bean5302

I just don't see where you're really going with this. Povich is not young or inexperienced vs. his competition and he's had last year real world professional experience on the mound (though limited), and an entire offseason to work on a throwing program, mechanics, etc. He's also had this season to see the results from the offseason throwing program. This is his 2nd year of professional experience. If you want to take the opinion I should say 1 year of experience or I should have said 1.5 years experience because of the two pro seasons and one offseason or whatever, that's your opinion. It could be the Twins aren't actually trying to evaluate Povich's best performance numbers right now and are instead having him focus on getting command and control over one or more of his pitches. I'd say that's pretty likely considering Povich's best rank was #276 by Baseball America and unranked by everybody else when the Twins took him at #98. I agree results are basically all normal fans like myself can get excited about because I'm not part of the Twins' development team. All I can really judge is the numbers, but I also understand the numbers are not a reflection of the work the pitcher is doing on the bump in games, but the work the pitcher put in away from the game. The game itself is proof of the work and the theory. When it comes to the actual results, they are not that impressive. A 4.00 ERA and 5.00 RA9 are adequate, not exciting. The 1.21 WHIP is pretty good, but certainly not great. That's why I say we'll just have to wait and see.

I sorted Fangraphs' team data from a couple days ago. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=11,a

You believe the only value teams offer players is experience while they're on the mound facing competition? Got it. Here's a thought to consider. Coaches, trainers, medical staff, analytics departments and other staff work on development even while a pitcher isn't actively on the mound including offseason workouts and training programs. What happens on the mound itself is a reflection of all the work (days/weeks/months) which happens off the mound. You think Josh Winder just started throwing 7mph faster than when he was drafted because the pitching coach ran out there between innings and said, "hey, throw harder?" I mean, you're free to ignore all the workouts, throwing programs and buildup...

Matt Capps was a huge upgrade over Jon Rauch and the Twins acquired Matt Capps for the playoffs, not necessarily for the following year. Wilson Ramos was the Twins' 3rd or 4th ranked prospect and he was on some of the top 100 lists to begin the year, but by 2011, Ramos was about the #5 (or lower) prospect for the Nationals. Ramos has managed a 15 WAR career over 11 years since and is a free agent recovering from his 3rd ACL repair. People on this site act like Ramos was Buster Posey or something...

An unmitigated disaster? Twins relief pitchers rank: 16th in ERA 21st in FIP 9th in xFIP 9th in Holds 24th in Saves 29th in Blown Saves To have blown saves or record saves, you have to be winning the game, which is why an excellent bullpen like Baltimore ranks far lower in holds and a dumpster fire bullpen like Cincinnati has ranks higher in blown saves than you'd expect. The Twins relievers have very good xFIPs with a mediocre ERA and poor FIP suggests the bullpen has largely been unlucky with home runs in particular (i.e. Tyler Duffey). I feel the Twins' bullpen is a bit of a victim of Buxtonitis around here. Any memorable blown leads is bad, just like anything less than a 5.000 OPS for Buxton is him underperforming.

Of course, that assumes the Twins don't just DFA Sano. I don't wish him bad luck or any negativity, but Sano has a lot to prove and doesn't have any time to do it. Hitting bombs off Rookie Ball pitchers at least suggests he has his timing back. It's probably just a matter of conditioning at this point and the 20 day rehab assignment is up in 14 days... how much conditioning can you improve in two weeks? I guess a bit, but the best place to improve conditioning is Ft. Myers... where the lowest level of play happens to be. There isn't sufficient time to demonstrate any ability at St. Paul and condition in Ft. Myers.

Who does Sano replace? I expect the odd man out will be Celestino. With Gordon and Buxton on the roster and St. Paul just 30 minutes away along with Celestino scuffling at the plate recently, he's probably first on the list to go down. Garlick's 30 years old at this point, he doesn't take walks and has no speed. He's an easy roster cut as well, IMHO.

2021 2022 Two years.

I don't think Buxton was snubbed ranks #6 in fWAR for outfielders (including Alvarez) and is ranked 4th among Center Fielders. Judge CF - 4.2 fWAR, 3.7 bWAR Alvarez - 3.9 fWAR, 4.2 bWAR (voted in as DH. has played about 40% of his games in LF) Trout CF - 3.7 fWAR, 3.7 bWAR Rodriguez CF - 3.0 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR Tucker - 2.7 fWAR, 3.3 bWAR Buxton CF - 2.5 fWAR, 2.9 bWAR Cedric Mullins II CF - 2.1 fWAR, 2.6 bWAR On top of that, you have Cedric Mullins II, who is a center fielder and will probably represent Baltimore as it's only player. As far as 1B OR 2B, you could make the argument Arraez has been snubbed, but his value has increased significantly lately with him building a lot of WAR from the boost of playing 2B and hitting even better. As a utility infielder, it's hard for Arraez to get the recognition he deserves. Arraez is #2 for both 1B and 2B behind Abreu and Altuve, respectively, but Arraez was well behind several 1B earlier this year. If Arraez was the 2B all year, I'd say he would have been better than Altuve, but Altuve is a household name who is on the path to the Hall of Fame right now.

Byron Buxton is not the greatest batter in the history in MLB. You say you know he isn't, yet you expect his stats will say he is.

What's not to be excited about? The 4.00 ERA / 5.00 RA9 at A+ ball from a two year pro college draftee.

RBI's. Not at all valuable for an individual stat. Very important for a team stat.

Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana both had more impressive streaks than Buxton's to start the year last year over the same number of plate appearances. Buxton is not the greatest hitter/player in MLB history. Fans should really appreciate him for what he is rather than taking the stat line from a handful of games and deciding that's who the player is. Buxton is a flawed hitter, who has poor contact rates, strikes out a lot and takes few walks. People asking for Buxton to change his swing to hit more line drives are actually asking for Buxton to go back to pre-2019 Buxton. You want Buxton to stop selling out for home runs? Get ready for a below average hitter at the plate. Buxton has done a remarkable job adapting his strengths to a plate approach which provides ANY value. This is as good as Buxton gets. In fact, I think Buxton is still exceeding his ceiling right now.

College arms are expected to dominate at Low A since Low-A is probably similar to the top Division I college baseball conferences in terms of competition level. High-A is a big step up, but if a college pitcher struggles there, it's a very bad sign. Generally, I don't get too excited about pitchers until they produce at AA because a single component of pitching can carry up until that point (stuff/control/command). Mechanics are obviously key to velocity as the right mechanics turned 5'10" 155lb Tim Lincecum into a 100mph fastball monster. Elite velocity can make a big difference below AA/AAA, but there are no MLB hitters who cannot put a 100mph straight-ball into the seats. Also, I don't really see the "filling out" as a good thing so I don't understand the obsession with everybody looking like Ben Rortvedt. Pitchers aren't impact players like NFL linebackers or something. The extra weight = extra strain on the body and body type means much less than mechanics in regard to velocity, but there seems to be a school of thought players who look like defensive lineman are ideal. Some people have wondered if the Twins pushing pitchers to change their mechanics to add velocity has led to the incredible level of injuries among Twins pitching prospects. It seems reasonable "filling out" could help in regard to building up certain muscle groups to relieve strain on joints, etc, but until the muscle groups supporting the mechanical changes are built up, I'd wager changes of injury increase quite a bit. I'm probably just babbling at this point. Back on topic... I'm not all in on the Povich bandwagon. Almost all prospects are younger than their competition and 1 year means nothing meaningful at any level of baseball. Povich is sitting at a 3.96 ERA (which isn't good) and considering he's a Division I college pitcher in his 2nd professional year at A+, I'd expect him to be good. Povich is a strike thrower so he doesn't walk a lot of guys, but he's not exactly skimpy on the walk rate, either at about 3/9. He also gives up a lot of hits so he's been unable to strand runners despite the high strikeout rate. His inability to strand runners has led to a rough 5.09 RA9. If a runner reaches on an error, it seems Povich isn't able to pitch out of the jam. Small sample sizes and less than stellar fielding in the minors no doubt contributes to the situation, though. Just have to wait and see.

Buxton goes 0-4, time for a trip to the IL! Buxton goes 4-4 with 4 HRs, he's back and his knee is perfect again! In any case, Buxton will likely always be a streaky hitter because he has pretty weak plate discipline. He doesn't take many walks and his contact rates are pretty poor. Buxton is not and never will be an MVP level player in my opinion. He's a potential perennial All Star talent, though. A 5-6 WAR full season player while his sprint speed and defensive value remains intact.

Gaetti didn't play for the Twins in 1991. He had already moved to the Angels.

Jhoan Duran sure gets a lot of love for a guy with 37 innings pitched at the MLB level. I don't know what the core of the Twins is going to look like. Buxton is a part of it. Apart from him, there's nobody on the roster I couldn't see being traded or regressing/declining off the roster.

It was when the Twins' farm system was so insanely bad that he got sent to the All Star Futures Game.

Correa resigning isn't about his willingness to play here, it's the Twins' willingness to pay here. The Twins are not going to come up with $150MM+ for Correa.

Great news for them! It seems reasonable to suspect Wallner may very well not head back to Wichita after the All Star Futures Game.

Swinging at a bad first pitch in the dirt.

Miami desperately needs outfield help now because they're building and we have those outfielders in spades. Also, the Marlins are deep in pitching prospects like Sixto Sanchez to backfill Lopez when he's gone.

Not sure why there are people advocating sticking with Joe Ryan here. He gave up 5 hits and 2 walks in 4.0 innings. That's a 1.50 WHIP while allowing 3 runs (2 earned) so it's not like Ryan was pitching particularly well out there. In regard to Ryan's struggles lately, it's not surprising considering how out of whack his ERA vs. FIP and xFIP were at the start of the season. It's just regression to the mean and he hasn't gotten there yet. Ryan owns a sparkly 3.00 ERA vs. his 3.68 FIP and 4.58 xFIP right now.

Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend, especially since the linked article supported my position... I do not necessarily care if the players at the high minors are younger than than competition they play against because it doesn't matter nearly as much as the level of experience the players have. Woods-Richardson was drafted at 17. He has 5 years of MiLB experience with the best coaches, trainers, equipment, sports medicine and analytics in the world. He's not a fresh off the high school diamond newbie. He's a 5 year professional baseball veteran who has played against elite talent to identify holes in his game and make adjustments. The 23 year old guy who's 2 years older than Woods-Richardson being pitched to has 1 year of experience out of college ball. It's obvious Woods-Richardson would have a massive advantage here. That's why Woods-Richardson's age isn't all that important to me. Talent is largely done being honed after 5 years. It's either there... or it's not. Top pitching talent usually takes 2-3 years out of college or 3-4 years out of high school to get through the minors, and rarely does it take 2 years more than that. Despite usually being 2-4 years younger, high school guys usually only take 1 year longer to reach the majors than college guys. Age does not matter nearly as much once players get into their 20s. That's my opinion, and my opinion was honed through many hours of investigating the subject. Then again, you researched to... like finding that article which agreed with me.

The (mean) average career WAR for a #5 pick is about 11ish with about 25% of first rounders never even making the big show. https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586 Gordon is such a hot topic because he's been so written off, and then he's struggled off and on. It seems like today, this minute, he's accepted as a good 26th man. I suppose that is a big step forward among this fanbase considering Gordon had a few vocal supporters with a lot of detractors wondering why Gordon should even be getting plate appearances going into last year. I also believe Gordon is going to have to take more walks. Going the Eddie Rosario route with plate discipline leads to a lot of feast and famine at the plate. He could get lucky and finish strong or he could slump hard and find himself on the edges of MiLB contracts. In any case, Gordon was slow to adapt to each level of play, but he always adapted. It seems like the MLB level is just the same. Gordon is slowly getting better and better. He's sitting at a wRC+ 108 on the season and I don't feel like he's necessarily reached his absolute ceiling, but it's really hard to believe he can keep up the growth. Since the start of June, he owns a .302/.362/.524 OPS .886 wRC+ 154 slash line with the help of a .348 BABIP which I don't think is sustainable, though the underlying metrics... aren't at all out of whack. Gordon has averaged an exit velocity of a near elite 92.6mph (max 110.7mph) over the span. His barrel rate of 20.4% and ridiculous hard hit rate of 59.2% coincide with a near optimal 15.6* launch angle. The line drive rate has been excellent at 24.5% with a relatively low 36.7% ground ball rate. The big issue, to me, appears to be the fact he's swinging at 45% of pitches outside the zone, but crushing them nonetheless. It's resulted in his performance being positive against every single off-speed and breaking pitch over that span and he's been destroying changeups and curveballs. I just don't feel like that's sustainable. Nor is the 82.6% first pitch strike situation he's gotten himself into. Fun to watch though.