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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Chase Petty last 4 starts at A+ as a 19yr old = 3.06 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 13.25 K/9 (35.6%), 1.53 BB/9 (4.1%), 0.96 WHIP. He is dominating high A right now, and he's looking like a true potential ace despite his first A+ start hiccup. It's not like anybody can say he'll continue to dominate since sometimes things just don't pan out (Balazovic). The false dilemma is strong on the Gray or Petty choice around here. You could have both. Or you could have Petty and a different starter. I'm sure the Reds didn't say "Petty or NOTHING!!!"
  2. bean5302
    I feel like losing the Wildcard series 2-1 would be like tossing a cracker to a starving person.
  3. bean5302
    It's strange how big of a gap there is between some stadiums based on what I've experienced and how I'd rank them and where you'd put them. I didn't like Petco, at all. Navigating the various areas of the stadium was difficult and the stadium had a hospital-like sterile feel to it. Conversely, the Coliseum has been enjoyable for me, except the lack of fans. Good food and beer options, a stadium which was pretty easy to navigate. Convenient BART Service, friendly fans. Angel Stadium would rank way, way down there for me, too. Fenway is nice, but overrated IMHO.
  4. bean5302
    Yeah, it's crazy. He's been playing with significant back issues this year and even though he's played fewer games than Buxton, Trout still has a lead in fWAR. Trout should hit maybe 110-115 games this year and he'll finish with over 5 WAR. Still, the injuries are seriously threatening the tail end of his career. At this point, I'd expect Trout to finish up at 115-135 career bWAR, putting him way up there, but not with the guys like Mays, Ruth, Bonds, etc.
  5. bean5302
    Well, the MiLB team owners are willing to post millions or even tens of millions of dollars to become an affiliate. No official numbers were released, but the St. Paul Saints supposedly posted something like $20MM. Since MiLB teams do not pay player salaries or benefits, their costs are fairly limited in the grand scheme of things. They still have stadium operating costs and travel costs, etc, but with ticket sales and concessions, I'd imagine they do okay.
  6. bean5302
    Lewis is on a timeline for April/May, not June/July right now.
  7. bean5302
    I think it's fair to criticize me on that adjective. I looked the other day and Rodriguez was at 3.5 fWAR. He could hit 5.0 fWAR just because of how WAR works, but he's on pace for a 4.4 fWAR season. Still, I think you're right about that being worthy of "great." About as good as you could hope for from a Rookie. I guess I meant "great" as in one of the all time great rookie campaigns and that it's not. A 4.5ish fWAR season from a rookie happens just about every year, I think.
  8. bean5302
    A lot depends on this post season. If the Twins make it, win a playoff series or especially the World Series, it will be worth it. A playoff series win would be absolutely huge for this franchise. If the Twins miss the postseason, it's going to be very hard to justify the outflow of talent, especially if the top prospects in the minors don't all take major steps forward down the stretch.
  9. bean5302
    I'd absolutely love to see Maeda back, if he's really ready. I'm sure the Twins will watch him very closely to verify how his command looks, but that'll have to come against AAA guys. The fact they haven't shut him down already is very encouraging about how he's progressing. I think, right now, Maeda returns if the Twins are going to make the playoffs or are highly likely to make them. If the Twins look to be out of it in mid-September, Maeda gets shut down.
  10. bean5302
    While true, I was really addressing the apologist comments for Falvey and Levine. They're well past the grace period for being able to use the excuse of learning on the job or installing the program, etc. It's time for them to sink or swim. This is their team, their draft picks or at the very least, their development system, their trades, their free agent signings.
  11. bean5302
    Looking for a little bright side (like the Twins' fWAR) isn't wrong, and the trade moves were all very good. The reviews were all glowing around here because it was obvious the moves the front office made were good. It's just a question of whether or not it was enough.
  12. bean5302
    I can see it now... 30 years in the future, the front office will still be "learning on the job."
  13. bean5302
    It's not about Maeda's arm strength or professionalism. It's about the track record of UCL repair recipients often being unable to command their pitches until they get enough repetition to get a solid feel for them. It's common to see walk rates increase a lot for at least a short while when pitchers return.
  14. bean5302
    Trout already has more fWAR and he's only 3 bWAR short of Griffey, Jr's career.
  15. bean5302
    Trevor Story is at 2B because the Red Sox still have Boegarts and they promised they'd let him play SS. Xander Boegarts Trea Turner Carlos Correa Dansby Swanson It's arguably an as good or better SS class than last year, but for every elite free agent shortstop, that means a team needs a shortstop to replace the outgoing one.
  16. bean5302
    Gordon actually has a very strong arm... He was throwing mid 90s across the diamond. You can hate him for his first step, but he has all the tools to be a solid center fielder including the range, the route running and the arm.
  17. bean5302
    Nope. If he's not ready for the regular season, experiment time for a guy who may struggle to throw strikes isn't the best option for the playoffs.
  18. bean5302
    I do not see the Twins picking up Bundy's option at $11MM. It's just too much to pay for even a solid #5. I also think Bundy might turn this season into a 2 year contract somewhere. It's tough to gauge what the market will look like.
  19. bean5302
    Should be interesting to see how things pan out. MiLB is obviously an enormously different animal than other leagues because of the sheer scale of players.
  20. bean5302
    If spin rates and pitch velocity were the only things that mattered, Pagan would be great. He's not. You can have the best spin rate in the world and the highest velocity in the world, but if the hitters know when and where the ball is going to be, they're going to put it in the seats. Very few pitchers are Mariano Rivera who can throw a single pitch with devastating results. Deception is important. If hitters know what's coming, they're going to crush it. Placement is important. Hang a curve in the meat of the strike zone and hitters will crush it. Velocity is valuable. Obviously, faster means less time to react. Spin rate is valuable. The faster is spins, the more it moves, but when it moves can depend a lot on the grip and throwing motion. If a ball consistently moves in a nice arc, hitters will crush it. Later break is much better. Bundy may not have huge velocity, but there's a big velocity and movement separation between his pitches. Lefties struggle to figure out whether it's a changeup, curve or a 4 seamer and righties need to figure out if it's a 4 seamer, sinker or slider. If they all look the same coming out of the hand, it's just a guessing game. Guess wrong and it's a strike or mediocre contact. Because Bundy doesn't issue free passes, and he can get away with allowing more hits. WHIP is what's important and Bundy's WHIP is 1.21 (good enough).
  21. bean5302
    14 years and $464MM is what this will cost the Mariners in that instance. A steal, eh? Mike Trout, so far in his 2-15 years at $280MM. The Mariners will be paying $180MM more than the Angels paid Trout, and Trout already has a better career than Ken Griffey Jr despite only having earned $175MM total. If Julio Rodriguez turns into Ken Griffey, Jr., the Mariners will have overpaid. If Julio Rodriguez turns into Barry Bonds or Mike Trout, now the Mariners maybe win.
  22. bean5302
    Nobody can "place the ball." Even the very best hitters in MLB history cannot place the ball. The direction of the ball's path is largely determined by the player's stance and swing. The rest depends on timing. Some players have swings which just don't stay in a good plane of the strike zone very long making the timing more critical so choosing the direction of the ball is virtually impossible. Besides that, if players could just "place the ball" they'd never record an out, ever. Every ball in play would be a hit. Every time. Paul Goldschmidt is this year's biggest outlier with a batting average 72pts higher than expected. Is he able to "place the ball?" Here's his history. AVG versus xBA 2015 .321 vs .279 = +42 2016 .297 vs .271 = +26 2017 .290 vs .284 = +6 2018 .260 vs .271 = -11 2019 .304 vs .257 = +47 2020 .294 vs .285 = +9 2021 .338 vs .265 = +73 Even though Goldy is one of the best hitters in MLB, he's not able to consistently record batting averages far over his expected. The median and mean average? +26-27pts. Less than 10%.
  23. bean5302
    That clearly goes against the front office's philosophy. They haven't valued good relievers, like, ever.
  24. bean5302
    He just got a bare minimum of 12 years and $204MM for 3/4ers of a good, but not great, rookie campaign. If Rodriguez doesn't turn into a Mike Trout level player, the Mariners lose. Betting on your prospect turning into one of the top 20 greatest baseball players of all time without even watching them for 2 years is asinine.
  25. bean5302
    I don't care about this play which was advertised and my opinion is the only thing which matters in this world so I'm angry the play was advertised. That's pretty much what this entire thread boils down to.
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