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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    In regard to Buxton... let's say the Twins immediately put him into MLB action and Buxton flails away for the first week until he gets up to speed. It drops his performance on the season or he aggravates his knuckle and the Twins have to put him back on the IL. The Twins are pointing at that performance in arbitration. It just doesn't look good to potentially make your players look bad.
  2. bean5302
    We have different opinions on the subject.
  3. bean5302
    Nobody has a clue what this front office is doing at this point and it doesn't look like they have a clue, either. At least it puts everybody in the same boat.
  4. bean5302
    Yeah, having him go back out there for the 5th when he was already at 98 pitches already probably wasn't expected. I suppose he did turn in an 11 pitch inning. Despite not giving up any runs, he still hit one batter wasn't even hitt 89mph on his fastball.
  5. bean5302
    The post was about his ceiling. If you believe Arraez's absolute ceiling is what he's already shown as a spot starting utility infielder at ages 22-24 where he's already, consistently, generating a rate of 4-5 WAR per full season, you're welcome to believe that. 60 WAR gets you into the HoF. You can do the math on how good Arraez has been.
  6. bean5302
    The statements by the Twins and Yankees say it all in the playoffs. Yankees style statement: "We know they're a good team otherwise they wouldn't be in the playoffs, but if we just go out there and play our game, we're confident we're going to win. Honestly, anything short of a World Series victory for us is disappointing." Twins style statement: "You know, we're just enjoying another trip to the playoffs. That's why we play the game. These types of opportunities aren't guaranteed so we're really proud of what we've accomplished. We're going to go out there and try to give 100% and if we do that, we think we have a real good team and a good shot." It's the expectation of winning vs. the hope of winning. Totally different mindsets and I think the "Minnesota Nice" Twins get overwhelmed in the playoffs by a superior attitude and presence.
  7. bean5302
    That's old Yankee Stadium. The new one isn't what I'd call beautiful, but definitely nicer.
  8. bean5302
    Not so sure about the ceiling being so far off from Carew or Gwynn. I don't think Arraez will ever get as many plate appearances as those legends or have as long a career, but Arraez is young and his OPS+ is 10pts away from those guys' careers. Arraez just needs to commit to his conditioning to have a chance at staying healthy. If he does that, I think he's has a shot to be nearly as good as those greats. We're certainly not talking chasms here. Carew, Gwynn, Arraez over their first 3 seasons. Random order, but I can tell you Arraez isn't the lowest... .324/.386/.419 OPS .805 = OPS+ 122 .299/.346/.408 OPS .754 = OPS+ 115 .329/.382/.415 OPS .797 = OPS+ 125 I believe Mauer will get in, no doubts at this point. I was concerned, like everybody else, about his first base time and short career. Almost ever writer I've seen has also considered Mauer a HoF'er, but were all wondering about what other writers were going to do. Well, it seems like the vast majority of people feel the same way. They'd vote for Mauer, but most don't expect him to be first ballot.
  9. bean5302
    There's nothing to suggest to me Arraez will be a poor fielder at 2B. Arraez's 2B RF/9 across the minors (when he was actually playing a steady position) was outstanding. Arraez has a good glove, he just doesn't have great range for the position, but he certainly has the tools to play 2B. As far as Arraez's knees, he's on record as stating it should be manable by him just increasing his lower body strength to take stress off them. I'd imagine weight management fits in there somewhere, too. We'll see.
  10. bean5302
    The catcher tries to move his 250lb body with gear within 1/2 a second to change his stance and position in front of where he's guessing the ball will go. He does not know exactly where the ball will go and cannot physically make any adjustment after the ball hits the dirt. How hard is that to understand? I didn't put words in your mouth. I explained how unreasonable your expectations (and several others on the site) of human anatomy were.
  11. bean5302
    I never get past how many Twins fans believe catchers can slow time down and move like they're Neo in the Matrix around here. Jeffers blocked plenty of pitches spiked in the dirt yesterday. Any and every pitch spiked in the dirt which is blocked is 50% luck and 50% technique. When 100mph balls are spiked in the dirt, it's total luck in regard to the angle the ball bounces and it's at best a guessing game. The ball is traveling at 135-150 feet per second. It has to travel 3 feet to reach the catcher after it spikes off the ground, now traveling with a randomized trajectory. It reaches the catchers body (if it his the body) in 0.2 seconds. Your eye cannot blink faster than 0.1 seconds. The catcher cannot physically make any adaptation to block a pitch once it's hit the dirt and they've already committed to their guess at where the pitch will ricochet. I'm sure folks like to watch the slow motion replay as they play the Matrix theme in the back of their minds while imaging shockwaves behind the ball and the catcher floating off the ground, but here in real life, it doesn't happen.
  12. bean5302
    Lack of a 3rd pitch makes it virtually impossible to be a starter. Still, glad to see he's having success. For a guy drafted that late, it has to be a ton of fun!
  13. bean5302
    Wait.. what? You think a pitcher is more likely to give a batter something to hit with RISP? Aside from that making no practical sense because giving batters good pitches to hit would likely score runs. The absolute, hands down, number one scenario a batter will see nothing to hit is RISP (runner on 2nd, nobody on first with 0-1 outs). If there is a time when a pitcher is looking to induce the weakest contact possible or get a strike out while throwing absolutely nothing in meat of the zone, it's with RISP. I mean... pitchers will even walk in runs with the bases loaded rather than give a good pitch to hit.
  14. bean5302
    I don't think it's necessary to move Palacios to the MLB roster, but find a spot where he can play shortstop. It's obvious Martin is a dramatically better prospect than Palacios so you cater to Martin's development, but you don't take a steaming dump on the head of your other players like Palacios to do it. There's nobody at AAA the Twins want playing SS at the MLB level. I made an error in my comment above, though. JT Riddle was outrighted to AAA so he's not taking up a 40 man spot. That said, it's the end of the season. Do the Twins really need 32 year old utility MiLB roster filler Drew Maggi and 29 year old utility MiLB roster filler JT Riddle playing every day in St. Paul? Like WTF? Logjamming talent in the minors for Maggi and Riddle. That's the real hair puller for me.
  15. bean5302
    I would have moved him to AAA when they moved Steer up. It was a major roster crunch in AA at that point. Release JT Riddle which has the added bonus of clearing a 40 man spot.
  16. bean5302
    I know it doesn't mean a ton, but all the minor league affiliates have winning records and AAA/AA are in contention for their division title. That doesn't happen unless there is real talent in the minor league system. That Quad Cities team for KC (60-29) .674 is scary, though. The AL Central is not going to be an easy place to win for the next 5 years, I don't think. Also, worth noting just because he's kind of my favorite underdog now, Palacios got back on base 2x again. 1 2B, 1 BB to increase his OPS to .834 and hold his wRC+ at 122. Looks like Martin has been moved back to SS, though. Palacios hasn't played SS in 4 games with all the starts going to Austin. They actually put Palacios at 1B. Guy hasn't had an error at SS in 21 games and his FP is like .981 at the position since early June. It's the equivalent of his age 23 season (discounting last year's lost season) and they start him at first base. I have to wonder how this impacts a player like Palacios. He's one of the best shortstops (performance-wise) in all minor league baseball and he's moved to 1B and I think it could be argued he's 3rd on the SS depth chart at AA now. I think I'd either be utterly pissed off and use this as motivation to hope the Twins leave me off the 40 man so I can get away from this franchise or I'd let this sink my confidence.
  17. bean5302
    Best wishes for a super fast recovery!
  18. bean5302
    I think Larnach was just overwhelmed by the difference between breaking balls at MLB and A+/AA. I have pointed out Larnach really didn't have any time above AA... but in truth, Larnach didn't even have 2 months of time at AA. Not even 200 plate appearances above A+ ball when the Twins called his number to start at the MLB level. In regard to Larnach's vaunted power stroke... he has not shown impressive power at any level of the game so far. His ISO at A+/AA was a quite pedestrian .144/.160. While his raw power is there, he is not a fly ball hitter and most of his offensive performance in the minors seems to have come from a very high BABIP on line drives and probably well hit ground balls. Larnach's batted ball profile may well look much more like Joe Mauer's than Justin Morneau's. Unfortunately, Larnach is not showing anywhere near Joe Mauer levels of plate discipline and pitch recognition.
  19. bean5302
    Strotman has always walked a small army of players. It's bound to come back and bite you hard and his xFIP showed great luck for Tampa and poor luck for the Twins. Not sure about Woods-Richardson. He's certainly rested since he didn't pitch in the Olympics, but they have him off site right now on the development list. He's eligible to go back to the Wind Surge tomorrow.
  20. bean5302
    With SF taking the opportunity to extend Crawford (the best short term option on the market for the Twins), I honestly expect the Blue Jays to put forth a big effort for Semien and probably get it done before year end. That leave Baez who has some super scary peripherals when it comes to long term contract he will get. Are the Twins going to outbid the Yankees for Story? The historic projected shortstop free agent market may start drying up before we even get to free agency.
  21. bean5302
    I agree. Gardy, Molitor and Ryan didn't like Vargas and were quick to kick him to the curb. The Twins were packed with 1B/DH's already so Vargas didn't have a clear role on the team.
  22. bean5302
    I was about to argue Martin's floor being equal to Lewis, but even though I'm concerned about Lewis, I honestly still do think Lewis has a higher ceiling. The floor is definitely far higher for Martin, though. Martin will absolutely make MLB and he looks like a near guaranteed starter at least. My viewpoint on the Twins' system is pretty much the same as I've read from analysts. Very deep with a lot of middle value talent, but thin in regard to elite talent. One of the reasons it's so hard to rank the Twins' system is the difficulty in debating a clearly superior talent between numbers 14 and 30, for instance. I'd say the same is the case in 9-14 and 3-8.
  23. bean5302
    If you really want to get fun with SS, Eduardo Escobar is a free agent. Sprint speed is still very good and virtually identical to what it was in 2016. His 5-25 foot speed is nearly identical to Byron Buxton this year (not joking) in statcast. Escobar is not elite in terms of 5 foot speed and quickness, but it's entirely possible he would be an adequate shortstop placed into the position.
  24. bean5302
    Story may not be looking quite as good as the other elites, but if he's truly interested in signing a 1 year contract, he'd take the QO. Story is on pace for about 3.0 WAR this year. Sprint speed, K rate, BB rate, barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity, launch angle, pull, center, opposite rates. They're all normal for him. His HR/FB rate and line drive rate are down a bit with his grounders up a bit, but honestly, it looks a lot like luck this year with his BABIP 40 points below his career average. His max and average home run distance is normal, but his average distance is down a bit, but it's still top 25%. Either Story has been really lucky for 3 years in a row or he's been unlucky this year. I suspect most teams are going to evaluate him as such. With 1.5 months left, there's still some time for Story to pad his stats as well. I don't see a way Story won't get at least 6-8 years and $150MM-200MM+
  25. bean5302
    I should point out, I don't think there's anything to be mad about as Twins fans. The front office has made their call on the subject. They've seen all they need to of Nick Gordon and are seemingly preparing to move on after the season. Here's hoping they make the right call and another team isn't hugely rewarded with a legit starting shortstop for giving Gordon a better opportunity if the Twins do leave him off the 40 man.
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