bean5302

Speaking of Berrios... he's straightening things out in Toronto. Over his last 6 starts, Berrios has been very good. 10.5 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 3.00 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.02 xFIP even with the .319 BABIP.

I think Correa feels like he's interested in the player management and coaching aspects of the game along with the theory and evolution. I'm not sure if he'd actually be more interested in a GM job (like Jeter) than a manager.

Jack Morris wasn't a great post-season pitcher. I'd choose somebody good instead.

I'd take Gray over Mahle for game 1 right now, but it may well be up to whether or not 1. The Twins make the playoffs. 2. Which arm is ready 3. Who is injured

Nice writeup. I'm more bullish on Woods-Richardson and Wallner and a little less so on Miller, but it feels like the Twins system is now a "depth" system where differences between #5 and #15 can be negligible.

I think the Twins got a great deal here. I'm sure the Reds were fielding other offers for Mahle so that points to how well valued Steer, Encarnation-Strand and Hajjar were outside the organization. It does feel like we're working hard to build the Reds into a monster farm system at this point, haha. Honestly, I can't do anything other than grade this an "A" Regardless of whether or not Mahle is the ultra-stud some fans on the site think he will be or just a very solid mid/upper rotation arm, the Twins didn't give up a ton here to get him (conventionally speaking).

This year, the Twins have only drawn an average of 21k per game. That's only 5k per game better than last year when the Twins reported an operating income of $10MM with $44MM of reported gate revenue. If gate revenues remain the same per attendee, and other revenues remain the same, the Twins' operating income will be ($15MM) this year as payroll has risen by $25MM. All that problem goes away with a deep playoff run, though. Have to agree lots depends on how the season plays out.

Jim Pohlad made the decision to hire Derek Falvey 6 years ago after a disappointing 2016 season where expectations were raised based on improvements seen in 2015. The primary decision to choose Falvey was modernizing the player development system with analytics so the Twins' farm system could sustain competitive play long term operating like a smaller market team. The biggest issue the Twins had was their utter failure to develop front line starters. Jose Berrios, despite his stellar numbers in the minors, had been eaten alive by MLB hitters and the farm system was looking a bit rough. Naturally, having graduated Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios in the last two years, that's going to see a farm system take a beating. Falvey went into 2017's playoffs with a virtually identical team as the Twins fielded in 2016, and again in 2019 and 2020. The winning tradition was restored! Except Falvey did it all with a roster largely created from the drafts and signings of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. Falvey had major hits... but most of the hits eventually turned into misses. Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Jason Castro all ended their time with the Twins with a whimper, but this article is really about the sustainability factor. That's why Falvey was hired. Not for free agent signings. For a sustainable, productive draft and development system built from analytics and cutting edge baseball knowledge. I graded Falvey's top 3 rounds of drafting a couple months ago, and the situation has changed quite a bit, but again, I'm interested in the sustainability of the team. What do the Twins have in the system to fill the enormous holes on the roster coming up? Again, the idea was not that Falvey constructs a roster out of free agents when he was hired. What did the system look like when Falvey started? #1 - Nick Gordon* #2 - Tyler Jay #3 - Fernando Romero* #4 - Alex Kirilloff* #5 - Stephen Gonsalves* #6 - Wander Javier #7 - Kohl Stewart* #8 - Adalberto Mejia* #9 - Ben Rortvedt* #10 - Zach Granite* *7 of those players made significant appearances at the MLB level, and in general, they were viewed pretty highly at the time. The Twins' farm system was right in the middle. So what about today? There isn't much there. MLB's top prospects set for the Twins are: #1 Lewis (a23)- Undoubtedly the only elite prospect in the Twins system. He could be a star. He's also younger than Martin or Balazovic... as hard as that is to believe. Lewis torched AAA and proceeded to shine bright in a handful of plate appearances at the MLB level. With a character as brilliant as his athleticism, the sky is the limit... if he can stay on the field and prove his performance wasn't a SSS fluke. #2 Martin (a23) - Has seen his stock take a real beating this year. He went from a consensus top 50 prospect to falling well out of the top 100 on the failure to develop power and a lower batting average coupled with embarrassing defense. There was improvement in Martin's defense at SS with the error rate trending towards almost acceptable, but Martin's suffered an injured elbow diving for a ball at the beginning of July. It wasn't expected to be a big deal, but here we are a month later and he still hasn't played while (stop me if you've heard this one) the Twins hadn't been able to diagnose the issue at least as of mid July... #3 Balazovic (a23) - If Martin's stock had a silver lining, it's Balazovic's stock. It's not possible to understate how disastrous his performance has been this year. He wouldn't even be ranked on a good farm system top 15 at this point. While there is the hope Balazovic's struggles are related to injury, the Twins don't seem to feel like the injury is an issue. They keep sending him out, Balazovic continues to get consistently destroyed. #4 Woods-Richardson (a21) - He had another great start to the season, but he started struggling with control like last year leading to a rocketing WHIP and lots of runs. Then, there was a lengthy IL trip for COVID. Woods-Richardson probably moves to my #2 prospect in the Twins system at this point with overall impressive strike out rates, a great 4 pitch combo and stretches where he dominates. There's still a lot of potential. #5 Matt Canterino - (a24) - Bordering on non-prospect age, Canterino is putting up impressive K rates with equally depressing BB rates in AA. He's working his way back from yet another elbow strain in the Florida Complex league where he was knocked around in his latest 1 inning appearance. He's certainly not a top 10 prospect in a good farm system and hasn't pitched into the 5 inning this year. #6 Noah Miller (a19) - The only remaining draft pick from the first 3 rounds of 2021's draft now that Petty, Povich and Hajjar have all been moved, Miller is holding his own at the plate in Ft. Myers while playing very good defense. He's not an elite prospect at this point, but there's a chance Miller can improve his contact skills as he was drafted out of high school. Right now, Miller looks passive at the plate with a 15% walk and 25% strikeout rate more associated with power hitters, but Miller's power tool is scouted as pretty modest and he hasn't shown any of it this year. #7 Matt Wallner (a24) - Wallner was racing up the prospect lists as a full fledged supernova-style bright spot in the Twins' system. Since his promotion to AAA, Wallner has gone stone cold with a .116/.224/.140 triple slash. That said, it's just 49 plate appearances. Please, please let his swing return to crush the opponent pitchers to end the season. #8 Misael Urbina (a20) - A speedy center fielder international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Urbina had a really great year in Ft. Myers last season. Unfortunately, he missed half this year due to visa issues. Currently getting his legs under him back in rookie ball, Urbina's hoping to salvage the season. #9 Brayan Medina (a19) - Came over in the Rogers/Rooker trade for Paddack/Pagan as a toss in. It speaks volumes when the Padres' PTBNL is in your top 10... In rookie ball, Medina has walked a ton of batters while holding the hits to a reasonable number with the help of a .265 BABIP and paltry 5.0% HR/FB rate. He's not in a good farm's top 20, possibly not top 30. #10 Ronny Henriquez (a22) - The extra player received as part of the Garver trade to the Rangers, Henriquez has struggled to keep batters off the base paths in AAA. Ronny was ranked as the Rangers #15 prospect due to his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the free pass last year in AA. He's probably taken a step back this year as the walk rate has increased by 50% at AAA and batters have been able to generate hits at will leading to his 1.52 WHIP and very rough 5.71 ERA. Also, the Twins have not really been limiting pitches much with Henriquez allowing him to throw up to 92... but he's rarely been able to finish 5 innings. That said, Henriquez has been able to keep a solid K% (though certainly not elite for MiLB), the .352 BABIP is way too high and the walk rate still isn't terrible by any means. So there's still some potential. On a good farm, Henriquez is probably borderline top 20, helped by his age. I'd argue the farm is currently a big step back from the position it was in back at the start of 2017, where it was middle of the pack. Barring some real turnarounds, I expect the Twins to grade out bottom 5. So where does that leave Falvey? He was brought in to rebuild the farm system so it would produce high value prospects and especially stock the rotation with high value, inexpensive cost controlled rotation arms the Twins could depend on for several years. While the farm has essentially produced 2 years of Sonny Gray, he's not cheap at $12MM per year and 2 years is hardly a long time. We also used the farm to pick up Tyler Mahle for 1.5 years, but he's also not going to be cheap next year, and certainly not long term. Maybe $12MM? The one glowing example in terms of expense and control is honestly Kenta Maeda. We got 4 years of a cheap, high value rotation arm from moving Brusdar Graterol. That said, I'm not sure the agreed upon strategy was to trade all the talent in the MiLB system for a couple years of productive MLB starters. That's not sustainable and it honestly hasn't been cheap overall. Instead, the Twins have typically felt like a directionless Frankenstein monster to me, pieced together each offseason in the hopes the pieces all gel and what comes out is a lightning strike with the scream "It's ALIVE!!" to begin a playoff season. Of course, winning solves everything. If the Twins win the World Series or even win a single playoff series, all will likely be forgotten. Every step short of that, though, has to heat up the seat under Falvey, especially given Falvey stretched the Twins' budget to $138MM (and beyond with recent trades) this year. Hard to believe the Twins turn a profit based on the attendance levels I saw and the Pohlads do not run this team as a hobby.

Last year he was in high school... this year he was pitching so well the Reds promoted him to A+ ball with a month and a half left on the season. That's serious fast tracking and it doesn't happen if the Reds aren't very, very impressed with what they saw. Twins "stud" Matt Canterino was being fawned over in A+ at age 23 and in his 3rd professional season after drafting him out of college, in between IL stints. Petty is 19, in his 2nd season and out of high school. Petty's ceiling was always Ace (as good as Gray used to be when he was young). Very high risk Petty would not be able to develop his changeup into a plus offering required for that, but last year in his exposure to hitters at the complex, the reports were glowing. Petty looked far more like a pitcher than many people expected. He was not a thrower. Better control than expected. Changeup and slider better than expected. The only other big concern was Petty's ability to remain healthy, which he has so far. Considering the Twins had, literally, nothing they could count on in the minors who looked like they had Ace potential, I was not happy with this trade. It's also worth noting the Reds took Chase Petty for Sonny Gray. That should tell you a lot about how the Reds saw Petty's value. Of the 125 pitchers with 70 innings or more this year, Gray has produced the 53rd highest fWAR. Meaning, he's provided the value of a very good #3, relative to his peers. Gray's actual production per inning pitched is certainly higher than that; however, he's been a pitcher who's struggled with injuries for most of the past decade. Now that he's in decline, his velocity is dropping and his metrics are fading. Gray's also being paid $12MM per year with the Twins having control only one more season. Gray provides a lot of surplus value at $12MM year at this point, and I don't deny that. I just would have rather parted with something other than Petty to get him.

Always a tough call on whether or not a non-Twins player should receive a Twins reward. Encarnation-Strand did all his work for the Twins so in that way, he earned it. Looking over the MLB.com top prospects list for the Twins today was a bit depressing.

Got it. Act of God. Nobody has responsibility for multi-million dollar assets. Sometimes things just don't work. What can you do?Somehow, I just don't think that perspective flies in big business.

Just saw Chase Petty was promoted to A+. I really do hate that trade.

Kennys Vargas got inducted into the HoF??????

I'm not saying the Twins always have to get it right, but they've got a multi-million dollar asset and they've failed to diagnose the problem with it. It doesn't really matter who's fault it is specifically, but it's basically either Alex Kirilloff's or the organization's, isn't it?

They don't really know why he's still having wrist pain after more than a year. I think it's fair to consider that a failure of the Twins medical/training staff to get a good diagnosis.

I can admit I was horribly off the mark on Duran. It's clear his control issues have been addressed and the guy's stuff is just filthy as originally advertised. My biggest question on him right now is... will the Twins look to stretch him back out to a starter? He's made it clear he prefers to start and the potential upside of seeing Duran pitch 162+ innings in a season is really enticing. I'd think the Twins could make him an starter next year and limit him the same way they've limited Bundy and Archer this year.

I think I wrote him off at the time of the trade. Strotman is still handing out free passes, but at least he's not giving up so many hits. His season BABIP is a very high .353 and that's been lower over the past two weeks, but the question is why. Is it because he was unlucky before or is it because he struggles with control and hitters can sit on pitches and make Strotman hittable? In other words, should Strotman have a high BABIP by nature or has he been really unlucky in AAA this year? My money is on the former. In regard to multiple inning outings, the former starter has 3 in the last 10 games. Two blowouts and a double-header. Last 10 games 10 G, 13.2 IP, 11.20 K/9 (28.3%), 5.27 BB/9 (13.3% BB), 1.24 WHIP, .281 BABIP (estimate) Bottom line for me is a 5.27 BB/9 in AAA doesn't translate to MLB well and control has always been the issue for Strotman.

I hear the Orioles have a history of correcting wrist issues in a week the Twins trainers and medical staff take years to figure out. i.e. JJ Hardy. I think it's time for outside opinions on Kirilloff.

Sanchez's inability to control the position defensively? As he throws out yet another base runner tonight (something defensive wizard Jeffers could only dream of)... btw, Sanchez is better than average with catcher framing this year. What is with the writers on this site. Did Sanchez steal all your girlfriends/boyfriends or something? Maybe he made a career of slapping your mom's in the face?

It was announced. Sano is done for the year, which also means Sano is done with the Twins and likely he's done being in MLB. The last of the slider, down and away = strike 3 Sano has been seen.

It's hard for me to respect Hosmer as a player or person at this point. He's been nothing but a boat anchor to the Padres since he signed. The least he could have done is taken one for the team, declined his player options and hit free agency next year fairly. I honestly would have loved to see San Diego DFA him on September 1st, just after he became ineligible for the playoffs since they're going to pay for him anyway. I suppose it's just the same as when teams screw over their prospects with service time manipulation, etc. I think I'm just a fair is fair, 8hrs work for 8hrs pay kind of person.

Honestly, these moves feel like they signal a do or die situation for the front office. Hopefully, Mahle is the exceedingly rare starter who can manage to outperform the league HR/FB rate long term, though, honestly, I think the front office's hands were a bit tied after the collapse of top prospects this year. It's hard to imagine the Twins' farm system ranking out of the basement of MLB if a couple of the top guys don't take big steps forward to end the season. The loss of Povich, Steer, Hajjar and Encarnation-Strand hurt, but they weren't going to change the status of the farm to above average. The Twins were going to have a well below average farm system no matter what at this point. These moves just gut what would have been the middle rank depth for good farm systems; however, that pushes an already weak system into the abyss. This is exactly the situation Falvey was hired to prevent. The only thing which should save his job at this point is a deep playoff run.

That's a nice solid bullpen, IMHO. Having two guys both worth closer duty and a couple solid middle relievers goes a long, long ways. Jax adding 2.5mph to his already improved fastball from last year has really let his slider play better and it's seemingly turned Jax into a solid reliever. Jax has exceeded my expectations and I think he may have achieved his ceiling. Really great for him and the Twins. I couldn't be happier for all involved.

...and it seems like the financial concept of "Net Present Value" gets overlooked a lot. i.e. having a good player with surplus value now provides more investment value than it would in the future. I look at it as we're getting a guy who looks like a great relief pitcher with a ton of surplus value (cheap for WAR) when the Twins have a huge need for that player in a season where the Twins are in a position for a potential playoff run. Even if Cade Povich turns into a good starter, we weren't going to see him for at least 2 more years, when the Twins might be struggling so even if he was a 3.0 WAR pitcher, his contributions to the team might not have moved the needle much in terms of true value to the club.

Lopez owns a .229 BABIP this year, but the launch angle against him is absurd at -0.7*. Makes sense as Lopez has generated a crazy high 60% ground ball rate. Walk rate is a bit high, but the K rate is elite. It's interesting because Lopez doesn't generate a huge number of swinging strikes. It makes sense as he's a sinkerball pitcher. It looks like Lopez has entirely given up on his 4 seamer this year. It'll be interesting to see if his stuff continues to play at the elite level of whether or not MLB hitters will adapt, but for right now, he looks like the real deal.