bean5302

https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#H.1.8.0.1.0.0 in case anybody wants to play with the tool

100% agree, and it won't stop at teams looking at 97% as the cutoff. They'll keep pushing and pushing. Top of the 8th inning, chances the visitor wins the game: 1 run lead = 75% 2 run lead = 87% 3 run lead = 94% 4 run lead = 97% 5 run lead = 98% top of the 9th visitor leading 1 run lead = 85% 2 run lead = 93% 3 run lead = 97% 4 run lead = 99% 5 run lead = 99% It gets even worse from a likelihood things turn around if the home team is winning, and visiting teams have no significant reason to care if the home town crowd is entertained. bottom of the 7th - home team lead 1 run lead = 82% 2 run lead = 91% 3 run lead = 96% 4 run lead = 98% 5 run lead = 99% bottom of the 8th - home team lead 1 run lead = 89% 2 run lead = 96% 3 run lead = 98% 4 run lead = 99% 5 run lead = 100% Statistically, if the bullpen has been significantly depleted up on the visiting team over the past few days, slapping a position player onto the mound starting with the bottom of the 7th down by 3+ runs is reasonable. Those games happen all the time and analytics will start driving the decision more and more, especially with the forced reduction in bullpens.

2:46 - 3-2 game, 8th inning. Detroit brings in position player to pitch vs. Twins. By your definition = blowout. This is the very first source I searched for. Almost all the examples used in the video are way into extra innings, but the fact I can find a perfect example in my first search attempt is enough for me.

Advanced defensive metrics are unreliable (at best) until a large enough sample size is created and Correa is no where near having that large enough sample size this year. A single expected play which doesn't go as "expected" has a big impact here. OAA isn't a garbage stat, but I also don't like the way it grades fielders on positions they're not playing. Correa is being negatively impacted by plays where he was graded as a second baseman even though he's never played second base this year. In years past, he was positive this way, I'd expect, and he should be since a SS would be expected to excel at 2B. Also, when it comes to Correa, UZR/150 is consistent on him and consistent with this year's performance calling him average. Career -2.7 UZR/150. This year, -1.5. Well within tolerances. I continue to favor UZR/150 as a defensive metric because it throws out the impact from the shift and seems to pass my eye test as well as being fairly consistent with expectations. A 1/2 season is no where near enough to fairly grade a player's defensive performance using these metrics, but if we were to take a wild stab at things... The Twins are +1.8 UZR/150 this year as a team, ranked 14th. 1B = 29th (6.9) 2B = 23rd (2.5) 3B = 20th (2.5) SS = 21st (3.1) LF = 5th 7.3 CF = 6th 8.1 RF = 17th (0.8)

The stat is designed to evaluate a player's value. Not that specific player's value to their specific team assuming that team's likely depth chart. Byron Buxton's value deflates enormously if you assume Max Kepler is the replacement.

Depends on what you would consider a blowout. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dodgers-blocked-from-pitching-position-player-after-unwittingly-violating-new-mlb-rule-vs-mets/#:~:text=Picks-,Dodgers blocked from pitching position player after unwittingly violating new,Mets&text=The Los Angeles Dodgers were,recent addition to the rulebook. The Dodgers tried to bring in a position player when they were down by 5. That's not a blowout in a lot of people's books. The crew blocked the position player from pitching by enforcing a new rule, but the fact the rule had to be created suggests MLB disagrees position players lobbing 40mph Eephus pitches was limited to blowouts.

Gordon was a fireball pitcher in high school and now he's an outfielder... do I smell the next Shohei Ohtani???? That way we can have the next Mike Trout (Buxton) and the next Shohei Ohtani (Gordon) on the same team!!!

Urshela Apr - .279/.348/.328 wRC+ 99 May - .256/.307/.433 wRC+ 108 Jun - .254/.296/.433 wRC+ 106 While Urshela has seen some pop return to his bat after a cool start to the season, it's not like his overall bat has improved much. Unfortunately, moving a weak value third baseman may not be all that easy. Most contending teams are in good shape at the hot corner. The Angels just lost Anthony Rendon and Urshela would slide in nicely as a replacement there if Minnesota was willing to eat some salary, but not sure there's a good fit outside the Angels, who may be sellers rather than buyers.

Replacement is an expected performance of an average AAA player.

Little article from 10 years ago for people who've forgotten about the Miguel Sano age controversy. What if Sano really was 3 years older and now he's 32 instead of 29? In any case, the Twins were comfortable with signing him regardless of what they felt like his real age was. I'm also on the fence of whether I think the Twins are likely to pick up Kepler's option considering how Kepler is playing now. Kepler is an adequate starting outfielder in terms of value, a 2 WAR kinda guy. That's not a guy you need to replace, but not a guy you build a team around, either. With a swing that looks very pretty but spends too little time in the meat of the contact zone and an extreme pull tendency, he just doesn't forecast as a guy who'll ever make the most of his plate discipline. It's the same gripe many people have had with Kepler over the years. It just FEELS like he could hit .300 with 25 HR instead of .225 with 30 HR if he wanted to. I don't think this front office makes any decisions based on popularity, but even if they did, Kepler doesn't feel like a fan favorite. Polanco... In a position where the Twins have far too much depth already, I thought Polanco's position was set in stone at the end of last year. Arraez slumped badly down the stretch last year causing his stock to fall quite a bit and he was banged up quite a bit last year as well. This year, he's on pace for 139 games and I could see him playing in even more than that... and he's taken a big step forward at the plate. He's even showing signs of developing more pop lately. I still feel strongly that one of Polanco or Arraez NEEDS to be traded. The Twins are wasting value putting a middle infielder at DH or 1B. Even now, Polanco arguably has more value, but he's also more expensive.

I'm not sure as the front office is truly going to start advocating attempts to steal more often, but it's excellent practice to get players tuned in to reading pitchers habits and base running skills in general. Being in the right position and getting the right jump can make all the difference when scoring from 1st base on a double or scoring from 2nd base on a single.

Since I've already stirred enough pots in regard to heated on the field debates, it's time to take it off the field to the stands! There have been a number of posts regarding the cost of food and drink at Target Field scaring away the fans, but I'm going to give a run down on many of the items and locations and whether you should eat or avoid! First off, beer. If you fancy a pint at the game, there is an enormous selection of craft beers to pair with foods along with old-timey American style lagers perfect for a hot day at the park. I'm not going to list them all because... yeah, that's a lot. Location wise, the best concentration of craft options is right at Gate 34. Selections from Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale to Surly Furious and Goose Island Beer Hug IPAs and smooth sessionable Vienna (basically a red) style's like Schell's Firebrick are on tap here. If you're a Surly fan, right behind the left field bleachers and Gray Goose bar is a Surly stand with options you won't find elsewhere like Surly Hell. There are also "Minnesota Brews" stands around the stadium behind the Diamond Box areas where you can find a Grain Belt for nostalgia's sake. Other options are scattered around as well. The selection on the upper deck is much more limited to the usual suspects. My favorites: Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale (Gate 34), Beer Hug Hazy IPA (Gate 34), Surly Hell (behind Section 128) and Grain Belt (behind section 126). Best Full Belly Deal at the Game: Burger and fries basket. It's $15 at Hennepin Grill locations around the stadium, but the burger is big, tastes flame grilled and a solid enough choice. The fries are medium cut, crispy-ish outside, fluffy inside and taste rich like they've been fried in peanut oil. It's a good sized meal. Senior Smokes: (105, 305) Barbacoa burrito. $10.50. It's not quite the gut stretcher the burger and fries is, but it's also only $10.50 in comparison to $15. It's a solid burrito near burrito specialty chain quality. Best Budget Option: The hot dog or soft pretzel at various locations. They're $4.00 out the door and are enough to tide you over for a bit. Bring an empty water bottle in with you and get free water from various stations as well. Best Burger(s): Red Cow 60/40 Bacon (2) Sliders w/chips. $15.50 located behind section 126 Why the chips that nobody wants? I don't know. Anyway, the sliders themselves are Red Cow name worthy. They're absolutely excellent and pretty filling. Could use a little something vinegary like mustard or ketchup to break up the fatty flavor. Blue Door Pub a 2nd place finish here goes to the $13.50 "Jucy Blusy" Cease and Desist Burger located at Gate 34 at the Jack Daniels Bar. It's very good and full sized, but the combo of thousand island and mayo is a bit sticky and bland. Don't expect fast service for either of these burgers. There's always a line for the sliders (and they frequently run out for a bit of time at 126) and it seems like Jucy Blusy is cooked to order. Best Sausages: Kramarczuk's Bratwurst. $10 (behind field box 101, home plate box 112 and upstairs 312). It's a much better quality brat than the $8.50 standard option around the stadium. The polish is so greasy and salty (like polish sausage is) it makes for a real gut-bomb in my opinion. Other Sandwich Options: Turkey to Go sandwich $11 next to Hrbek's (114). Make sure you get one fresh made and they press the jerked turkey hard to get the juice out. Otherwise, you'll get a rather disgusting pile of slop bun. If made right, Turkey to Go is fantastic. Use the BBQ sauce if you want or skip it if you don't want it. Good either way. Side note, this is like the only station at the stadium which doesn't have an option to tip in the checkout app. What a bummer for the staff. Philly Cheesesteak. $11. I think I stumbled across this one over behind section 110ish. Gross. Virtually inedible. While the grilled onions and peppers are very good and the cheese sauce is okay, the meat? (is it meat??) is like unseasoned sloppy joe mix or something. It's not right, best described as slop, and I didn't finish it. I like just about all food for the record. Murray's Smoked Beef Sandwich (103). $15. Very high quality roast beef, but with no au juis and weak horseradish sauce, the sandwich is disappointingly bland. Skip it, this coming from a big fan of Murray's Restaurant. Senior Smokes: $10.50 (105, 305) barbacoa beef burrito. Filling, maybe not quite as good as Chipotle, Pancheros and Qdoba, but certainly not far off. There are veggie options too, if you want. A far, far better deal than the nachos as this burrito will fill you up. Tony O's Cubano: $13 (114). Gotta be honest here, a lot of people rant about this one, but it really didn't impress me compared to other options around the stadium. It's not that it's bad, it's just not that it was great. Unexpected Options: Hot Indian (120): Chicken tikka (pronounced tick-a, not teek-a) masala. It's legitimately good and very mild + gluten free. They have some spicy sauce condiment which kicks 'er up a notch or two if you like. The cabbage veggie blend on the top is okay. Rice was a little undercooked, but all in all, I liked it. Note: I expect the chana masala will also be very good and it's vegan + gluten free. Haven't had Indian food before? Think a rich, thick, very savory and complex creamy tomato soup with tender chunks of chicken poured over rice and garnished with thin chopped cabbage here. Side/Appetizer: Cheese curds: $8 (109, 305). The portion is pretty good, but $8 still feels a little pricey. The curds are small sized, coated and deep fried mozzarella. They have good flavor, if not a bit salty. They're not truly as good as the ones you'll get at the State Fair as the batter used at Target Field is kinda meh, but they're still great if cheese is what you're craving. Vegetarian? Herbivorous Butcher Vegan Bratwurst (129). It's okay. You're not going to mistake it for the real deal and the aftertaste is decidedly veggie wheat thin flavor, but for the vegan/vegetarian folks, it's not bad. Hot Indian (120): Chana masala... okay, I haven't had this dish yet, but when Indian is good, it's universally good and the tikka masala was solid here. What about dessert?: Tiny Tim's Mini Donuts: (135) $6 for a bag. Excellent mini-donuts take my vote for the best sweet/dessert at the game. Cooked fresh, sprinkled hot with sugar, they're everything you hope for in mini donuts. Be aware, get them before the 7th inning, I've seen them run out more than once. I'd choose them over the expensive, and mediocre, soft serve ice cream in the helmet or the waffle cone any day. A lot of high quality options are tucked away at Hrbek's or inside the Town Ball Tavern, but a couple have been moved exclusively into the Truly On Deck (formerly Metropolitan Club). I didn't list these even though some are certified good. Good options if you want to sit, you don't want to do the walk of shame and you have SRO tickets, though!

Side note... I'll take the opportunity to apologize for my entire section and the stupid kids starting the "throw it back" chants. I seriously hate that. Give the ball to a Cleveland fan or somebody else if you don't want it... and never throw stuff onto the field, ever.

Honestly, I think it's always a concern when huge contracts are handed out that the player "got paid" and the fire and drive which pushed them to be the best drops off a bit. I have to wonder if Berrios lost some hunger.

I still can't believe they didn't kick you out of the stadium when you took the opportunity to run over and start urinating in the visitor's dugout... dude, show of home town pride has to have a limit.

Home runs to straight away center field at Target Field are rare. Gordon hasn't shown a lot of pop, but the bat speed and raw power is greater than he gets credit for. Still doesn't take enough walks, but after today's game, he'll be sitting at a wRC+ around 95ish. Going to Thielbar was strange considering he just pitched last night.

While I'm now quite cautious on Lewis' ability to ever stay healthy, anything which improves his chances of consistently showing his abilities on the field is great. I wish him nothing but luck!

Duffey's been plagued with home run allowance throughout his career, often well above the MLB average, but never to this extent. Duffey's xFIP is 3.37. The K% and BB% are both solid enough and the BABIP against is the highest he's seen since 2017. It does seem like Duffey's lost a little velocity, over the past couple years though. Right now, Duffey is repeatably throwing his fastball like a meatball, right in the heart of the mid/upper strike zone and hitters have been rightfully punishing this mistake. He needs to be spreading the fastball out a bit on the inside/outside more so hitters can't predict it or crush it as easily. When it comes to the Rogers trade... it has never made sense to me. From the trade itself until now. Why build a team like you want to compete and then gut it at an important position of need at the same time? I've seen the front office treat relief pitchers as disposable/replaceable assets in the past and it's never worked. Not once. With a team like the Twins who don't value starters going deep into games, relief pitching is even more critical.

I was at the game, and in the left field bleachers, and even I thought that was going to be an out. When Larnach didn't come trotting out of the corner I thought.... "really???"

Deduno had no control at all over his pitches. It was literally dangerous to the health and safety of players to have him on the mound. Averaged 1 hit batter per 9innings or so pretty much his whole career despite opponents being constantly ready for "in your ear" For every HBP, there were about 5 dust ups... Gardy said Deduno was a guy that put a little fear into opponents. Yeah... fear their career would be ended, fear they'd take a trip to a hospital. Not a good kinda baseball game fear.

So my small sample sizes are no good, but your even smaller sample sizes are? Got it.

Even better, the Twins could move Byron Buxton to the 60 day IL permanently so TwinsDaily fans can go back to speculating how Buxton would be OPS'ing 5.000 if only he were healthy! Every time Buxton has a cold week, it's because his knee isn't right yet and the calls for the IL come out. Then, inevitably, Buxton goes on a huge tear like when he hit 6 HRs in 6 games after the last calls for his trip to the IL and suddenly, all is right with the world. It appears a cold week has happened again so Buxton's <insert injury here> isn't 100% and you can tell so he should just go to the 10-day IL and get it fixed.

I included round 3 so you concern seems to be round 4+? I don't wonder that at all. 30 teams scout virtually every top player (physical attributes and performance) as they come up through middle/high school. Even if a scout believed they saw a huge potential, that talent would have to be refined or all the rest of the teams would be seeing the performance and everybody would know about the player. In addition, the idea a single scout from a single team would see the talent (like the movie Trouble with the Curve) is unlikely. There would be a handful of the "some teams" better scouts who'd be expected to see it, too. Passing on early round drafts with the hopes nobody else noticed the elite player hiding in the rough is way risky. Plus, drafting the player early would allow the team to go way over-slot further down the line. That's a technique the Falvey led Twins have employed.

Personally, I think you're too optimistic on Jeffers. First, 13pts below average on wRC+ is very significant Second, using "mean" vs. "median" is misleading because there are backups and AAA injury replacement guys skewing numbers at the bottom. Jeffers might be only 13pts below average, but he's 21pts below median (for 31 catchers with 130+ plate appearances) in wRC+. Jeffers is 70pts below median in OPS. That's ballpark-ish 2 WAR over a 150 games played. Third, Jeffers struggles at the plate date back through last year, where he had a wRC+ of 82 in a fairly significant 293 PA (right in line with what he's rocking today). In total, Jeffers has a wRC+ of 85 across 520 career plate appearances in 3 years. Jeffers has been consistently poor at the plate and that's not a small sample size anymore. It's not absolutely definitive by any means, but it's fair reason to temper expectations. Fourth, there are many players who never perform up to their metrics for various reasons. From players who only use 1/2 the field, to players impossibly weak against certain pitches or players who maybe just psyche themselves out in high stress situations. It goes that way for hitters and pitchers. Fifth, Jeffers is an adequate defensive catcher. He's middle of the road so while he has positional value, his defense shouldn't keep him starting if his bat doesn't play. He's on pace for about 1.5 fWAR this year as the primary catcher. That's not getting it done... and he didn't get it done last year, either.

I agree completely with this take. The trade of Petty could wind up being a monumental mistake and I absolutely hated it when we traded him for Gray since I didn't think there was really anybody in the Twins' system with the potential upside of Petty. Speaking of Petty... his last 5 games are pretty impressive. 2.45 ERA (2.44 FIP), 9.82 K/9 (28.2%), 2.45 BB/9 (7%), 0.93 WHIP. He's not giving up hits, he's not walking too many, he's striking out quite a few. In his first year of professional experience out of high school, that's about all you can ask for.