We are currently less than three weeks away from the trade deadline. Fangraphs has the Twins with the second-best chance in the AL of making the playoffs, at 85%. With that in mind, I’m going to share what I believe to be the best strategy with a deep playoff run as the focus. To be realistic, I’m going to assume we won’t take on more than maybe $5M in additional salary. I also won’t decimate the farm system, or assume that we can swindle other teams.

First, let’s look at the current state of the team, and likely needs.

Rotation - we will need three playoff-caliber starters. We may or may not have them.

1. Pablo is at the top. While his results haven’t been great this year, his peripherals suggest he should be doing DRAMATICALLY better, with a 3.22 xFIP. Will his results regress towards expectations? Hopefully. Even if they don’t get all the way there, he’s still a playoff starter.
2. Joe Ryan has been our best starter so far this season, and is deserving of an All-Star nod, with the 4th best WHIP in the AL, and the 7th most strikeouts. He’s also top-15 in most other pitching categories such as wins, BAA, innings pitched, you name it. He has a history of a second-half decline, but his stuff this year is beyond nasty. Barring an epic drop-off, he’s a playoff starter as well.
3. Bailey Ober has been solid, and has a career of strong results. However, he would likely be one of the worst #3 starters in a deep playoff run unless he can eliminate the odd blowup where he allows 6 runs. It also might be nice to use him as a piggyback in a playoff game in the event of a short start from someone else.

Lineup - this is our towering strength as a team and we likely are set here - and not just for this year.

2. Catcher - Ryan Jeffers is a top-3 catcher in the AL. Vasquez can’t hit a lick, but has been fine defensively and great at pitch framing. He’s a fine backup catcher and we won’t move on from his contract
3. 1B - Carlos Santana is on pace for a 3+ WAR season, and we have many other options to spell him, from Miranda to Julien and Kirilloff should they make their way back to the majors. It would be tough to make a sizable upgrade, and wouldn’t be worth the cost for the incremental improvement.
4. 2B - We are set here too. For now, we have Castro, Farmer, and when Lewis comes back, we have Lee.
5. 3B - Lewis when he’s back, Miranda, Castro - we are good
6. SS - Correa, having his second-best season ever, Lee, Castro, and Farmer in an emergency. Good here too.
7. LF - The good version of Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach who can his off speed stuff now and who’s xWOBA says his OPS should be in the mid-.800s, and Castro when Lewis comes back.
8. CF - Byron Buxton. He’s been pretty healthy, and pretty good. By WAR, he’s been a top-3 CF in the AL.
9. RF - Max Kepler, and Wallner, Larnach, and Castro can all back him up if need be. This is our weakest position, and it’s still above average.

The good news about all those guys but Santana is they are under team control for multiple years. This also gives us some flexibility from a prospect depth standpoint.

Bullpen - we likely need six good relievers for a deep run. There are four I trust

1. Duran - Yes, his velocity is down. Yes, he’s getting hit harder. However, he has been playing up and may be fixing his mechanical issues from earlier this season.
2. Jax - He’s been one of our best relievers. The stuff is great and he consistently gets it done.
3. Stewart - He’s close to returning, and has been our best reliever when healthy.
4. Alcala - He’s been nails this season. His velocity is through the roof, and he’s gotten his walk rate under control.
5. Staumont/Sands/Thielbar/Okert/Funderburk - These guys are fine, but will cause some agita if they are coming out of the pen in a tie game in the 5th in the ALCS.

All that leaves us with two clear opportunities for upgrade - a starting pitcher, and two relievers.  However, if we signed a good enough pitcher, we could convert both Varland and Paddack to the bullpen down the stretch, and they would both slot ahead of at least everyone under Alcala. That would fix the bullpen. So, a great starting pitcher fixes everything. But who do we have to give up?

Thinking about our farm system, I’m going to have Jenkins and Emma Rodriguez as untouchable with superstar potential. However, I’ll have most other guys available. I assume the players that most other teams would be interested are the same that we would hate to give up - Festa, Keaschall, and Zebby Matthews.

With all this in mind, I’m looking to swing for the fences by trading for an ace that can slot in at or above the Lopez Level.

The solution? Kevin Gausman. This makes sense for a few reasons. First, he’s been a frontline starter for the past 5 seasons. Second, he would slot in alongside Lopez, or ahead of him. Third, it allows the bullpen conversions mentioned above. Fourth, he’s under control for the next two seasons as well. That would mean that we have a playoff-caliber team for the next two seasons with a clear World Series window.

Yes, Gausman’s owed $23M each of the next two seasons. This would likely be a problem for the Twins due to self-imposed budgetary constraints. However, there might be a way to make this work. First, the Jays reportedly want to cut salary to get below the luxury tax threshold. They have said they are willing to trade all rentals. So, they may be willing to get creative for the right deal.

Perhaps we could trade two of Festa, Keaschall, and Matthews, plus one of Andrew Morris or Gabby Gonzalez, plus a couple rookie ball lottery tickets. That would be quite an overpay for Gausman, but maybe it would be enough for the Jays to cover at least half of his remaining contract, if not all of it. If they do, that only increases our payroll by around $5M for this season. If even that would be a problem, we could also trade Max Kepler for a prospect and recoup about the same. For next season, we would then not need to sign any free agents.

This would cut a lot of high-end prospects out of our system, which I'm generally not a fan of. However, we have so many guys that are solid or better, and a ton of positional flexibility that we may be able to absorb the hit. On the pitching side, we would be set for the next few years as well.

If the team could pull something like this off, we should win several more playoff series' over the next few years.

What do you think? Do you agree with my assessment of the team? Do you think a trade like this would earn us a solid chance at the World Series over the next few years? Comment below!