Is Royce Lewis for real?

If you were to survey every Twins fan around their favorite current player, Royce Lewis would likely be near the top - and for good reason. So far this season, Royce Lewis has been doing very Royce Lewis things - being a spark plug for the offense, hitting a ton of bombs, and generally doing everything right. On a nearly daily basis, he is being recognized on the TV and radio broadcasts for doing things that just aren’t done. For example, he’s been hitting HRs at a higher rate than Barry Bonds. He’s one of just a handful of hitters to hit 10 HR in their first 16 games of a season. He’s been worth 1.6 bWAR in 16 games. You can go on an on. But, is he for real? Can he keep this up?

No. At least, probably not. Regression will come eventually. However, the drop-off may not be as big as you would think.

Looking at his batted ball data on Baseball Savant, there are a few things that stand out. First, check out all the red. Makes sense, since he’s been crushing. However, he’s also walking at an elite level, and striking out at an elite level too. He’s barreling up in the 100th percentile, and his bat speed is great.

Second, this isn’t a case of a young player being thrown a bunch of prove-it fastballs. Royce has been crushing pitches of EVERY type. As you can see, his expected batting average is over .300 across the board, and his actually performing the WORST against heaters. That’s unusual, and it’s a sign of his maturity at the plate, his pitch recognition, and his quick hands.

Third, his homers have not been wall-scrapers. Of his 10 homers so far this season, 70% have been no-doubters, and the others would have been out in most ballparks.

Fourth, looking at his year over year progress, we can see that this is a case of a young player, not yet hitting his prime, showing real improvement year over year, across the board. He’s swinging less outside the zone, he’s ambushing pitchers, and he’s optimizing his launch angle. In short, he’s got a sweet swing.

Finally, let’s take one gratuitous look at some player comps. Yes, this is a VERY small sample size. But, the comps on this list are also the short list of MVP favorites.   

Looking at the batted ball data, and combining in with the eye test, what do you think? Is Lewis the best player on the team? Does he have MVPs in his future? Or will he fall back down to Earth? Start the discussion below!