Twins 5, Brewers 4: Twins Out-Gas Gasser, Hold On To Salvage Series

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K (77 Pitches, 46 Strikes, 59.7%)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (7)
Top 3 WPA: Kody Clemens (0.24), Justin Topa (0.17), Ryan Jeffers (0.17)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

Injuries have decimated the Twins of late, with Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley all missing time recently. They entered Sunday having lost two consecutive one run games against the Brewers featuring good pitching and anemic hitting with runners in scoring position.

Fortunately, the Twins were starting the streaking Bailey Ober, who pitched a "Maddux" his last time out against the Marlins. I'd go as far as to call it a Carlos Silva, since his pitch count in completing the shutout was less than 90 pitches, with the Maddux criteria having the threshold of 100. In any case, Ober has been great this year, with his change-up somehow getting even better as his fastball velocity has settled into the upper 80's at best.

Today Ober was a little floaty with his command and had to fight hard to keep the Brewers from putting up crooked numbers against him. He began the second inning by allowing a walk, double, fly out and another walk before getting the next two hitters on lineouts. 

He began the fourth by allowing a fly out, then a rocket home run to Garrett Mitchell (115.5 MPH). Joey Ortiz then rifled a double past Austin Martin in right. Again, Ober righted the ship, striking out David Hamilton and getting the electric Jackson Chourio to pop out.

Meanwhile the Twins were making lefty Robert Gasser work. Austin Martin led off the first with a walk, and with two outs Kody Clemens doubled him home. After Luke Keaschall walked, Victor Caratini was hit by a pitch, loading the bases for Royce Lewis. That is no longer as exciting as it once was, and despite making Gasser throw ten pitches to him, never seemed close to squaring anything up and ended up striking out on a high change-up. Gasser needed 40 pitches to complete the frame but was allowed to continue.

Gasser mostly held it together, his only additional blemish occurring in the third. Ryan Jeffers singled to lead off the inning, and Clemens got yet another extra base hit off a lefty, launching just over the head of Chourio in left. Chourio struggled to collect it and the relay from shortstop Joey Ortiz was pretty terrible, allowing both Jeffers and Clemens to score.

The fifth began with consecutive great defensive plays from Lewis and Martin. Good thing, too, because Christian Yelich followed with a moonshot off an Ober change-up to tie the game at three.

Although that would be Ober's last inning, he left in line for the win thanks to the continued heroics of Jeffers. The catcher/DH got all of a Grant Anderson sweeper and hit it 389 feet to retake the lead.

The teams traded zeroes for a few innings before Jake Bauers led off the eighth inning with a double off of Taylor Rogers. After retiring Sal Frelick without Bauers advancing, Justin Topa was brought in, and despite being Justin Topa, got a couple of grounders to escape the jam.

The Brewers would rue that missed opportunity to tie the game. Keaschall led off the bottom of the eighth with a fly ball to deep center that Chourio appeared to catch up to, but couldn't close his glove on it, allowing Keaschall to reach third with a leadoff triple. Caratini then popped a ball up to shallow left, but Keaschall challenged the arm of Bauers and scored easily, stretching the lead to two.

That was key, because Luis Garcia and his 9.00 ERA would come on to close the game. He got Chourio to start the frame, but walked Turang and allowed an infield hit to Contreras. He got Yelich to swing through three consecutive pitches for the second out, but the hot-hitting Bauers rifled a single past Clemens at first to cut the lead to one. Garcia then got ahead of Frelick 0-2 before retiring him on a pop-up to the catcher Caratini.

Things I'm Tracking:

-Clemens briefly got his OPS over .800 after his second double of the game. Considering his slow start and unimpressive track record prior to last year's serviceable contributions, it was fair to question if the 30 year-old would revert to being Denny Hocking with late career Joey Gallo swing outcomes rather than reaching his upside of, I don't know, David Murphy? He's been a good find, and if he keeps his OPS over .750 he might even have some trade value this summer.

-I was thinking Jeffers might secure a three year, 45M sort of contract this offseason, and not from the Twins. Now it's looking more like 75-80M over four years and it still won't be from the Twins. Hopefully he stays healthy and secures said bag.

-Lewis couldn't lay off the high fastball today and struck out three times. If he doesn't figure it out over the summer he might not be offered a contract this offseason. If you think Lewis gives weird quotes now, imagine what he would say in that scenario.

-I see the vision with Andrew Morris. He got Anthony Banda out of a jam in the sixth by retiring Chourio on a weak chopper, than buzz-sawed through Brice Turang and William Contreras in the seventh before giving way to Taylor Rogers. He threw mainly fastballs, hit 97 and located well.

What’s Next:
The Twins welcome the Houston Astros to Target Field for a three game set. Tatsuya Imai (1-1, 9.24 ERA) will pitch the opener Monday against a pitcher-yet-to-be-determined in what was Simeon Woods Richardson's spot. The Astros have struggled this year as their dynastic roster continues to wither under the pressures of aging and injuries.

Postgame Interviews:

Coming soon

Bullpen Usage Chart: