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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Bundy is a dumpster dive. The proof is in the contract.
  2. bean5302
    Prestige.
  3. bean5302
    This is false, but common, logic. It's like arguing everybody should be executed at age 41 because Kobe Bryant died at age 41. If Kobe didn't live past 41, nobody should!!!!
  4. bean5302
    The owners proposed reducing the luxury tax to $180MM and creating a $100MM floor back in September and are still pushing for it. No team in baseball has ever hit a $300MM payroll. The Dodgers in 2015 hit $273MM. Next highest is again, the Dodgers in 2017 at $242MM. In most years, the top team is around $220MM. Side note... you believe the NFL is more competitive than MLB? Number of teams in the World Series since 2010 = 14 of 30 (47%) Number of teams in the Super Bowl since 2010 = 15 of 32 (47%) World Series since 2000 = 21 of 30 (70%) Super Bowl since 2000 = 21 of 32 (66%) Number of teams in MLB playoffs since 2010 = 28 of 30 (93%) Number of teams in NFL playoffs since 2010 = 26 of 32 (81%) Despite having 2 more teams in the league and 4 more playoff teams every year, fewer NFL teams have made the playoffs in since 2010 and the same percentage of their teams have made it to the championship game.
  5. bean5302
    The small market teams are making a fortune gaming the revenue sharing system. It's not that any team in baseball can't afford a competitive payroll, it's just more profitable for some teams to intentionally keep payroll and revenue low while collecting revenue sharing.
  6. bean5302
    I have no idea how things will play out or how quickly the players might break or how quickly MLB owners might break because there are so many complexities. That said, if MLB were to actually able to move forward with MiLB replacement players, I think the MLBPA would be broken in short order just like the NFL owners broke the NFLPA fast and easy with replacement players. Fans come to the games to see their team, not the specific players on the team and I've seen/heard no credible evidence to the contrary. Once fans start attending games, the MLBPA loses an absolutely dramatic amount of leverage.
  7. bean5302
    Nobody was okay with the losses from the strike and the strike was not successful. It was a disaster for players and owners alike. Year Min Salary Ann. Increase Avg Salary Ann. Increase 1967 6000 19000 1970 12000 26% 29303 16% 1975 16000 6% 44676 9% 1980 30000 13% 143676 26% 1985 60000 15% 371157 21% 1990 100000 11% 597537 10% 1995 109000 2% 1110766 13% 2000 200000 13% 1895630 11% 2005 316000 10% 2476589 5% 2010 400000 5% 3014572 4% 2015 507500 5% 3952252 6%
  8. bean5302
    Manfred's letter sucks because it's obviously trying to tilt public opinion... but that doesn't help owners or players. All it does is stoke the fire of anger in fans. An angry fan base blaming the players or owners is irrelevant because when fans are angry, they quit following the sport. They stop going to the games. They stop spending their money. It doesn't matter who the fans are protesting when the revenue stream dries up.
  9. bean5302
    Sure. It's possible the Twins could be Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic on opening day. 3 question marks and two back end rotation options.
  10. bean5302
    Okay, how come the Twins didn't sign Stroman at 4/$95MM? Stroman was signed for a STEAL. It shows the Twins had every opportunity, should they have taken it, to sign a very good pitcher for multiple years at or above what the market paid. Arguing maybe the Twins didn't have time to come back with 3yrs and 70,000,000.01 is ridiculous. Even had the Twins spend far more than that, Stroman would still have been a bargain.
  11. bean5302
    The Twins couldn't get Stroman at 3 years and $71MM? Seriously... like, I can't wrap my head around this one. Stroman and Rodriguez both look like steals.
  12. bean5302
    Lets hope the Twins are able to find some lost velocity or some lost skill.
  13. bean5302
    He pitched in 4 games last season. His velocity was over 95mph and his swinging strike rate was above his career average. He had control and was throwing first pitch strikes. Give the Yankees a smidge of credit; their front office isn't manned by complete morons. Having more than 1 top rotation starter is allowed in MLB.
  14. bean5302
    A fun exercise. I'm not sure how accurate it is and I struggle to believe a .779 OPS would get anybody an MVP award in reality. Also, while you say $191.9MM is close to double Buxton's contract, that's not true. If Buxton wins an MVP with 574+ plate appearances, he'd have made $15 + $8 + $1.5 = $24.5MM. Since I'm not sure if he was garnering MVP votes in 2022-2024 or how many plate appearances he was having, it could make a big difference on his contract's value. Assuming the same number of plate appearances as 2025, and assuming his similar WAR resulted in say, #5 in MVP voting in those years, his contract would have been. 2022 - $15.5MM ($9 + $1 + $4 + $1.5) 2023 - $21.5MM ($15MM + 5MM + $1.5MM) 2024 - $21.5MM ($15MM + 5MM + $1.5MM) 2025 - $24.5MM ($15MM + 8MM + $1.5MM) 2026 - $15.0MM 2027 - $15.0MM 2028 - $15.0MM Total = $143MM vs. value = $191.9MM I think most people, including myself, would be happy with Buxton performing at the level shown in the video game.
  15. bean5302
    Celestino will be 23 at the start of the season and he hit well at AAA across 211 plate appearances. Backing up Buxton could be viewed as sitting on the bench and playing every once in a while or I view it as when Buxton gets hurt and goes down for an extended time, that's when Celestino takes his place. I don't know as any amount of raking at AAA guarantees success at MLB because AAA pitchers don't necessarily expose the same weaknesses as MLB pitchers will. I think the question of whether or not Celestino is ready for MLB will be settled at the MLB level. He's proven he was able to adapt to AAA pitching and that's all we learned.
  16. bean5302
    8.35 ERAs and 13.7 hits per 9 at age 28 are pretty compelling reasons to question his ability to provide value at the MLB level. There's also 2019 and 2021 results in AAA with ERAs of 4.47 and 5.14 while allowing a ton of hits there as well. He hasn't been impressive at any time in the high minors.
  17. bean5302
    Meh. Doesn't matter. I'm not sure why this is some sort of shrewd move regarding Cave. I have nothing against Cave personally, I just don't see the interest in having him in the system at all at $300k or $800k. Unless there's a dramatic change in his production, he's not even a good option as a utility outfielder. A 28 year old relief pitcher project is one of those, "sure, why not" signings.
  18. bean5302
    Severino is a legit #1. He's an Ace and that's how NY views him. His shoulder/lat issues in 2019 were a concern and his long return from TJ have been rough. That said, he's proven his dominance in back to back years at the MLB level.
  19. bean5302
    Some definition for folks who may not know what tender means. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/contract-tendered Contract Tendered Definition To "tender" a contract to a player is to agree to give a contract for the upcoming season to a player who is under club control. Players on the 40-man roster with fewer than six years of Major League service time must be tendered contracts or they will be considered "non-tendered" and immediately made eligible for free agency. Contracts must be tendered to both arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players, though the latter group has no say in its forthcoming salary. Tendering a contract to an arbitration-eligible player does not mean that the two sides set a specific salary, but rather that they agree to come to terms on a salary between the date of the tender and late February. If the two sides cannot come to terms on a salary or multi-year deal, an arbitration hearing will be held and a panel of arbitrators will determine his salary. The offseason deadline for clubs to tender contracts to eligible players typically falls in early December. Example Having accrued more than five but fewer than six years of service time, Brandon Moss was eligible for one more round of arbitration following the 2015 season. The Cardinals tendered a contract to Moss and ultimately agreed to a one-year, $8.25 million deal with him to avoid arbitration.
  20. bean5302
    I think the actual question is does he stick on the ballot for more than one voting cycle. The answer is still no. Morneau is an outstanding guy by all accounts and there are few, if any, Twins who I've rooted for harder, but at 27 career WAR as a position player, he won't stick on the ballot.
  21. bean5302
    I think Celestino makes the best "backup" for Buxton. Gordon is probably best as a utility player rather than the kind of player you want to rely upon as a starter trying to fill the hole Buxton will likely leave in the lineup for 80-100 games next year. Celestino will be in his age 23 season and he proved he could hit at AAA. I don't believe a player can learn to make the adjustments they need to make for MLB pitching while playing in the minors. Either Celestino will be able to hold his own and make the adjustments he needs to make at the MLB level or he won't. Kepler's sprint speed has dropped off a bit and he posted his worst mark last year at 27.4 ft/sec, down from the peak 28.2 ft/sec in 2016. The median CF with 100+ opportunities sprint speed in 2021 was 28.4 ft/sec. So Kepler was a tick below average at his peak a few years ago, but now, he'd rank as 24th of 28 in that list. Kepler's UZR/150 has plumetted in CF over the past few years as well, though it's a pretty SSS. Sprint speed and their rank in the aforementioned list. Buxton 30.0 ft/sec (1st/28) Celestino 28.3 ft/sec (17th/28) Gordon 27.9 ft/sec (20th/28) Cave 27.9 ft/sec (20th/28) Kepler 27.4 ft/sec (24th/28) Rooker 27.3 ft/sec (25th/28) Larnach 26.5 ft/sec (28th/28)
  22. bean5302
    I don't think Buxton's contract is likely boom or bust exactly. I don't expect he'll ever be healthy, but he'll probably produce enough to make him valuable. The contract's incentive design will allow it to be moved as well so it shouldn't cripple the Twins.
  23. bean5302
    Let's keep the Paul Molitor "dust" he was using early in his career away from all our players.
  24. bean5302
    After Gausman went off the table for 5 years $110MM and Eduardo Rodriguez at 5 years $77MM without the Twins checking in on either, I'm crazy skeptical the Twins giving more than lip service here. Robbie Ray said "They called and offered 4 years and $60MM every day for 5 days in a row so my agent angrily told the Twins to stop getting new Google Voice numbers every time we block the previous one."
  25. bean5302
    If Buxton was worth high dollars on the open market, teams would have been offering the Twins something good to trade and Buxton would have been shipped. Nobody really wanted Buxton that bad outside the Twins.
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