bean5302

I was pretty sure of the outcome before I wrote the article because I'd done some research before Darvish slipped through our hands years ago, but I was surprised just how bad some of the "good" signings we made really were. Also, the article is more for TD folks than me: I was writing while procrastinating on a engine project in the garage, haha. The big issue is being pretty sure you're right without having the research to back it up for other folks to review.

I don't think that's a fair assessment of the entire system. There are a lot of pitchers coming who just aren't going to be ready for opening day 2022. Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Enlow, Varland and Petty, for instance. If you look back just a few years, the Twins struggled to put anybody from the system into the rotation, even at the back end. Things are better, but we'll probably know a lot more about the health of the farm at the end of next year than we do right now.

I was looking at starters who were likely to command $100MM+. So this year, Scherzer and Greinke probably wouldn't make the list. 2015 Greinke was seen as an overpay and the Diamondbacks signing him kind of stunned everybody, but I don't recall anybody forecasting doom and gloom. Adding $4MM/year to Darvish would be way more than needed for anybody to sign him, but even if that were to happen, Darvish would still be the pitcher he is right now (ace level) and the cost per win would go from $9.9 per WAR (B-Grade) to $12.0MM per WAR (C-Grade). Keep in mind, that also includes Darvish's wasted 2018 due to misdiagnosed injury. Ultimately, Darvish is probably the most stellar example of how ace pitchers are still a good value because this already paints him in a bad light. If you evaulate Darvish based on median WAR, he cost $3.4MM / WAR which is ludicrously great. Adding $4MM per year to his salary and dividing by his median WAR is still only $4.1MM / WAR. He'd still be ludicrously great. I'm not sure why the Twins would have to be at the luxury tax threshold? They already spent $40MM in 2018 on free agent/acquisition arms. Darvish cost $25MM. Even if the Twins decided to overpay $4MM per year for no good reason, in 2018 Darvish still would have cost $11MM less than what the Twins were already spending. Also consider the Twins were expecting to spend $41MM on FA/acquisition arms in 2020. Darvish and Wheeler combined only cost $44MM. Now, which would you rather have in 2020? I'd take column 1 all day, every day... even if I don't like losing Maeda. They cost essentially the same money. Darvish vs. Odorizzi Wheeler vs. Maeda Berrios vs. Berrios Jax vs. Pineda Dobnak vs. Dobnak Ober vs. Hill/Bailey

It's the front office's job to sell the best solution to the owner(s), even if the solution is a long term, big dollar contract. I feel like what I laid out above in a few hours of diving through the internet is exactly the kind of argument a GM could take to an owner like Jim Pohlad to justify spending bigger on top pitching, but it would take confidence because if it doesn't work, you'll probably be fired.

I kinda wonder if you know what an anchor is?

Polanco has one of the worst error rates for a starter in baseball .974 at 2B. Arraez is average with a .992 at 2B this year and .991 last year. Arraez hasn't been nearly as sound at 3B, though.

It was rescinded after discussion, but he was called for a balk

I'm not sure how many people watched the game, but honestly, it was the balk by Albers which really tore the game open. Runners at 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs, Cruz at the plate and Albers balks a run in. Then Baldelli calls for the intentional walk to Cruz and Albers hangs a curveball which Diaz puts in the seats. The balk call was... pretty BS, but Albers needed to be on his game after being called for the balk in the first. If the balk isn't called and Albers gets Cruz, he's out of the 2nd with no runs. Condensed Game. https://www.mlb.com/gameday/twins-vs-rays/2021/09/04/632600#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=632600

For once, it's not my inability to read stats on Baseball Reference that betrayed me here. It was my complete disinterest in even looking them up, haha.

Rogers, Sano, Donaldson - They wanted to but injuries or performance prevented it. Kepler, Buxton - They were actively fielding offers. Buxton very likely would have been traded if healthy. The only reason I say this is there absolutely will be some players moving around this offseason. I'd be totally shocked if Arraez, Donaldson, Sano and Polanco were all on the team next year. Since I believe the universal DH is virtually assured, I expect some increased interest in Sano which could allow Donaldson to slide to DH if the Twins can't find an interested partner. There are just too many moving pieces right now. When it comes to the original intent of the article, though, I cannot disagree more that one year contracts aren't bad. The Twins, over the past decade, have spent what it would cost for 2 premium starters on mediocre to bad short term contract arms almost every single year. In effect, the Twins are spending long term Ace starter money, just on a cumulative total of disposable, short term arms which they wind up regretting putting on the roster to begin with.

Unless Albers was pitching hurt, it's his job to stop the bleeding and he was pulled after only 3.0 innings. That's a very short start. It's clear Albers didn't have his head in the game, but as a 37 year old pitcher signed to a MiLB contract, that's one thing you can't skip over.

The Twins' 2022 rotation has been a hot topic all year and has managed to reach molten lava temps lately with Kenta Maeda confirmed out with a hybrid UCL reconstruction surgery having just been performed. An absolute best case scenario is Maeda returning in June of 2022, but even with no setbacks, normal healing times could extend his absence to September. Just one little setback along the way is likely to end Maeda's 2022 before it even gets started. Maeda was absolutely key to the 2022 rotation. He was expected to be the anchor in the middle of the rotation where pieces could be added around him to build a World Series contender if the Twins so chose or the lone potential top of the order starter in a sea of young arms if the Twins chose to retool. While his struggles in 2021 tempered expectations of his legitimate Ace potential, the loss of Berrios cemented the need for the Twins to find a true number 1 starter to compete. Do the Twins even have a potential mid-rotation anchor anymore? Exploring the options will undoubtly lead to the exciting prospects in the Twins rotation today named Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. These aren't (waves hand) the mid/upper rotation arms you're looking for. Ryan has 4 pitches, technically, but his curve and changeup are both borderline for the MLB level. One of both of those pitches are likely to be cut from his repertoire and in order to even stay in the rotation, Ryan will need one of them to stick and improve. Ober also has 4 pitches, but he has exactly zero plus offerings. Ober's fastball was not MLB caliber coming into the season, but some diligent work on his part and the pitching coaches has found a couple mph Ober desperately needed to elevate it. A fastball which now actually plays at the MLB level along with some other average offerings does not a mid rotation pitcher make. I'm not trying to take anything away from Ryan or Ober and what they've accomplished this season. I think both of these guys can and will spend time in rotation long term. That's a huge accomplishment if both of them make it. Then there are the Griffin Jax's and Randy Dobnak's. Dobnak is the better of the two, but honestly counting on either one of these guys to give you 20+ starts a year feels like a recipe for disappointment. They've both enjoyed some success at the MLB level, but the scouting reports are going to get better and better on them. What about Jordan Balazovic? As exciting and dominating as some of his starts have been across AA this year, he's been inconsistent with his control and he only has 2 offspeed/breaking ball options. Unless the pitcher has multiple plus-plus offerings (Berrios does, Balazovic doesn't) the absolute ceiling for a 3 pitch pitcher is filling a #3 spot. Expecting Balazovic to waltz into the rotation to start the season and be the best pitcher he can be from day 1 is completely unreasonable. Wes Johnson talked about Balazovic recently in a quick interview. He made it clear Balazovic's ceiling was looking clearer and league average, maybe a bit better is how he's seen. Again, that is a huge accomplishment, not a knock against him. Dominating minor leagues, but without hiccups, is how most top of the rotation starters advance to MLB in 1 to 3 years. Jhoan Duran? Can't throw strikes, hasn't gotten results at AAA, hasn't pitched more than a handful of innings and is out with a UCL strain. If you're holding out hope for Duran making the opening day rotation as an anchor piece, that's grasping at straws. There is one pitcher, though, who could fill a role of mid-rotation starter out of the gate... maybe with a little more upside than that. A pitcher who has taken big steps forward in scouting reports and utterly dominated at a higher level of the minors who I don't hear in the 2022 rotation discussions. In a lot of ways, this prospect is similar to a former Twins prospect from the mid 2010s who's made a nice career for himself. Our current prospect has exploded up the ranking charts and has been ranked as high as #4 in our system this year by major sites in 2021. Keith Law is on record this year as saying this pitcher is legitimate and could be a true #3. Grading system refresher: 70+ "Plus-plus" - 60 "Plus" - 50 "Average MLB" - 40 "Non-MLB" 2014 Twins Prospect - Fastball 60, Slider 45, Curveball 50, Changeup 55, Control 45 2021 Twins Prospect - Fastball 55, Slider 55, Curveball 50, Changeup 50, Control 55 The 2014 Twins prospect is Trevor May. May had mid rotation upside, but in order to reach it, he needed to improve his control and for his curve and slider to play at the MLB level. Ultimately, May always struggled a bit with his control and was never able to get the curve to fool MLB hitters. May chose to focus on a different grip on the slider and a permanent move to the bullpen where he's carved out a role as a late inning power reliever. The 2021 prospect is Josh Winder and those scouting marks do not fully take into account his improvement in velocity yet. Think of Winder as a potential better version of Trevor May with better control and all 4 pitches likely to play at the MLB level. Winder has added 3-5mph to what was a 50 grade fastball from 2019, but the preliminary reports are his slider and curveball have also sped up and the curve, particularly, is getting better bite and action. In addition, the changeup is reported to have stayed about the same velocity making it play up because of the increased differential in speed. Even more than that, Winder hasn't walked more than 2 batters in any appearance this year and in many cases, 0. His control may be better than graded as well... Winder may well have the stuff to be a true mid-rotation anchor for the Twins. Right now, he's sitting on the 7 day IL because of a "shoulder impingment" which the Twins have called dead arm or shoulder fatigue as well. They were expecting Winder to be out for 2-3 weeks meaning he could yet return for a game or two this year, but even if he doesn't, there's every reason to expect him to be ready for opening day. The best shot the Twins have in their system of an opening day 2022 mid rotation starter on the roster is Josh Winder. Make no mistake, Winder does not have the plus-plus offerings to buckle the knees and make MLB batters look like little leaguers which is required of Ace caliber pitchers. He does not project as a top of the rotation arm and the Twins still absolutely need to fill those two rotation spots at the top of the order if they're seriously looking to compete, but Winder could be the potential anchor for the 2022 rotation.

He's not rusty. It's regression. People believing Buxton was suddenly the best hitter in MLB history weren't being reasonable. He's not as bad as the 2/27 slump, but he was utterly no where near the slash line he brought into August.

Strotman had a 5.09 BB / 9 at AAA for Tampa Bay this year and 5.06 BB / 9 in A+ in 2019. The control issues have been going on for long while now. You're right about him not being MLB caliber if he can't throw strikes. Wes Johnson said he thought Strotman was trying to nibble and said the Twins are trying to get him to attack the zone. He's not attacking the zone.

There are only 26 spots on a roster right now. It doesn't matter if Fangraphs has 100 prospects ready to debut, you need to find a place on the active roster to make those debuts. If the writer is advocating 2022 as an experiment year, what they're really advocating is a high potential for a full rebuild so those limited roster spots can actually be used for prospects. I've seen very few calls to tear it all down and trade Garver, Kepler, Buxton, Donaldson and one of Polanco or Arraez, but that's what's really going to have to happen. Plus cutting bait on a number of young pitchers and again, ditching the bright spots in the bullpen for a do-over next year. Lewis, Martin and Woods-Richardson are the only A grade prospects in the Twins system right now. While the Twins' farm system is very deep, it's filled with what are expected to be mid-level players at best. If you make room on the roster for the prospects and it turns out those prospects don't pan out, you're now looking at a very long rebuild, hampered further by what are going to be new CBA rules that are absolutely going to be approved to prevent all out tanking. People throw around top arms or second tier arms without actually considering their cost. A "Marcus Stroman" is going to get $150MM this year, folks. If the Twins are willing to do 6yrs $150MM on a pitcher, they're also willing to spend and trade to get the other pieces they need to compete now.

I haven't been interested at all in baseball cards since I was a kid. I do find the single licensee platform to be the way the major sports, ultra especially, MLB have operated. It seems to me, this is just more of the same MLB policy. Short term gains without any vision at all costs. There has been a magnificent decline in baseball card brands over the past couple of decades. https://www.bbonly.com/baseball-cards-by-year-and-brand.php 2008 - 49 brands 2009 - 36 brands 2010 - 19 brands 2011 - 16 brands 2012 - 12 brands 2015 - 11 brands 2017 - 17 brands 2018 - 19 brands 2019 - 13 brands 2020 - 9 brands 2021 - 2 brands We've seen the same move in regards to television, etc. It's not without similarities across other sports or product lines, either. With the decline in market competition, gaining sole access to an entire marketplace (monopoly) has been pursued at length. Apple's iPhone was originally exclusive to AT&T and Palm's Pre was exclusive to Sprint, for example. The big names no longer do this as it's proven to be a disaster, but I suppose MLB's ability to offer a double monopoly (product market and product together) is enticing. Kinda like cable companies owning not only the lines that go to your house, but also the content you receive.

Twins = 3.8 fWAR and a near Cy Young starting pitcher in a season they went to the playoffs. Dodgers = 0.5 fWAR middle innings relief pitcher. Definitely equal so far. I'm not even sure why people want to debate this. Even if Graterol somehow becomes a pitcher who can actually strike guys out and hit his spots, he's also going to have to become a pitcher who shows up to Spring Training in good enough shape to be part of the team. On top of that, he's never going to catch up to Maeda's value added if Graterol remains a reliever and given his lack of commitment to conditioning and lack of a 3rd pitch, that's not happening. The Graterol Kool-Aid was strong on Twins fans sites, but ultimately, he's not the next Aroldis Chapman, just the next Jim Hoey. If Graterol has a 5.0 WAR career, I'd be surprised.

Twins won. Not even close.

That is exactly my thought on the Twins' plan. I'd bet money Simmons is back next year (not a lot of money, mind you).

They were just shifting him around the diamond when Martin was aquired for a few days before they moved Martin to CF. But yeah, it was after Speer was promoted to AA and Martin was acquired the crunch got really bad. Instead of promoting Palacios, the Twins elected to start spot starting him and using him as a pinch hitter. Meanwhile, JT Riddle of the OPS in the .500s and 32 year old Drew Maggi are in AAA. If the Twins don't put him on the 40 man, I'd hope they don't if I was Palacios, I certainly wouldn't return to Minnesota on a MiLB contract.

Also, Varland is absolutely killing it this year. The fastball, curveball, slider combination is really playing well at A+ level, though there was a major drop off in his K rate from video game numbers 14.45 K/9 at Low A to a still very solid 9.89 K/9 after today's performance. Luck seems to be a factor in his overall numbers at A+ with his BABIP and HR rate being low. Fangraphs is showing a high 23% pop up rate and a crazy 38% pop up rate at Low A earlier this year, but of course, those numbers are super sketchy, especially considering his A+ line drive rate is only 5%. Still, it could explain the HR/FB rate being so low.

Have to wonder if Palacios is nursing an injury. He hasn't been tearing it up quite as much this month, but he also hasn't been consistently starting at all. My take was either the Twins have seen all they care to see and aren't intending on giving him a 40 man roster spot or they've been giving him extra time off due to some unknown injury.

Honestly, everything will depend on how competitive the Twins expect to be next year. When it was reported Maeda expected TJ, that meant the odds for having him back in 2022 were scant. I'd be surprised if Ober and Ryan weren't in the rotation. Winder could return to the Saints rotation any time if the original 2-3 week reported shutdown proves accurate. I'd think the Twins would be a little extra motivated to see him pitch again this year now that Maeda has gone down.

I believe Royce Lewis was scheduled to meet with team physician, Christopher Camp around this time to get clearance to start hitting and lateral movement. So much on the line for him over the next 9 months or so. Nice to see Martin have a good couple of games. Every player will go through some slumps, luck fueled or otherwise, but the Twins really need him and Woods-Richardson to play well. Speaking of, getting tired of Woods-Richardson sitting on the developmental list. The developmental list is specifically defined as NOT a place to rehab injury, and it's his 3rd week there now. No reason for the Twins to be abusing the crap out of the new option.