In my last article, we looked at the bottom-5 performers by WPA at the halfway point. Today, we will look at the top performers. We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As a reminder, as with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimplify things greatly, being worth .5 WPA is roughly equivalent to a win. Read on to see if there are any surprises!

In this group, there were two names that surprised me. Sometimes being clutch is sneaky! Let's start with the player who has increased the team's chances to win by more than any other player this season.

1. Carlos Correa - SS (1.45 WPA)

In case you were wondering, it did not surprise me that Correa is leading the team - he has been on fire for most of the season. His OPS+ is second-highest of his career, and for the past month, has been one of the strongest hitters in baseball, and he has been clutch. It’s a testament to his consistency that he has had four separate games in which he increased the team’s win probability by at least 25%. His signature moment so far happened on 5/30 against the Royals. Correa batted in the 5th with the bases loaded and the game tied at 4. Cut to a bases-clearing triple, and the bullpen saved the game for a key win against a divisional foe. Correa increased the chances for a Twins victory by 40% in that game, almost an entire win.

2. Jhoan Duran - RP (1.19 WPA)

This one surprised me quite a bit. As I have previously written about, Duran has been shaky this year (at least compared to his talent level and the past couple years). His velocity has been down, he hasn’t been locating his pitches in an optimal way, and he has blown saves at a higher rate than in years past. His bWAR is also negative on the year, and tied for worst on the team at -.3. However, situationally, he has still gotten it done more than it might seem. His best moment this season happened on 6/14. Duran came into a tie game in the 9th and increased the Twins’ chances to win by 45% when he pitched a scoreless 9th - and 10th - sending the As down in order to win the game.

3. Simeon Woods Richardson - SP (1.19 WPA)

SWR has been good, and this is backed up by his WPA. He has increased the team’s chances to win in 10/13 starts so far. His best game was on 5/6, when he threw 6 strong innings against the Mariners, giving up just a single hit and one walk, while striking out 8. The team won 3-1, and SWR increased their odds by 36%. Not bad for a rookie’s fourth start, and against one of the best teams in the AL!

4. Willi Castro - UTIL (1.18 WPA)

No surprises here. Castro has been playing out of his mind this season and is leading the team in bWAR at 2.9. He could be in line for his first All-star bid. Interestingly, Castro has only had one big WPA game this season, and it didn’t result in a Twins win. On 6/21, Castro batted in the 7th with the Twins down 2 runs, and hit a 3-run bomb to take the lead. Unfortunately, the bullpen immediate gave up the lead.

5. Ryan Jeffers - C  (1.09 WPA)

Jeffers, while slumping for the past month, has still been one of the best-hitting catchers in the league. He has had many clutch moments, including 4/12 against the Tigers, where he increased the chances of a Twins victory by a whopping 73%. He hit a homer to tie the game in the 7th, then knocked in Carlos Santana an inning later to take the lead. Later, he reached on an error when the game was re-tied, then came around to score for the lead once again. This was the Ryan Jeffers game.

What do you think? Did any of these players surprise you? Will any of the top performers cool off? Comment below to start the discussion!