PDX Twin

How the budget is spent is so much more important than how big it is. The current postseason has three stellar case studies.

All of this is testimony to the fine margins of talent at the upper levels of baseball. We think of baseball as the most individual of the team sports, and it is, but how a player is motivated and used still makes a huge difference to performance. Does the team/coach put him in the mindset to prosper in the environment in which they are using him? Do they give him the training regimen that maximizes his performance on the days that he pitches? Is he motivated, intrinsically or extrinsically, to succeed at his task? Is he using the pitch-mix that suits his abilities and weaknesses? Is the catcher calling the pitches that will get hitters out? And relief pitchers are probably the best example because their sample sizes are usually small: a typical relief pitcher gets maybe one-third as many innings (or fewer) as a regular starter, so to get an assessment of a relief pitchers true performance, you need about three years of games. (Assuming that one year is long enough to establish a starter's performance.) Life is complicated because humans are complicated!

Of course, maybe these teams lose so many games because we are overrating the talent of the prospects.

Trade him (and some others on major-league contracts) for high-level minor leaguers who can finish preparing to be stars in St. Paul during the lockout.

As you point out in the final section, they were meaningful in assessing young talent. And that's something that the Twins have been remiss in not doing for the last two years. Is it better to stumble toward another first-round exit with a barely-.500 record or invest the last month in figuring out which prospects are worthy and which are, at least for now, not. For me, there was, from the beginning, no chance that the Twins were going to have the kind of record non September 1 that portended any kind of playoff success. Thus, doing a little reconnaissance on their minor-league stars is a long-overdue and very important task in preparing to have a team that might---next year or the year after--have a chance to achieve actual success.

I agree! It's great to see different pitching styles be effective. We don't need everyone to throw 110 mph. It reminds me of Wilbur Wood, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Eddie Fisher---slow-throwing knuckleballers who drove hitters crazy, especially out of the bullpen.

If there's floor, then half the league is going to be looking to spend money on FAs. What happens next? Demand is up and supply is stationary, which means that FA prices are going through the roof! They will probably be permanently higher, but unless they phase in the floor slowly, the first year is going to be brutal. The worst year ever to shop ...

The Twins seem to be masters of turning glittering prospects into dull major leaguers. How about a cleanout of the minor-league development staff? Overpay a few from Cleveland and Tampa to move to the Twins organization?

Of course, you are all assuming that there will be a season next summer...

Bibee has lost 15 (!) games this season! But he looked like a right-handed Sandy Koufax against the Twins. Playing out the string indeed!

Speed and defense will decline, possibly fast. So what's left? Homeruns perhaps and good hitting overall. But the contract you propose is foolhardy. Too long. Too much. Perhaps 10-15m base and an equal amount based on games played. Just because we can afford it doesn't mean we should. What is the opportunity cost? We have a lot of young players whom we hope will be worthy of large contracts. The Twins' revenues only allow a limited number of those. I'd choose to keep the powder dry for the likes of Jenkins, Keashall, Culpepper, Ryan, etc. If they all crash and burn, well, no one's going to be buying tickets anyway so low revenues and low costs. Ugly scenario.

So ... they all lost. One team twice. They're training to be Twins!

I'd be very interested in some numbers comparing the Twins' pitching injury record with other teams. Given the way pitchers abuse their arms to achieve greater velocity and/or spin, some injuries are to be expected. But the oft-cited example of Rice University over-using their pitchers suggests that use and training can play a role. Are the Twins' starters more susceptible to long-term injuries than those of other teams? I'm sure this has been studied, but I don't read that literature.

Wining is always good, however your team is doing!

I agree. For this season, we are fighting over scraps at the bottom of the league. Let's get the talented kids up as soon as they are "ready" and start to see the next generation. They may or may not be good enough to be the core of a winning team, but we won't know until we start to see who is worth building around.