The Twins Have the Pieces for a Dominant Starting Rotation in 2027

To some extent, the Twins’ starting rotation this year was doomed from the start—not in the sense that the rotation wasn’t good enough, or that Minnesota didn’t have enough solid options heading into the season, but in that they were already diminished and destined to lose even more top arms to injury.

Before Pablo López could even throw a spring training inning, he went down with an elbow injury that would ultimately cost him the entire season. Just like that, the Twins lost the guy who had been their most established frontline starter and were forced to adjust. Then, in mid-April. Mick Abel was coming off of two scoreless outings and looked like he was beginning to establish himself as another legitimate option in the rotation when he was sidelined with inflammation. That would be the last we would see of Abel this season.

You can add Joe Ryan to the list, as well. Ryan was not only healthy for most of the year, but pitching like one of the best starters in the American League through the All-Star break. Then, right in the middle of the Twins’ stretch run, a glute strain (literally) destabilized and (figuratively) derailed him. After a few brutal starts, it landed him on the injured list and put a damper on what had been a legitimately Cy Young-caliber half-season.

You can't blame it all on bad luck. Durability has not been a strong suit for Ryan or Abel, and even Bailey Ober and López have long injury histories. Nor could anyone claim to be shocked when David Festa suffered one setback after another, leading to surgery that puts even his readiness for spring training in some doubt. Rather than calling this outcome bad luck, maybe we should say that the team needed a bit of good luck when it came to pitching health—but the baseball gods denied them that. While that has probably been extremely frustrating for the organization (and obviously for fans watching things unfold), there's another way to look at it. Assuming the guys currently recovering are able to get and stay healthy, the problems Minnesota experienced this season might set them up extremely well for next year.

In a strange way, you can find more solace in the big, extremely costly individual injuries that sideline some pitchers for an entire season than in things like glute strains or 15-day stints on the shelf with soreness. For most pitchers, surgeries like the ones López and Abel each had this year offer some protection from the same kinds of issues in the short term. The long recovery time is no fun, but the risk of reinjury is very low, for a little bit. Therefore, when such injuries cluster together, you can be moderately hopeful of a compensating healthy campaign for those pitchers the following year—barring setbacks before they get back on the mound, which, of course, is a real worry.

Healthy and humming, Ryan, López and Abel comprise a scary trio. And you can add a fourth pitcher to that conversation, in Taj Bradley. Bradley’s season hasn't exactly been consistent. He’ll put together three really good starts, and then seemingly follow them up with three that leave you wondering what happened. But even with those ups and downs, there's a lot to like about the direction in which he's heading. His ERA and expected ERA both sit in the 3.00s, while his strikeout rate is a robust 27.2%.

In terms of pure stuff, there is legitimate frontline upside here. He's also gotten better at avoiding the full-fledged blowup outing. Last season, Bradley made 27 starts, and six of them saw him post a Game Score under 30. (Game Score is an old Bill James-built stat designed to evaluate a start at a glance; 50 is average and higher is better.) This season, he's already made 27 starts, and only two of them came in under 30. Twenty of them have had a Game Score of 50 or higher; only 15 of his 27 in 2025 were that good. Bradley took a big step forward in 2026, and another winter of development could allow him to take another step in 2027.

López, Ryan, Bradley, and Abel lay the foundation for what might turn into one of the best rotations in the league next season. This season has also seen big progress from Zebby Matthews (whose ERA has come down by just over a run each year of his career, so far) and Connor Prielipp. Both guys have mid-rotation upside, and are sturdy options for the back end of the rotation even right now. Meanwhile, top starting prospect Riley Quick is not so far off on the horizon as not to have a hope of arriving in 2027.

Obviously, not everyone is going to stay healthy. Injuries happen, trades will take place, and other moves are going to reshape the roster over the offseason. The team might well retain Ober and/or Dean Kremer, while trading Ryan. The cruel flipside to being hopeful because López and Abel might be sheltered from further injury is the knowledge that next season could be the one in which Bradley, Matthews or Prielipp breaks. There's also no guarantee that every young pitcher takes the developmental step Minnesota is hoping for. That’s just the reality of projecting a rotation this far in advance.

But when you look at the talent currently in place, it’s difficult not to get excited. A healthy López, a healthy Ryan. Bradley continuing to develop, Abel returning and building on his upside, and both Prielipp and Matthews competing for opportunities and potentially providing legitimate depth—that's a lot of talent. After everything that went wrong for the Twins’ starting rotation this season, it would be pretty ironic if the injuries and setbacks ultimately created a situation where the group enters 2027 healthier, deeper, and more dangerous than it has been in quite some time.

The Twins still have work to do this offseason, and plenty can change between now and Opening Day. But as things currently stand, Minnesota’s projected starting rotation entering the 2027 season looks like it could make good on the promise that never turned into sufficient production for the 2026 squad.

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