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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Guess I have egg on my face over that one LOL.
  2. bean5302
    I was responding to the post above mine. Thanks, but I think I'll continue to have an opinion.
  3. bean5302
    A couple months of Eduardo Escobar vs. Jose Berrios for more than a full year, plus the expected value of a qualifying offer is an enormous difference in value. If the Twins don't get anything of value out of Woods-Richardson or Martin until 2025, it'll be pretty horrible. Duran was part of 2 mid level and 1 unranked prospect throw all playing in the low minors. Martin and Woods-Richardson were both top tier prospects playing in the high majors. Totally different expectations.
  4. bean5302
    It's been an consistent issue since the Twins got him from the latest reads. Also, it might explain a lot about Woods-Richardson being assigned to the Development List instead of AA when he arrived from Tokyo.
  5. bean5302
    Kopech is a perfect example. He was exclusively a starter through the minors, had to have UCL surgery and returned as a reliever due to the innings and pitch limits. He then shifted back into a starter role this year. Kopech has not been as dominant as a starter, but he's certainly shown promise and periods of dominance. 2021 - 0.8 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR 2022 - 1.8 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR with probably 5 starts left Even if Kopech pitches the same down the stretch as he has overall this year, he'll match his fWAR from last year and greatly exceed his bWAR.
  6. bean5302
    No, it really can't if Duran is committed to wanting a shot to start. Starters get contracts 2-3x as long as relievers and the annual value is 2-3x greater. Forcing Duran to pitch out the pen when he hasn't had a chance to start and wants to will not only cripple Duran's potential career earnings, it will severely damage the Twins' relationship with the pitcher while utterly gutting the potential on field value to the franchise. It's a totally different story if Duran comes to the conclusion he pitches best out of the pen and grows comfortable there like Trevor May did. Largest reliever contract in history? 5yrs $86MM to Aroldis Chapman. Largest starter contract in MLB history? 9yrs $324MM to Gerrit Cole. Highest Reliever AAV? $18MM to Liam Hendricks Highest Starter AAV? $43MM to Max Scherzer Recent HoF inductees. Highest Starter bWAR? Greg Maddux 107 bWAR mean avg 4.7 bWAR Highest Reliever bWAR? Mariano Rivera 56 bWAR mean avg 3.0 bWAR
  7. bean5302
    Not really. The Twins will not agree to Pagan's arbitration salary so he's going to be non-tendered and become a free agent. If the Twins are betting the season on saving a few bucks on Pagan next year, that's an awfully lousy gamble.
  8. bean5302
    This is the same kind of article I would have expected to see back in like 2013. Mauer isn't a leader because he's not vocal enough! Buxton isn't a leader? The guy is learning Spanish to better communicate and be more inclusive with his teammates. Hard to get a better example of leadership. https://www.inforum.com/sports/pro/twins-center-fielder-byron-buxton-dives-into-new-challenge-learning-spanish Correa isn't a leader? The guy makes his opinions known on team roster decisions and how much he values players. Several players have talked about playing with Correa and how he inspires and helps them. The Twins just aren't a great team. They're a good team dealing with a lot of injuries to guys who were expected to be core players this year like Buxton, Sano, Larnach, Kepler, Ober and Paddack and several players they were really hoping would step up and deliver on their potential like Lewis, and Winder. The Twins are 8th in MLB and 4th in the AL in batting WAR. It's clear why they're not winning games, and that's pitching. Now, when it comes to pitching, Minnesota's bullpen has been a huge issue, compounded by the short appearances of their starters which is certainly part front office and manager game philosophy.
  9. bean5302
    That's not good. The word was the Twins had been working with him to regain velocity, but if he's struggling at under 90mph at this point, after having a very well rested arm, that's pretty damning. From MLB.com At his best, Woods Richardson is an intriguing combination of size, stuff and feel for pitching. The Twins are working with him to regain the velocity on his fastball, which still features good movement but averaged only around 91 mph in 2021. He touched 96 mph, so the organization thinks more consistent velocity is in there if he can access it. His curve, an upper-70s downer, is a tick better than his low-80s slider, but it’s his changeup that is his only plus pitch right now, thrown with good fade and deception. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/simeon-woods-richardson-680573 If Woods-Richardson can't at least get his fastball into the low 90s, I'd be surprised if he would be effective at the MLB level. Veteran pitchers who've mastered their craft and have years of experience against MLB competition to know what works can often pitch effectively enough without the velocity, but for a rookie? That's a very tall call and one reason I'm not high at all on Cole Sands starting.
  10. bean5302
    It's a pretty big leap to say the players are confused about Baldelli's decisions in game. While Gray is obviously not happy with being pulled early, I don't see him acting pissed when Baldelli walks out to change pitchers as if he was totally blindsided. I'd be surprised to find out the players don't understand the philosophy or the decisions Baldelli is making. They may not like it or agree with it, but that doesn't mean they don't comprehend the concept.
  11. bean5302
    The projections are made by people who are paid to evaluate players and the projections are generally treated as dollar value by MLB front offices. These lists are a general estimate, by professionals, of how much good talent a farm system has relative to other teams in the league. There are always guys who are going to rocket up the prospect charts (Winder) or tank down (Cavaco). Teams will get lucky with guys who didn't honestly look like more than role players (Arraez) and unluck with guys who were supposed to be game changers (Fernando Romero). Using single outliers as examples of how the systems generally work isn't realistic. What this farm system ranking is really saying is the Twins probably don't have much to count on from their farm in the next couple of years. Minnesota will need to win with the roster they have and big money free agency dollars. Is that concerning to a fan who wants to see sustainable performance? To me it is. Do I care about that if the Twins win the World Series this year? Nope.
  12. bean5302
    Matt Wallner, in his comprehensive 28 games in AAA...
  13. bean5302
    I can't comprehend the DFA of Duffey while keeping Pagan. I'd like Pagan to be able to turn a corner, but his pitches don't work. The only pitch he has is the 4 seamer, but without anything else to rely upon, it's going to be a tough row to hoe. That cutter should never be thrown again. Cutter 2017 = -5.6 runs 2018 = -6.1 runs 2019 = -3.9 runs 2020 = -3.1 runs 2021 = -4.2 runs 2022 = -4.9 runs I mean.. come ON. Isn't that enough track record to know the pitch does not work??
  14. bean5302
    Duran wants to start. His manager? Condescendingly and dismissively jokes about it. I love the supportive attitude, especially after management took a pie to the face from their best starting pitcher just a couple days ago and then immediately after, yanked another starter who had a shutout going at 71 pitches just to have the reliever cough up a run in a game the Twins lost. I think Duran should be given the opportunity to start next year as his innings have ramped up nicely this year and he's been able to handle the workload. He was always a starter in the minors and he can dial it back from 103 to 99 and be effective. You're talking about the potential of having an ace under long term team control for cheap. The first truly legitimate ace developed in the minors by this organization since... ummm Viola? Duran is worth about 3x more to the team as a starter. Duran has been everything and more than I expected. I didn't have high hopes for him based on last years walk rate and getting so used to prospects being highly praised for "stuff" that just didn't translate with results in the minors only to discover it got even worse at the majors. Duran's had poise, shown command and control and wipeout pitches which have totally owned opponents and this is his rookie season. He could continue to get better.
  15. bean5302
    The bullpen gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings. 3.60 ERA. Can't expect them to allow fewer runs than that. I don't think it's anybody's "fault." The Twins scored 3, allowed 4. That's a tightly contested, well fought ball game where neither team did a lot more or less than expected.
  16. bean5302
    Throws as hard as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but starts to look like batting practice, eh? Seems like a strong strike against Falvey for signing the guy if he's an opener and not a starter.
  17. bean5302
    It's not concerning to me if the Twins make a playoff run this year.
  18. bean5302
    MLB has just updated it's prospect rankings and three Twins have made the top 100. #33 Brooks Lee https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/brooks-lee-686797 #61 Royce Lewis https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/royce-lewis-668904 #97 Emmanuel Rodriguez https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/emmanuel-rodriguez-691181 Overall, the Twins' farm system is ranked #22 in MLB. Explanations and the biggest movers. https://www.mlb.com/news/top-30-prospect-lists-midseason-rankings-updates-2022?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage The Guardians are ranked #7 with 5 top 100 players, and the rest of the AL Central teams Twins, Tigers, Royals, and White Sox are literally #22-25, respectively. If MLB is at all correct, Cleveland looks a lot more dangerous than I was expecting, especially considering they're Complete Twins top 30 list https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/
  19. bean5302
    Plucking Smeltzer before a double header today will put some pressure on the Saints to fill the gap, and it'll burn a few of their guys. I don't think there's any plan to call Sanchez up.
  20. bean5302
    MoY is really an award given to a team who was crappy and suddenly played well. It would be really interesting, and I'd expect it'll be coming someday, to have a Manager WAR. Based on the percentage of times inherited base runners score, reliever WPA vs. reliever WAR, optimal lineup efficiency, etc.
  21. bean5302
    Bundy should be going 6-8 innings a game. His pitch counts are almost always very efficient. In the process of debating and researching the TTO theories, the stats on how frequently average pitchers are asked to go out to the mound for the 6th inning, and the answer is very frequently. Nearly 80% of MLB starters, on average, are on the mound in the 6th inning. My concern is the extreme shifting in Bundy's pitch counts at this point. I knew Baldelli was pulling him early and with few pitches, but I had no idea how drastically different Bundy's pitch counts have been. Bundy's workload has varied by over to 60% in back to back games. He's seen games where he's thrown 107 pitches and games where he's been pulled at 58 for seemingly no reason. On average, Bundy can only guess how many pitches he's going to throw as the average difference in his pitch count is almost 25% from game to game. This cannot be good for his health. Arguments the Twins are limiting innings or pitch counts etc to protect their pitchers seem unreasonable to me at this point. It seems the only reason behind the moves is the commitment to winning each and every game with the philosophy the front office and manager have agreed to follow. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong.
  22. bean5302
    ...and?... Are you saying it's not important the Twins keep it close? Are you implying the Twins are guaranteed a playoff spot because they're not currently in the playoffs if the season ends because MLB will just say, awww, we like the Twins, let's let them in? Are you thinking it's guaranteed 3 of the other 4 teams currently ahead of the Twins or just barely behind them are all going to tank and the Twins are going to automatically make the playoffs despite having a tough schedule coming up? The Twins are out of the playoffs even as of now, a game better in the standings than they were yesterday. If they don't keep it close for the rest of the month, I'd be awfully surprised at their ability to close the gap in September. The Twins are behind the Mariners, Blue Jays and Rays for the playoffs odds right now and 15 of their first 18 games in September come against teams above .500.
  23. bean5302
    Yep. All Palacios has done was put together a remarkably similar campaign in AAA as he had last year in AA. 2021 AA OPS = .779, wRC+ 109, 9.8% BB, 23.6% K 2022 AAA OPS = .796, wRC+ 111, 7.7% BB, 25.0% K Unfortunately, his fielding at SS is pretty poor. He's got just about the lowest RF/9 in the league and his fielding percentage is rough as well. I really don't understand why the Twins struggle so greatly when it comes to getting their shortstops to stop booting balls, but it's become clear to me it's an organizational problem.
  24. bean5302
    If we're nitpicking... I know Bundy isn't people's favorite pitcher around here, but it's rough when you give him all the earned runs the Rangers pitching staff allowed, too. Earning 3 earned runs in a 2-1 win smacks of malice. LOL
  25. bean5302
    Cole Sands struggles with control. I was at the aforementioned game where Sands went 3 innings against the Blue Jays and it always felt like Sands was just on the edge of getting annihilated, frequently missing his spots by wide margins. Maybe Sands can be a long reliever, but I'm not sold on his MLB level skills in longer outings. Sands average fastball went from 91mph to 93mph when he was given 1 inning appearances.
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