as they can be, which is always a best guess. They never had to really be accountable, as they proudly double down no mater what with the authority and conviction. Time is far overdue. I really think they want to do the job better, but it is not possible. They guess better than I could, probably, and have a lot more practice. I was never very good at it, even at the low levels I got involved and studied the rules, passed the test, dressed up, and had a power tripping go at it. A lot of bias is subconscious. Many racial studies deal with it. Time to properly assign the human element to the players - the correct calls for the pitchers and batters perfect, ever so close, pitches and takes - the ones they deserve the most because of their special talents - and showcase the players instead of the umpires that are affecting the outcome of every game ever played. Past time...... way past time.....

Yes, there is still all the other ways umpires can and will impact the game, and we need umpires for for sure, but this will be the most major step ever to eliminate perhaps the most of the impact.

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