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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Right now, the rotation is: Joe Ryan Sonny Gray Dylan Bundy Chris Archer Devin Smeltzer Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer have all pitched very well recently. Every bit as good or better than I'd expect from Ober. It'll be very interesting to see how the Twins handle Ober's return. Gray, Archer, and Bundy cannot be optioned. I can't see Joe Ryan losing his rotation spot. That leaves Smeltzer to AAA? How much better than the other rotation options is Ober? Probably not much. Alcala could potentially be good, but he's the quintessential "should be good" but isn't. He's just a middle reliever at this point. Maeda probably won't pitch more than a handful of innings for the Twins this year. The question will be all about his control. Pitchers returning from TJ often have significant problems hitting their spots and Maeda won't have any time to really get the repetition he needs. The real value of Maeda is if he returns and manages to have control. He could make the biggest impact on a playoff roster.
  2. bean5302
    I cannot disagree with this more strongly. Experience is experience and Woods-Richardson has been in the world of professional baseball experience and development for 5 years now. If players haven't figured out their pitches, control and consistency in 5 years at the highest levels of coaching, there's only so much more you can expect. Also, when you look at the real prospects, they're always young for their level. Royce Lewis is technically younger than Martin and less than a year and a half older than Woods-Richardson for example. TwinsDaily and other Twins sites routinely use the "young for their level" to explain away poor performances at the high minors. That works when players are in their teens or they have minimal professional experience. It doesn't work anymore once players have years of pro development and are in their 20s at the high minors. Being the average age for a player in a league is not good because most true prospects move through the minors quickly. There are tons of non-prospects who are roster filler type guys at the AA and AAA levels, and those players raise the average age. A good example is the St. Paul Saints. The mean average age for the Saints batters is 27 this year so does that mean Ernie Yake is young for his level and can still develop into a stud? The age at which players essentially become non-prospects has long been 25, even though that would be "young" for AAA.
  3. bean5302
    Neither Woods-Richardson or Martin look like sure bets to make it to MLB, let alone play well at the MLB level. Woods-Richardson really came out flying this year, but his performance faded quickly. In fact, none of his past 7 starts have been impressive in my book. May/June = 5.74 ERA, 4.40 FIP. His K rate has been good and BB rate has been "okay" but hitters are teeing off on him which is what has led to a 1.47 WHIP across that span. While there is the potential BABIP is at work here, he's been consistently giving up more hits than I'd like to see. The Twins are obviously working with Woods-Richardson on his mechanics and pitches so there's reason to be hopeful. Woods-Richardson is not that young for AA considering he was drafted out of high school and this is his 5th year in the minor league system. Martin has been moved off shortstop because he can't handle the position and is producing below average in his league on his second go at AA mostly because he has only 11 extra base hits in 278 plate appearances (ISO .066) which compares to Ben Revere. At age 23, Martin is no longer young for a "prospect" at AA. Again, it's not like it's time to close the book on Martin, but what Martin has done in the Twins' system could hardly be considered impressive.
  4. bean5302
    I'm not looking for Steer's max velocity in a vacuum. I'm primarily looking to compare Steer to his peers. The timing I chose was the instant at which it felt (because I cannot physically see it) the ball left his hand to the instant at which the ball hit the glove (which I also cannot see) in real time. The same way you'd time a sprinter with a stopwatch or an umpire would make a safe/out call. I repeated the process until I had 3 nearly identical times, which was usually just 3 times.
  5. bean5302
    How did he recognize the velocity needed while being unable to see the runner on what was obviously going to be a close play no matter how strong the arm? Must be some wicked good precognition skills. I didn't see his magic grade in the scouting reports. Must be 80 grade.
  6. bean5302
    Dude, same throw, same distance, same leverage, one throw took significantly longer. Scouting reports also say Steer doesn't have the arm for SS and question him at 3B. My math was hosed because I wasn't using the hypotenuse like I should have been using (as if 2nd base didn't even exist...), but it was hosed in essentially the same way for everybody. I am NOT using frame rates because that wouldn't be a good idea as they may not be reliable due to file compression which Mr. Expert you linked to isn't accounting for. In addition, we're not talking about an approximate 55 foot throw here, it's over double that so the margin for error decreases. I timed the throws 3 times each until I got 3 nearly identical times.
  7. bean5302
    My bad, you're absolutely right. I thought those throwing speeds looked stupid low, lol. Since the bases are actually square rather than a diamond, the hypotenuse is going to be a^2 + b^2 = c^2 or 8100 + 8100 = c^(1/2) = 127ft, give or take because of the base width. Steer throwing 125 ft / 1.18 / 1.47 = 72mph Machado throwing 135 ft / 0.98 / 1.47 = 94mph Machado throwing 145 ft / 1.27 = 78mph Arenado throwing from knees 135 ft / 1.58 / 1.47 = 58mph Steer 72mph vs. Machado 94mph on essentially the same throw. MLB SS's should be in the mid/upper 80s.
  8. bean5302
    Astros 47-27 .635 (103 win pace) in a mediocre division. Yankees 56-20 .737 (119 win pace) in a very tough division. Starting Rotation Rank WAR / ERA / FIP Yankees #1 = 8.3 / #2 = 3.02 / #2 = 3.43 Astros #5 = 7.1 / #3 = 3.16 / #9 = 3.76 Relievers Rank WAR / ERA / FIP Yankees #3 = 3.6 / #1t = 2.78 / #3 = 3.25 Astros #8 = 2.4 / #1t = 2.78 / #5 = 3.38 Batting Rank WAR / OPS / wRC+ / RBI Yankees #1 = 15.4 / #2 = .757 / #1 = 117 / #1 = 358 Astros #3 = 14.1 / #7 = .738 / #3 = 114 / #15 = 310 Fielding Rank UZR/150 / DEF Yankees #8 = 2.5 / #6 = 11.0 Astros #2 = 6.3 / #1 = 23.0 The Yankees have arguably the best rotation in baseball, the best bullpen in baseball, the best lineup in baseball, and are well above average defensively. Aaron Judge is having an excellent season, but he's not the reason the Yankees look to be by far the best team in MLB this year. I'm no fan of the Yankees, but they're absolutely mowing through everybody and it's easy to see why.
  9. bean5302
    I expect the Marlins will be dealing at the deadline, they have a huge glut of pitching and they're desperate for MLB ready outfielder talent because they want to compete now. While I'd be shocked if they dealt Alcantara, Lopez would be a valid target. Lopez's drop in velocity is a little red flag, but the results are still there. Larnach, Kepler and Celestino would all likely turn some heads down in Florida.
  10. bean5302
    Steers arm looks pretty dang good to me there, but I timed it at 1.18-1.21 sec. Assuming the throw was 90 feet (a little inside 3rd, but a little back), that's only 50mph average. In the video below at 0:09 Machado makes a similar plant/throw, but probably more like 100 feet and I timed it at 0.98-1.01 sec. That's 70mph average. Machado makes another play at 0:25 from maybe 110 feet at 1.27-1.30sec, right about 59mph average. Essentially, Steer's arm is no where close to as good as the top arms at 3B. See 1:01 where Arenado makes a 100 foot throw in 1.58sec from his knees, just a tick slower than Steer's planted throw.
  11. bean5302
    Have to check back near the end of the season, unless the Twins trade Correa and the Twins are 3 games up on Cleveland and 6 games up on Chicago with only 2 weeks until the All Star break so it seems like a trade is getting pretty unlikely. Lewis' recovery will be considered in the equation, undoubtedly. If the Twins feel like Palacios/Steer/Gordon could technically cover the SS position for a couple months without hurting the club too much. Every free agent signing is a white flag for a team. A failure to develop players internally leading to an overpay in the free agency market.
  12. bean5302
    Sorry you hate Nishioka so much the mere mention of him dooms a player to futility. In any case, Kirilloff refuses to take walks at the MLB level, and had poor walk rates at almost every other stop in the minors. I think that's a valid concern because Kirilloff has a big hole in his game already as he will never provide significant defensive value. If Kirilloff won't take walks, he's not going to get good pitches to hit and he's not going to feast off mistakes at the MLB level. I think everybody should see where this is going. No matter how glowing the scouting reports and writeups here at TD may be, it doesn't mean he's impervious to criticism.
  13. bean5302
    Steer is scouted with average speed and an unimpressive arm, neither of which bodes well for him covering shortstop. Still, Steer has played a handful of games at short this year, but the underlying numbers are pretty awful. Tough to say how the Twins view his potential to cover the position, even in a pinch.
  14. bean5302
    Communication style is critical when you're trying to get people on board with your ideas or changes to the way they do things. It important to make people feel like there's a better way rather than making people feel like they were doing it the wrong way. Johnson clearly has a great rapport with the players and a leadership style that gets players to buy in. It's a great asset, but it's not a unique one. The system Johnson put into place should let the results be continued.
  15. bean5302
    Trivino is probably a major hard luck candidate, but as previously mentioned, he's allowing a 40% line drive rate and both his changeup and four seam fastball have been driven hard with exit velocities north of 92mph on each. Trivino's BB/9 and K/9 rates are being elevated by the BABIP issue. Simply put, Trivino is seeing more batters per inning than he probably should. The K% and BB% are good, but sometimes the hits are just a factor of the pitches not working rather than hard luck. Tough to say here.
  16. bean5302
    Honestly, I just don't like Kirilloff's stance/swing process. It's really open with his right foot placed further towards 1B than his left foot. In addition, his leg kick seems to result in his right foot landing even further back, sort of like Tsuyoshi Nishioka's left handed swing, using his left hip to rotate his body rather than his core. This feels like it would place a great deal of strain on his hip, knee and ankle and seems like it wastes bat speed to me. In any case, I'm not bullish on Kirilloff right now. When Nick Gordon draws more walks than you and I see what seems like way too many strike three swings where you end the swing on your knees, it's not a good omen. I'm not sure if Kirilloff is pressing (seems like he is), but his walk rate has been pretty poor at other stops prior to AAA this year.
  17. bean5302
    I think it's awfully tough to predict how veteran contracts are going to be impacted by the new CBA. A lot of money just got funneled to the younger guys and it will impact the veteran contracts. There's only "x" amount of money owners are going to spend. Aside from that, I utterly fail to see how this happens... Jose Berrios 7yrs $131 MM Marcus Stroman 3yrs $71 MM They were extremely similar comps. Ironically, they're both struggling this year. I'll hazard a guess on Sonny Gray. An extension voiding the option = 3yrs $65 MM. I certainly wouldn't want to offer it to him. Gray's velocity continues to slide and he's seeing what seems to be a trend of allowing more fly balls. Extending Gray feels very, very much like Phil Hughes right now to me.
  18. bean5302
    I've had the Red Cow sliders 3 or 4 times now. The first time I had them, there was no mustard (early in the season) and subsequent times I've had them, there's been mustard, but the beer mustard wasn't acidic enough (or in a great enough quantity?) to cut through all that richness. I'd definitely go with the cone over the helmet. Seems like the helmet dishes (nachos/soft serve) aren't a great deal to me... but maybe that's because the helmet cost cuts in to the dish, haha. I was going to sample the LaTapia adobo tacos the other day, but alas, they're still having problems with TwinsPay. Sorry, but with every other stand having figured it out, the problems are now on the vendors.
  19. bean5302
    Bummer you had a bad experience with it. I've had it a few times and as far as I can remember, it's always been good.
  20. bean5302
    The job was undoubtedly a take it or leave it situation. Johnson took what is speculated as an enormous pay increase for a role involving an undoubtedly superior work/life balance. There is no possible way to fairly criticize Johnson for what is a decision that totally makes sense for him.
  21. bean5302
    Pitchers are voted in by players, managers and coaches. My guess is nobody on the Twins pitching staff makes it. Duran is probably the closest candidate, but with 1/2 the WAR of other relievers and a ranking around 20 for WAR/ERA/FIP, I don't see it happening.
  22. bean5302
    In a word? No.
  23. bean5302
    Even if you believe the Twins are not built to compete or that they couldn't compete, there would have to be a team in the AL Central who was clearly built to lead the way, and there isn't right now. The 1987 Twins team was mediocre and they won the World Series. It's a long shot, but until the Twins look to be well out of the division lead, Correa is not going to be traded. This is probably the 10th "Trade Correa" topic I've seen in the past couple weeks. Aside from that, the Cardinals have an excellent value shortstop right now... Tommy Edman has 3.4 fWAR. Nolan Gorman, a 22yr old rookie is delivering big time at 2B as well. The Cardinals have no real need for Correa. The Giants might be a legitimate destination, with Brandon Crawford struggling at the plate and moved to the 10 day IL, but Crawford has another year left at $16MM on his contract. I could potentially see a Correa for Crawford and Kyle Harrison trade or something like that. It's unlikely Correa (at $35MM and a rental) brings back great talent on his own.
  24. bean5302
    Since Buxton didn't hit for the cycle, you can clearly see he's struggling and his knee is bothering him. He needs a trip to the 10 day IL!
  25. bean5302
    It was a little surprising the Twins had Wallner at Rookie ball level, especially for so long in 2019 after being drafted out of college. The loss of 2020 likely really slowed him down, especially with the broken hamate bone last year shutting him down for a couple months.
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