bean5302

Agreed. It's hard to be worth less than PTBNL or cash considerations, and that's where Kirilloff is today. The question is whether or not Kirilloff is here next spring since he's on the path to DFA. Regardless of how negative my take on Kirilloff is right now, going down to AAA might allow him to make some major adjustments to his stance and swing which could potentially open a new door to him. Gotta do something if he wants to play again in the big show.

We're not playing last year over again, though. We're looking at what players are doing this year. Lewis RHB vs. RHP = .318/.375/.909 OPS 1.284 Miranda RHB vs RHP = .285/.323/.491 OPS .814 Larnach LHB vs. RHP = .256/.321/.436 OPS .757 Kirilloff LHB vs RHP = .203/.271/.392 OPS .663 Julien LHB vs RHP = .207/.309/.367 OPS .676 Kepler LHB vs. RHP = .235/.300/.390 OPS .690 Margot RHB vs. RHP = .182/.260/.242 OPS .503 Seems like Lewis and Miranda are just fine not being platooned... because they're better than the lefty bats who the Twins would actually use as platoon hitters against RHP.

I don't think the Twins would have let Snell start out of the gate like the Giants did, and I suspect there are more than a few teams keeping a close eye on the NL West standings and last year's Cy Young winner. Snell could be a good trade target for the Twins at the end of July.

You're not sorry so why say it unless it's obvious sarcasm? Also, why apologize to me? I might not even be one of the people you initially insulted. The backhanded "I'm so smart nobody can tell I'm throwing insults at them" posture you've taken is a bigger insult than the thinly veiled intent of your comments in the first place. Side note, I'm not at all mad, and my comment has nothing to do with baseball at all. It's a pet peeve of mine when people debate the validity of the person making the argument rather than the subject of the debate, and that's what you've done in the comments I take issue with. I can be hypocritical doing the same thing from time to time, but I try hard to avoid it.

I like Thielbar's commitment and his attitude about it all. He's an easy guy to cheer for, but as you say, he can't be used in medium/high leverage right now. He's working a lot higher up in the zone with his fastball to try and compensate for what he thinks is a lack of rise, but I think that just results in the batter expecting the pitch to land high and it actually landing high so the batter puts the right swing into motion to zero in on the pitch. His rise isn't elite on the fastball, but it's been far above average this year. His real issue is probably control/walks, and with him aiming higher, he's going to get more pitches called balls, dropping him behind in the count and forcing him into bad situations.

Kirilloff is not in the same category as a guy like Wallner (352 PA, wRC+ 129) or even Julien (602 PA, wRC+ 124). Julien, by the way, was always at the very edge of sustainable plate approach methodology. There's nothing new about that. Everybody following metrics and Julien knows he was riding a razors edge, but he could still put it back together. Julien's struggles are exactly what scouts and fans alike are concerned about in Emmanuel Rodriguez's somewhat similar results. Also, Julien worked hard at improving his defense, and although I'd still grade him as pretty rough looking, he's definitely improved. Kirilloff (884 PA, wRC+ 100) was already arb eligible this past offseason, he's 27 with 900 MLB plate appearances across 4 years under his belt. Larnach (830 PA, wRC+ 99) is closer to Kirilloff in terms of how much of a longshot a player might be to turn it around since Larnach had about 700 plate appearances coming into this season, but Larnach has great baseball instincts which allows him to be relatively neutral as a corner outfielder. I never expected Larnach to show what he has this year with the reduced K rate pushing his bat to a different level, but I always accepted Larnach gets the most out of his game his limited athleticism can grant him. Larnach is also still a long shot to keep producing, but he's at least earned a long look. Conversely, Kirilloff continues to drop routine fly balls, position himself incorrectly, and miss infield grounders. On Tuesday, I watched Kirilloff awkwardly misplay a throw to first by Jeffers to catch a runner leading off too far. I cringed as @RpR popped into my head while I thought "Santana makes that play." Of course, after Kirilloff didn't truly want to accept responsibility or say the right things after costing the Twins a playoff game vs. the Astros last year after a defensive flub at 1B, he could have gone all in this offseason learning 1B, but it doesn't seem like he did. Alex Kirilloff has a very low ceiling, even if he does reach his potential. With a swing designed to produce line drives rather than fly ball home runs, an inability to take walks, no athleticism, and poor instincts, he's at best a 1.5 WAR DH or 2.0 WAR 1B if he improves everything about his game as his absolute ceiling in my honest opinion. I made the Nomar Mazara comp for Alex Kirilloff on another thread. If you look at the two from an expectations and career batting results standpoint, it'd be impossible to tell them apart without a hint at who was who. Certainly other teams have prospects who are a flash in the pan or struggle from time to time. I saw some pretty ridiculous comps in here, though. Julio Rodriguez? That Julio Rodriguez? The one with 12 career WAR at age 23 who is wRC+ 96 this year while still on the path for 2.5 WAR campaign? Jackson Holliday? 36 plate appearances from the 20 year old who the Orioles are manipulating service time rather than demoting because of his results; he's a comp for Twins prospects struggles? Colt Keith is 22 with 206 PA... If we want a comp, we can use Spencer Torkelson (1318 PA, wRC+ 91). He's also only 24, but he's probably more of a bust than a guy with a hiccup. Not all prospects work out. Kirilloff is one of those who is a long shot to ever produce enough with his bat to justify more than a journeyman status like C.J. Cron, but even that level will require Kirilloff to learn to play defense and improve his bat a little. If the Twins DFA'd Kirilloff today, it'd be shortsighted, but it's unlikely they'd regret it.

I don't have nearly the experience or behind the scenes baseball knowledge anybody playing or coaching/managing in MLB has. I can tell you definitively Joe Mauer was better than Drew Butera or Mike Trout was better than Ben Revere because I can evaluate the players compared to other players. I don't need to be a position player or catcher to do that. I also don't need to be an MLB manager to second guess decision making which appears bizarre or that other teams openly criticize (like the Yankees broadcasters recently). Btw, baseball coaches, managers and players were not the ones who developed the best stats used to evaluate game performance. Writers and stat heads and geeks were. The very same stats that Baldelli and this front office live and die by, and the stats which have totally changed how baseball is played. Your comment is nothing more than a smoothed over, pompous attempt at gatekeeping who gets to speak or have an opinion, and how much of an opinion, based on the criteria you have chosen.

Wallner had a wide range of outcomes on that "double" since it landed in the glove of the CF'er but popped out as he hit the wall. It could have been an out. It could have been a stand up triple instead of being called out at 3rd (looked safe to me) as Wallner slow trotted out of the box thinking it was a home run. Not sure Martin has what it takes to succeed at the MLB level, but he's certainly shown huge improvement at the plate in AAA since his demotion. Martin's AAA triple slash before today looks like a video game. .305/.470/.407 OPS .877, 22.9% BB, 8.4% K (yes that's the correct ratio) wRC+ 142. After a SSS slow start in A+, Doncon is already rebounding. Nice to see the bat heating up as he's not Noah Miller in the field.

Kirilloff is even further down the depth chart now than Trevor Larnach was coming into the season. It'll take a minor miracle for him to see another season in a Twins uniform. He's had 900 plate appearances across 4 years in the majors where he's been consistently below average at the plate, shielded from LHP, and a butcher at every defensive position he's played. To top that off, he's coming up on arb2 status. This time, there's not even a mysterious injury to provide an excuse. He's a highly likely trade/non-tender guy, and if traded, it'd be for a PTBNL or something like that. Kirilloff is emergency depth for a different MLB team.

The Phantom IL is not going to happen with Thielbar. This is especially the case with a front office who'd be easy to suspend considering their Lame Duck contract status situation. Aside from that, AAA is not a magical cure all or fountain of youth which fixes career twilight pitchers like Jay Jackson and Caleb Thielbar.

Thielbar looks cooked to me. He just doesn't have it, and he hasn't had it for a while. Looking at reliever ERA isn't great because the inherited base runners allowed to score isn't part of their ERA. Thielbar's FIP looks real rough for over a month now, and it was only serviceable before that. His xFIP has been bad all year. Rocking a 2.04 WHIP on the season after today due to hitters , that puts him as the 3rd worst in all MLB among relievers with 15+ innings. He's in the bottom 25-35% for a whole host of numbers on BaseballSavant as well so it's not like it's all luck, either.

These articles are not a terrible idea, but they're way too early. I'm assuming there's a push to try and get an article for all 30 MLB teams, but many teams, like the Pirates may not be sellers.

Offseason, midseason, beginning of season. It doesn't matter. Same exact argument. When Kirilloff wasn't able to swing the bat effectively, he got put on the IL, he didn't get pushed to struggle through injury like top players because Kirilloff provided no on the field value. Kirilloff has been essentially the same hitter every season with supposed different injuries (barring his unsustainable BABIP 2023). It's not a coincidence. Just like it's not a coincidence every time he puts on a Saints uniform he's not hurt anymore and he hits well, only to be "hurt" by putting on a Twins' uniform. Let's be realistic here. Kirilloff's biggest injury has been MLB pitching. Kirilloff is now in the minors because he earned another demotion after his bat still didn't play after 900 plate appearances in MLB. He's arb2 and out of options next year. Guess who gets non-tendered in November, just like his older version clone, Nomar Mazara did?

Did Jay Jackson fix his missing velocity, too? 3 games to fix a completely flat slider in St. Paul. I just don't see how that wasn't something the Twins could have addressed during normal bullpens.

Sometimes the moves this front office makes are just perplexing.

2022, 2023, 2024, Career xFIP FTO = 4.27, 4.31, 4.43, 4.32 STO = 3.05, 3.40, 4.62, 3.57 TTO = 6.69, 5.32, 2.76, 5.12 The problem with him being "terrible" in the TTO is guys allowed to pitch TTO are given the quick hook when things don't go well. Rather than being given the opportunity to pitch out of a jam or pitch after allowing a home run, the manager calls in a reliever. Those runs allowed by the starter (or the reliever who allows inherited runners to score) get hung on the pitcher's TTO ERA and FIP, without the ability to offset them by continuing to pitch under the assumption the pitcher is no longer going to be effective moving forward. This artificially inflates ERA/FIP and perpetuates the TTO myth. In general, the difference between FTO -> STO is worse than STO -> TTO when I've looked at MLB as a whole for larger sample sizes, and the jump from STO -> TTO has sometimes been negligible in xFIP. The question, though, is not whether or not the pitcher is worse than they started the game, it's whether or not the starter is worse than a reliever you'd replace them with or how the replacement impacts the bullpen's readiness.

Does it really matter? Correa is a very good baseball player. He's the #9 SS in baseball during the time he's been with the Twins, including last year's disappointing campaign from him. IMHO, he's a reliable All Star caliber player who can be expected to produce about 4-5 WAR. He's not the greatest shortstop in baseball, and he doesn't need to be the greatest because he's not paid like the greatest. While Royce Lewis has become the new face of the franchise, Carlos Correa is the veteran leader and cornerstone at this point, and there is a lot of value in that. I think he's almost universally liked. His leadership and instincts were on full display last year in the playoffs, and his work was absolutely key in the Twins advancing. If we were to calculate Correa's value based on different methods. Traditional $8MM / WAR, keeping in mind this cost is decreasing right now as teams are paying less per free agent WAR than they used to, but I don't expect the trend to continue as MLB revenues/payrolls are inflating so I'll hold it right at $8MM per WAR, with 4.00% inflation assumed for MLB salaries. For this year, I assumed he'd play in 137 games (88 of 95 remaining games) and multiplied 137 / 49 by his current fWAR. Correa: 2022 a27, 4.6 fWAR = $37MM vs. $35MM paid. 2023 a28, 1.9 fWAR = $15MM vs. $36MM paid. 2024 a29, 5.3 fWAR = $42.4MM vs. $36MM paid. 2025 a30, 4.5 fWAR = $36MM vs. $36MM ($33MM w/inflation) paid. 2026 a31, 4.0 fWAR = $32MM vs. $31.5MM ($28MM w/inflation) paid. 2027 a32, 3.5 fWAR = $28MM vs. $30.5MM ($26MM w/inflation) paid. 2028 a33, 3.0 fWAR = $24MM vs. $30.0MM ($25MM w/inflation) paid. ----------------------------------------------------------------- guarantee ends, moves to 3B? 2029 a34, 2.0 fWAR = $16MM vs. $25MM ($20MM w/inflation) paid. 2030 a35, 2.0 fWAR = $16MM vs. $20MM ($15MM w/inflation) paid. 2031 a36, 1.5 fWAR = $12MM vs. $15MM ($11MM w/inflation) paid. 2032 a 37, 0.5 fWAR = $4MM vs. $10MM ($7MM w/inflation) paid. Basically, Correa's contract is pretty reasonable. Even considering his performance on the field should be expected to decline as he ages and moves off SS, his salary is probably pretty commiserate with reasonable production expectations, and if he does wind up suffering a significant injury or playing time, beyond age 33, the Twins aren't on the hook for anything.

Based on Varland's post game comments, he sounded very happy to get 5 good innings pitched rather than like a pitcher who had any confidence it would continue. I don't care about TTO. It's a myth reinforced by a methodology. xFIP rises more on STO than TTO. That said, if the desire was to give some rest to the pitching staff like Baldelli talked about, you absolutely send Varland out there for the 6th inning so your guys can actually get rest. I'm going to go even further on this. Varland was at 65 pitches. Why do players get better against a pitcher TTO? The argument is players see "x" number of pitches and they figure a guy out. Except Varland had only thrown 65 pitches so the opposing batters hadn't seen that many pitches to figure Varland out as thoroughly, right? TTO is such a garbage theory.

Seriously, if you were one of the fans who believed Lopez was an acceptable ace, yes, it's time to be very concerned. He's not an ace. He's not even a great #2. Throughout his career, he's typically run an ERA significantly higher than his FIP, like our old friend Ricky Nolasco. When you see a pattern year in and out, there's a good chance the results are not luck oriented, they're part of a player's profile. Lopez has struggled quite a bit with the gopher ball this year, but even if he corrects it, and pitches lights out to get back to where you'd expect he'd be at a normal luck level, he'll run a 3.85ish ERA this year. He's a solid playoff rotation arm, but he can't be counted on to lead a playoff caliber rotation.

Fair enough. Re-reading that seemed awfully harsh on my part. It's definitely reduced his value already, though. If Jenkins doesn't return to form before the All Star break, it will have a very measurable impact. Probably 30-40% of his trade value.

Not interested in any of the Marlins players. If the Twins need something, it's a decidedly front end arm, not a mid rotation guy or a reclamation project.

Players play with injuries that require offseason surgery to address all the time. Players play hurt all the time. Aches and pains are normal. Kirk Gibson won Game 1 of the 1988 World Series when he couldn't even jog. When Kirilloff was in too much pain to play, the Twins didn't say, hey just use one arm, dude, you don't need a trip to the IL. They put Kirilloff on the IL. The Twins didn't ask Kirilloff to get back out there directly from the surgical recovery room, either. The manipulation of context in your post is total BS.

Yup. Kirilloff (LHB) and Mazara (LHB) line up pretty well. Career numbers: .256/.315/.414 OPS .719, .158 ISO, 7.3% BB, 22.0% K, wOBA .313 .249/.311/.414 OPS .715, .165 ISO, 7.0% BB, 24.1% K, wOBA .313 One is Kirilloff, one is Mazara. Neither is/was a good outfielder, but Mazara was at least close to league average where Kirilloff has been a black hole, though he could probably get better with consistent playing time. Combining the non-terrible defense with his added playing time, that's why Mazara owns a career 2.1 fWAR and Kirilloff owns a career 0.2.

Kirilloff hasn't played injured. He's played "hurt" like every other baseball player has done, and it's no coincidence he performed essentially the same regardless of the type of injury; whether it's a wrist or a shoulder or whatever else. Basically a little below league average at the plate. The sample size on Kirilloff is pretty big at this point, and we have seen sustained production from him, just not sustained, unsustainable production. Last year was an outlier where Kirilloff enjoyed a BABIP 35 points higher than his career efforts. Kirilloff has mediocre power. He doesn't take walks. He's basically Nomar Mazara, who was out of baseball at age 27. The difference is the Twins didn't put it together as quickly as the Rangers did so the Twins are the White Sox in this scenario.

Jenkins isn't hitting particularly well in Single A this year, though the sample size is small. Might want to see him play well for 100+ plate appearances before thinking about High A, let alone AA...