There had been speculation that Jake Bauers would be a top target... or at least A target for the Twins to fill our first base hole. Well the Red Sox just signed Bauers to a 4 year $58M deal.  That is less than $15M AAV.  Looking at this from multiple perspectives, is this a good deal? is this an overpay?

$15M is a very doable number for a team that says they are committed to spending money, and for someone that could put up numbers like 25-30HR, .873 OPS (using very basic statistics) and coming off a winning season, that screams fair market value, especially being arguably the best free agent first baseman on the market. However the 32% K rate is quite high, That all being said, is $15M an overpay for an anomalous season? Is it a GOOD thing the Twins did not spend that kind of money on that kind of player? Would that be spending money just to spend money? and is there better value elsewhere? from 2018-2024  the only year he hit above .209 was when he hit .226 in 2019, and topped out at .700 on his OPS in 2018. 2025 was his highwater mark previous to 2026 where he was .235 and .752.  Is this showing continued improvement? should he be expected to trend upward or even plateau at this level? or should the expectation be regressing to the norm? It shoudl also be noted that his K rate has remained consistent at 32-33% throughout his career.

Regardless of if he would have been a good fit for the Twins, or if the Twins should be criticized for not (presumably) going after him, his signing with the Red Sox does potentially impact the Twins options.  I would say in a positive manner, and open up a typical "Twins-like" move.  The Red Sox now have Wilson Contreras and Jake Bauers. First Base is now locked down.  So what player does that make completely dispensable? Triston Casas.

Triston Casas should be able to be had for relatively little in the way of prospects. Casas is in year2 of arbitration and would cost roughly $1.6M. Casas does come with health concerns, as he has played in a total of 92 games since 2023. including 0 last year. More importantly Casas does come with minor league options left, so if he cannot prove his value in Spring training, we can always send him down. If... IF he can stay healthy and regain his form (How many players have we said that about??!!) he could be a nice addition.

Casas full year before injuries (2023) vs Bauers break out year (2026)

Casas 429 ABs  70 BB  126 K .263 AVG .856 OPS 129 OPS+

Bauers  477 ABs  94 BB 156 K  .266 AVG  .874 OPS   140 OPS+

Relatively similar numbers. but Casas is 4 years younger and $12M+ cheaper.

If the Twins do supposedly have a plethora of starting pitching (insert " I am not sure you know what a plethora is" comment here).  Then sending off someone on the back end of that group for Casas would be a nice move for the Twins. The Twins could get a potential power bat to fill 1B, with the protection of minor league options, as well as low coast and be able to spend that "increased payroll" somewhere else.

Would Bailey Ober for Casas be fair? Twins actually SAVE about $5M they could spend elsewhere,  and with pitchers such as Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Kremer, Preilipp, Mathews, Abel all still in the mix, it would not be a huge loss (although I like Ober).

Unrelated Topics:

* What would it take to get Ezequiel Duran from Texas? a Gold Glove winner for utility and a Silver Slugger finalist. He would be a great add for 2B.

* Do the Twins need to actually Trade E-Rod? I have stated for 2 years the Twins need to trade him while he has value. He has great potential but has injury history. If the Twins are serious about keeping Keaschall in teh OF, then we do not have enough spots for Buxton, Jenkins, Keaschall, E-rod (Even assuming both Larnach and Wallner are gone). The one call I would make, which may be redundant, would be call Pittsburgh to try a package around E-Rod & Oneill.  But regardless of that Larnach should not be the ONLY outfielder moved this offseason. E-rod out of options, is a 4th OF role in his best interest? and not trading Jenkins, Buxton, or Keaschall.

* Speaking of trading E-Rod and trading with the Rangers, would a payroll increasing team like the Twins have an interest in Corey Seager? Yes we have Culpepper at SS, but he could move to 2B. Yes we have Marek Houston who could be ready as early as next year, but Seager is Seager.  OF is an area Texas will be focusing on this winter and they want to get younger and shed some payroll. There could be a good fit here. we have OF they have IF (either Seager or Duran. I would also LOVE Wallcott but they aint moving him).