We are now less than a month from the Rule-4 draft. National and local writers have started publishing deep-dives of mock drafts, player profiles, and general prognostication.

This article is not that. Instead, we will be doing a deep-dive into drafts past. The Twins, like any pro baseball team, have had their share of swings and misses in the draft. As fans, we feel great about guys like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins. At the same time, we lament guys like Keoni Cavaco, Aaron Sabato, Tyler Jay, and more. Much ink has been spilled on all those guys right here on Twinsdaily. But how about the guys we drafted and DIDN’T sign? That’s what we are digging into today. I examined every draft class since the Twins moved from Washington in 1965, and looked at every player we didn’t sign. Then, I eliminated anyone who didn’t sign that accumulated less than 5 career bWAR.

I will be breaking unsigned draft picks into a few tiers:

1. What could have been? These guys could potentially have altered the franchise had they signed.
2. Solid. These guys could have had roles on some good teams, and could have made some bad teams better.
3. Just a guy. These players may have been fun or may have displaced someone who had no business on a Major League roster. Some had one good year, while others were role players for a long time.
4. Notoriety. These guys may not have had a good or long career, but they went on to do something else in baseball that’s worth talking about. Spoiler: in both cases, they were involved in the Astros cheating scandal.

Before we dig in, I do understand that EVERY team consistently attempts to sign HS players who are planning on going to College. Every team’s fans could build a list just like this one. However, what is baseball if not a chance to think about what could be? As a lifelong Twins fan, sometimes that dreaming is what keeps the fandom palatable. Read on for the deep dive!

Tier One - What could have been? These guys could have done a lot for the team, potentially altering the shape of the franchise, or leading to different outcomes some years.

George Springer - He was originally drafted by the Twins out of high school in the 48th round of the 2008 draft. Supposedly, Springer strongly considered signing with the Twins, but felt he wasn’t ready for pro baseball yet. He went to college, and was drafted by Houston in the 1st round of the 2011 draft. He finished 8th for AL ROY in 2014. He has won a Silver Slugger twice, in 2017 and 2019. He has received MVP votes in 2017, 2019, and 2020. Across his career, he has been 25% above league average as a hitter, has been worth 36.4 bWAR, and has a good shot to at least make it to the theoretical “Hall of Very Good”. His impact bat would have been felt in some of the late Terry Ryan years, and it would have made the Bomba Squad even better. He would have been a clear upgrade over guys like Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Robbie Grossman.

J.D. Martinez - The Twins drafted Martinez in the 36th round of the 2006 draft. He didn’t sign, and the Astros drafted and signed him in 2009. Martinez has been worth 30.7 bWAR so far in his career even though he has been limited to COF and DH. He won the 2018 WS with the Red Sox. He has been a 3x Silver Slugger, in 2015 and 2018 (at two different positions). He has received MVP votes in three different seasons - 2015, 2018, 2019. He has also been a 6x All-star. Over his career, he has had an OPS+ of 132. Obviously, if the Twins would have signed (and kept) him, the opportunity cost would likely have been NOT signing other marquee players such as Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, or Carlos Correa. However, it’s fun to think about him manning LF or DH over the past several seasons.

J.J. Putz - The Twins drafted Putz in the 17th round of the 1998 draft. He eventually signed with Seattle in the 6th round of the 1999 draft. As a reliever, I hesitate to put him in this group. However, he was quite good for the majority of his career, and would have given a late-inning boost to a lot of Twins teams. He was an All-star in 2013, and received down-ballot MVP votes. He finished his career with a 138 ERA+, and was worth 13.1 bWAR as a relief pitcher. He would have looked really good in a Twins uniform alongside all-time great closers Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins, and he would have immediately supplanted guys like Jon Rauch and Matt Capps as closer, and would have eliminated the impact of the trades the Twins made to get them. He also could have helped some playoff Twins teams advance (or at least not get swept out).

Steve Garvey - He was drafted by the Twins in 1966, in the 3rd round. Two years later, the Dodgers drafted him in the 1st round and he signed. He played 19 seasons, 14 with the Dodgers, then 5 with the Padres. Over his career, he was a 10x All-star, a 4x Gold Glove winner, and 1974 MVP. He also received down ballot MVP votes 8 additional times, and won a World Series with the ’81 Dodgers. He also had 6 seasons with 200 or more hits, finishing his career with 2599.His peak was from 1974-1980. Who played the corner infield for the Twins? Guys like Ron Jackson and Mike Cubbage. I wasn’t alive for those teams, but it seems like a pretty clear upgrade.

Bret Boone - Remember Bret Boone? The Twins did eventually sign him in 2005, where he had 58 sub-replacement PAs and then was released and subsequently retired. But before that? He was very good for a very long time, accumulating 22.8 bWAR. The Twins drafted him way back in 1987, in the 28th round. Three years later, Seattle drafted him in the 5th and signed him. Bret was a 3x All-star, in 1998, 2001, and 2003. He also won Gold Glove 4 times, in 1998, 2001, 2002, and 2003 and Silver Slugger in 2001 and 2003. He received down ballot MPV votes in 1994, 2001, and 2003. Who manned second base during his peak? Chuck Knoblach for the first handful of years, who was great. After he was traded to NY, Luis Rivas took over and Boone would have been a clear upgrade.

Jason Varitek - Going back to 1993, the Twins drafted Varitek in the 1st round. A Boras client, he was advised to go back to college for his senior year in order to find a more favorable situation. Seattle drafted and signed him the following year, and he (eventually) went on to help the Red Sox break the curse of the Bambino. Over the course of his catching career, he was a 3x All-star, twice won the World Series, won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and was one of only four team captains in Red Sox history. He was worth 24 bWAR. In hindsight, even when thinking about a player of Varitek’s caliber, his catching career overlapped guys like Terry Steinbach, A.J. Pierzynski, and Joe Mauer. Somewhat strangely, his value very closely matched theirs year by year.

Tier Two - Solid. These guys were regulars, and would have been better options than some the Twins were fielding on a nightly basis.

Tim Belcher - Drafted by the Twins 1st overall in 1983, he failed to sign. Oof. He signed, again in the 1st round, a year later by the Yankees. The SP won a World Series with the ’88 Dodgers, and accumulated 26 bWAR, and would have beat out other middling pitchers like Mark Guthrie, Joe Niekro, Pat Mahomes, Freddie Tolivar, Carlos Pulido, and (starter) Eddie Guardado. He was involved in multiple altercations - once with a cameraman, once with Chan-Ho Park. He went on to become a special assistant to the Cleveland front office

Del Unser - The Twins 2nd round pick in 1965, he signed a year later with the (new) Washington Senators and went on to win a World Series with the Phillies in 1980. He accumulated 16.7 bWAR. At CF and 1B, he scattered three good seasons in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s, but was otherwise forgettable. He would likely have lost his starting job halfway through his career.

Kolten Wong - Drafted by the Twins in the 16th round in 2008, he signed after college, going in the first round to STL. He finished third in the 2014 AL ROY voting. Wong has been a 2x Gold Glove winner. The 2nd baseman has been worth 22 bWAR so far, and would have been a valuable player, but would have interfered with some combo of Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, and Eduardo Escobar in his path to playing time.

Aaron Sele - Sele was drafted in ’88 in the 37th round, signing with the Red Sox after being drafted in the 1st round in ’91. He finished 3rd in AL RoY balloting in 1993, was a 2x AS in 1998 and 2000, and finished 5th for the AL Cy Young in 1999. Across a 15 year career, he was an exactly league average pitcher, although he was solidly above average for the first half of his career. He accumulated 20.1 bWAR and would have beaten out guys like Frankie Rodriguez, Mike Morgan, Mike Lincoln, and Sean Bergman. Remember any of them? Me neither. They were largely replacement level or worse as members of the Twins rotation.

Tyler Anderson - The Twins drafted Anderson in 2008 in the 50th round. Three years later, Colorado took him in the 1st. He made the 2022 All-star team with the Dodgers. He has amassed 15.3 bWAR so far, and pitched to a 106 ERA+. While not a frontline arm, Anderson would have prevented some innings from such luminaries as Matt Shoemaker.

Rick Burleson - He was drafted in the 8th round of the summer draft in 1970, then taken months later in the supplemental winter draft in the 1st round by Boston. As a shortstop, he finished 4th in the 1974 ROY balloting, received MVP votes in 4 different seasons, was a 4x All-star, and won the Silver Slugger in 1981. He also won a gold glove in 1979 at SS. In his career, he was worth 22.9 bWAR. He would have been clearly better than Ron Washington and Danny Thompson, but his career also intersected with Roy Smalley and Greg Gagne, so had he signed with the Twins, it might have been complicated, or he may have needed to shift positions.

Al Hrabosky - Drafted by the Twins in 1967 in the 11th round, and signing two years later in the 1st round with the Cardinals. Al went by the moniker “The Mad Hungarian” due to his eccentric pitching routines designed to intimidate batters. As a relief pitcher, Al received both down-ballot Cy Young and MVP votes in 1974 and 1975, during the latter of which he was the NL Saves leader. During his peak, the Twins fielded largely middling teams, so he would not have moved the needle. However, he would have added some fun. He has been a color commentator for the Cardinals since 1985.

Tier Three - Just guys. These guys typically had long major-league careers, but they weren’t necessarily better than other in house options. Might they have changed some outcomes? Sure.

Travis Lee - He was the 2nd overall pick of the ’96 draft, but failed to sign a contract within 15 days so he became a free agent. Arizona signed him to a 4/$10M deal. He was worth 7.3 bWAR.

Steve Pearce - Drafted in the 45th round of the 2003 draft, he signed with Boston in the 10th a year later. He had one All-Star caliber season in 2014, but was not an All-star that year. In 2018, he won a WS with Boston, and was the WS MVP. Overall, he was just a guy, worth 9.8 bWAR. His competition throughout his peak would have been guys like Mauer, Escobar, Rosario, and Dozier, all of whom were better.

Adam Lind - Drafted by the Twins in 2002 and signed by the Blue Jays in 2004, he was the 2009 Silver Slugger and Edgar Martinez award winner. He was worth 12.7 bWAR

Jerry Reed - This one is a rare case of a player failing to sign out of high school, then being drafted LOWER after college, dropping from the 11th round in 1973, to signing in the 22nd with the Phillies in 1977. He pitched in 238 major-league games, mostly in relief, and retired worth 5 bWAR.

Pete Falcone - He was a back-of-the-rotation SP who finished his career with a 91 ERA+, and retired worth 8.9 bWAR. Drafted by the Twins in 1972 and signed a year later by the Giants.

Yonder Alonso - Drafted in the 16th round in 2005, he went 7th overall in 2008 to the Reds. He finished 6th in the 2012 AL ROY voting. He was a 2017 AS with Oakland. He has hit as a 103 OPS+ player. Signing him wouldn’t have worked out, as he would have blocked Joe Mauer's transition to 1B, and Mauer was clearly better. He has been worth 8.1 bWAR.

Paul Maholm - Just a guy. He was a back-of-the-rotation SP who finished his career with a 95 ERA+, accumulating11.9 bWAR. After failing to sign in the 17th round in 2000, Pittsburgh signed him in 2003 in the 1st round

Brian Anderson - Drafted in the 20th round in 2011, and signed by Miami in the 3rd in 2014. He finished 4th in the 2018 AL ROY balloting He’s been a roughly league-average hitter, with a 101 OPS+ across his career so far, although he’s trending downwards. He has been worth 9.8 bWAR so far. If the Twins had signed him, it may have made the Josh Donaldson signing unnecessary, and he also could have filled Gio Urshela’s shoes.

Eric Show - Drafted by the Twins in 1974, he signed four years later by the Padres. While Eric holds the Padres’ record for most career wins, with 100, his career was up and down, with a slightly-below-average 99 ERA+, and was worth 15.6 bWAR. He was a solid #2 starter for a while, but went through some personal problems, and he died of a drug overdose at 37.

Gary Mathews Jr - Drafted in the 38th round in 1992, he signed in 1993 with the Padres after being drafted in the 13th round. He played 12 years in the majors, with below-average offense, but solid defense. He accumulated 14.2 bWAR, and was implicated in the Mitchell Report on steroid use in baseball. I guess if the Twins had signed him, he might have supplanted Terry Tiffee at the end of his career, but otherwise, was largely worse than the options the Twins had available to them.

Brian Lawrence - The Twins drafted him in 1994, in the 39th round. In 1998, the Padres signed him in the 17th round. He was a starting pitcher, with a 93 OPS+ over his career. Whatever.

Chase Anderson - The Twins drafted and failed to sign him TWICE, in 2006 and 2007. He had one good season in 2017, but otherwise, has generally been a back of the rotation arm with middling stuff. To date, he has accumulated 8.1 bWAR, and is still active. He might have prevented some desperation starts for guys like Matt Shoemaker, Chris Archer, JA Happ, Randy Dobnak, et al., but would not have moved the needle for us.

Jason Vargas - Miami signed him in 2004 after the Twins failed to a year earlier. He finished his career with a 93 OPS+. He pitched for a long time, but has been a back of the rotation guy most of the time. He might have prevented some starts for the same guys as Chase Anderson.

Tier Four - Notorious - these guys weren’t good players, but they are forever imprinted on baseball’s collective consciousness.

Alex Cora - Drafted by the Twins in the 1993 12th round and signed by the Dodgers in the 3rd of the 1996 draft, Alex was a marginal player as a catcher, worth 7 bWAR over his career. However, his career has transcended beyond just playing, and he has found success at multiple levels. He won the 2007 World Series with Boston as a player, and, won the 2017 World Series with Houston as bench coach, and ALSO won the 2018 World Series as the Manager of the Red Sox. As a Manager, he has a .540 winning percentage. He was involved in the 2019 trashcan scandal and was banned for a year.

A.J. Hinch - The Twins drafted him in 2003, and he signed a year later with Oakland. Both drafts, he was selected in the third round. Played for four teams across part of 7 years. While he was a replacement-level player across his career, he did achieve a place in baseball notoriety. He was the Manager for the 2019 Astros World Series-losing team who was later fired for his role in the trash can cheating scandal. He also led the 2017 Astros to a World Series victory, but I’ll put an asterisk on that.

So, what do you think? Any guys you are sad we couldn’t sign? Comment below!