bean5302

Joe Ryan is a young guy and still trying to work out how his stuff plays against MLB batters who are also making adjustments. It's a game of chess right now, but Ryan's striking guys out well enough and showing solid enough control to stick. He is a fly ball pitcher so learning how to keep those balls in the park is going to be critical to his development. Ryan does not have the stuff to be a front line starter. His fastball is really deceptive, but his offspeed and breaking pitches haven't been effective this year. He's going to need to learn what works to set those bendy pitches up if he's going to reach his ceiling of a mid rotation arm. I feel confident saying he's at least got a spot in the rotation, though.

There can also be some decisions based on what teams have roster space. Rookie Ball is unlimited, but the full season leagues are limited to 28-30 players and those MiLB teams are usually essentially at the limits. With the trade deadline in play and a lot of prospects being moved around, the Twins might keep people in Rookie Ball until they figure out where to move everybody around. Not so long ago, there were extended trade deadlines which might have impacted roster decisions longer into the season.

Yes. It matters. Blue Jays at Rogers Center or Mariners at Target Field. If that doesn't matter to you, then I guess you don't care if the Twins win. It's also not based on 1 game. It's based on the Twins slowly giving up ground, then being passed based on overall play since the end of May.

Ryan is pitching just like he was, he's just not getting lucky. He's experiencing regression to the mean. Joe Ryan is not and has never been the kind of pitcher you'd rely upon to lead a rotation. Joe Ryan - April/June vs. July/Aug 3.20 ERA & 4.65 xFIP vs. 5.33 ERA & 4.61 xFIP He's literally the same pitcher.

For the love of all that is good, Jimmy Nelson needs to give his number to "W.D. Smith" so he can use the nickname WD40.

I'm not actually sure what the intent of this article is? Does it matter how the Twins get into the postseason? Yes. A huge, huge yes. As a Wildcard team, they'll have no bye week and they won't have home field advantage. As a division winner, lets be honest, they won't get a bye week because the Astros and Yankees are 14 games up from the Twins and it's inconceivable the Twins could close that gap, but the Twins would play the WORST Wildcard team. By the way, that's the Mariners right now with the Orioles 1/2 game back. Or the Twins could play the best Wildcard team. As of today? Blue Jays. Who would you rather play? Blue Jays on the road or Mariners/Orioles at home? Yeah. That's what I thought. Side note, as of today, the Twins wouldn't make the playoffs at all. Kind of reminds me of a Minnesota Swarm game I attended many years ago. The crowd was going to get free "Chips and Guac" from Chipotle if the Swarm won... but as the game went on and the Swarm fell further and further behind it was if the Swarm tied. Then it was if the Swarm lost by less than 3. Kind of a moving target thing. I think it's good to remain optimistic, even if I don't come across that way when I post. By the way... ancient history spoiler alert? The Swarm whooped their opponent with an epic comeback to the cheers of "Chips and Guac!!!!" from the fans every time a goal was scored.

Running down the list: 1. Gray 2. Mahle 3. Ryan 4. Maeda Those are our (4) MLB caliber starters out of the 5 we need. I don't think we have too much pitching. In bold, the potential opening day rotation and candidates. Stretch Out Candidate: *Duran - Yep. That Duran. He wants to start and I could see the Twins stretching him into the role to see how it pans out because he's worth far, far more if he's effective in the rotation. Injury Replacement Depth Caliber: *Dobnak - Spot starter, swingman, long reliever talent. *Smeltzer - Same as Dobnak Still injured: *Paddack - It wouldn't be reasonable to "expect" Paddack back before mid-season. He had TJ on 5/11/22. A 12 month timetable is extremely aggressive with 15 months more reasonable and 18 months a possibility. So maybe after All Star break is a better expectation. Bullpen Destined *Ober - Long and storied history of injuries and ailments from high school on. *Winder - Can't pitch more than a couple dozen innings before his shoulder flares up. *Sands - Without a lot of velocity (throws 90-92) and not a ton of control, Sands has been barreled up well so far this year. Probably better out of the pen, but not a guy I'd want to stick in the rotation. Question Marks/Prospects *Canterino - Best case scenario. I think he's likely going to need TJ sooner than later. UCL strain two years in a row. *Woods-Richardson - He might be able to slot into the rotation and be good, but he's missed an awful lot of time and he's been pretty sporadic in terms of results. *Varland - I think the Twins are going to want to watch him for a bit at AAA. His stuff was effective "enough" at AA, but I think he's at his limits. Just have to see if he can push past those limits with a little more work. Low Prospects Living on the Edge of the 40 Man: *Enlow - He'll need to show improved results to remain a starter candidate, and he IS looking better, but I don't think he's going to get into the MLB rotation next year. He'll need to be stretched out in the minors and he'll be under an innings limit so by the time he's ready for MLB action, he'll be close to that limit. *Balazovic - Consistently annihilated within 3 innings every outing in AAA. He's a non-prospect at this point.

I could definitely see him taking a deal for Korea or Japan where Sano might earn $1-2MM per year if he doesn't receive an MLB offer. Top salaries in Korea are about $2MM and Japan about $4MM. Sano will almost certainly have to take an MLB deal at league minimum or close to it, if he even gets an MLB contract, which I doubt he will. There's just no reason to risk an MLB contract for a player who has 1 year in the past 5 where he was well worth a roster spot.

Top 3 weaknesses in regard to what? Making the playoffs? Advancing in the playoffs? I think the Twins have a pretty good shot at the playoffs right now. The roster is pretty solidly constructed. It's not a great team, but it's a good one without a lot of weaknesses, to be honest. Just "good" across the board. There is a big problem looming, though, and that's continuing depth due to a lot of injuries. Kepler's playing with a broken toe... When Kirilloff gets added, the Twins will have 11 players on the 60 day IL and some of those names would have been pretty dang important. 1 to 5 scale, 5 being excellent, 4 great, 3 good, 2 adequate, 1 poor. SP1 - Gray (4) SP2 - Mahle (3) - I am not nearly as bullish on Mahle as many SP3 - Ryan (2) SP4 - Bundy (2) SP5 - Archer (1) Sum = 2.4 avg. BP1 - Lopez (5) BP2 - Duran (4) BP3 - Fulmer (4) BP4 - Thielbar (3) BP5 - Jax (3) BP6 - Megill (3) BP7 - Pagan (1) BP8 - Sands (1) Sum = 3.0 avg. C - Sanchez (2) 1B - Arraez (4) 2B - Polanco (4) 3B - Urshela (2) SS - Correa (4) LF - Cave (2) CF - Buxton (5) RF - Kepler (3) DH - Miranda (3) Sum = 3.33 avg. UO - Gordon (3) UO - Celestino (1) UI - Beckham (2) C2 - Leon (1) Sum = 1.75 avg. The depth at St. Paul is actually pretty solid, surprisingly. Catcher being the lone black hole. If the Twins need an outfielder, easy to call on Contreras. Infielder? Palacios. Rotation? Smeltzer and Sanchez. Relief pitcher? Henriquez. Nothing I'd want to count on as an every day player replacement, really, but honestly nobody I believe would be worse than a scrub level guy, either. Once you get past the surface, though, it's a chasm of question marks, duct tape and super glue. As far as playoffs... there's nobody in the rotation I have faith in as a #1-2 guy leading the way right now. Gray's been pretty rough lately (4.91 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.66 xFIP, 7.67 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 over his last 6 starts) and I want to see Mahle pitch a few games for the Twins before I anoint him an Ace as some of the community have. I think the Twins are solid everywhere else. Unfortunately, when it comes to the playoffs, the teams aren't just solid, they're great. Compared to other playoff teams, I think the Twins are a little weaker.

Not sure why people mention "athleticism" with Wallner. He's been scouted as being a butcher in the field, but with a great arm. Maybe Wallner is improving in the field, too, but that's hard to judge without watching him and having better and more reliable metrics at the MLB level.

It doesn't ignore the graduates and it doesn't ignore the trades. I talked about them. Guess you didn't read that far...

An abundance of shortstop prospects is never a problem, lol. Noah Miller is holding his own with a wRC+ 96 and he's 2 years younger than Lee. Lee would probably be expected to move up faster than Miller, but every prospect needs to prove their mettle.

The good 'ol eye/memory test, eh? He's at 38.6% hard hit and 9.6% barrel rate over the time span Statcast-wise. Average EV isn't great at 87.6mph, but he's also smoked a few balls with a 100mph blast off the bat in more than 1/2 the games he's played. Correa's not been elite over his past 28 games, but he's been a lot better than a .190 BABIP. He's been unlucky. Over a relatively short time span, it happens, and I expect he'll rebound yet again before having another slump, before having another hot streak, and so on and so on. It doesn't matter because Correa is definitely opting out at the end of the year unless he's seriously injured.

It's not about where Medina is ranked for us, it's about where Medina would be ranked on a good farm system today. Fangraphs does not devalue for being in the low minors. They have Brooks Lee at #23 overall and he's in Rookie Ball. They've consistently ranked Royce Lewis as a top prospect from when he was in the low minors. It's possible prospects pan out when they aren't expected to pan out, the same way a player who was once written off can have a massive rebound. I do mention the Twins farm system rankings I expect are based on the prospects doing exactly the same as they've done so far this year. Anything could change. Balazovic could re-emerge. Austin Martin could come back and go on an absolute tear. Brayan Medina has some potential, but he hasn't been able to fool hitters in Rookie Ball so far with a non-elite strikeout rate and a very poor walk rate. With a 4.48 FIP in Rookie Ball, that's just not going to get it done on a good farm system's top 10. I don't expect he's going to remain on the Twins' top 10, either.

Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there. Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.

So you're saying Kirby Puckett is currently a top prospect?

Might have to do with the .190 BABIP from July 1st to now...

Nick Gordon, forever labeled as utility player. Sitting at 1.3 bWAR in 259 plate appearances. Those aren't utility player numbers, folks. Gordon's pretty much a dead pull hitter, but he's been able to avoid having the shift utterly kill his numbers so far. Not sure how long that's sustainable, but right now, Gordon is producing at an every day player level greater than Max Kepler.

Gordon is top 11% of the league in expected slugging percentage, hard hit and exit velocity. Statcast actually says Gordon has been pretty unlucky this year as well. I keep expecting he's peaked, but watching him play, he's driving balls with authority. If Gordon ever figures out how to take a couple pitches, he could be a very dangerous bat. Crazy.

It's what Sanchez has done his entire career and it's what is expected of starting catchers in MLB. Sanchez is going through a rough period. Hopefully, luck will swing back his way and he'll get the numbers back up. His track record suggests it's just a matter of time.

Defense this series has been terrible, for both teams. The overturned call was ridiculous, but the Twins weren't able to get any runs across the plate until very late in the game, despite the Blue Jays fielding poorly.

From last month. He wants to start if he can. I don't blame him since a top starter makes 3x as much and gets contracts 2x as long as a top reliever... https://www.twincities.com/2022/07/07/twins-usage-of-star-rookie-pitcher-jhoan-duran-shows-eye-toward-bigger-picture/

Basically... Read the article, the comments... then comment. Pretty much everything you're commenting about has been addressed in one fashion or another.

No. There' is a 0% chance Correa opts in unless he is catastrophically injured. Correa's options were always to protect Correa at a significant risk to the Twins. It's a BAD thing if Correa exercises his options.

Even more depressing is Balazovic is pitching 2-3 innings a game at this point. He can't make it deeper before he's pulled so this is about the best you could expect if he was converted to a reliever. The most troubling aspect is he's making Tyler Duffey look like a miser when it comes to giving up the long ball. Getting hit this hard, this consistently, generally means the stuff doesn't work. Balazovic just isn't fooling anybody and a near 40% HR/FB rate is like home run derby numbers. It's a very, very dire outlook for Balazovic remaining on the 40 man roster. I can't imagine an injury could drag on this long without being noticed in pitch velocity, etc.