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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    That was a beautiful attempt by Gordon. He couldn't have played it better with an almost perfect straight angle to the ball and he missed the ball by an inch off the tip of his glove, not feet, like a Jake Cave dive. If Gordon doesn't go for the catch, there's no telling which angle the ball takes as it bounces off the wall in the corner of left field. Regardless, 2 runs score as it was 2 outs so the runners went on contact with a run already crossing the plate as Gordon was getting up from his dive and another runner on their way in. Even worse, there's no out at the plate. No, now there's a runner on 2nd or 3rd with 2 outs and a tie game. Things worked out the absolute best way they could, ironically. Attached is an image of Gordon's route. He took virtually a perfect angle on that ball. I should clarify. Orange is the line drive path. Black dots are Nick Gordon and Carlos Correa. Gray dots are the other fielders (Byron Buxton runs all the way over to Gordon). Blue is the throw from Gordon to Correa. The problem is at the center of the red circle... or it's the runners paths. Either way.
  2. bean5302
    I'm interested to see if Jose Miranda can keep on fire and close the gap on Julio Rodriguez as a RoY candidate (it'll be a very tall call) or if he can just continue mashing. I'm interested to see if Maeda can return and how he looks. I'm interested to see how Duran closes out the season. I'm interested in potentially seeing Matt Wallner and Simeon Woods-Richardson at the MLB level. That's in addition to whether or not the Twins can pull out a division win and advance all the way to a World Series victory.
  3. bean5302
    Miller is holding his own at the plate in Low-A at age 19. The triple slash may not look great, but the league is a hard core pitcher's league anyway. Miller's wRC+ 95 is right about league average and right where it has been all year. Much more important to me, Miller has clearly been working on his strikeout rate and made a massive improvement without taking fewer walks. His on base percentage has been great, near .350 all season. Since the All Star Break his walk vs. K rate looks way better and way more sustainable. BB% = 15.2% K% = 16.5% (down from 25.5% in the first half of the year) At age 19, there is plenty, and I mean PLENTY of time for his power to develop. I wouldn't expect Miller to be knocking at the MLB door prior to 2025.
  4. bean5302
    The Turbo Tubs? A name as bad as their uniforms, ugh. At least they're not the Amarillo Sod Poodles I guess. Aside from that, pretty nice start for Woods-Richardson as he stretches back out. Only 1 walk, and he didn't give up many hits with plenty of strikeouts. 78 pitches in 4 innings isn't good, but the 69% strike rate tells me there were probably a lot of pitches fouled off.
  5. bean5302
    What does Ryan, Ober, Winder, Smeltzer, Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stashak, Alcala or Ryan have to do with the current state of the Twins' farm system? Is Thielbar going to be listed as a top prospect for Minnesota next year? We're not developing reliable starters. That's the issue. A whole bunch of middle relievers and a guy who the front office watched for 1 month before calling him up after a trade does not equal a successful development system. The current front office has been no more successful (arguably significantly worse) at developing pitchers than the previous regimes.
  6. bean5302
    First inning was solid, after that, Gray struggled with control a bit and you can't be walking guys and putting yourself into 3-2 counts against a dangerous hitting and confident team on an obvious path to the playoffs like the Dodgers. They'll make pitchers pay.
  7. bean5302
    In my opinion, plan A is Royce Lewis as the starting shortstop next year with Jermaine Palacios as his backup. There's no more kid glove time for Lewis. He needs to play.
  8. bean5302
    Lewis was walking 3 weeks after surgery. The surgery was non-standard as they elected to insert a brace to reinforce the joint and Lewis has the procedure performed in Dallas. Not sure the name of the place.
  9. bean5302
    I went through the 40 man roster projection in the last couple days on a thread around here somewhere. I don't see any crunches.
  10. bean5302
    As soon as spring training starts up, they'll move to the 60 day IL and be removed from the 40 man roster. Side note: Lewis is an interesting case at this point. Apparently, his doctors have him on an aggressive return path of as quick as 10 months, which could see him on the field just a couple weeks into the start of next year. If his quick recovery continues, I don't think the Twins will put him on the 60 day IL.
  11. bean5302
    This just a couple days after Baldelli gets tossed and makes the front page news for losing his mind during AND after the game.
  12. bean5302
    Maybe, but I'm guessing the front office is going to be looking to dump more salary based on the Twins probably losing money this year. Also, I'd wager it's far more likely the Twins decline their options and bring Archer or Bundy back on 1 year deals at $5-6MM or something like that.
  13. bean5302
    This was a bad start by Gray. When your starter gives up 4 runs (3 earned) and can't make it through 5 innings, you're not winning many games. If you expect the bullpen to go out there and pitch 4-1/3 innings giving up 0 runs, you're nuts. They'd be expected to give up at least 1 (2.07 ERA) and more likely 2 (4.14 ERA) over that span. This means the Twins would have needed to score 6-7 runs to win the game, reasonably. Gray had a couple starts in a row where he was lucky and the runners didn't cross the plate on him much, but that caught up to him a little.
  14. bean5302
    Archer has 0.4 fWAR this year. Not sure what's impressing you about him. I'm sure Archer is going to opt into his $10MM (mutual) option, though I'd hope the Twins do not. Bundy is a fair candidate for the Twins to bring back, but only if his results start mirroring his metrics. The long ball is destroying him in much the same way Tyler Duffey was experiencing. There aren't better $10MM options on the free agency market?
  15. bean5302
    Joe Ryan is a young guy and still trying to work out how his stuff plays against MLB batters who are also making adjustments. It's a game of chess right now, but Ryan's striking guys out well enough and showing solid enough control to stick. He is a fly ball pitcher so learning how to keep those balls in the park is going to be critical to his development. Ryan does not have the stuff to be a front line starter. His fastball is really deceptive, but his offspeed and breaking pitches haven't been effective this year. He's going to need to learn what works to set those bendy pitches up if he's going to reach his ceiling of a mid rotation arm. I feel confident saying he's at least got a spot in the rotation, though.
  16. bean5302
    There can also be some decisions based on what teams have roster space. Rookie Ball is unlimited, but the full season leagues are limited to 28-30 players and those MiLB teams are usually essentially at the limits. With the trade deadline in play and a lot of prospects being moved around, the Twins might keep people in Rookie Ball until they figure out where to move everybody around. Not so long ago, there were extended trade deadlines which might have impacted roster decisions longer into the season.
  17. bean5302
    Yes. It matters. Blue Jays at Rogers Center or Mariners at Target Field. If that doesn't matter to you, then I guess you don't care if the Twins win. It's also not based on 1 game. It's based on the Twins slowly giving up ground, then being passed based on overall play since the end of May.
  18. bean5302
    Ryan is pitching just like he was, he's just not getting lucky. He's experiencing regression to the mean. Joe Ryan is not and has never been the kind of pitcher you'd rely upon to lead a rotation. Joe Ryan - April/June vs. July/Aug 3.20 ERA & 4.65 xFIP vs. 5.33 ERA & 4.61 xFIP He's literally the same pitcher.
  19. bean5302
    For the love of all that is good, Jimmy Nelson needs to give his number to "W.D. Smith" so he can use the nickname WD40.
  20. bean5302
    I'm not actually sure what the intent of this article is? Does it matter how the Twins get into the postseason? Yes. A huge, huge yes. As a Wildcard team, they'll have no bye week and they won't have home field advantage. As a division winner, lets be honest, they won't get a bye week because the Astros and Yankees are 14 games up from the Twins and it's inconceivable the Twins could close that gap, but the Twins would play the WORST Wildcard team. By the way, that's the Mariners right now with the Orioles 1/2 game back. Or the Twins could play the best Wildcard team. As of today? Blue Jays. Who would you rather play? Blue Jays on the road or Mariners/Orioles at home? Yeah. That's what I thought. Side note, as of today, the Twins wouldn't make the playoffs at all. Kind of reminds me of a Minnesota Swarm game I attended many years ago. The crowd was going to get free "Chips and Guac" from Chipotle if the Swarm won... but as the game went on and the Swarm fell further and further behind it was if the Swarm tied. Then it was if the Swarm lost by less than 3. Kind of a moving target thing. I think it's good to remain optimistic, even if I don't come across that way when I post. By the way... ancient history spoiler alert? The Swarm whooped their opponent with an epic comeback to the cheers of "Chips and Guac!!!!" from the fans every time a goal was scored.
  21. bean5302
    Running down the list: 1. Gray 2. Mahle 3. Ryan 4. Maeda Those are our (4) MLB caliber starters out of the 5 we need. I don't think we have too much pitching. In bold, the potential opening day rotation and candidates. Stretch Out Candidate: *Duran - Yep. That Duran. He wants to start and I could see the Twins stretching him into the role to see how it pans out because he's worth far, far more if he's effective in the rotation. Injury Replacement Depth Caliber: *Dobnak - Spot starter, swingman, long reliever talent. *Smeltzer - Same as Dobnak Still injured: *Paddack - It wouldn't be reasonable to "expect" Paddack back before mid-season. He had TJ on 5/11/22. A 12 month timetable is extremely aggressive with 15 months more reasonable and 18 months a possibility. So maybe after All Star break is a better expectation. Bullpen Destined *Ober - Long and storied history of injuries and ailments from high school on. *Winder - Can't pitch more than a couple dozen innings before his shoulder flares up. *Sands - Without a lot of velocity (throws 90-92) and not a ton of control, Sands has been barreled up well so far this year. Probably better out of the pen, but not a guy I'd want to stick in the rotation. Question Marks/Prospects *Canterino - Best case scenario. I think he's likely going to need TJ sooner than later. UCL strain two years in a row. *Woods-Richardson - He might be able to slot into the rotation and be good, but he's missed an awful lot of time and he's been pretty sporadic in terms of results. *Varland - I think the Twins are going to want to watch him for a bit at AAA. His stuff was effective "enough" at AA, but I think he's at his limits. Just have to see if he can push past those limits with a little more work. Low Prospects Living on the Edge of the 40 Man: *Enlow - He'll need to show improved results to remain a starter candidate, and he IS looking better, but I don't think he's going to get into the MLB rotation next year. He'll need to be stretched out in the minors and he'll be under an innings limit so by the time he's ready for MLB action, he'll be close to that limit. *Balazovic - Consistently annihilated within 3 innings every outing in AAA. He's a non-prospect at this point.
  22. bean5302
    I could definitely see him taking a deal for Korea or Japan where Sano might earn $1-2MM per year if he doesn't receive an MLB offer. Top salaries in Korea are about $2MM and Japan about $4MM. Sano will almost certainly have to take an MLB deal at league minimum or close to it, if he even gets an MLB contract, which I doubt he will. There's just no reason to risk an MLB contract for a player who has 1 year in the past 5 where he was well worth a roster spot.
  23. bean5302
    Top 3 weaknesses in regard to what? Making the playoffs? Advancing in the playoffs? I think the Twins have a pretty good shot at the playoffs right now. The roster is pretty solidly constructed. It's not a great team, but it's a good one without a lot of weaknesses, to be honest. Just "good" across the board. There is a big problem looming, though, and that's continuing depth due to a lot of injuries. Kepler's playing with a broken toe... When Kirilloff gets added, the Twins will have 11 players on the 60 day IL and some of those names would have been pretty dang important. 1 to 5 scale, 5 being excellent, 4 great, 3 good, 2 adequate, 1 poor. SP1 - Gray (4) SP2 - Mahle (3) - I am not nearly as bullish on Mahle as many SP3 - Ryan (2) SP4 - Bundy (2) SP5 - Archer (1) Sum = 2.4 avg. BP1 - Lopez (5) BP2 - Duran (4) BP3 - Fulmer (4) BP4 - Thielbar (3) BP5 - Jax (3) BP6 - Megill (3) BP7 - Pagan (1) BP8 - Sands (1) Sum = 3.0 avg. C - Sanchez (2) 1B - Arraez (4) 2B - Polanco (4) 3B - Urshela (2) SS - Correa (4) LF - Cave (2) CF - Buxton (5) RF - Kepler (3) DH - Miranda (3) Sum = 3.33 avg. UO - Gordon (3) UO - Celestino (1) UI - Beckham (2) C2 - Leon (1) Sum = 1.75 avg. The depth at St. Paul is actually pretty solid, surprisingly. Catcher being the lone black hole. If the Twins need an outfielder, easy to call on Contreras. Infielder? Palacios. Rotation? Smeltzer and Sanchez. Relief pitcher? Henriquez. Nothing I'd want to count on as an every day player replacement, really, but honestly nobody I believe would be worse than a scrub level guy, either. Once you get past the surface, though, it's a chasm of question marks, duct tape and super glue. As far as playoffs... there's nobody in the rotation I have faith in as a #1-2 guy leading the way right now. Gray's been pretty rough lately (4.91 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.66 xFIP, 7.67 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 over his last 6 starts) and I want to see Mahle pitch a few games for the Twins before I anoint him an Ace as some of the community have. I think the Twins are solid everywhere else. Unfortunately, when it comes to the playoffs, the teams aren't just solid, they're great. Compared to other playoff teams, I think the Twins are a little weaker.
  24. bean5302

    Where's Wallner?

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Not sure why people mention "athleticism" with Wallner. He's been scouted as being a butcher in the field, but with a great arm. Maybe Wallner is improving in the field, too, but that's hard to judge without watching him and having better and more reliable metrics at the MLB level.
  25. bean5302
    It doesn't ignore the graduates and it doesn't ignore the trades. I talked about them. Guess you didn't read that far...
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