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The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason with a few essential needs. Derek Falvey will need to supplement a roster that made noise in the American League Division Series and to do so, fresh faces will need to be brought in. What's the most we might expect the team to spend on a single free-agent splash? Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli’s team went through plenty of ebbs and flows last season. Although they were arguably the best team in the AL Central, wire to wire, the performance saw ups and downs. A handful of veterans provided a steadying presence, and there were more than a few youngsters who stepped up in big spots. With the departure of eight key players, the biggest being Sonny Gray, Minnesota has some significant holes to fill. It remains to be seen what the payroll will look like in 2024, and there is some uncertainty there, given the number of questions facing the Twins from a TV revenue standpoint. But if they're willing to at least get back to the payroll level from this year, they're going have some room for a potential major signing. If ever there was a time do it, it's now. The Twins are heading straight into a clear contention window, meaning a successful big-name signing has the potential for maximum impact. How they handle this free agent crop remains to be seen, but these are some of the names that stand out if the front office has a green light to go big. SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto Of the names listed, this is the most unlikely. Yamamoto has been Japan’s best pitcher in the past two seasons, and he looked dominant during the World Baseball Classic. At just 25 years old, he will sign a long-term deal with someone. That hasn’t been the Twins' traditional plan for pitchers, but this could be a spot where they find value, given the mix of youth and talent. He should be expected to eclipse a $200 million deal, which is a lot to ask Minnesota after paying for Correa, but getting him for $30 million AAV or less would be a big win. SP Jordan Montgomery Maybe I’m underestimating what his market will be, and he certainly earned himself more dollars this postseason, but I think both Aaron Nola and Blake Snell get paid more. If that is the case, Montgomery is the kind of arm Minnesota could target. They’d need to shell out more than $100 million, and it will be a long-term deal for a guy who’s already 30, but he’s less of a risk than bringing Gray back for more than two years would be. Montgomery would also give the Twins a lefty in the rotation. SP Eduardo Rodriguez This is probably closer to the threshold on pitching for the Twins. Rodriguez likely will come in under $100 million, and he probably isn’t getting an opt-out clause this time. You’d need to do a significant amount of background work on health, both mentally and physically, to make sure Rodriguez is ready to go. He can be an excellent add for Minnesota, though, and already has shown an ability to pitch well in the American League Central. SP Michael Wacha Likely available for something closer to a two-year deal, Wacha doesn’t have close to the upside of Gray, but he could slot in nicely as a number three pitcher for Minnesota. Lucas Giolitio and Seth Lugo are likely both within this range as well. Much lower than this, from a talent perspective, put the Twins in a weird spot trying to replace Gray, but this is a good mix of dollars and talent to tread water. Getting any of these arms for around $15 million yearly would work. Only within the context of Minnesota's history in free agency would guys like Wacha, Giolito and Lugo qualify as "big-money signings" but here we are. It’s hard to believe that the Twins would get into a bidding war for someone like Nola, Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, or Josh Hader. Those types will have plenty of suitors, and they’ll likely command the most dollars among players at their positions. It stands to reason that Minnesota will spend. They have shown consistency in that regard, but they’ll pick their spots and be calculated with who they choose to go after. Ultimately, I think anything over $22 million from an average annual value perspective will be a stretch. That means the top of the pitching market is something the Twins will shy away from. They could bring in an arm via trade, as they did with Pablo Lopez, and they would then have the opportunity to extend that player. Assuming something like $50 million exists in the budget for 2024, spending half or more on one player probably isn’t happening. There are bats that should be available range this year, though, I think it’s unlikely Minnesota finds any of them worthy of a long-term deal. Finding someone for a right-handed bopping role shouldn't cost substantially, and that's where the Twins stand to benefit most. Regardless of it being in the field or on the mound, handing out a contract totaling more than $60 million over the duration seems unlikely. It may be an offseason of hired help on one-year deals. Last season, aside from Correa, the most Minnesota spent on a single player was Vazquez's $30 million, which was broken down to three $10 million annual terms. I’d bet the high water mark for 2024 is much closer to that total than it is to $20 million or more. If there’s a way to get Gray back on a two-year deal, he’ll probably be the standard, but that would reflect good fortune for the Twins. View full article

Four of the Twins' five rotation spots are occupied for the 2024 season. With the fifth spot up for grabs, should the Twins pursue one of these three top-tier left-handed starting pitchers? Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez - USA TODAY Sports The Twins haven't had a left-handed starting pitcher to be optimistic about since the departure of Francisco Liriano during the 2012 Trade Deadline. Despite that, the Twins are in a unique position this offseason, planning to fill their last rotation spot through free agency, trade, or a young right-handed internal option in Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, or David Festa. Though the Twins will likely seriously consider pursuing right-handed pitching free-agent options like Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha, and Lucas Giolito, they may pursue the first optimism-inducing left-handed starting pitcher since Liriano left over 10 years ago. There is a surplus of second and third-tier left-handed starting pitching options the Twins could pursue in Wade Miley, James Paxton, and Hyun Jin Ryu, but there are three top-tier options the Twins should seriously consider signing. Here are three top-tier free-agent left-handed starting pitchers the Twins should consider signing: Blake Snell - 32 G, 180 IP, 31.5% K%, 13.3% BB%, 44.4% GB%, 2.25 ERA, 3.44 WHIP, 4.1 fWAR - San Diego Padres The first top-tier left-handed starting pitcher the Twins should consider signing comes in the form of soon-to-be 2023 NL Cy Young Award-winner Blake Snell. The most crucial characteristic of Snell's to note is that he is a highly volatile pitcher whose performance level undergoes extreme transformations. For example, from March 30 to May 19, Snell had a 5.40 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 18.8% HR/FB, 73.2% LOB%, and 27 walks and 48 strikeouts over 45 innings pitched and 202 total batters faced for the San Diego Padres. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Snell's performance improved significantly, and he pitched himself to a 1.55 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 8.2% HR/FB, 90.3% LOB%, and 74 walks and 191 strikeouts over 139 IP and 559 total batters faced from late-May to the end of the 2023 regular season. Despite the extreme fluctuation in performance during the 2023 season, Snell is usually a predictably formidable left-handed pitcher who can dominate lineups at a rate very few can achieve. Snell's pitch mix includes the following: (*Percentages indicate how often Snell threw each pitch.) 4-Seam Fastball - (48.6%) Curveball - (19.8%) Changeup - (18.4%) Slider - (13.1%) Like most pitchers, Snell relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball, but he is unique in how equally distributed his off-speed pitches are. Snell's nearly identical curveball and changeup usage mixed with not-far-behind slider usage leaves hitters guessing, especially when he is ahead in counts. Snell is a high strikeout and swing-and-miss pitcher, evidenced by his 94th-percentile K% and 98th-percentile Whiff%. This archetype would fit perfectly with a Twins starting rotation that broke their single-season franchise strikeout record during the 2023 season. Snell's high K% and Whiff% are his greatest strengths as a starting pitcher. Unfortunately, the monkey's paw, of sorts, of Snell's high strikeout rate is that he gives up an immense amount of walks, evidenced by his 4th-percentile BB%. When assessing the risk of offering a 30-year-old pitcher a five-year contract worth over $100 million, teams must take Snell's volatile nature and high walk rate into account. Now, this type of financial commitment to a soon-to-be two-time Cy Young Award winner is nothing to large market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers that can afford this deal to blow up in their face (SEE: Carlos Rodón). Unfortunately, the Twins don't live in a world where they can take risks like this. Risk is a vehicle by which privilege reinforces itself, meaning only the privileged can take risks, and only risks are rewarded. The Twins can afford to have one behemoth contract, and that contract belongs to Carlos Correa. The Twins will have to be savvy and calculated with every other move they make, and signing Snell to an egregiously bloated contract would be neither savvy nor calculated. In a world where self-imposed spending restrictions didn't exist, Snell would be a perfect fit for the Twins. The Twins need a frontline start to complement Pablo López, and Snell is precisely that. Snell is signed to Boras Corporation, which famously has a great relationship with Derek Falvey, and this iteration of the Twins front office has expressed interest in trading for him in the past. However, to think the Twins have a legitimate chance of signing him this upcoming offseason is merely a hoop dream and nothing else. Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Snell: Five years, $122 million ($24.4 million AAV) Eduardo Rodriguez - 26 G, 152 2/3 IP, 23% K%, 7.7% BB%, 3.30 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.0 fWAR The next left-handed starting pitcher the Twins should consider signing comes in the form of former divisional foe Eduardo Rodriguez. When healthy, Rodriguez is a force to be reckoned with. Similarly to Snell, Rodriguez is a left-handed pitcher who can overpower hitters through his deep assortment of offspeed pitches. Rodriguez's pitch mix includes the following: 4-Seam Fastball (45.4%) Cutter (19.3%) Changeup (18.9%) Sinker (9.3%) Slider (7.2%) Similarly to former Rays great starting pitcher David Price, Rodriguez uses his sinker and cutter to paint the outside corner of the strike zone as an east-to-west pitcher. Rodriguez also uses his elite changeup as a knockout pitch for left and right-handed hitters. Now, the first two things that come to mind to those who follow baseball when Rodriguez's name is mentioned are his extended three-month leave of absence from the Detroit Tigers during the 2022 season and the fact that he exercised his no-trade clause to block a trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers during the 2023 Trade Deadline. These two occurrences have made some unfairly hypercritical of Rodriguez, his desire to win, and his love for baseball. These critiques are unfair, as we have minimal context as to why Rodriguez left the Tigers for three months in 2022 and blocked a trade to the Dodgers in 2023. When assessing whether or not the Twins should pursue Rodriguez, it is unfair to put much weight on these two occurrences. There is little reason to suspect Rodriguez wouldn't start a satisfactory amount of games for the Twins, as he has started a combined 108 games over the past four seasons. Nevertheless, this iteration of the Twins front office has expressed interest in both signing and trading for Rodriguez in years past. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic even reported that the Twins discussed acquiring Rodriguez from the Tigers during the 2023 Trade Deadline before talks fell apart after he blocked a trade to the Dodgers. Much like Snell, Rodriguez would be a risk worth taking for the Twins, but it is doubtful the Twins front office would be comfortable pulling the trigger on a five-year deal worth roughly $100 million. Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Rodriguez: Five years, $90 million ($18 million AAV) Jordan Montgomery - 32 G, 188 2/3 IP, 21.4% K%, 6.2 BB%, 3.20 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 4.3 fWAR The final top-tier left-handed pitching free agent comes in the form of World Series champion Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery is a top-tier left-handed starting pitcher, but he isn't on the same level as Snell and Rodriguez talent-wise. In fact, Montgomery is the exact opposite of Snell in that he is a low-walk, low-strike-out pitcher, evidenced by his 34th-percentile K% and 82nd-percentile BB%. Montgomery effectively deceives hitters with his large assortment of offspeed pitches that complement his low-to-mid-90s sinker. Here is Montgomery's pitch mix: Sinker (42.6%) Changeup (23%) Curveball (22.2%) 4-Seam Fastball (10.7%) Cutter (1.6%) Montgomery separates himself from Snell and Rodriguez by not being as reliant on his traditional 4-seam fastball. Montgomery instead uses his lower-velocity but higher-movement sinker to get hitters to chase to set up his wide-array offspeed pitches, a coup de grâce for hitters behind in the count. Montgomery's ability to masterfully manage games and keep his team's head consistently above water by maneuvering out sticky situations was on full display against the Houston Astros. Montgomery picked apart the Astros' right-handed dominant lineup and was seemingly the only immovable object that could stop the impenetrable force that is the left-handed power-hitting phenom Yordan Alvarez. Montgomery continued his elite postseason performance into the World Series, cinching the red-hot flame that was the Arizona Diamondbacks' offense and helping the Texas Rangers win their first World Series in franchise history. Montgomery, represented by frequent Twins collaborator Boras Corporation, will likely demand a five-year contract worth around $100 million like Snell and Rodriguez. The Twins are unlikely to hand a contract out that large, and spending that much money on a middle-of-the-rotation type pitcher riding the high of a great postseason feels like a misallocation of funds. Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Montgomery: Five years, $127 million ($25.4 million AAV) The Twins will look to find a fifth starter for their final rotation spot this upcoming offseason. Whether it will be done by acquiring a pitcher through trade, signing a free agent, or promoting a young internal option has yet to be decided. Regardless of what the Twins do, deviating from the franchise norm and pursuing a top-tier left-handed starting pitcher like Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery could be in their best interest. Should the Twins consider signing a top-tier left-handed pitcher? Would you prefer Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery? Comment below. View full article

We’re just a couple weeks away from the final game of the 2023 Major League Baseball regular season. As postseason races start to take shape, putting a bow on the year that was is necessary. 2023 represented a return to normal baseball for the first year in a while, and we got plenty of highlight performances to watch along the way. I didn’t write a preseason prediction piece this year, but shared some award thoughts on Twitter. A few of these appear to have aged well, while more have gone completely off the rails. In turning in my IBWAA Award Ballot, here’s what I came up with. American League MVP: Shohei Ohtani (Runner Up: Corey Seager) National League MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr.(Runner Up: Mookie Betts) American League Cy Young: Gerrit Cole (Runner Up: Sonny Gray) National League Cy Young: Blake Snell (Runner Up: Justin Steele) American League Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson (Runner Up: Royce Lewis) National League Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll (Runner Up: Matt McLain) American League Manager of the Year: Brandon Hyde (Runner Up: Bruce Bochy) National League Manager of the Year: Brian Snitker (Runner Up: Craig Counsell) American League Reliever of the Year: Felix Bautista (Runner Up: Jordan Romano) National League Reliever of the Year: David Bednar (Runner Up: Josh Hader) For more from Off The Baggy, click here.

Last season, just before Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins got on the horn with the San Diego Padres and made a move. Fast forward to where we are now, and it’s not unfathomable to think that A.J. Preller could be open for business again. Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey sent Taylor Rogers (and Brent Rooker) to the San Diego Padres a season ago. He dealt his closer in hopes of getting immediate value in Emilio Pagan while taking a flier on the health of Chris Paddack. It didn’t work out well for anyone in year one, but Minnesota has a second season of their return to right that ship. This time around, the Twins could aim a bit higher. Currently, the Padres project to have a top-five payroll across Major League Baseball. They shocked the sport when signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal. He’ll be into his 40s by the time that wraps up, and they already have a star shortstop in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr., though; that is where opportunity may lie. It seems hard to believe the Padres would want to piece parts out going into the season. The Los Angeles Dodgers are not better than last year, and San Diego is attempting to win the NL West. If there is a logical candidate in the near term, it’s probably shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Although Tatis is suspended for a PED violation, Bogaerts can take over at shortstop, and Kim could be flipped to gather another asset of need. The former KBO standout is not otherworldly, but he did post a 107 OPS+ last season while playing 150 games. He is a solid defender, and Kim represents an upgrade over assumed Opening Day starter Kyle Farmer. He’s only 27 years old and doesn’t hit free agency until 2027, so the acquisition cost likely would not be cheap. The Padres present some intriguing opportunities that could come once the season begins. If they don’t play to expectations early, there are a handful of talents the organization could piece out. It’s a near certainty that Manny Machado will opt out of his deal and become a free agent again next offseason, making him an attractive rental option. Tatis Jr. could also be moved if the Padres decided his immaturity wasn’t worth keeping around. A young superstar on a long-term deal would net plenty and could be a way for San Diego to reposition themselves within the luxury tax. From a pitching perspective, I suggest Yu Darvish or Blake Snell could be had. Both have bigger dollars remaining, which could help offset whatever the prospect capital would be assumed in return. Darvish and Snell could easily slot in among the top of Minnesota’s rotation, and for a club looking to improve upon either Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, that would be a path to get there. It was good to see the Padres load up by adding Juan Soto last season, but it wasn’t enough to advance to the World Series, and there is little reason to assume he won’t be targeting the highest payday by waiting two years to reach free agency. If Preller decides that an extension before 2025 won’t happen, the way San Diego pivots throughout the next season and a half will be incredibly interesting. The Twins have substantial money to spend this offseason yet, and there needs to be more in the way of free agency to make that happen. Trading for salaries that may be bloated but would incorporate a talent boost for the roster is a way to make it happen. The front office hasn’t shied away from making multiple deals with the same teams, and they could go down that path again here. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are entering the 2022 Major League Baseball offseason with somewhere between $45-65 million at their disposal just to reach last year’s payroll. With plenty of the roster penciled, how much of that can be ticketed for pitching, and who makes the most sense? Image courtesy of Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Last season, there was hand-wringing virtually every time Rocco Baldelli took a stroll out to the mound. No matter the circumstance, it was often seen as a quick hook and undeserving for the starting pitcher to be lifted. At the end of the summer, I took a look at why short starts aren’t really just a Minnesota thing, and the greatest difference maker being the acquisition of better starters. You can expect Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Joe Ryan all to be in Pete Maki’s Opening Day rotation for 2023. What they do from there though is where this discussion begins. After opting for the likes of Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer last season, there was very little upside to the back of Minnesota’s rotation. Ryan was named the Opening Day starter despite having made just five turns in the big leagues. Bailey Ober looked the part but had been an injury concern previously, and it didn’t take long for that to manifest again in 2022. Realistically speaking, Minnesota has no room for another middling type. It’s necessary for them to go get a top-of-the-rotation arm and use the likes of Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and others as depth. So, where could that lead them? Starting with the free agent market, there are more than a few names to rule out. I don’t foresee Minnesota as a landing spot for Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw probably doesn’t ever want a new uniform. Justin Verlander has a player option, and Chris Sale continues to be unhealthy. The most logical option is probably Carlos Rodon, who the Twins were in on before he signed with the San Francisco Giants. Coming off another dominant season, and one of health, he’s in line for a payday and will have plenty of suitors. Both Noah Syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi could fit the bill as well, though their effectiveness is questionable to varying degrees. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson, and Mike Clevinger could all also be of intrigue. Looking at the trade landscape, a team Minnesota seems to matchup well with is the Miami Marlins. If they are open to moving Pablo Lopez, it’s hard to argue that Max Kepler wouldn’t be a fit there. Maybe the Diamondbacks are willing to part with Zac Gallen (who the Marlins once traded), or the Padres could be amenable to finding someone willing to take on Blake Snell’s contract. Merrill Kelly is another Arizona arm that should draw intrigue, and if Derek Falvey wants to gamble on an aging friend, Corey Kluber may be worth a shot. Realistically, the names above all provide differing levels of expected production. What the Twins will be tasked with is deciding who they think can surpass the bar set by Sonny Gray. Maeda is a question mark coming off of Tommy John surgery, but we’ve seen him throw at a very high level previously. Mahle looks the part of a breakout star waiting to happen, and it’s no doubt part of the reason he was targeted from the Reds. Ryan has been fine, but the numbers against quality opponents are reason for concern. If he’s the 5th starter though, the quality of the rotation goes up substantially. An overhaul at the back of the bullpen can help to supplement what the Twins want to do in 2023, but the more they can rely on their starters, the better the staff as a whole will be. Even if the Twins find a way to bring Carlos Correa back on a big-time contract, they’ll have money to spend on pitching, and doing so while so much of the nucleus is in a cost-controlled situation makes plenty of sense. Falvey was brought in to develop pitching, and while we haven’t seen it in droves, there are success stories. Paying for top starters is tough, so is acquiring them, but it may be more straightforward than waiting for the next breakout to come. View full article

Just prior to Opening Day 2022 the Minnesota Twins shuffled their roster when they got together with the San Diego Padres for a trade. Over the winter, these two could again match up as partners swapping assets. Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine swung a deal with San Diego the day before Opening Day when they sent closer Taylor Rogers (and Brent Rooker) to the Bay Area in exchange for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. The former looked the part of a strong asset until he underwent Tommy John surgery early in the year, while the latter was held onto through a season of ineffectiveness. I’d assume both parties still have each others’ numbers, and with the Twins needing high-end starting pitching, it makes sense to call a team with excess in that category. Truly it’s too bad that Joe Musgrove got paid this season with the Padres. Dating back to his time with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he should’ve been one of the most coveted arms in baseball. The stuff has always been amazing and he simply needed someone to unlock it. Regardless, I digress. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea will be free agents following the World Series. Both would represent an upgrade for the Twins, and either could’ve been a trade deadline target should the team have opted for it. Obviously Falvey has a substantial amount of familiarity with Clevinger due to their shared time in Cleveland, and he could be willing to reunite. Manaea was among the two pieces (alongside Frankie Montas) that Oakland was always expected to move, and they did so in early April. Money is the only thing necessary to negotiate terms with either of those two arms. Prospect capital could be used on either Yu Darvish or Blake Snell. San Diego’s depth this offseason won’t look like what it did over the summer, but maybe they’re still willing to part with one of their highly paid arms. Darvish is entering the final year of a deal he signed with the Chicago Cubs. In 2023 he’ll make $18 million, and Minnesota general manager Thad Levine is plenty familiar due to their time together with Texas. Darvish lost most of his first year with the Cubs to injuries, but has been great since then. Similar to Darvish, Snell will be entering the final year of a five-year deal he initially signed with Tampa Bay. Snell does have incentives tied to his contract, but the former Cy Young winner is set to make just $16.6 million in 2023. That number is likely well below what he’d get on the open market, and is someone the Twins could have interest in an extension with as he’ll be just 30-years-old next season. Although neither price tag will rival that of what top starters receive in 2023 on the open market, the dollar amount is enough that it should demand a prospect return. The Padres will be looking to reload following an NLCS exit in the postseason. They now have Juan Soto to lock up, and will return Fernando Tatis Jr. next season. Minnesota has ample opportunity to add top pitching talent this winter, and one of the questions they face is how they'd most like to do that. The farm system isn't loaded with elite prospects, but taking on salary could help to make quantity type trades more feasible. Money is also there to be spent, even if it's on a contract they didn't negotiate. View full article

The Minnesota Twins will need to be buyers during this trade deadline season, and their chief concern comes on the mound. While there’s any number of names they could target, working with a contender may actually be an avenue as well. What if the San Diego Padres are willing to move Blake Snell? San Diego acquired the former Cy Young Award winner from the Tampa Bay Rays in a 4-for-1 swap. Blake Snell has been with the Padres for two seasons now, but is a free agent after the 2023 campaign. While he wasn’t one of the 49 names previously discussed as a trade candidate, it’s becoming more evident that even a winner like San Diego may be open to moving him. Dennis Lin covers the Padres for The Athletic and had this to say in his latest mailbag, “If the Padres trade a starting pitcher, they likely would prefer to move Blake Snell. He’s making $5 million more than Mike Clevinger, and unsurprisingly, the team has been frustrated with the left-hander’s lack of performance. It would be selling low on Snell, but the Padres want to clear payroll for other needs.” After posting a 1.89 ERA with the Rays during his Cy Young season in 2018, he’s since failed to post an ERA below 3.00. With the Padres, Snell has made 36 starts and owns a 4.32 ERA. His ERA+ in that time sits at only 90. The good news is that Snell has continued to be a dominant strikeout arm, and he’s actually been better at limiting the longball. His 3.75 FIP also suggests that he’s also a bit better than the ERA picture paints. San Diego has an embarrassment of riches on the mound right now, and that affords them the luxury of moving someone like Snell. While he’s not in a great place from a production standpoint, he’s still plenty capable of being a top-of-the-rotation arm. Mike Clevinger could be a name teams are interested in as well, but San Diego dumping Snell’s salary would be a benefit to a team dealing with Luxury Tax ramifications. Looking at Snell’s advanced analytics and underlying numbers, much of what made him a Cy Young winner still remains. His hard hit rate hasn’t fluctuated, and he’s actually shaved roughly eight percent from his line drive rate. The velocity is as good as it’s ever been and his swing rates are also strong. By virtually all measurements, there’s no reason why Snell can’t contribute to a higher level than he has been. Although San Diego would be selling low given the current performance, I’d imagine much of a return for Snell would be reflective of the money a team needs to take on. Under contract for $13.1 million this season, Snell is set to be paid $16.6 million next year. That’s a good amount of salary to take on in the middle of the season, and is also a motivating factor for him to be moved by the Padres. The more San Diego eats, the better their expected return should be. That works on the flip side too, however, in that an acquiring team like the Twins may need to give up considerably less if they take on the entirety of his bill. The reality is that high-level starters are going to be highly-coveted on the trade market and there aren’t a ton of options to work with. Luis Castillo remains amazing for the Reds, but teammate Tyler Mahle is now on the injured list. Frankie Montas had a scare for Oakland, and his arm now has plenty of questions around it. Teams could dip down a level to the Pirates Jose Quintana, but the emergence of other options is beneficial. The Twins dealt with San Diego prior to Opening Day this season when they acquired Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan for Taylor Rogers. Maybe the two front offices get together again and can work out another pact for a second starter. What do you think? Would you be interested in the Twins adding Blake Snell? What level of a prospect are you comfortable giving up? View full article

Update: It appears that the Padres will be also landing Yu Darvish from the Cubs. While that takes a target away from the Twins, they have less competition on the Reds front. Arms like Joe Musgrove and Jon Gray also remain enticing. Late on Sunday night the market for starting pitching pursuits took a drastic change. After the Tampa Bay Rays had announced they’d make Blake Snell available, the San Diego Padres decided to cap off their Christmas weekend with a blockbuster trade. This provides a blueprint for the Minnesota Twins, and also removes some potential competition. Thus far during the offseason things have been quit from the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine camp. Minnesota has made a few smaller moves on the reliever front, but they have not addressed their rotation or lineup. For what seems like weeks we’ve now heard about the Twins being a team potential waiting in the weeds and ready to strike. One big name discussed has been that of Marcus Semien, but it remains true that starting pitching is a must. You can probably bet on veteran Rich Hill not being a guy brought back for 2021, and while Jake Odorizzi looks like one of the best arms not named Trevor Bauer, he will have some options. For Minnesota, sustainability could be the key and finding a trade partner with an arm having some team control could be as enticing as anything. Although it’s not known to what extent Minnesota may have been intrigued by Snell, the reality is he’s a good pitcher and was available. At the very least that made the two organizations a match. Following that logic, the Cubs and Yu Darvish as well as the Reds and their arms Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray could all be fits. Darvish comes with the hefty price tag, while both Gray and Castillo are more affordable options that should command a premium in prospect capital. It’s fine to still call this relatively early in the offseason, but the reality is that we’re over the halfway point. Despite the fact that Rob Manfred still hasn’t solidified the 2021 Major League Baseball schedule and we still have no idea what the exact set of rules are going to be, time is not waiting, and Spring Training will soon be around the corner. Minnesota’s front office hasn’t been afraid of being a last-minute suitor, but getting guys acclimate could hold some weight given how the Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison moves ultimately worked out. When the Padres decided to spring for Snell with a package centered around their second-best pitching prospect, they effectively took themselves out of any discussion regarding another deal. The money is still there for them to target Trevor Bauer, but they don’t seem likely to move Mackenzie Gore or C.J. Abrams, so swapping for another top arm would be difficult. This benefits the Twins as it’s one less club vying for the same prizes. Given the organization he played for it was probably a near-guarantee that Snell would be moved. I think Chicago still flips Darvish, but Jed Hoyer will want to get his first big move right. Castillo and Gray don’t necessarily need to be shipped out, but Cincinnati appears intent on tearing it down after a one-year run at going for it. Asking Minnesota to be engaged on all of those fronts is hardly a leap. It’s not yet clear where the Twins will turn, but I’d bet a decent amount that they have plenty of irons in the fire, and it’s clear there’s a decent amount of smoke. Having a better bargaining position than they did yesterday, and also a representative idea of a framework, Falvey and Levine have more clarity now than they may have a few days ago. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz