MeleMouth

Only Pasqualotto has the potential to be of value to the Twins this year and thus be possibly protected, unless you're overly worried about a bad team with a weak minor league system, like CIN, ATH, or perhaps even HOU, trying to roster Mercedes for a full year*. There are no imminent 2 WAR players here. *Question: if the season is partially wiped out, does that lower the risk of taking a Rule V player, because rostering them for a "whole" season becomes a shorter duration?

"Homegrown" is an emotional term that, like Brian said, has nothing to do with value, and with which it appears you agree. However, it is well proven that people overvalue something they have and undervalue something they don't have, e.g., people won't buy a coffee mug for $2 but won't sell the same mug for $5. "Homegrown" probably functions the same way, especially in this "one of us" market. As you both also agree, the discussion regarding Ryan should be about value. Now, if the topic is the performance of Twins management, an assessment of homegrown could be more valid, because producing value by developing prospects is essentially the coin of the realm for lower-budget teams, although I would also argue that even here creating value is more important than how that value was created. As mentioned by others, the Twins created value by acquiring Ryan in a value for Nelson Cruz. That is good. However, they certainly seem to have missed their window for maximizing his value by trading him to another team. This is common in life. For example, it has been shown that people who trade stocks are better at determining value when buying than when selling. Even though stocks are inanimate objects, people develop some kind of affection for them that clouds their ability to maximize value upon selling. The best traders are aware of this tendency and guard against their own feelings overruling their judgment. The Twins' behavior with Ryan seems to fit this pattern - good realization of value on buying, bad realization of value on selling. This is decent, but they're in a league of experts, where "decent" often comes in last place to "really smart." To go one step further, this could be one reason why Tampa and Milwaukee, which have been owned by people who got rich by being successful traders, are more successful than a team like the Twins that is owned by people who inherited their wealth and previously said that their priority for a new general manager was someone who was "lovable."

FanGraphs crowdsource has Bauers at 3/$51. There are good arguments that Jeffers should be worth more than Bauers, including that he's younger yet has a longer track record, and especially if you consider that he could catch and then switch to first base for a few years.

A little context: the team changed what it valued after about a month or two. They started the season with their traditional priority of power with little care about defense or contact, and that switched around mid-May. Most defensively poor players saw changes around then. Wallner then went to St. Paul and remained a power-only guy, but his contact and defense remained poor and his power wasn't anything special. His xWOBA in St. Paul was .309, which is very similar to Ben Ross. Wallner should move to the bullpen.

The CBA can't change "everything." A more even playing field will improve the odds, but over time teams that make better decisions will outperform regardless of economic environment.

Theme: "Don't trust the lack of process."

And then his arm blew up.

Not something to think about now. They need to first put together a really good team before worrying about who's going to pitch multiple lefty relief innings in the playoffs.

And for failing to negotiate with Jeffers two years ago when he was cheaper. When teams let it play out, sometimes the money works out, sometimes it doesn't.

Best case outcome if they sign Bednar and Morejon would be to change 2027 from 75 wins to 79-80 wins.

The Twins will be fine with Jeffers accepting the QO. They wouldn't have offered to him if they weren't. A one-year overpay for a position of need isn't the worst thing. A bigger issue for people who want the Twins to upgrade the bullpen through free agency is that Bednar and Morejon also got QOs. The Twins should be loath to give up draft choices for signing a free agent, especially for a position as variable as reliever and could cost $15-$16M apiece per year for several years.

He's probably going to be available again sooner than later as teams claim players and then try to sneak them through waivers.

Based on mostly bringing back the same gang, except trading Larnach and Ryan for prospects and adding Drew Millas from WSN in a minor trade. Jimmy Crooks from StL could be a back-up target. This is highly unlikely to be anywhere near the Opening Day roster and I am likely to change my mind, also, so these thoughts are valid only for a short time. No large dollar free agents are being signed, but the 2027 team should approach the weak free agent market opportunistically, particularly for OF, 1B, and P. "Keep your powder dry," said Oliver Cromwell. "Wait for the opportune moment," said Captain Jack Sparrow. Large dollar free agents this year are unlikely to meaningfully change the short-term trajectory of the team, whereas they would lard up the payroll of future teams that have a higher potential with expensive, declining veterans, making it harder to add to those teams. Hopefully those future teams will have a smarter front office that can take advantage of their opportune moments. Lopez is moved to closer. If he thrives in the role, he will be traded at mid-season. Fandom and "liking" a player does not impact decisions that should be made for the betterment of the team. It's not a thrilling roster if you want "hope," but it is a roster that gives the Twins a more honest chance to have a better future. C: Victor Caratini ($7.00M) 1B: Royce Lewis ($5.10M) 2B: Kody Clemens ($3.60M) 3B: Brooks Lee ($1.00M) SS: Kaelen Culpepper ($1.00M) LF: Alan Roden ($1.00M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Walker Jenkins ($1.00M) DH: Luke Keaschall ($1.00M) 4th OF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($1.00M) Utility: Austin Martin ($1.00M) Utility: Ryan Kreidler ($1.00M) Backup C: Drew Millas ($1M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Mick Abel ($1.00M) SP2: Zebby Matthews ($1.00M) SP3: Dean Kremer ($6.50M) SP4: Connor Prielipp ($1.00M) SP5: Taj Bradley ($4.50M) RP: Jeff Hoffman ($7.25M) RP: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) RP: Tommy Nance ($1.20M) RP: Marco Raya ($1M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($1.00M) RP: Travis Adams ($1.00M) RP: Andrew Morris ($1.00M) RP: Bailey Ober ($6.90M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 29.96% under budget

Of free agent relievers signed in 2026, Matz had the 15th highest AAV @ $7.5M (13th if you count only relievers signed to be relievers). It's up to you whether you call that "expensive" or "high priced." It's definitely less than the eight figures people are bandying about for pitchers like Bednar, Morejon, and Minter. Also, to be clear, I said "pitched in the playoffs," not "worked." In 2026, Matz had 0.0 fWAR and -0.7 bWAR. He pitched in the playoffs because the Rays brought him there, not because he was a crucial part of their success. The Rays got a lot more out of the $925,000 they paid for free agent Cam Booser (0.8 fWAR, 1.1 bWAR).

I would be happy with the trades you proposed, but why do you think the other teams, particularly PIT and ARI, would accept them? How many games do you think this team could win? Without large break-throughs from at least two of Lewis, Jenkins, Culpepper, and ERod, it seems like another 75 win team. If you think Bednar and Morejon would combine for another 5 wins, then it could an 80 win team, but if it's a 75 win team otherwise, why spend big money on relievers? Are you sending Abel to St. Paul? Why trade for Bernal and Davis?