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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I agee. I don't believe in his recent stats and I think it's too late to view Buxton as a prospect who took it to the next level. You're putting faith in the recent excellent performance at the plate as proof Buxton was still growing and did take it to the next level. It results in us having polar opposite opinions on him. September probably wouldn't change either of our opinions on the subject. Luckily, neither one of us have jobs depending on how Buxton performs or what contract he might sign.
  2. bean5302
    Yes. That's my reasoning. 25% of Buxton's hits in 2020 came from infield grounders. Make that 15% to be close to his average year. In 2019, his infield hit rate was 18%. Drop that to 12% (still good but simulating a lost step). Results: 2020 From .254/.267/.577 OPS .844 to .231/.244/.544 OPS .788. He literally drops over 50 points of OPS. 2019 From .262/.314/.513 OPS .827 to .247/.298/.498 OPS .776. Again, a 50 point OPS drop. I don't believe people realize just how unbelievably important Buxton's ability to beat that ground ball out by a step is to his game at the plate. He gets a lot of his OPS from those hits.
  3. bean5302
    The front office has no proven options at CF for next year and they probably don't have a great option the year after in the works, either and I'd like to see the Twins try and compete. I'd say the Pohlads qualify as "deep pockets" and decline doesn't mean Buxton is DFA'd next year.
  4. bean5302
    This isn't about his range in CF. I have no questions he'll continue to be a good center fielder. This has to do with his infield hits. Buxton gets so many of his hits by a single step. His home plate to 1B rate is ultra-elite. He's the fastest player to 1B in baseball, period, and that is a huge component to his value at the plate because he does have a large number of weak contact, rollover hits in the infield. It only takes a step and many of those "hits" turn into outs.
  5. bean5302
    Strotman entered 2018 as a borderline top 20 organizational prospect for Tampa and averaged 3.5 BB/9 vs. 8.4 K/9 in Regular-A ball in that 2018 season. That's not very good, but it's certainly possible to show a big rebound from something like that. It's just that Strotman hasn't rebounded. He's continued to have high walk rates year after year. You can blame it on innings and the UCL not feeling 100% "normal" in 2019, but it's pretty hard to buy that this year. Strotman has improved his walk rate a lot with the Saints, but it looks like it's coming at the cost of strikeouts and hits. Even with the Saints, Strotman's overally BB/9 is still 3.8, and that's likely to balloon against must better MLB hitters. Fangraphs and MLB have Strotman's command at 45 and 50, respectively. It's not like there's no hope for Strotman, but he owns a WHIP of 1.47 on the season in AAA and it's gotten worse since he seems to have concentrated on reducing his walks.
  6. bean5302
    Yes. I believe he's in decline because speed is so integral to his value. 245 plate appearances in 63 games. That's the last two years for Buxton. The max I'd go for Buxton is 3 years and $45MM.
  7. bean5302
    I am most certainly NOT all knowing LOL. Baseball Reference and Fangraphs are usually where I look and my opinions are rarely based on watching players because I don't trust my eyes at all. There are a lot of members on this site who scout players way more in person and they see much more than I do. Stats don't always tell everything, but I think they're helpful in avoiding emotional bias. When we got Strotman and Ryan, it looked like an absolute fleecing of arguably the best FO in MLB, and that's a red flag right away. I immediately started looking into peripherals and saw Strotman's ERA was an illustion at Tampa's AAA affiliate, but Ryan looks like the real deal to me. His BB, K and WHIP rates look like they'll play.
  8. bean5302
    He's not. He's a .250 hitter in decline with 20-25 HR power over a full season.
  9. bean5302
    I'd trade Buxton if there's an offer which impresses me and not look back. I'd like an servicable CF or SS with 2+ years of team control and a top 50 prospect. I don't think Buxton is capable of producing more than 6.0 fWAR peak or 5.0 fWAR avg in 150 games which will never happen in his career. Buxton is good for 60-80 games a year which means the Twins have to essentially carry a 27 man roster just to offset Buxton's constant injuries.
  10. bean5302
    Strotman has an extended pre-Twins history of not being able to throw strikes. I think the Twins already won th trade with just Ryan so there must have been a huge amount of interest in Cruz. Strotman hasn't put up BB/9 numbers lower than 3.4 since his time in Low-A in 2017. Over full seasons, not lower than 4.5 since A ball in 2018. I consider Strotman a throw in at the end of the trade negotiations.
  11. bean5302
    Observation was he was pitching hurt. Shaking his arm multiple times between pitches while not hitting his spots. Baldelli actually had to address that question, but blew if off as normal this season for Maeda. From my understanding even Glavine (MLB play-by-play) was noting it as unusual during the game, I guess.
  12. bean5302
    Very nice to see Soularie collect a couple hits. He's missed a ton of time this year and I'm looking forward to seeing his athleticism on display!
  13. bean5302
    Buxton's assignment to AAA probably has less to do with how he feels swinging a bat and more to do with whether or not he has his timing down. Having Buxton flail hopelessly away at MLB pitching doesn't do him or the Twins any favors because Buxton's peformance impacts his arbitration value making the Twins look like they intentionally wanted Buxton to play poorly. If you watched the game, how did his timing on his other trips to the plate look? (legitimately asking)
  14. bean5302
    Chris Parmelee a24 season 2012 - .338/.457/.645 OPS 1.102, but it's not really apples to apples. Parmelee skipped AAA in 2011 for his cup of coffee, raked at the MLB level and made the 2012 opening day roster. He was then awful for 1-1/2 months with the Twins before getting demoted to AAA where he obliterated the ball to the posted line. Miranda has never been to the MLB level and he's never had the benefit of seeing MLB pitching so he could identify areas he could improve which were hidden against MiLB pitching. That's also why I think even a month or two in MLB can be incredibly valuable. MiLB players don't have the polish MLB players have. As a batter, for example, MLB pitchers will expose weaknesses a batter didn't know they had because MiLB pitchers were never able to exploit them. I also think it's why so many AAAA players are created after a brief MLB stint (the Chris Parmelee's).
  15. bean5302
    Maeda was pitching hurt and the Twins were facing one of the best starting pitchers in MLB. Seems like a little extra on the rage meter in here.
  16. bean5302
    Canterino going back to the IL with an elbow sprain really does scream out TJ to me. Glad to see Dobnak back on the mound. It has to feel good to pitch competitively again and see the big show light at the end of the tunnel! Nice to see Miranda raking again tonight. I share the sentiment he's been awesome this year, but he's actually been pretty pedestrian overall this month. .279/.347/.426 OPS .773 in 16 games coming into tonight. SSS, but it was extra bewildering when Donaldson was hurt and Miranda was simply on fire.
  17. bean5302
    I don't know who looks at ages alone, but ages are important when evaluating prospect potential because elite players generally develop quickly. While Twins fans may view 24 as young, it's not. Elite pitcher take 1-3 years to make MLB. That's age 20-23, generally. Joe Ryan, even having missed a year, is still older than a typical elite pitching prospect... and he was traded by a team with renown for developing starting pitching and promoting their prospects to MLB aggressively for a rental DH so tempering expectations is reasonable. That said, I like Ryan a lot. His performance has been very impressive and I think he will be a good piece in the Twins' starting rotation.
  18. bean5302
    In regard to Buxton... let's say the Twins immediately put him into MLB action and Buxton flails away for the first week until he gets up to speed. It drops his performance on the season or he aggravates his knuckle and the Twins have to put him back on the IL. The Twins are pointing at that performance in arbitration. It just doesn't look good to potentially make your players look bad.
  19. bean5302
    We have different opinions on the subject.
  20. bean5302
    Nobody has a clue what this front office is doing at this point and it doesn't look like they have a clue, either. At least it puts everybody in the same boat.
  21. bean5302
    Yeah, having him go back out there for the 5th when he was already at 98 pitches already probably wasn't expected. I suppose he did turn in an 11 pitch inning. Despite not giving up any runs, he still hit one batter wasn't even hitt 89mph on his fastball.
  22. bean5302
    The post was about his ceiling. If you believe Arraez's absolute ceiling is what he's already shown as a spot starting utility infielder at ages 22-24 where he's already, consistently, generating a rate of 4-5 WAR per full season, you're welcome to believe that. 60 WAR gets you into the HoF. You can do the math on how good Arraez has been.
  23. bean5302
    The statements by the Twins and Yankees say it all in the playoffs. Yankees style statement: "We know they're a good team otherwise they wouldn't be in the playoffs, but if we just go out there and play our game, we're confident we're going to win. Honestly, anything short of a World Series victory for us is disappointing." Twins style statement: "You know, we're just enjoying another trip to the playoffs. That's why we play the game. These types of opportunities aren't guaranteed so we're really proud of what we've accomplished. We're going to go out there and try to give 100% and if we do that, we think we have a real good team and a good shot." It's the expectation of winning vs. the hope of winning. Totally different mindsets and I think the "Minnesota Nice" Twins get overwhelmed in the playoffs by a superior attitude and presence.
  24. bean5302
    That's old Yankee Stadium. The new one isn't what I'd call beautiful, but definitely nicer.
  25. bean5302
    Not so sure about the ceiling being so far off from Carew or Gwynn. I don't think Arraez will ever get as many plate appearances as those legends or have as long a career, but Arraez is young and his OPS+ is 10pts away from those guys' careers. Arraez just needs to commit to his conditioning to have a chance at staying healthy. If he does that, I think he's has a shot to be nearly as good as those greats. We're certainly not talking chasms here. Carew, Gwynn, Arraez over their first 3 seasons. Random order, but I can tell you Arraez isn't the lowest... .324/.386/.419 OPS .805 = OPS+ 122 .299/.346/.408 OPS .754 = OPS+ 115 .329/.382/.415 OPS .797 = OPS+ 125 I believe Mauer will get in, no doubts at this point. I was concerned, like everybody else, about his first base time and short career. Almost ever writer I've seen has also considered Mauer a HoF'er, but were all wondering about what other writers were going to do. Well, it seems like the vast majority of people feel the same way. They'd vote for Mauer, but most don't expect him to be first ballot.
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