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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'm not sure what to make of the signing and reasons behind it. It's clear there was huge pressure on the Twins to make this happen, but I don't think it happens if the trade market for him was hot with teams willing to offer the Twins elite prospects. Those MVP bonuses could be huge, but Buxton has never finished above 16th in MVP voting in his career. Still, $15MM/yr for a 3 fWAR player isn't going to kill the team. There's always the outside chance Buxton becomes healthy and the contact becomes a real steal.
  2. bean5302
    Maybe, but it didn't help better players than Hunter like Fred McGriff.
  3. bean5302
    Hunter's not even close in my book. He had a very long career, but was steady "good" rather than great. 5x All Star in 19 seasons just doesn't get it done. Hunter's very best season is the average season for the 7 year peak of an average hall of famer. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml Hall of Fame Statistics Gray Ink Batting - 29 (1020), Average HOFer ≈ 144 Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 58 (371), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 34 (249), Average HOFer ≈ 50 JAWS Center Field (36th): 50.6 career WAR | 30.8 7yr-peak WAR | 40.7 JAWS | 3.5 WAR/162 Average HOF CF (out of 19): 71.9 career WAR | 44.8 7yr-peak WAR | 58.3 JAWS | 5.4 WAR/162
  4. bean5302
    Right. Now is the player in a position to make a play because of the play or because of the strategy? Range Factor and SDI don't isolate the player performance so it's hard to judge how well a player performs. Polanco is arguably the worst shortstop to play more than a single full season there in the past 20 years. Making Polanco "good" would have required a miracle. Shifting's impact on grounders and soft fly balls is well documented. It's not speculation. RF and SDI don't attempt to count for the shift.
  5. bean5302
    The player doesn't deserve the credit when the team is telling them where to stand so the ball travels directly to them. The shift artificially increases the number of opportunities fielders have to catch balls because it doesn't give you a clear indication on how good the player is. The shift can impact Range Factor dramatically. The top shifting team last year would have been expected to see a reduction in batting average on ground balls and soft liners by approximately 6% overall. That's a 6% increase in opportunity for an infielder to make a play. Between the top and bottom shifting teams, the difference would have been 4%. How much of a difference does that make? It could easily drop RF/9 by .15 points as a shortstop turning a very good SS into a pedestrian one. If the Twins were to think Simmons was good because of his Range Factor or SDI, but it was actually due to the Twins' shifting and positional strategy, it would cause the Twins to misjudge Simmons' value. In that case, the Twins could plug a supposedly inferior shortstop from a team which employed a less successful position or shift strategy into the Twins' system and the new player would also perform just as well as Simmons. It's about properly valuing players.
  6. bean5302
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2021.shtml Looking at the 2021 voting, I wouldn't be surprised if Clemens (61.6%, 3rd most valuable pitcher of all time), Bonds (61.8%, 2nd most valuable hitter of all time) and Schilling (71.1%) were all elected in their 10th and final year. If voters have been holding out for the last time on the ballot for some of those names, it could wind up costing weaker candidates like Nathan.
  7. bean5302
    I would really love Baseball Reference or another major data site to create a "PED re-profile" tool which would re-curve performance based on expected exit velocity changes. It would be totally unfair because you don't know who was using, but I think it would be helpful all around. If 10% of OPS improvement was PEDs, if you re-curve the players who've been tainted, maybe it would help the fringe guys get more recognition and separate the HoF regardless of PED use guys from the guys who might not have made it. Sheffield, Ramirez, Sosa probably don't have the numbers to get in with that adjustment.
  8. bean5302
    Sure. The popular opinion on this board is Buxton is an MVP level talent. A guy who could put together an 8-10 WAR season if he was healthy. He's played 140 games twice (2016 split between MLB/AAA and 2017). 70% of Byron Buxton, based on popular opinon here is 5.6-7.0 WAR or so over a full season. So like, Mookie Betts or Bryce Harper. Those guys are a little spendy and the Twins are not going to do it. I think you could probably move Marcus Semien to center field. It sounds like he's going to get over $200MM any day now. The Twins hear $100MM or more and they panic.
  9. bean5302
    Listen, if you're unwilling to accept Jake Cave is a potential Hall of Famer, late bloomer... ?
  10. bean5302
    Bonds is the figurehead for the steroid era. The proof that steroids create legendary career performance (even if it doesn't actually do anything remotely close to that). It's not fair Bonds has been so ostracized, but his extreme success actually works against him. Bonds was so good that people hated his success; they were jealous, and his surly public persona made it even worse. People actively wanted Bonds to fail. That's my opinion.
  11. bean5302
    There are some key differences. Canseco named Sosa and Canseco's got some credibility. Sosa was also named in an affidavit by Jeffrey Novitzky, an IRS agent who led the BALCO investigation, though it seems it was only specific to amphetamines. Sosa also played virtually his entire career in the steroid era. There's a lot more than a maybe/maybe not positive test for Sosa. That said, the outrage over steroid and PED use in 2009 was far greater than today. Do keep in mind, BALCO was literally 20 years ago.
  12. bean5302
    I really like Joe Nathan, but the gap between Nathan and Rivera is cavernous. A quick glance down the bWAR lists: Dennis Eckersly (HoF) = 62.2 Mariano Rivera (HoF) = 56.3 Rich Gossage (HoF) = 41.6 Lee Smith (HoF) = 29.3 Trevor Hoffman (HoF) = 28.1 Billy Wagner = 27.8 (2019. 16.7%, 31.7%, 46.4%) Joe Nathan = 26.7 (2022) Francisco Rodriguez = 24.1 (2023) John Franco = 23.6 Jonathan Papelbon = 23.3 (2022) Craig Kimbrel = 21.9 (still active) Rick Aguilera = 20.7 Jeff Reardon = 19.0 Troy Percival = 17.0 I think Nathan has an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. He wasn't good in the post season, blowing a couple games with an 8.10 ERA in just 10 appearances with 10.0 innings pitched. I don't think that's going to be working well for him. He was definitely right there with Mariano Rivera as #1A and #1B from 2004-2009 and I think Nathan gets in if he didn't go down with TJ in 2010. Now, he's really pushing the limits. There are a lot of closers who are around him in saves and WAR who fell off the list fast.
  13. bean5302
    Patrick Arnold (creator of "The Clear THG) "...Yes, people back then did test positive because of supplements, and occasionally it was for nandrolone, which I think (Ortiz) is alluding to, but not verbatim," Arnold told the Daily News yesterday. "If he could say it was nandrolone, I'd say, 'OK, you may have a case.'... https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/balco-chemist-david-ortiz-supplement-tale-feasible-article-1.395677 Ortiz does not appear in the Mitchell Report. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_named_in_the_Mitchell_Report Anonomous drug testing in 2003 contained inconclusives, not just positives. "Ortiz claims he did not know his result came back positive. As one of the 13 or more inconclusive results, that makes sense because Ortiz’ name does not appear in The Mitchell Report. As Schmidt wrote yesterday, “All players who tested positive in 2003 were told that their tests had been seized by the government, according to the report presented to Major League Baseball by George J. Mitchell ….” The report never cites Sosa, Ramirez, or Ortiz “ maybe because they didn’t test positive. At any rate, that’s as plausible as Schmidt’s vague sources." https://cantstopthebleeding.com/no-smearing-in-the-press-box-iii-big-papi-vindicates-cstb-blowhard-michael-s-schmidt-commences-damage-control Just because you don't like facts or something doesn't align with your opinion does not make it satire.
  14. bean5302
    Ortiz hasn't talked about it much at all. He said he believes he may have tested postitive due to an over the counter supplement. The chemist who created the THG (The Clear) is on record saying it's feasible an over the counter supplement could have triggered a positive. In addition, the Mitchell Report also may have contained names of players who may have tested inconclusive. Ortiz didn't show any changes to his body type or decline in production with the implementation of testing. So you don't know for sure he tested positive or what substance it may have been that caused the inconclusive or positive result. Aside from that, Ortiz played his entire meaningful career in Boston and never tested positive there. You have a very strong opinion despite having almost no information to back it up.
  15. bean5302
    The Twins were between a rock and a hard place with Enlow. Protecting him and potentially losing a different player in rule 5 as a result. If Enlow winds up busting, and a different rule 5 pick leaves and does well, the Twins will face criticism again. It's the front office's job to protect players they've evaluated as having the talent and drive necessary to make an impact at the MLB level. Time will tell if they do a better job than they have at talent recognition.
  16. bean5302
    This topic has been previously covered. I don't think it's nearly as polarizing as you do. The case for Ortiz and steroids is one of the weakest out there and only the most hard core anti-steroid writers will consider it IMHO. Nothing from Canseco's book. No positive tests from 2003-2016. No known BALCO scandal ties. No known Biogenesis scandal ties. Ortiz played 85% of his career and his entire Red Sox career after testing and penalties were implemented. Ortiz will be in the Hall of Fame. He won't be a first ballot guy, I don't think because his overall WAR numbers aren't good enough for that, but he was one of the most prolific hitters in baseball after the year 2000. Ortiz has compiled more than 50 fWAR and 55 bWAR in his career. For a full time career DH (Ortiz completed only 166 of 2,408 games in his career at 1B)? That's a very rare bird.
  17. bean5302
    I don't have anything personal against Niko Goodrum, but I'd rather play Palacios. I find it hard to believe Palacios hasn't warranted at least being looked at as a utility infielder. Goodrum is a known quantity, he's a 30 year old (by the start of 2022) utility infielder who can't hit. He's not exactly a black hole on a roster, but he doesn't add anything, either. Over his last 504 plate appearances and 2 years, he's generated 0.3 fWAR and 0.1 bWAR with a .632 OPS.
  18. bean5302
    The Twins haven't exactly treated highly regarded Asian league players well in my opinion. So why would a player from an Asian league look at the Twins as a potential landing spot? The Twins were quick to bench and demote Park with an injured wrist and never really gave him a good look after. Gardy was publicly critical of Nishioka right off the bat, and it can certainly be said Nishioka didn't play well, either he nor Park even got 300 plate appearances in MLB.
  19. bean5302
    It wasn't an arbitration contract, but the Twins have made similar moves under Falvey like eating $2.5MM on Anibal Sanchez in 2018 before cutting him on March 11, less than a month after he signed. If the Twins are willing to eat $2.5MM, they'll also be willing to eat $200k if they cut Cave before the season. I don't think it's even a bad look for the Twins as I'd be surprised Cave would be able to get an MLB contract from anybody right now. I think it's basically just free money for him right now.
  20. bean5302
    Considering how the Twins treated Nishioka and Park, it'd be a cold day in hell before I'd come out of Korea or Japan to sign with the Twins.
  21. bean5302
    No. As a rookie Buxton produced 0.1 fWAR. Then 1.5, then 3.6, then -0.3, then 2.7, then 1.2 before this past season... where again, until the last 10 games of the year, he was like 2.5 fWAR.
  22. bean5302
    Management fees vary, as you say. I based it on 5% of the rental value at $800/mo per apartment, which worked out to about 10% of the payment which seemed nice and easy. Given the size, I'd actually expect it might be a bit more than that. Regardless, when we're at $60,000, arguing over a few hundred or even a couple thousand isn't going to turn the tide. Typically, utilities are not included in units and MLB didn't say utilities had to be covered, but even if I were to add utilities (water, sewer, gas, electric, garbage), it would still be $45,000 cheaper. Maintenance, groundskeeping and common area cleaning is required and that can definitely cost some money so now maybe $38,000 cheaper assuming the players had to pay nothing at all. Not sure that's the case. Even though players don't have to be on the lease, are they going to have costs deducted? It didn't really say, I don't think. Not sure how the apartment complex would operate during the offseason, whether it would be filled with short term leases or what. I didn't take into consideration the potential value of having $77,000 of revenue during the offseason. The whole thing is moot since MLB teams cannot use hotels/motels except when apartments, rental houses and host families are not feasible.
  23. bean5302
    Oswaldo Arcia is only 30. That's crazy to think. I really felt like getting DFA'd by the Twins was going to light a fire under him. He had a huge year on a MiLB contract with the Diamondbacks, but he was jogjammed behind other talent and didn't get a shot at the MLB roster that year. Then it was off to Japan where he performed poorly for a single season. For a guy who seemingly had so much talent to fall so far and so hard.
  24. bean5302
    Well, I suppose the things which matter to us are a lot different. Different objectives lead to different conclusions, haha.
  25. bean5302
    "Suck for Luck" was real. Teams weren't even putting their best players on the field.
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