bean5302

Who signs in the 40th round? Just because players are drafted does not mean they're signed. No high schooler is signing outside the 10th round. So you have college players who might sign, but are unlikely to jeopardize a scholarship based on a 11+ round selection. That leaves you with college players losing eligibility or are graduating. Basically, anybody signing outside the 10th round knows they're an EXTREME long shot and are doing it for a single season of fun and novelty. "Hey, I was drafted by the Twins and played in the minors!" Yes, there are players like Albert Pujols, but they're ultra rare. Here's an article about the best players drafted in each round after 5, by WAR. Zero of the players listed were drafted in the past 17 years. https://www.mlb.com/news/best-late-round-picks-in-draft-history/c-182980276 So while I'm still angered by MLB's actions and lobbying in this case, when the signing bonuses are considered, I'm a lot less sympathetic to the overall plight of 95% of MiLB players. It's not as outrageous as it seemed.

Kepler had only a 40 point OPS spread between RH and LH pitchers for his last two full seasons in the minors, but lefties have definitely owned him at the MLB level. His BABIP would get a lot of help if he stopped popping the ball up as much, and with Kepler's eye at the plate, it's something I think he could work on with learning which pitches lead him to pop the ball up. Kepler still reminds me of a somewhat less talented version of Joe Mauer at the plate, but Kepler may wind up delivering more pop, which will be necessary to remain a starter at a non-premium defensive position.

I don't think many of the recent posts are actually pertinent to the original topic. Arguing MiLB players shouldn't be better compensated because MLB players (who have 100% of the power in the union) have enormous compensation levels isn't on topic. Arguing you work 60-80hrs a week where you aren't appropriately compensated for that work, you don't switch employers, you don't choose to cut back to a reasonable work life balance and you don't demand more compensation doesn't have any relevance in regard to MiLB players working for under minimum wage. Simply because other problems in the world exist doesn't mean MiLB players should have their ability to even TRY to fight for LEGALLY REQUIRED compensation stripped from them. I think the big relevant point is the draft pick slot money and bonus pools for teams. No pick in the 10 rounds of the MLB draft in 2017 signed for less than a $131,100 bonus. That will carry you quite a ways even if you were to consider losing out on scholarships. For the un-drafted free agents who sign MiLB contracts, they're also usually also commanding big signing bonuses.

This is exactly what I'm talking about... a19 - 8 PA, .600 BABIP a24 - 177 PA, .391 BABIP a25 - 22 PA, .357 BABIP a25 - 195 PA, .389 BABIP (here's where he stops being a legit prospect and nearly loses rookie status) a26 - 37 PA, .267 BABIP a27 - 44 PA, .308 BABIP Career MLB 517 PA, .276 BABIP, driven down by his very high pop-up rate. His AAA BABIP is inflated. His last two seasons at AAA, in admitted very small sample sizes, have been similar to his MLB BABIP and Adrianza has a batting average more similar to his MLB career line as a result. It seems unreasonable to look at his AAA stats without a large dose of skepticism, especially given his inability to impress at other MiLB levels and his terrible hitting at the MLB level. In regard to the criticism of Escobar's abilities at SS, he's got a career 0.3 UZR/150 line in 2,363 innings, largely hurt only by a rough 2016. Escobar was billed as a slick fielding SS with the potential his bat could play with a little time. His bat now plays, and while he doesn't have the full speed and range he did a couple years ago, but he's got what it takes to put together an above average fielding (not great or elite) season at SS if the Twins decide to let him. Some links with scouting information and expectations for Escobar. http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/eduardo-escobar/ https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2015/09/eduardo-escobar-can-be-twins-shortstop-solution-if-they-let-him https://minnesota.sbnation.com/minnesota-twins/2012/7/28/3199423/francisco-liriano-minnesota-twins-trade-chicago-white-sox-eduardo-escobar In summary, I don't believe you've done much research on the subject and maybe formed some opinions based on what you've heard people say off the cuff. I could be mistaken, but I don't find anything to suggest your opinion on either subject is particularly well anchored.

Yeah, it's pretty abominable. Truly disgusting. MLB is basically trying to lobby congress for the exemption so they can avoid MiLB players having even have an opportunity to challenge the abusive pay structure. https://www.abc15.com/newsy/mlb-could-reportedly-get-a-special-exemption-in-congress-spending-bill

Adrianza can not and will not hit. He's a utility infielder until he loses a step. He has a career wRC+ of 76 and has never even flashed an upside bat at the MLB level. His best stint, ever, was a 20 plate appearance rookie cup of coffee in 2013 where he registered a wRC+ of 100. His AAA numbers are incredibly easy to ignore. His age and far too high BABIP inflated the numbers. The idea Adrianza can or will turn a corner is just random player affection. Adrianza does bring a potentially very good glove. How good? Tough to say as he's only had 500 career MLB innings at short stop and his fielding percentage is lower than Escobar's. In regard to Escobar, he's an above average fielding short stop, and I don't get why people continue to lose sight of this. It's practically conspiracy level at this point, haha. The Twins haven't disliked Escobar's glove at SS, they've liked his utility everywhere else as they've used him as defensive duct tape to hold the roster together as needed. If Escobar had been used as a shortstop instead of everything and the kitchen sink, I think it's likely he would be looking forward to a big pay day in 2019 already. In summary, there is no way in hell Adrianza pushes or challenges Escobar at shortstop. The two players are in entirely different leagues. Adrianza is a utility AAAA infielder who's all glove and can serve as a defensive replacement or an occasional breather. Escobar is a potential 3 WAR starting MLB shortstop. Whether Escobar ends up playing shortstop seems more likely to rely upon Sano's potential suspension.

Suarez may not be "elite"; however, he certainly impressed last season and has a ceiling of perennial All Star. He was signed out of Venezuela at age 16 or 17 and rose through the farms systems quickly and consistently. He made his MLB debut with the Tigers at age 22 and showed good glove work and raw talent. So while he might not have been as highly touted when signed, the league certainly recognizes his talents at this point. Now Suarez just wrapped up two consecutive full seasons at the MLB level at age 25-26 at the 2-4 WAR-ish level. His bat is coming around and he's improved at taking walks and selecting good pitches to hit all while showing sustainability at 3B with plus defense. Suarez still has some projectability and could very well end up in that 3-4+ WAR average season range. Sano's CEILING is probably in the 4-5 WAR range IF he's able to stick at 3B. It's probably 4 WAR if he has to move to 1B or DH. So Sano has a perennial All Star ceiling, but he'll never compete for an MVP and it's highly unlikely he'll ever be an "elite" player at this point. If the Twins wanted to take an enormous gamble and lock Sano up, I expect they should be able to do it for something similar, but Sano's ego might get in the way. Buxton is a different story. He's already got a 4-5ish WAR season under his belt and his bat really showed up in the last half of the season. He plays elite defense at a premium defensive position and has a perennial MVP ceiling at this point. He would cost dramatically more to lock up, but I don't think there's a good reason for the Twins to try until after this season.

The owners are spending. These are the median opening day payrolls in the league over the past 10 years. Based on this information, median payroll increase a cumulative average annual increase of 4.6%, and 7.6% over the past 5 years. 2008 - $81M 2009 - $82M 2010 - $84M 2011 - $87M 2012 - $88M 2013 - $91M 2014 -$107M 2015 -$115M 2016 -$116M 2017 - $127M http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm The owners are spending, but this year's free agent crop was exceedingly poor with next year's potentially being epic. While you'll get no argument from me more money should be paid to younger players, the competitive balance rules aren't going anywhere and they shouldn't. None of the 4 major sports have more competitive balance than baseball. All teams in baseball need to rebuild from time to time.

Sano is heavier, shorter and arguably slower than Kennys Vargas. I'm not joking or exaggerating. Statcast's 2017 sprint speed has Sano at 26.9mph and Vargas at 26.6mph. Vargas has dropped weight and worked on his conditioning. Sano has gained and not been working out. Would anybody here suggest moving Kennys Vargas to 3B? I've never seen Vargas throw so I don't know as Vargas has a cannon arm or anything, but lets be realistic of Sano's potential to play a full season at 3B without dropping 50lbs regardless of whether or not a fan watching a video thinks Sano looks good or is hiding his weight well.

Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners for 10 years and $240M at age 31 going in to 2014, but Cano did have a bit more ceiling and a better track record. Dozier isn't going to get close to that, but it's hard to argue Dozier isn't a premier player. 2B hasn't been a high demand spot, but Dozier is the second best 2B in MLB over the past 3 years, and he gives a 2.5 WAR upgrade over other "good" 2B options. That's a hell of a lot. I'd be surprised if Dozier didn't command a 3-5 year contract at $75-100M.

There is no collusion. You have a bunch of agents thirsty for their next paycheck, but not a great deal of talent to sell. Agents have become accustomed to mega deals for the top free agents, but this year's talent pool was dry. Agents were still selling mediocre JAG players as if they were cornerstones for playoff teams for the next 5 years. Case in point. Mike Moustakas. A mediocre player. Solid defender, but with only one really great year in 2015. He's a 2 WAR player. Estimates ranged up to $100M for him, and Boras wanted 6-7 years and up to $125M if I remember. The guys this year... they're just not very good and they're asking for elite money because even though they're not that great, they're the best available.

Sano isn't the 3rd baseman of the future unless something dramatic happens. Escobar isn't the 3rd baseman of the future. Love him, but not at 3rd with his bat. Gordon at SS is superior to Polanco at SS. Polanco has some potential to replace a lot of Dozier's bat and add superior defense at 2B There isn't anybody in MiLB who is an obvious solution for 3rd base n the next year or two. Dozier's going to decline. He keeps defying all logic, but for the next few years, I could see him compensating for a bit of a weaker arm with superior range at 3rd base and his bat would play there. Mauer probably isn't the solution at 3rd. His cannon arm is wasted at 1B, but his speed is on the decline and asking him to just learn a completely new, and this time more difficult, position seems like a tall order. Maybe the Twins are just in the position where there are too many pieces moving to make a big commitment to Dozier.

Other costs include operating facilities, front office employees, scouting, minor league teams, marketing, draft bonuses, and a huge host of other operational expenses. Pohlad indicated he said from a cash flow perspective, the Twins would be lucky to break even in 2017. Forbes reported they think Operating Income (essentially positive cash flow) was $30M last year. That said, profitability from the franchises has a lot more to do with franchise value as businesses NEVER report profits and losses based solely on cash flow. P&L is based on growth of value combined with cash flow. For the Twins, Forbes estimated a $115M increase in value and a $30M operating income for a total profit of $145M for 2017. In regard to the Twins' potential revenue, a better product on the field makes an immense impact on revnue. The Royals had a revenue of $161M in 2012. Then, as the team began to perform, revenue grew, and after their World Series appearance in 2014 it skyrocketed from $178M to $231M in 2015, then to $273M in 2016. Yes, the ROYALS had significantly higher revenues than the Twins. What did the Royals do with that revenue? They reinvested it to grow the fan base and revenue pool. The Twins have not been willing to do that, instead being more focused on ensuring cash flow stability and positive operating income.

I'm awfully confused as to why Joe's concussion from 5 seasons ago has any relevance today or why anybody is still really talking about it. You know, aside from the disappointment at the potential loss of an obvious first ballot HoF career.

My point is about how expensive it would be to lock Buxton up long term including securing multiple free agency years right now. I don't think the Twins risk much by letting Buxton play another full season as a "prove it" campaign. because I don't think Buxton's agent would want Byron to accept a low ball offer like Span took.

The Twins have run under 48% opening day payroll for the past decade except one season. Revenue vs. Opening Day Payroll. 2009 - $162M vs. $66M = 41% 2010 - $213M vs. $97M = 46% 2011 - $213M vs. $113M = 53% 2012 - $214M vs. $94M = 44% 2013 - $221M vs. $76M = 34% 2014 - $223M vs. $86M = 39% 2015 - $240M vs. $109M = 45% 2016 - $249M vs. $108M = 43% 2017 - $249M vs. $108M = 43% 2018 - $249M? vs. $118M = 47% Revenue from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/196669/revenue-of-the-minnesota-twins-since-2006/ and https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/ Payroll from: http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2016_payroll At this point, with this owner, I think it's unreasonable to expect the Twins to approached the expected target for MLB team expenditures.

Aside from Buxton's arbitration eligible years, I don't see any reasonable arguments behind the Twins trying to buy out free agent years from Buxton. Buxton will hit free agency at age 28 as things stand. He'll be starting his absolute prime and earlier than 30. If Buxton manages to take the step forward his ceiling suggests he could, he's going to be one of the, if not the, highest paid player in baseball. Think 8-10 years and $360-400 million for his contract. Buying out a couple years of his free agency until age 30 would potentially depress his hypothetical contract a lot, and Buxton and his agent know that so it's going to cost the Twins a LOT. So if the Twins want to pay $20-25M per year for a couple years, they could probably get it done. So for next year assume 3 years arbitration at an average of $15M per year, plus 2 years at $25M and you could probably sign Buxton for 5 more years at a cost of $95M-ish. For a player that has 1/2 a season of eye opening performance, I think that's a crazy risk.

That's now how arbitration works. Arbitration does consider a player's last season, but it also looks at his track record. The first year of arbitration is when the baseline pay gets set. Because Buxton has almost no track record of high level performance, it would kill his arbitration value this year (he's not eligible until next year). If Buxton rakes this year, then he's got some track record to fall back on, then things could get interesting. As a side note, you're seriously undervaluing Betts.

I'm not sure how Betts and Buxton are remotely comparable. fWAR - Betts vs. Buxton 2014 - 1.8 vs. N/A 2015 - 4.9 vs. (0.6) 2016 - 7.9 vs. 1.7 2017 - 5.3 vs. 3.5 rWAR - Betts vs. Buxton 2014 - 2.1 vs. N/A 2015 - 6.0 vs. 0.2 2016 - 9.5 vs. 1.9 2017 - 6.4 vs. 5.1 Betts has been far and away the superior player. Betts has put up 3 potentially MVP caliber seasons in a row and was always a stud. Buxton has 1 All-Star-ish season and was a middling to poor player for his first 2 years even with elite defense at a premium position. Buxton has an exceptional ceiling, no doubt, but so does Royce Lewis... In any case, Buxton hasn't proven himself except for a single 200 plate appearance stint last year. From August 1st on, while on fire, Buxton still didn't walk (5.3%) and still struck out a lot (27.6%). I'd rather the Twins get another "Prove It" season from Buxton this year before locking him up to what will be a big contract because Buxton's agent isn't going to let the Twins off with a huge discount off his potential. Buxton's arbitration value will be dramatically lower than Betts as Buxton's track record will work against him in a major way. If the Twins wanted to extend Buxton through his arbitration eligible years, 5yrs, $30M-40M is where it should land. If Buxton has a great season this year, it would be 4yrs, $50-60M. There's just not much risk of letting him play it out vs. if he tanks at the plate again.

Odorizzi's FIP and xFIP from 8/9 on? 4.78 and 5.36, respectively. He got lucky despite an eye opening 4.89 BB/9 and .202 BABIP. If Odorizzi pitches like he did from 8/9 on, it's likely he'll be a non-tender candidate after this year.

Chargois is healthy. According to him, there is no medical issue, and it was just a mechanical issue with his follow through which HE found after his release. Twins trainers and medical staff were apparently unable to figure the issue out. https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/23/once-touted-reliever-j-t-chargois-lost-on-waivers-to-dodgers/ This was a huge failure. It doesn't matter if the first team claimed Chargois or the last team. The Twins were purposely coy about Chargois' health and it's not like Chargois has a screaming hot pedigree around the league. Teams are busy with free agents, their own rosters and Spring Training. The Twins gambled with a healthy, very talented, high ceiling arm. It was stupid and they got burned.

I see a lot of the same arguments which I don't feel have a great deal of merit. The concepts that body types or genetics have a significant impact on weight hasn't been founded in science based on any articles or papers I've read about. The idea somebody can be 6'4" and ripped at 290-300 lbs isn't realistic. Even a natural bodybuilder won't weigh more than 240-260 lbs at Miguel Sano's height. Hrbek was used as an example of how a poorly conditioned 1B can still be effective, but Hrbek never exceeded about 250 lbs and once Hrbek hit that weight, his performance tanked and he started getting hurt a lot. Hrbek's best years were played under 240 lbs. Ortiz was a DH and a far superior hitter than Sano. Ortiz capped out around 270 lbs before he began to lighten up and played his final years around 230lbs. Prince Fielder, who was a far superior hitter to Sano, played at a max of 275 lbs (though 4" shorter than Sano) and his weight ended his elite bat at age 28 and chased him from the game entirely at age 32. Ryan Howard maxed out at 275 lbs and wanted to play at 235 lbs so he could increase his value. The history is long and well documented on this issue. Sano will be at his best playing at UNDER 240 lbs. Playing at 235 will not hurt Sano's power. It will increase Sano's bat speed. It will increase Sano's sprint speed. It will increase Sano's range. It will improve Sano's durability. It will improve Sano's endurance. While Sano may be able to continue to crush baseballs at 290lbs, his average and on base percentage will be significantly lower and his value in the field will be wiped out as a result. Sano continuing to play at extreme weights will kill his value to the Twins as a player or a trade candidate and it WILL end his career maybe even 10 years early. I'd like Sano to play the best he can for the Twins or whatever team he winds up with long term if not the Twins. I'd like him to maximize his value for my favorite baseball team. If he wants to eat his way to 400+ lbs, that's his prerogative. I won't be upset or dislike him or do anything other than wish him well for it. If he's happy, that's great. All that aside, he won't be nearly as good as he could have been or nearly as valuable to the Twins as he could have been.

From 2013 - Sano reported to camp at 238, said his ideal weight was 229. That's a year after he reported he was 218lbs, which was his ideal weight in 2012... http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/9239068/top-twins-prospect-miguel-sano-starring-documentary My experience is it doesn't matter if I prove Sano's quotes or facts related to the position. It's always hard to pull up articles and find them from 2012 etc. Sano was 16 and 6'3" 190lbs. Then he was 195. Then he was 220, then 230, then 260, then 290... The entire time, he was showing elite power. Elite athletes who are stronger, faster, quicker and need size more than Sano tip the scales at 240-250lbs with Sano's height. NFL tight ends and linebackers, for example. Sano is absolutely carrying around no less than 60-80lbs of unnecessary fat right now. If you don't believe it because his body distributes the weight well, then, you don't have to. I can't force you to agree with me. Heck, maybe I'm wrong despite what seems like pretty logical comparisons and quotes I've been able to find from interviews with Sano.

I can't get around how people defend Sano's weight. Sano has been on the record in years past indicating his ideal weight was 218 and 230 when he was showing elite power already. It seems Sano believes his ideal weight is whatever he weighs at any given time. Physical fitness (of which weight is often closely related) directly corresponds to performance. Hitting a baseball a long way isn't all Sano has to do. Sano has to react to the pitch, make adjustments to his body positioning to square pitches up, maintain flexibility, and often run flat out to the next base. He's supposed to be a third baseman, which requires fast reflexes, the ability to cover ground in a short period of time, pivot and throw off balance. Miguel Sano is paid to be an athlete, not just some guy on a bush league softball team who can send a ball flying if he actually connects. I saw comments about Hrbek in here. Hrbek was as tall as Sano and played his best under 240lbs... with his weight ballooning to somewhere near 250 as his production tanked and his injuries mounted. Morneau in his prime was at 220-230lbs. Jim Thome was a really big guy, but he played at 250lbs at the end of his career. Miguel Sano is 290-300lbs. Sano is carrying an 80lb package of shingles of extra fat around with him every step he takes. It adversely impacts his defensive value, how likely he is to be injured and most if not every aspect of his hitting other than pure power.