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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Please stop searching the internet to find some random generic calculator website for your baseball calculations, and then referencing that website to spread blatant misinformation. Per an actual baseball site (fangraphs.com), developer and host of the fWAR stat MLB owners actually wanted to use as a basis for arbitration value in negotiation with the MLBPA. https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/rate-stats/ As you can see per an actual baseball website, Matt Wallner's K rate is 31.5% last year. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-wallner/26466/stats?position=OF
  2. bean5302
    Yeah.... except at bats doesn't include walks. Or hit by pitches. Or sacrifices. There's a handy-dandy website called fangraphs which gives you the number where you don't have to calculate it (wrong) yourself.
  3. bean5302
    What's he going to coach? How to secure multi-year deals when there are better, cheaper options on the free agent market?
  4. bean5302
    I mean, he's only a 2.5hr flight and 4 MiLB levels away from St. Paul. Pretty close, really.
  5. bean5302
    Demote Wallner to AA = spot opened. DFA Margot, promote Keirsey = spot opened.
  6. bean5302
    Wallner was on pace for about a 4 WAR season last year. That's as good as Kepler has ever been and an All Star-ish level of production. Wallner did not have a 37.5% strike out rate. It was 31.5%, which is 2% better than, say, defensive stud Michael A. Taylor. I don't disagree with sending Wallner down to A ball. I advocated for that 45 days ago so he can build some confidence. He's clearly pressing too hard based on a recent interview recap Seth Stohs featured.
  7. bean5302
    Literally 13 days ago Julien was carrying a wRC+ 125. Guy goes on a 10 game slump (still better than league average) and there are calls for his demotion the day after he goes 2-2 with a walk. Jeez. Also, Brooks Lee!!!! OMG, Brooks Lee!!!! is at the Florida Complex league (rookie ball), not AAA.
  8. bean5302
    No top 20 prospects. Baseballtradevalues has gone pretty much totally paid only so I can only guess Vazquez's value. I'll be generous and estimate Vazquez's FV at $5MM with his salary for this and next year at $15MM. So right now, we'll say Vazquez is worth -$10MM. A prospect in that category is probably around #5-10ish in the system. Falvey can make the bed he's been laying in. Trading away prospects to try and save a few bucks smacks of the old Phil Hughes deal to San Diego. The Twins parted with a Comp B pick in that move.
  9. bean5302
    The point is the Rays are the premier pitching development team in MLB. The model every team wishes they could follow successfully, a team whose made the playoffs 5 consecutive years, and made the World Series in 2020 despite playing in arguably the toughest division in baseball year in and year out. The Rays get beaten in trades sometimes, and the Joe Ryan trade was one of those times. Joe Ryan was a steal for Nelson Cruz, but considering the Rays churn out a Joe Ryan like every year, it's probably not absolutely eating them up. Now, for the Twins, who draft and develop 1 Joe Ryan every 10 years, it'd be a much bigger loss.
  10. bean5302
    I watched the last couple of seasons. Ryan comes out, pitches well early, Twins fans lose their minds and declare Ryan an elite playoff starter in the making, then the league adjusts to Ryan's changes. That's what I've seen. First 50% starts vs. Second 50% ERA 2022 - 2.99 vs. 4.14 2023 - 2.98 vs. 6.62
  11. bean5302
    I'm not sure if you're tipping your cap because Falvey hasn't been successful in developing virtually any reliable talent at the MLB level or if you're being serious that it's a good thing the farm system is still hanging in there middle of the pack style? LOL.
  12. bean5302
    The Wallner hate really needs to stop! lol. Seriously, though. In his short 2023, Wallner was as good as Kepler has ever been in his entire career, but Wallner's struggling at the plate right now (like Kepler has done much of his career). Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or a different cheap player will need to fill Kepler's shoes next year. Austin Martin is a 4th outfielder like I suspect Keirsey is. Seriously, though. Saying the Twins shouldn't extend a qualifying offer to Kepler is just good sense, and I don't think anybody "hates" Kepler, just that Kepler is an expensive 2-3 WAR luxury for the Twins, and there are better options given the Twins' payroll limitations. Correa $37MM, Lopez $22MM, Buxton $15MM, Vazquez $10MM, Paddack $7.5MM, Dobnak $3MM. That's $90MM which is guaranteed to be tied up. 2025 status: Ryan Jeffers Arb2 $6MM, Willi Castro Arb 3 $8MM, Bailey Ober Arb 1 $3MM, Joe Ryan Arb 1 $4MM, Griffen Jax Arb 1 $3MM, Jhoan Duran Arb 1 $4MM, Trevor Larnach Arb 1 $3MM that's $31MM more. Plus 15 other players at or close to their salary this year probably another $15MM or so. That's $136MM assuming the Twins cut ties with Thielbar, Farmer, and Kepler. That's the situation the Twins are in right now.
  13. bean5302
    So Teoscar Hernandez's bat is dramatically superior to Kepler's, and so is his durability. Beyond that, Hernandez is a lot more reliable production-wise, but his down year obviously scared some suitors off. Hernandez vs. Kepler average of WAR, wRC+, plate appearances 2021 = 3.9 vs. 2.2, 132 vs. 97, 595 vs. 490 2022 = 2.9 vs. 1.9, 130 vs. 95, 535 vs. 446 2023 = 2.0 vs. 2.9, 105 vs. 124, 678 vs. 493 2024 = 1.6 vs. 1.4, 137 vs. 144, 228 vs. 131 Now, there were predictions Hernandez was going to get as high as 4yrs $80MM because he was better than Kepler by a mile in almost every way, but he ultimately settled for $23.5MM with $8.5MM deferred over 10 years so Hernandez only makes $15.5MM this year. Hernandez was not extended a QO, and that probably would have have reduced his value considerably. Kepler will have to compete directly with Hernandez this year, and a much more robust free agent market for position players this season.
  14. bean5302
    Don't forget about Carlos Santana! I have it on good authority he's a total stud. There was a forum thread gloating about Santana's value and taunting the idiots who didn't think Santana was going to rake this year! Thread was from a couple weeks ago. Oddly silent recently... LOL
  15. bean5302
    I agree. The Twins' situation on trading Kepler could be tenuous and depend on Matt Wallner getting out of his head and relaxing a little, and Trevor Larnach continuing to prove the production this year isn't a fluke.
  16. bean5302
    Festa is probably the most likely to get called up next. There are injuries in the rotation fairly frequently over the year. I don't think Varland has much more leash as a starter in AAA at this point. He's getting shelled down there.
  17. bean5302
    Drafted out of high school 2020 (obviously didn't pitch much) Shoulder strain kept him off the field all 2021 Shoulder tightness showed back up in 2022 which shut him down for early/mid August After that point, the Twins severely limited his innings/pitch count. 2023, started with a 3 inning limit, never pitched more than 54 pitches in a game. 2024, started with a 3 inning limit again, recently pitched 60 pitches. Basically, the Twins are concerned his shoulder won't handle a full workload so they're bringing him along slowly.
  18. bean5302
    Huge Royce Lewis fan here. Easily, EASILY my favorite player on the Twins. The rehab process is going like this: Play in games -> base running -> rest/check in with how his quad is feeling -> fielding. Fielding will put the greatest load on Lewis' quad because of the start, stop, change direction, leap, off balance movement. This is what the trainers and coaches are saving for last, and Lewis will only be cleared to start fielding in games when he demonstrates his quad feels good after hitting well and running the bases hard without any tenderness or tightness the next day or the day after. If you've hit the gym you know day 1, if things are sore then day 2, things will be way more sore. I expect Lewis could join the Twins on their next road trip sometime, but I'd be awfully surprised to see him before that.
  19. bean5302
    I don't think you should let it go. Somebody at the top of the Twins needs to be terminated over this. Maybe the plug gets pulled on Joe Pohlad or maybe it's time for St. Peter to turn in his corner office. The cluster#*@& fans have been handed by the front office and ownership this year has really damaged the organization's reputation. I'm very skeptical I'll have seasons again next year.
  20. bean5302
    I'm not really sure what to make of SWR, and I think it's hard to for probably even the front office to know what to make of him considering the drastic change he's made to his velocity this year. It's clear he's got a very short leash with Rocco, and that might have to do with SWR struggling to repeat his mechanics for 6 years now. There's probably plenty left in the tank to be tinkered with after literally adding 5mph to his fastball this spring, but I just hope his arm doesn't fall off.
  21. bean5302
    I don't see Kepler getting a QO because he'd almost certainly take it. He's going to be operating on 1-2 year contracts going forward due to his oft injured nature, and declining speed and defense and age. Kepler's xwOBA this year is similar to 2022's campaign, but his actual production is on par with last year's so there's reason to expect some regression, but let's assume he keeps up production close to his current level and ends the season at 3.5 WAR. What kind of contract do people think a 32 year old, 3ish WAR caliber right fielder will get? 2-3yrs for $32-40MM is I'd say his limit. $21MM for a single year is almost a no brainer for Max to accept, IMHO. It's also a price the Twins cannot come close to affording.
  22. bean5302
    You're missing the point. In any case, I expect Ryan will turn right back into a pumpkin like he always does. Makes some adjustments, scouting reports lag behind, hitters adapt, Ryan gets destroyed. Rinse, repeat. It is impressive Ryan is able to keep finding magic tricks that work for a couple months, though. I've got zero faith in Ryan ever being more than a back end guy.
  23. bean5302
    Margot is not as good as what teams can find for the league minimum salary or on the waiver wire. I don't think people understand how terrible Margot has been. Nobody pays money for that. If Margot is going to be moved, it'll be through DFA/release. I don't know as Falvey will do it since he hung on to Gallo last year for months and months or terrible results. Margot is the weakest player on the roster, and he's incapable of fulfilling the only role the Twins really needed him to handle.
  24. bean5302
    Julien's line, literally only 13 days ago .228/.342/.433 OPS .781 wRC+ 125. He's had a bad 10 game streak. I'm not a huge advocate or believer in Julien, but a bad 10 games isn't going to get me on board the demotion train. Brooks Lee, OMG!!!!!! Brooks Lee!!!!!! has no business near the Twins' roster until at least after the ASG.
  25. bean5302
    Maybe, but they're probably not as stressed as you might imagine since they churn out more than 1 good pitcher per decade. It's a novel concept in Minnesota.
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